——利率市场化、汇率机制改革、资本账户开放与人民币国际化

- interest rate marketization、Exchange rate mechanism reform、Capital account liberalization and RMB internationalization

　　文/胡少华

Text/HuShaoHua

　　编者提示：人民币国际化是一个长期的过程，尤其是在放开资本账户管制和人民币实现资本账户可兑换之前，人民币很难在国际贸易和金融活动中发挥重要的交易媒介和储备作用。但是，我们又不能等到利率市场化、汇率市场化、资本账户可兑换之后，才去推进人民币国际化，因为推进人民币国际化并非我们的主观臆想，而是顺应市场的客观需求。

Editor hint：RMB internationalization is a long-term process，Especially in the open capital account control and RMB realized capital account convertibility before，It is difficult to RMB in international trade and financial activities play an important medium of exchange and reserve role。but，And we can't wait for interest rate marketization、Rate marketization、After capital account convertibility，To promote RMB internationalization，Because propulsion RMB internationalization is not our subjective concoction，But conform to the objective market demand。

　　利率市场化、汇率形成机制改革、资本账户开放与人民币国际化是我国当前金融改革与开放的四个热点问题。利率市场化和汇率形成机制改革是我国金融改革的重要内容；资本账户开放和人民币国际化是我国金融开放的重要组成部分。它们四者的逻辑顺序如何？本文试图对这一问题进行探讨。

Interest rate marketization、Exchange rate formation mechanism reform、Capital account liberalization and RMB internationalization is China's current financial reform and open four hot issue。Interest rate marketization and RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform is the important content of China's financial reform；Capital account liberalization and RMB internationalization is the important part of the financial opening。They are the four logical order？This article attempts to this problem is discussed。

　　含义解析 Meaning analytic

　　利率市场化会使国内的利率逐渐由市场信贷的供需决定，从而使央行利率工具的传导更加有效。央行的货币政策工具可从依赖控制货币发行总量到调节利率为主。这种货币政策调控工具的变化也为人民币国际化奠定了基础。

Interest rate marketization will make domestic interest rates gradually by the market supply and demand of credit decision，So that the central bank interest rate tool conduction more effective。The central bank's monetary policy tool can from dependence on the control currency issuing amount to adjust interest rates is given priority to。This kind of monetary policy tool change also laid the foundation for RMB internationalization。

　　汇率形成机制改革是要增强汇率的灵活性，按照2011年央行货币政策执行报告的表述是：“继续按主动性、可控性和渐进性的原则，进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制，重在坚持以市场供求为基础，参考一篮子货币进行调节，增强人民币汇率弹性，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。”

The formation mechanism of exchange rate reform is to enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate，According to the 2011 years of the central bank's monetary policy implementation report of the statement is：“Continue according to the initiative、The principle of controllability and progressive，To further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism，Insist on based on market supply and demand，With reference to a basket of currencies regulation，Strengthen elasticity of RMB exchange rate，Keep the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level basically stable。”

　　资本账户开放是一国在国际往来中反映金融资产和负债变化的金融交易项目的开放。资本账户可兑换是指任意资本（无论投资国内资本市场还是国外资本市场），可以自由兑换成该国货币资本。根据国家外汇管理局（2009）的评估，在7大类40项资本项目交易中，中国有5项实行了可兑换，8项基本可兑换，17项部分可兑换，还有10项不可兑换。目前中国在借用外债、跨境证券投资和中资机构对外贷款、直接投资等重要资本项目上，仍然存在比较严格的管制。

Capital account liberalization is a country in the international activities reflect the financial assets and liabilities change of financial transaction project open。Capital account convertibility refers to any capital（No matter investment domestic capital market or foreign capital market），Can freely convertible into the country's monetary capital。According to the state administration of foreign exchange（2009）evaluation，In the 7 kinds of 40 items capital account transactions，China has five implemented convertible，Eight basic convertible，17 part convertible，There are ten irredeemable。China in the borrow foreign debt、Cross-border securities investment and domestic institutions foreign loans、Direct investment and other important capital projects，There are still compare strict control。

　　人民币国际化是要使人民币逐步成为贸易和资本项下的结算货币、金融交易项下的计价货币、国际储备项下的核心货币。人民币国际化是一个过程，是我国综合实力逐步提高的过程。

RMB internationalization is to make RMB gradually become a trade and capital of the settlement currency、Financial transactions under a currency valuation、The core of international reserves of money。RMB internationalization is a process，Is China's comprehensive strength gradually improve process。

　　利率市场化当前处于比较核心的地位 Interest rate marketization is currently in comparison the core status

　　在利率市场化、汇率形成机制改革、资本账户开放和人民币国际化中，利率市场化是重中之重。负利率的影响、民间高利率泛滥以及中小企业借款难等问题的叠加，导致2011年市场对利率市场化改革的呼声渐高，利率管制成为民间金融乱象的原因之一，这就要求利率市场化。利率市场化在我国当前处于一个比较核心的地位。

In the marketization of interest rate、Exchange rate formation mechanism reform、Capital account liberalization and the RMB internationalization，Interest rate marketization is the top priority。Firmly negative influence、Folk high interest rates and flood small and medium-sized enterprise loan difficult problems, such as the superposition，Lead to 2011 market interest rate marketization reform gradually high voice，Interest rate control become folk finance one of the reasons for the mess，This requires interest rate marketization。Interest rate marketization in China's current in a more core position。

　　为保证银行的“特许权价值”，利率市场化的排列顺序应该是贷款利率—长期存款利率—短期存款利率，这样利差才可以逐渐降低，同时，可以避免倒置收益曲线，避免借款的期限结构向短期靠拢。中国利率市场化改革经过10年的渐进过程，已完成贷款和短期市场利率的改革。下一步改革的核心是取消存款利率上限。这样可以让资金能够在金融体系中实现有效的流转，从而实现基于流动性、政策预期以及市场供需的市场利率体系。

In order to ensure the bank“Franchise value”，The order of the interest rate liberalization should be loan interest rates - long-term deposit interest rates - short-term deposit interest rates，Such interest margin can be gradually reduced，At the same time，Can avoid inverted yield curve，Avoid the loan term structure to short-term draw together。China's interest rate marketization reform after 10 years of gradual process，Has completed loans and short-term market interest rate reform。The next step is to cancel the core of reform of the deposit interest rate upper limit。This can make money in the financial system to realize effective circulation，So as to realize based on liquidity、Policy expected and market supply and demand of the market interest rate system。

　　人民币国际化要求资本账户开放 RMB internationalization requirements open capital account

　　人民币国际化的前提是人民币可以自由兑换，这意味着资本账户要开放。在目前资本账户还不能开放到位的情况下，建立人民币离岸市场是实现人民币国际化的重要一步。目前，人民币离岸市场最适合的地点是香港。2010年，香港金管局与中国人民银行关于人民币离岸中心建设的相关文件，为香港迅速确立人民币离岸中心地位提供了条件。过去的一年半时间，香港人民币存款上升了数十倍，并超过6000亿元，尽管这一数字与境内人民币存量相比，规模仍然偏小，但不可否认，香港人民币业务开始吸引更多的投资者和参与者，很多银行也将跨境人民币业务作为未来业务发展的重点之一。

RMB internationalization is the premise of the RMB can freely convertible，This means that the capital account to open。In the present capital account can't open in the case，To establish an offshore RMB market is an important step to realize the internationalization of RMB。At present，The RMB off-shore market the most suitable location is Hong Kong。In 2010,，Hong Kong the hkma and the people's bank of China on an offshore RMB centre construction of relevant documents，For Hong Kong quickly establish an offshore RMB centre provides conditions。The past one and a half years time，Hong Kong RMB deposit up dozens of times，And more than 600 billion yuan，Although this digital and domestic RMB than stock，Has remained small，But there is no denying the，RMB business in Hong Kong began to attract more investors and participants，Many Banks will also cross-border RMB business as one of the focal points of future business development。

　　在资本项目开放的情况下，国际资本流动的变化将可能导致国内资本市场和宏观经济的较大波动。此外，国内债券市场发展滞后还可能导致资本项目开放后国内企业倾向于在海外发债融资，增加了债务的货币和期限错配的可能性。资本市场开放需要利率市场化的配套改革，如果利率没有由市场决定，则有可能大幅偏离市场均衡水平，最终诱发大规模的跨境资本流动，冲击经济与金融的稳定。

In the capital project open cases，The change of international capital flows will probably lead to the domestic capital market and macroeconomic larger fluctuation。In addition，The domestic bond market development lag may also lead to capital project after open domestic enterprises tend to overseas FaZhai financing，Increased debt money and time limit the possibility of mismatch。Capital market opening need interest rate marketization reform，If interest rates not decided by the market，Have the potential to significantly deviate from the market equilibrium level，Eventually cause large-scale cross-border capital flows，Impact of economic and financial stability。

　　资本项目开放本身就是我国金融开放的重要内容，而利率市场化和人民币国际化都会促进我国金融开放。实现人民币资本项目可兑换将有利于我们更有效地利用国内、国外两个市场和配置国内、国外两种资源，是实现“走出去”战略的重要保证。目前，中国资本账户开放已取得较大进展。

Capital project open itself is the important content of China's financial open，And the interest rate marketization and RMB internationalization will promote the financial opening。Make the yuan convertible under capital accounts will benefit us more effective use of domestic、Foreign two markets and the configuration of the domestic、Foreign two kinds of resources，Is to realize“Go out”Strategy important guarantee。At present，China's capital account liberalization has made great progress。

　　汇率机制改革有利于促进人民币国际化 Exchange rate mechanism reform is beneficial for the promotion of RMB internationalization

　　币值稳定是人民币国际化的基础。币值稳定的含义有两层，一是对外币值稳定，即实际汇率稳定，人民币实际汇率不能有明显的升值或贬值趋势；二是对内币值稳定，即稳定且较低的通货膨胀率。对外与对内两方面的币值稳定联系在一起，相互影响。固定汇率本质上就是不稳的,两个国家的生产率进步不同，将持续改变两种货币的相对币值，任何事先确定的固定汇率水平都将随着时间的变化而出现币值扭曲。而且，由于生产率的变化难以预测，且难以迅速准确测量，人为制定一个汇率水平本来就是很难的事情。固定汇率的好处是汇价稳定，有利于促进国际贸易，坏处是由于汇价不能随时调整，过一段时间就可能会产生汇率扭曲。相比较而言，浮动汇率的好处是，市场可以汇集各种与币值有关的信息，不断调整汇价，防止汇率的过度偏离形成单边的升值或者贬值预期。浮动汇率付出的代价是汇价时刻都在波动当中，企业需要对冲外汇波动的风险。但是，正是这种时时刻刻的汇率管理，帮助汇价实现大方向上的稳定，从而实现人民币币值稳定。在人民币升值预期显著的情况下推动人民币国际化，不但会助长人民币升值预期的套利行为，造成币值升值的财务损失，而且不利于在长期内形成真正的人民币国际化。因此，汇率形成机制市场化改革有利于促进真正的人民币国际化。

Currency stability is the basis of RMB internationalization。The currency stable meaning have two layer，One is the foreign currency stable，That is the real exchange rate stability，RMB real exchange rate can not have obvious appreciation or depreciation trend；The second is the currency stable internal，That is stable and low inflation rate。Foreign and internal two aspects of the currency stable relates in together，Influence each other。Fixed exchange rate is essentially unstable,The two countries of different productivity progress，Will continue to change the relative value of two kinds of currency，Any prior certain fixed exchange rate level will be as the change of time and appear currency distortion。and，Due to the change of productivity is difficult to predict，And hard to quick and accurate measurement，People make a exchange rate was very difficult thing。The benefits of a fixed exchange rate is the rate stability，Is beneficial for the promotion of international trade，Harm is due to exchange rate can't adjust，Over a period of time may produce rate distortion。compared，The benefits of the floating exchange rate is，The market can gathers all kinds and currency related information，Constantly adjust rate，To prevent excessive deviation of the exchange rate appreciation or depreciation of the formation of unilateral expected。Floating exchange rate is the price of exchange rate fluctuations in moments of，The enterprise needs to hedge the risk of foreign exchange fluctuation。but，It is this hourly rate management，Help to realize the stability of the exchange rate on the way，So as to realize its currency stable。In the appreciation of the RMB expected significant cases promote RMB internationalization，Not only would embolden the appreciation of the renminbi expected arbitrage behavior，Currency appreciation caused by the financial loss，And in the long run to form the real RMB internationalization。therefore，The formation mechanism of exchange rate marketization reform to promote the real RMB internationalization。

　　在人民币国际化、资本项目开放的情况下，要求提高汇率的灵活性，以防止大量的资金流入、通胀压力和资产泡沫，最终逼迫人民币汇率大幅升值，导致对实体经济和金融业的巨大冲击。作为与美国经济周期非常不同的发展中大国，中国的货币政策必须要有充分的独立性，而由于在经济和金融全球化条件下资本管制必然失效，所以，从蒙代尔的“三角悖论”来说，我们也只能选择有弹性的汇率和开放的资本市场。在人民币单边升值趋势渐弱的大背景下，中国能够逐步获得货币政策的独立性，同时限制资本流动的必要性也开始降低，这为中国进一步推进资本账户开放提供了更好的机会。温州金融改革也提出了一系列鼓励资本外流的举措，近期的合格境外机构投资者（QFII）和人民币合格境外投资者（RQFII）额度大幅增加，也表明了鼓励资本“双向流动”的大方向。资本“双向流动”又需要资本账户的进一步开放和人民币的可自由兑换，同时资本“双向流动”对于人民币国际化意义深远。

In RMB internationalization、Under the condition of the open of capital items，For higher exchange rate flexibility，In order to prevent a large amount of capital inflows、Inflation pressure and asset bubble，Finally make RMB exchange rates to rise sharply，Lead to the real economy and the financial industry to the huge impact。As with the United States economic cycle very different developing country，China's monetary policy must have full independence，And because in the economic and financial globalization condition capital controls inevitable failure，so，From the mundell“Triangle paradox”for，We can only choose to have flexible exchange rate and the open of capital market。In the yuan appreciation of unilateral trend diminuendo background，China can gradually get the independence of monetary policy，At the same time limit the necessity of capital flow also begin to reduce，This for China to further its capital account liberalization provides a better chance。Wenzhou financial reform also puts forward a series of measures to encourage capital outflows，Recent qualified foreign institutional investors（QFII）And the yuan qualified foreign investors（RQFII）Limit increase，Also shows that encourage capital“Two-way flow”The general direction of。capital“Two-way flow”And need the further opening of capital account and the yuan convertible，At the same time, capital“Two-way flow”For RMB internationalization is of far-reaching significance。

　　此外，人民币国际化的长远目标是使人民币成为国际储备货币。基于储备货币的分散化原则，人民币与美元的相关性应大大减弱。如果人民币继续基本盯住美元，国际储备管理者将没有兴趣持有人民币。

In addition，RMB internationalization long-term goal is to make RMB become an international reserve currency。Based on the reserve currency diversification principle，The correlation of the yuan against the dollar should be greatly abate。If the yuan to continue basic pegged to the dollar，International reserve managers will not interested in holding RMB。

　　四者应交叉进行，相互促进 Four person should cross for，Promote each other

　　在中国学术界影响较大的观点是“先内后外”，即利率市场化，汇率形成机制改革完成后，才能搞资本账户开放和人民币国际化，人民币国际化应该是最后一项。而事实上，人民币国际化现在进展很快。为什么现实与理论存在这样大的差距呢？我们必须搞清楚“先内后外”的理论基础。这就是蒙代尔的“三角悖论”和利率平价理论。我们认为这两个理论具有一定的局限性，并不完全适合中国目前的实际情况。“不可能三角”是指固定汇率、资本自由流动和货币政策有效性三者只能选其二。使用这个理论来分析我国当前的实际情况至少有两个局限性。资本完全自由流动（或完全管制）、固定汇率制（或浮动汇率制）和货币政策有效（或无效），这“三角”的绝对状态并非常态，实际上往往并不是极端的，而是存在大量的中间状态。中国目前的资本流动和汇率管制就是中间状态，在中间状态下，三者可以有条件成立。此外，我们还要注意到中国作为一个大国的特殊国情。在小国经济中，一个国家的汇率甚至利率在很大程度上是受国际资本流动影响的。而大国经济规模大，其货币政策能对其他国家的政策选择产生较大影响。目前中国的货币政策对世界的影响在不断加强。利率平价理论的局限性在于，大国国内资金一般要远远多于套利资金，利率和汇率及其变动基本不取决于套利资金的流动，而主要受国内经济金融条件的影响。此外，市场并不总是那么有效，使得利率平价理论未必符合我国的实际情况。

In the Chinese academic circles influence a bigger view is“Within the first after”，Namely interest rate marketization，Exchange rate formation mechanism reform after completion，To make capital account liberalization and RMB internationalization，RMB internationalization should be the last one。In fact，RMB internationalization progress quickly now。Why reality and theory there is such a huge gap？We must make clear“Within the first after”Theoretical basis。This is the mundell“Triangle paradox”And the interest rate parity theory。We think that the two theory has certain limitation，Is not suitable for China's actual situation。“Can't triangle”Refers to the fixed exchange rate、The free flow of capital and monetary policy validity three can choose the second。Using this theory to analyze current situation at least two limitations。Capital completely free flow（Or complete control）、Fixed exchange rate system（Or floating exchange rate system）And monetary policy effective（Or invalid），this“triangle”The absolute state is not normal，In fact often not extreme，But there are a lot of intermediate state。China's current capital flow and exchange rate control is the intermediate state，In the middle state，Three can have established conditions。In addition，We have to pay attention to China, as a big country of the special national conditions。In the small country economy，A country's exchange rate and interest rate in the very great degree is affected by the influence of international capital flows。And major economy scale，Its monetary policy to other countries have great influence on policy choice。At present China's monetary policy influence to the world in the continuously strengthen。Interest rate parity theory lies in the limitations of，Big domestic funds generally is far more than arbitrage fund，Interest rate and exchange rate and its fluctuation basic does not depend on arbitrage capital flow，While the main subject to domestic economic and financial condition the influence。In addition，The market is not always so effective，Makes the interest rate parity theory may not accord with the actual conditions of our country。

　　所以，资本账户开放与利率市场化、汇率形成机制改革、人民币国际化并不存在简单的先后关系，在很大程度上是互相依赖、协调推进的。在目前的汇率和利率机制下，过快、过大开放资本账户，可能使中国陷入高外汇储备、高货币供应量和高通胀压力的怪圈。因此，在开放资本账户的同时，必须积极稳妥地推进利率市场化、汇率形成机制的市场化改革。

so，Capital account liberalization and interest rate marketization、Exchange rate formation mechanism reform、RMB internationalization does not exist simple successively relationship，To a large extent is dependent on each other、Coordination propelled。In the present exchange rate and interest rate mechanism，Too fast、Big open capital account，May make China into high foreign exchange reserves、High money supply and high inflation pressure circle。therefore，In the open capital account at the same time，Must actively and steadily push forward the interest rate marketization、The marketization of exchange rate formation mechanism reform。

　　与此同时，我国还需要在以下几方面加快金融改革和开放的步伐：一是要加快深化金融体系的市场化改革，推进金融机构的市场化运营，减少或取消对金融机构和企业的隐性担保；二是要发展现代化的金融基础设施，修改和完善金融立法框架，完善金融监管框架，建立宏观审慎监管体系，以应对系统性风险；三是要推动金融市场的发展以降低经济体系对银行的过度依赖，打破行业垄断，促进竞争。我国金融改革与开放的每一个方面既不能单兵突进，也不能过分强调简单的先后顺序，更不能期盼一蹴而就，而应该是在条件基本成熟的情况下，协调、渐进推进，这就是我国金融改革与开放的逻辑顺序。

meanwhile，China is still need to be in the following aspects to speed up the pace of financial reform and opening up：One is to speed up the marketization reform deepening financial system，To promote financial institutions market operation，To reduce or cancel to financial institutions and enterprise's recessive guarantee；The second is to develop modern financial infrastructure，To modify and improve financial legislation framework，Perfecting financial regulatory framework，Establish macroscopic prudential supervision system，In response to systemic risk；Three is to promote the development of financial market in order to reduce the economic system of excessive dependence on the bank，Break monopoly industry，Promote competition。China's financial reform and open every aspect can neither solo dart，Also cannot overemphasize simple order，More can't expect overnight，And should be in condition basic mature circumstances，coordination、Gradual advance，This is China's financial reform and open logical sequence。

　　（作者为中国银联股份有限公司高级研究员）

（The author is China unionpay co., LTD., senior researcher）