本报记者 王继高

Our reporter WangJiGao

　　经历了短期的反弹之后，上周沪深两市弱势震荡，上证综指下跌了2.49%，深证成指下跌3.84%，两市成交量未能有效放大，市场信心依旧偏弱。经济探底的时间可能相对较长，短期内弱市行情恐难改变。

Experience the short-term rebound later，Last week, Shanghai or shenzhen, two cities disadvantaged concussion，The Shanghai composite index dropped by 2.49%，Shenzhen stock exchange ChengZhi fell 3.84%，Two city turnover has failed to effectively amplification，Market confidence is still weak。The bottom of the economic agent time may be relatively long，In the short term weak market quotation fear of difficult to change。

　　经济底仍待确认 Economic bottom is still to be confirmed

　　“无论是从实体经济供给和需求，还是从流动性层面来看，目前宏观经济短期是否触底仍需等待确认，保存实力、积极防御是当前的最优策略。”广发基金近期发布的策略报告称，供给方面去库存已经接近尾声，需求层面寄望于政策放松下的基建投资反弹和房地产投资反弹，流动性上则是降息导致的信贷需求改善。

“Whether from the entity economic supply and demand，Or the liquidity level，At present the macro economy in the short term is sole still waiting for confirmation，conserve、Active defense is the current optimal strategy。”Guangdong development fund recently released report says the strategy，Supply to inventory, is coming to its close，Demand level hope in the policy relaxation of infrastructure investment and real estate investment rally rebound，Liquidity is to cut interest rates on credit demand improve。

　　在此基础上，广发基金旗下多位基金经理对近期的宏观经济持中性判断。广发稳健(270002,基金吧)成长基金经理李琛对本报记者称，从上市公司半年报的业绩来看，大部分企业都低于预期，这反映出这些企业盈利对经济的敏感度非常高，也说明大部分企业的抗风险能力较差。从目前的情形来看，并没有企业盈利止跌回升的迹象。广发策略优选(270006,基金吧)基金经理冯永欢、广发大盘成长(270007,基金吧)基金经理许雪梅等则认为，经济仍处在惯性下滑中，只有看到中长期贷款和投资的抬头才是短期经济回升的标志性指标。行业配置上，广发基金指出，以需求相对稳定的医药、食品饮料、品牌服装、龙头家电、电力等内需行业为主；与7月相比，考虑增加电力配置，降低地产、非银金融、化工等行业的配置。

On the basis of，Guangdong development fund more than its fund manager for the recent macroeconomic holding a neutral judge。Guangdong development steady(270002,Fund it)Growing fund manager LiChen to our reporter said，Half of the annual report from listed company performance to see，Most of the enterprise are lower than expected，This reflects the enterprise profit to the sensitivity of the economy is very high，Also shows that most enterprise risk resistance ability is bad。From the current situation to see，And no reason corporate profits rebounded signs。Guangdong development strategy optimization(270006,Fund it)The fund manager FengYongHuan、Guangdong development grail growth(270007,Fund it)The fund manager XuXueMei etc, think，The economy is still in inertia in decline，Only see long-term and medium-term loans and investment looked up short-term economic rebound is the symbol of the index。Industry configuration，Guangdong development fund pointed out that，To demand a relatively stable medicine、Food and beverage、Brand clothing、Leading home appliance、Electric power industries such as domestic demand；Compared with July，Consider increase power configuration，Reduce real estate、Not silver financial、The configuration of chemical industry, etc。

　　“7月数据显示，当前通胀无忧，经济在底部徘徊，政策下一步的重点仍是稳增长。”申银万国的研报称。

“July data display，The current inflation worry about，The economy in the bottom of wandering，The focus of the next step policy is still stable growth。”All the kingdoms of the earth ShenYin research reports。

　　海富通基金认为，从目前的经济环境来看，预计本轮经济探底的时间可能相对较长；在缺乏政策外力影响的条件下，市场僵局可能较难打破。

Fortis haitong fund think，From the current economic environment to see，This round of economic agent is expected to bottom of time may be relatively long；In the absence of policy under the condition of external influence，The market may be more difficult to break the deadlock。

　　反弹信号已现？ Rebound signal has now？

　　“市场创出近三年的新低，投资者出现恐慌甚至绝望的情绪，虽然目前A股面临着考验，但也存在机遇。”农银深证100(159901,基金吧)指数基金拟任基金经理宋永安在接受本报记者采访时称，“A股的表现已经过度反应了市场对经济的担忧，股市不会一直在"过度"中延续，总会出现估值修复的过程。”

“The market makes a new low of nearly three years，Investors appear panic and despair，Although the a-share facing test，But there are also opportunities。”Agriculture silver shenzhen stock exchange 100(159901,Fund it)Index funds aspiring fund managers SongYongAn in accepting our newspaper reporter to interview said，“The performance of the A shares have been excessive reaction to the market economic concerns，The stock market will not have been"excessive"Continuation in，There is always valuation repair process。”

　　宋永安认为市场反弹的信号已经较为明显。首先，从经济层面来看，国内外的趋势都已经在逐步转好。美国经济持续复苏，经济数据趋好；欧洲各国在博弈后，对欧债危机的解决方式渐趋一致。国内经济增速下滑后，政策更加倾向于稳增长。在降息和降低存款准备金率之下，资金面已经逐渐改善，企业盈利在二季度见底后将逐步提升；房地产销售逐步回暖，对地产投资也无须像之前那么悲观，这些因素都是股市向上的推动力。

SongYongAn thinks that the market rebound signal has more obvious。First of all，From the economic aspect，The trend of home and abroad has been gradually turned for the better。The United States sustained economic recovery，Economic data up and up；European countries after the game，To the debt crisis solution gradually consistent。The domestic economic growth after the decline，Policy more tend to stable growth。In the interest rate cuts and reduce the deposit reserve rate under，Financing area has been gradually improved，Corporate profits in the second quarter after see bottom will be promoted step by step；Real estate sales gradually warmer，For real estate investment also do not need to be pessimistic as before，All of these factors is the stock market up driving force。

　　其次，A股估值也处在历史底部。Wind数据显示，当前A股的整体估值是14倍，接近历史底部区域；深证100指数市盈率为17.48倍，也处于较低的位置。

secondly，A share valuations also in historical bottom。Wind data display，The current a-share overall valuation is 14 times，Close to the bottom area of the history；Shenzhen stock exchange 100 index p/e ratio is 17.48 times，Also at a lower position。

　　此外，在机构动向方面，产业资本已经在逆市增持。产业资本在5月斥资33.57亿元净增持53家公司，6月至8月也不断传出上市公司大股东增持的消息。此外，社保等机构资金也开始进场，这些往往都是市场转向的“前期信号”。

In addition，In the institutions in trend，Industrial capital has been in inverse around the city。Industrial capital on May spend a net increase of 3.357 billion yuan a 53 companies，June to August also unceasingly spreads big shareholders of listed companies for the additional information。In addition，Institutions such as social security funds also began to approach，These often are the turning of the market“Prophase signal”。

　　市场弱势或短期难改 Market weakness or short-term difficult to change

　　国金证券(600109,股吧)认为，整体来看近期市场对消息较为敏感，波动相对较大，而且是以个股行情为主，热点转换频繁。市场整体性机会仍将仍受制于经济基本面下滑，但从估值来看，股指再度下跌的空间不大，预计仍将维持震荡格局。

Countries gold securities(600109,guba)think，The whole recent market is very sensitive to the news，Relatively large fluctuations，And based on stocks market is given priority to，Hot conversion frequent。Market integrity opportunity will still still subject to decline economic fundamentals，But see from the valuation，Stock index fell again of the space is not large，Still expected to maintain concussion pattern。

　　“从量化分析角度来看，市场情绪指标表现较强，公司估值及盈利质量的指标则表现欠佳。这显示出上周的反弹可能是由市场情绪主导的超跌反弹，与基本面关系不大。”特许价值基金经理胡俊敏对本报记者分析称，“目前A股的估值仍处于低位，而且低于欧美市场，这和A股双位数的盈利增长预测形成对比，结合宏观刺激政策的效果和管理层稳增长的决心来看，公司对市场仍持谨慎乐观的态度。”

“From the view of the quantitative analysis，Market sentiment index to be strong，Company valuations and earnings quality index is poor performance。This shows that last week's rebound may be the market sentiment leading ultra fall rebound，And the fundamental concern is not big。”Franchise value HuJunMin fund manager to our reporter analysis says，“At present A share valuations are still in A low level，And in fact, lower than the European and American market，This and A shares double digit earnings growth forecasts form contrast，Combining macroscopic stimulus policy effect and management firm growth determination to see，Company to market is still cautiously optimistic。”

　　德圣基金研究中心发给本报记者的最新研报称，IPO的速度减缓以及预审的暂停或许是近期最能安慰投资者信心的消息了，但大量的解禁股又使得资金裹足不前，市场在这种角力中反复震荡，“我们对市场依旧保持谨慎的看法，弱势行情下仓位已不是那么重要，建议关注业绩先经济周期走出低谷的个股。”

DE SAN fund research center to our reporter reports the latest research，The speed of the IPO slow and preliminary examination of the suspension is perhaps the most recent can comfort investor confidence of the news，But a lot of lift the ban shares and make money rush in where angels fear to tread，The market in the wrestling repeatedly concussion，“Our market is still remain cautious view，Under the weak market position is not so important，Suggestions focus on performance first economic cycle went out of whack stocks。”