本报记者 姜业庆

Our reporter JiangYeQing

　　自2011年第四季度开始，债券市场迎来一路上涨，直到今年上半年末，债券市场一直保持着较明显的上涨态势。在此前提下，已获取固定收益为主的保本基金是否依然可以建仓？

Since the fourth quarter of 2011 began，Bond markets have been rocketing，Until at the end of the first half of this year，The bond market has been maintained a significant rise。On the premise，Already get fixed income primarily break-even fund is still can open a position？

　　国金证券(600109,股吧)基金研究员张剑辉告诉记者，重要的一点就是要看目前的市场表现。经过了一年的调整后，近期大盘盘整于2100点区间，处于历史估值低位。目前，A股整体PE值约为12.57倍，PB值约为1.85倍，均非常接近历史最低值。在此估值水平下，A股向下的空间已经很小，而向上空间则较大，正处于熊市末期。从过往的经验来看，熊市末期和牛市初期，都是保本基金的良好发行时机，其投资收益普遍高于其他发行时点的收益。

Countries gold securities(600109,guba)Fund the researchers ZhangJianHui told reporters，Important thing is to look at the current market performance。After a year of adjusted，Recent market consolidation in 2100 point interval，In a historical low valuations。At present，A shares overall PE value is about 12.57 times，PB value is about 1.85 times，Are very close to the lowest history。In this valuation level，A shares downward space is very small，And up the space is larger，Is in the end of the bear market。From the experience of the past to see，The end of the bear market and early bull market，Are guaranteed fund issued the good opportunity，The return on investment is commonly higher than others in the issue date of the income。

　　平安大华保本基金拟任基金经理孙健也认为，在震荡市下确保资产保值，保住本金不受损失是一个总的原则。投资者宜尽量配置中长期固定收益类及稳定性较高的准储蓄类理财产品，捂紧自己的“钱袋子”。

Peace dahua break-even funds aspiring fund manager liu changgen also think，In the shock city to ensure assets，Keep the principal do not suffer loss is a general principle。Investors appropriate configuration as far as possible long-term fixed income class and stability of high quasi savings kind of financial products，Wu tight his“Fund sources”。

　　但是，无论从国内外宏观经济形势还是通胀来看，下半年债券市场慢牛趋势不改，债市的慢牛行情为保本基金在投资初期积累安全垫提供了有力保障。短期内债市调整越多，下半年建仓的力度也就会越大。孙健认为，投资人应当把握好短期债市调整的良机，根据当时市场的情况决定建仓的速度。

but，No matter from the macro economic situation at home and abroad or inflation to see，The bond market in the second half of the slow bull trend does not change，Bond market slow cattle market for guaranteed fund investing in the initial accumulation safety cushion provides a powerful guarantee。In the short term the bond market adjustment，A second half the strength of will be bigger also。Liu changgen think，Investors should grasp the opportunity to adjust short-term bond market，According to the current market to open a position speed。

　　首先，从宏观经济上看，三季度中国经济在同比数据上见底的概率较大，但并不是中国经济真正的见底。同时，中国经济则受制于房地产调控和地方财政收支、地方融资平台等问题的多重影响，地方政府要启动新一轮投资的基础比较薄弱。因此，中国经济从数据上看有反弹的可能，但目前还不具备一个大幅度回升的基础。

First of all，From the macro economic look，China's economy in the third quarter year-on-year data on the bottom of the saw large probability，But China's economy is not really see bottom。At the same time，China's economy is subject to the real estate regulation and local financial revenue and expenditure、Financing platform where the problems such as multiple effects，The local government to launch a new round of investment foundation is weak。therefore，China's economy from the data on the rebound may be，But at present still do not have a greatly picks up foundation。

　　在中国经济长期处于下滑阶段，外围经济难以好转的情况下，无论是大企业还是中小企业都会选择储备资金，而近期的两次降息也会进一步加大企业囤积资金的动力，总体看下半年债券的发行量依然很大。同时，今年二季度我国资本和金融项目逆差714亿美元，外汇资金的流出，会导致市场自然紧缩。所以，债券市场在下半年发行量和资金阶段性紧张两个因素的影响下仍然有较好的趋势，为保本基金的建仓提供了机会。以平安大华保本基金为例，该基金的稳健资产占基金资产比例不低于60%，主要为债券市场，还有不高于40%的基金资产投资于风险资产，主要为股票市场。债券市场收益为保本基金积累了雄厚的安全垫，而实现超额收益，则主要看股票市场的收益水平。如果此时建仓，在三年的保本周期内，A股若出现阶段性或整体投资机会，基金也将迎来通过权益类投资获取超额收益的机会。

In China's economy in the long run, decline phase，Peripheral economic hard to get better circumstances，No matter how big enterprise or small and medium-sized enterprises can choose reserve funds，And the recent two cuts will further increase the enterprise hoarding capital power，The second half of the overall look of the bond is still large circulation。At the same time，In the second quarter of this year China's capital and financial account deficit of $71.4 billion，Foreign exchange capital outflow，Can lead to market natural tightening。so，The bond market in the second half of circulation and capital periodic tension under the influence of two factors still has a good trend，For break-even fund provides the opportunity to open a position。In peace dahua break-even fund as an example，The fund of fund assets stable assets proportion is less than 60%，Mainly for the bond market，There are no more than 40% of the fund's assets invested in risky assets，Mainly for the stock market。The bond market income for break-even funds accumulated a solid safety cushion，And the achievement of excess earnings，Basically see the stock market income level。If the open a position，In the three years of break-even period，If A shares appear periodic or overall investment opportunities，The fund will also usher in through the rights to get excess profits kind of investment opportunities。

　　孙健认为，在各类股票中，更看好蓝筹股的投资机会。首先，从数据上来看，蓝筹方面的石油化工、建筑装饰、航空运输、机场高速、铁路运输、银行等行业PE、PB值均处于历史低位。平安大华保本基金在权益类资产投资上会采取复制蓝筹股指数的模式，即投资现有蓝筹指数中的标的股。

Liu changgen think，In all kinds of stock，Prefer blue chip stock investment opportunities。First of all，From the data point of view，Blue chip aspects of petroleum chemical industry、Architectural decoration、Air transport、Airport high-speed、Railway transport、Banks and other industries PE、PB value are at record low。Peace dahua break-even fund in the rights and interests kind assets investment will take copy blue chip index model，The blue chip index that investment existing underlying shares。