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降准预期落空 2100点再度告急--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-23

  昨日,由于央行巨量逆回购驱走降准预期,大盘震荡回落。除玻璃、电力等板块表现强于大盘,汽车制造和酒饮料等板块皆表现相对疲弱。通信设备和石油石化行业呈现资金流入,净流入资金均超过1亿元;房地产和酒饮料等板块遭遇资金打压,净流出资金均超过3亿元。

yesterday,Due to the central bank jillion reverse repurchase drive away drop quasi expected,Grail concussion back。In addition to glass、Such as power plate performance better than the market,Automobile manufacture and wine beverages plate are relatively weak performance。Communication equipment and petroleum and petrochemical industry present capital inflows,Net inflow funds are more than 100 million yuan;Real estate and wine beverages plate encounter that money,Net outflow of funds are more than 300 million yuan。

  截至收盘,上证指数以2107.71点报收,下跌0.50%;深成指以8726.02点报收,下跌1.40%。

By the closing,The Shanghai index to 2107.71 points at,Fell 0.50%;Shenzhen composition index to 8726.02 points at,Fell 1.40%。

  □据中证投资、华泰证券

Background - according to investment、Huatai securities

  

趋势:市场风险仍然较不确定 trend:Market risk is still uncertain

  21日央行共开展了2200亿元逆回购,其中7天期逆回购1500亿,14天期逆回购700亿,创下了单日逆回购规模的历史新高。由于昨日有500亿逆回购到期对冲,故周二单日净投放资金量高达1700亿元,为下调一次存款准备金率释放资金量的4成左右。在降准预期屡次落空背景下,这在一定程度上削弱了短期内市场对于降准出台的预期。

21 the central bank to carry out a total of 220 billion yuan reverse repurchase,Among them 7 day period reverse repurchase 150 billion,14 days period reverse repurchase 70 billion,A single day reverse repurchase scale a record high。Yesterday because there are 50 billion reverse repurchase maturity hedge,On Tuesday the worst net on the financing volume is as high as 170 billion yuan,To cut a deposit reserve rate release financing volume 4 around。In drop quasi expected frequently lost background,This to a certain extent weakened the short-term market for drop must on the introduction of the expected。

  沪综指连续下跌后技术修复仍在继续,而反弹中成交量参与度不强,显示市场风险仍有较大的不确定性。综合上市公司业绩层面、股市筹码供应与解禁、新三板等因素来看,市场仍然面临较大的压力。结构性行情在中国历来被视为弱市的被动选择,实际上成熟市场齐涨共跌也绝非常态。

Shanghai composite index fell for the technology after repair continues,And in the rebound volume participation is not strong,Display market risk there are still large uncertainties。The comprehensive performance of listed companies level、The stock market chip supply and lift the ban、The new SanBan factors to see,The market is still faced with great pressure。Structural market in China is always regarded as a weak market passive choice,In fact the mature markets drawn up common drop also is not normal。

  

操作:下跌为超跌反弹提供机会 operation:Fall for ultra fall provides one with the opportunity to rebound

  即将结束发行的国金通用国鑫发起拟任基金经理吴强表示,近日股指跌破2100点心理关口并不意外,市场下跌压力的释放为股指未来止跌回升提供了契机,投资者可适度布局超跌反弹和政策红利机会。从投资产品角度而言,混合型发起式基金能够较好发挥风险平衡配置作用,也比较适于短期谨慎而长期乐观的A股市场。

The kingdom of issue is coming to an end with countries by offering the aspiring fund managers said WuJiang,Recently stock index fell below 2100 points psychologically is not a surprise,The market fall the release of pressure for future stock index rebounded reason provided an excellent opportunity,Investors may be appropriate layout ultra fall rebound and policy bonus opportunity。From the investment products perspective,Mixed type fund launched to better play to balance the risk allocation function,Is suitable for short-term care and long-term optimistic a-share market。

  华泰证券(601688,股吧)金融产品研究评价中心主任王群航(博客,微博)认为,“设想一笔投资的收益率目标,当然必须要参照一下基础市场行情。在未来的三年左右时间里,如果不看空后市行情,如果觉得股指有重上3000点的机会,那么,只要投资绩效中等偏上,净值增长率就有望达到30%左右。或者说,这是一个较高概率的事件。”

Huatai securities(601688,guba)Financial product research and evaluation WangQunHang, director of the center(blog,Micro bo)think,“Imagine an investment rate of return on the target,Certainly must refer to the basic market。In the next three years time,If don't empty the market outlook,If think stock index has heavy on the chance of 3000 points,so,As long as the investment performance above the average,Net growth rate is expected to reach 30%。or,This is a higher probability of events。”

 

 说笑般的“规划” Like talking and laughing“planning”

  如果大家还记得2010年、2011年行情的话,“炒地图”在很长的一段时间内成为投资者最为热衷的操作模式。从海南炒到东北,从浙江炒到新疆,投资者俨然成了运筹帷幄的大将军,坐在电脑前看一下哪些地方有哪些上市公司,就成了最佳的投资者。

If you still remember in 2010、2011 words of market,“Fried map”In very long period of time become investors most dedicated operating mode。From hainan Fried to northeast,From zhejiang Fried to xinjiang,Investors peremptory became devise strategies within a command tent of napoleon,Sit in front of the computer look at where what the listed company,Became the best investors。

  如果当初的区域规划只是毛毛雨的话,现在的规划则要惊人得多了。前日媒体报道,某市推出了1.8万亿的工业发展规划,昨日西南某省又曝出了3亿的旅游振兴计划。当然,股市也是应声而动,总有那么一两只当地的股票像打了鸡血一样活蹦乱跳。

If the original regional planning only drizzling words,Now the planning should much more amazing。Media reports the day before yesterday,A city launched 1.8 trillion industrial development planning,Southwest province yesterday and exposure out of the 300 million tourist stimulus plan。Of course,The stock market is also answer and dynamic,There is always so one furtive local stock like played chicken blood as alive and kicking。

  我不知道当初那些“炒地图”的投资者收益如何,但以那些被炒过的股票来看,至少那些股票没有产生系统性的收益,那肯定是绝大多数参与者要赔钱的。而现在,这些动辄万亿的规划和纲要,且不说钱哪里来,就当真的投了钱,产出和回报何时能实实在在看到?

I don't know that at the beginning“Fried map”Investors profit how,But to those who are parched stock to see,At least those stocks not produce systemic income,It must be most participants to out of pocket。And now,These frequently trillion planning and outline,Apart from money where come,Is serious for money,Output and return truly, truly, when can see?

  如果上市公司只有投入没有产出,那么这样的投资就必定以失败为收场。

If the listed company not only input output,Such investment will surely be to fail to end。

  



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