前期探低2100点后启动的短暂反弹行情，曾一度为市场带来“希望”。然而，指数勉强站上7月23日形成的跳空缺口后，涨势再次被8月13日的“黑色星期一”终结。随着7月宏观数据的出台，市场对数据的解读所释放出来的信息均是“降准降息”有望成真，按常理应该是利多市场，然而，市场缘何又失去了反弹动力呢？

The exploratory low 2100 points after a short rallies start，Once bringing to the market“hope”。however，Index force on July 23 formed after the jump opening the mouth，Rise was again on August 13th“Black Monday”end。Along with the July macro data come on stage，Market for data interpretation of releasing the information are“Drop must cut interest rates”Is expected to come true，According to the common sense should be more than the market，however，Why the market and lose rebound? Power？

　　2012年7月份，全国居民消费价格总水平（CPI）同比上涨1.8%，继续延续下探趋势。虽然最终公布的CPI数据略高于此前预测，但7月CPI依旧降至两年半来新低。且结合历史数据来看，CPI已经连续四个月下跌。一定程度上显示之前的政策调控已见成效，通胀进入尾声。

In July 2012，The national consumer the general price level（CPI）Rose 1.8% year-on-year，Continue to continue dipped below trend。Although the final CPI data released by the slightly higher than previously forecast，But on July CPI still down to two and a half years to new lows。And with historical data to see，CPI consecutive four months down。To a certain extent, shows the policy regulation and control before has paid off，Inflation come to an end。

　　7月份PPI同比降低2.9%，环比降低0.8%，1-7月平均同比下降1.0%。在投资和进出口方面，工业增加值连续第三个月放缓，较去年同期上涨9.2%，创下2009年5月以来的最低纪录；7月零售额增速也有所放缓，同比增长13.1%，创下2011年3月以来的17个月新低。种种数据进一步确认了工业盈利能力不佳、经济乏力的现状，为政府推出更多经济刺激政策打开了空间，但放松的具体方式则未必通过降准降息。

July PPI reduced by 2.9% year-on-year，Link reduced by 0.8%，1-7 is mean monthly 1.0% year-on-year drop。In the investment and import and export aspect，Industrial added value for the third consecutive months slowdown，Compared to the same period last year rose 9.2%，In 2009, the lowest since may record；July retail sales growth is slowing，Year-on-year growth of 13.1%，A record 2011 years since March 17 months low。A variety of data further confirmed that industry profitability is not good、The present situation of the economic weakness，For the government to introduce more economic stimulus policy opens the space，But the specific way to relax is not through the drop must cut interest rates。

　　7月末外汇占款余额为25.6575万亿元，自去年10月底时隔4年转为减少以来，增速放缓迹象日趋明显。由于外汇占款减少，中国国内流动的资金量有所减少，降准预期不断增强。然而，央行连续逆回购已经大幅缓解了外汇占款减少引起的流动性偏紧问题。

By the end of July funding of foreign exchange balance is 25.6575 trillion yuan，Since last October after four years since to reduce，Growth is slowing more obvious signs。Due to the funding of reduce foreign exchange，China's domestic flow of financing volume decreased，Drop must enhance expected。however，The central bank continuous reverse repurchase has greatly alleviated the funding of foreign exchange to reduce liquidity caused by partial tight problem。

　　去年11月、今年1月和4月的M2同比增速分别为12.7%、12.4%和12.8%，央行于数据公布的当月(分别对应去年12月及今年2月、5月)下调存准。结合6月份货币增速13.6%的情形及7月降准预期迟迟被搁置的情形来看，只要货币供应增速不显著低于政策目标14%的水平，央行降准可能性不大。8月10日公布的M2同比数据为13.9%，依然符合14%的政策目标，放松政策推出的可能性大打折扣。

Last November、In January and April's M2 year-on-year growth was 12.7%、12.4% and 12.8%，The central bank in data released during the month(Corresponding last December and February、may)Cut deposit must。Combined with June monetary growth 13.6% of cases and July drop quasi expectations can be shelved rate，As long as the money supply growth not significantly lower than the level of the policy target of 14%，The central bank drop quasi unlikely。August 10, M2 announced year-on-year data is 13.9%，Still accord with 14% of the policy target，Relax policy launched a possibility。

　　另外，目前CPI和PPI的差距进一步被拉大，加上近期农产品价格异动，投资者对后续CPI能否持续维持低位产生一定的分歧，同时增加了市场对滞胀风险的担忧，增加了政策调控的顾虑。

In addition，At present the CPI and PPI gap is further widening，With the recent agricultural prices moved，Investors on subsequent CPI can continue to maintain low produce certain differences，At the same time increase the market risk to stagflation concern，Increase the regulation policy concerns。

　　尽管降准降息并不针对房地产，然而，上半年连续两次降息，对房地产市场带来很大的影响，楼市从5月份以来出现了连续的量价齐升之势。楼市回暖引起政府关注，令放松政策延迟或者选用其他替代方式。

Although drop must not cut interest rates for the real estate，however，Two consecutive times in the first half to cut interest rates，On the real estate market brought a lot of influence，From the property market may appear since the continuous JiSheng of quantity and price of the potential。The property market milder cause government attention，To relax policy delay or choose other alternatives。

　　随着频繁的逆回购打压降准降息预期，再加上降准降息可能给房地产调控带来副作用，再次令降准降息预期持续降温。但依然存在的降准降息预期将有望降低后市股指下跌的空间，但指数短期依然弱势难改。

With the frequent reverse repurchase pressure drop must cut interest rates expected，Plus drop must cut interest rates likely to bring real estate regulation side effects，Once again cut interest rates expected to drop must have continued to weaken。But still exist drop must cut interest rates expected market outlook is expected to reduce the stock index falling space，But the index short-term still weak difficult to change。