稀土永磁昨日大跌有其利空背景。在欧美日通过WTO诉讼对中国稀土政策施压的同时，一些出产稀土的国家稀土开采重启计划也进入了实质阶段，包括马来西亚、澳大利亚等国家在内的稀土矿山开发和冶炼等多个项目运行非常顺利，预计下半年将会陆续投产，主要集中在轻稀土方面，不仅产量可观且成本非常低廉，“中国单一供应稀土”的格局将发生变化，相关稀土类公司的业绩预期将会出现下降。受此消息影响，周一稀土永磁板块均跌幅高达5.8%，权跌幅为5.2%，位居各板块跌幅首位。同花顺(300033,股吧)数据统计显示，稀土永磁板块当天主动卖出大单8.26亿元，而主动买入大单为4.28亿元，DDE大单净额为净流出10.62亿元。从跌幅居前的个股来看，中科三环(000970,股吧)跌停，银河磁体(300127,股吧)、广晟有色(600259,股吧)、宁波韵升(600366,股吧)跌幅超过9%。从技术上来看，这些个股都是历史上的强势股，周一的下跌具有强势股补跌的性质。

Rare earth permanent magnet were yesterday has its bad background。In Europe, the U.S. and Japan through the WTO litigation on China's policy of rare earth pressure at the same time，Some produce rare earth country rare earth mining restart programs also entered the stage of essence，Including Malaysia、Australia and other countries, the rare earth mine exploitation and smelting, and other project running very smooth，In the second half of the expected will be put into production in succession，Mainly concentrated in the light rare earth aspects，Not only yield considerable and the cost is low，“China's single supply rare earth”Pattern will change，Related rare earth class company's performance is expected to decline。By this news influence，On Monday, rare earth permanent magnet plate are fall as much as 5.8%，Right down 5.2%，Each plate in the fall。Straight flush(300033,guba)Data statistics show that，Rare earth permanent magnet plate the active sell large single 826 million yuan，And active buying big single for 428 million yuan，DDE big single net net outflow is 1.062 billion yuan。From the fall before the stocks to see，Zhongke tricyclic(000970,guba)Drop stop，Galaxy magnet(300127,guba)、Wide sheng non-ferrous(600259,guba)、Ningbo rhyme rise(600366,guba)Fell more than 9%。From a technical point of view，These stocks are strong in the history of stock，Monday's fall has strong shares for the nature of the fall。

　　本月解禁股的下跌是周一的另一特征。广发证券(000776,股吧)当天解禁9.05亿股，占总股本的15.3%，该股开盘不久即封在跌停板上。另外，本月解禁个股中，华鹏飞(300350,股吧)跌停，恒邦股份(002237,股吧)、保龄宝(002286,股吧)、新天科技(300259,股吧)、晶盛机电(300316,股吧)、顾地科技(002694,股吧)等跌幅超过8%。据同花顺数据统计，2012年8月，共有109只个股解禁，解禁股份125亿股，市值约为1102亿元，占全体解禁股总市值15.16%，在本年前8个月中解禁额位居第三位。从解禁动因分析，首发和增发因素占84.4%，股权分置限售占10.1%，股权激励限售占5.5%。首次公开募股（IPO）及再融资解禁股的大幅下挫，虽有市场低迷因素，也同时反映出新股定价仍然偏高。新股解禁出现明显的抛压，也是市场情绪对不断扩容“用脚投票”的发泄。

This month, lift the ban shares fell on Monday is another feature。Wide hair negotiable securities(000776,guba)The lift the ban 905 million shares，Accounted for 15.3% of the total share capital，The stock opening soon sealed in a limit down on。In addition，Lift the ban this month in the stocks，HuaPeng fly(300350,guba)Drop stop，Constant bond shares(002237,guba)、Bowling treasure(002286,guba)、New heavens and a science and technology(300259,guba)、Crystal cheng mechanical and electrical(300316,guba)、To science and technology(002694,guba)And fell more than 8%。According to the straight flush data statistics，In August 2012，A total of 109 only stocks lift the ban，Lift the ban shares 12.5 billion shares，Market value is about 110.2 billion yuan，The total market value of the shares of 15.16%，In this years ago eight months forehead lift the ban in the third。From the analysis of the reason，Starting and additional factors accounted for 84.4%，Equity division limited sales accounted for 10.1%，Stock ownership incentive limited sales accounted for 5.5%。Initial public offerings（IPO）And refinancing lift the ban shares tumbled，Although have the market downturn factors，Also reflects the new pricing is still on the high side。The new shares appear obvious selling pressure，Is market sentiment to continuous flash“Vote with their feet”The vent。

　　昨日跌幅榜上，金融行业以均跌幅3.05%位居前列。子行业表现出巨大差距，权重较大的银行股跌幅0.62%，而权重较小的券商股跌幅5.17%，保险股跌幅4.32%。在这几个子行业中，银行股一直低迷因此跌幅相对较小。而今年以来，券商股和保险股前期保持强势，其中券商股在上半年的涨幅排行中名列第二，因此周一券商和保险板块的下跌同样具有补跌的性质。数据显示，当天券商股主动卖出大单金额4.28亿元，而主动买入大单金额2.47亿元。券商股中，广发证券跌停，18只当天交易的个股中，12只跌幅超过5%，最小跌幅个股也达3%，板块集体下跌态势明显。

Yesterday's decline，The financial industry to fall 3.05% are high achievers。Fruit industry shows a great gap，Weight bigger Banks shares fell 0.62%，And weight smaller brokerages shares fell 5.17%，Insurance stocks fell 4.32%。In these a few fruit industry，Bank shares have been downturn so relatively small decline。And since this year，Stock brokers and insurance stocks early remains strong，The stock brokers in the first half of the increase in the ranking second，Therefore Monday brokers and insurance of the plates are also falling for the nature of the fall。Data display，The stock brokers active sell large single amount is 428 million yuan，And active buying big single amount is 247 million yuan。Stock brokers in，Wide hair negotiable securities drop stop，18 a day trade in stocks，12 only fell more than 5%，Minimum stocks also fell 3%，Plate collective fall situation obviously。

　　展望后市，大盘仍在不断寻底过程之中，上证2000点整数关口面临严峻考验，而强势股的补跌也仍未结束。具体到上述的各个板块，稀土永磁由于补跌刚刚开始，且有明显的利空因素，因此前期涨幅较大的龙头股仍需积极回避。而从解禁股来看，未来的解禁压力仍然较大。统计显示，虽然9月份解禁市值明显下降，当月仅有772亿元解禁，但第四季度，解禁压力逐月增大，属于本年度的解禁高峰。按当前价格计算，10月份解禁市值为1210亿元，位列年度第三位；11月份解禁市值为1791亿元，位列年度第二位；12月份解禁市值为2316亿元，位列年度第一位。（作者系天源证券投资顾问）

Market outlook outlook，The market is still in the process of continuously seek bottom，The Shanghai 2000 point integer passes serious test，And strong strands of complement drop also is not over yet。Specific to the above each plate，Rare earth permanent magnet result of filling fell just beginning，And there is obviously bad factors，Therefore the larger increase leading shares still need active avoidance。And from a lift the ban shares to see，The future of the release of pressure is still greater。Statistics show that，Although September lift the ban value decreased obviously，The only 77.2 billion yuan lift the ban，But the fourth quarter，Lift the ban pressure increased month by month，Belong to this year's lift the ban peak。According to the current price calculation，In October, the market value for 121 billion yuan，In the third year；November lift the ban value for 179.1 billion yuan，In the second year；December lift the ban value for 231.6 billion yuan，In the first year。（The author is the securities investment consulting）