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做空动力成倍放大 A股盈利模式悄然巨变--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-28

  广发证券(000776,股吧)、广晟有色(600259,股吧)、包钢股份(600010,股吧)、中国宝安(000009,股吧)、中兴通讯……这些股民熟知的沪深300蓝筹股昨日上演集体暴跌秀,其下跌面积之广、分布行业之多、下跌幅度之深,在A股历史上极为罕见。

Wide hair negotiable securities(000776,guba)、Wide sheng non-ferrous(600259,guba)、Clad steel shares(600010,guba)、China baoan(000009,guba)、Zte...These people known as the Shanghai and shenzhen 300 blue chip,Yesterday on collective slump show,The fall of the wide area、Distribution of industry、The deep declines,In the A shares are extremely rare in history。

  种种迹象表明,在周末消息面近乎真空的前提下,昨日蓝筹股暴跌的“罪魁祸首”实源于一股近期笼罩在市场上方的做空力量。随着融资融券、期指对A股做空力度的加大、以及转融通的不日开启,A股市场的盈利模式已经发生了深刻的变化。作为普通投资者,该如何应对新的游戏规则……

All the signs are that,In the weekend news surface is the premise of vacuum,Yesterday blue chip collapsed“culprit”Actual source in a stock market in the near future shrouded in the short power。Along with the margin、Period refers to A shares do empty intensified efforts、And turn the finance opening in a few days,A-share market profit model has had the profound change。As an ordinary investors,How to deal with the new rules of the game...

 

 蓝筹股集体溃退 Blue chip stock collective rout

  昨日沪指继续逼近2000点大关,深成指也创出三年半以来新低。如果从板块来看,“股价稳定器”——蓝筹股的集体溃败,无疑是昨日股指深跌的最大推手。以沪深300指数为例,全天收跌2.09%,不但远高于沪指的1.74%跌幅,也高于深成指的2.06%。

Yesterday to continue approximation boomed in the 2000 mark,Shenzhen composition index also makes three and a half years low。If from plate to see,“Share price stabilizer”- the blue chip stock collective rout,Yesterday is no doubt the biggest hand slap stock index deep down。In Shanghai and shenzhen 300 index as an example,All day long the fell 2.09%,Not only is much higher than the 1.74% decline boomed,Also higher than 2.06% of the shenzhen composition index。

  打开昨日两市涨跌榜可发现,涨幅居前的50只个股中,现有的沪深300成分股不见踪影;相反,广发证券、广晟有色、桐昆股份(601233,股吧)、厦门钨业(600549,股吧)等9只沪深300成分股高居50“熊”行列。此外,Wind数据也显示,截至昨日收盘,两市已有87只沪深300成分股(最新成分股,下同)创出年内新低,27只成分股股价低于2008年1664点的水准。

Open the two cities yesterday's go up drop can be found,Or the first 50 only in stocks,The existing csi 300 constituent stock out of sight;instead,Wide hair negotiable securities、Wide sheng non-ferrous、Paulownia Queensland shares(601233,guba)、Xiamen tungsten industry(600549,guba)Nine, such as Shanghai and shenzhen 300 index at 50“bear”ranks。In addition,Wind data also show,As of yesterday closing,Two city has 87 only Shanghai and shenzhen 300 index(The latest constituent stock,Similarly hereinafter)Creating years low,27 a constituent stock share price below the 2008 point level。

  事实上,在昨日蓝筹全线败退之前,已有一些代表性个股屡有向下异动表现:7月16日,中兴通讯和苏宁电器(002024,股吧)因中报业绩大幅下降而双双跌停;8月10日,卷入“农药门”事件的张裕A离跌停堪堪一线;8月13日,盛传“海外投资巨亏29亿”、“高管出事”的中信证券(600030,股吧)暴跌9.10%并殃及整个券商板块;8月14日,与京东陷入割肉战的苏宁电器再遭重创,全天逆市下跌7.11%……

In fact,In the blue chip yesterday all before now,There has been some representative stocks are down repeatedly different dynamic performance:July 16,,Zte and su ning electric equipment(002024,guba)Because of the performance center daily news plunged and both drop stop;August 10,,Involved in“Pesticide door”ZhangYu events from A drop stop me me A line;On August 13,,Is widely“Overseas investment giant kui 2.9 billion”、“Executives have an accident”Citic securities(600030,guba)Plunged 9.10% and bring disaster to the securities trader plate;On August 14,,And jingdong into cut the flesh wars su ning electric equipment to trauma,All day long inverse city fell 7.11%...

  

做空幽灵笼罩市场 Short ghost in the market

  从昨日领跌的蓝筹股来看,下跌原因不一。广发证券的跌停,缘于该公司昨日迎来去年8月26日定增限售股的解禁。广晟有色、厦门钨业等稀土永磁股的暴跌,则是受某媒体“多国重启稀土开采,稀土企业面临利润下滑、市场萎缩等”报道的影响。此外,也有市场人士认为,昨日蓝筹股的下挫,跟中报业绩不佳有关,而多数蓝筹大盘股将于本周披露半年报。解禁、产业链冲击、业绩地雷等稔熟的名词,已伴随A股走过多年,几乎每一次下跌,都能揪出类似的利空。只是从近期蓝筹股密集下跌的表现来看,颇有几分“利空天天有,近期特别多”的意味。

Yesterday brought down from the blue chip to see,Fall due differ。Of wide hair negotiable securities drop stop,Because the company welcome yesterday last August 26 fixed increase limit of the release of a sale。Wide sheng non-ferrous、Xiamen tungsten industry and rare earth permanent magnet strands of slump,It is affected by a media“Multinational restart rare earth mining,Rare earth enterprise faced with declining profits、Market atrophy, etc”The influence of the report。In addition,Also some market experts think,Yesterday the blue chip stock fell,With poor performance center daily news about,And most blue chip bulk lots stock will be on disclosure of annual reports this week and a half。Lift the ban、Industrial chain impact、Performance mines, etc RenShou noun,Already with A shares through the years,Almost every time down,Can ferret out similar bad。Just from the recent blue chip intensive down to see the performance,Quite a part“Bad every day,Recently much more special”that。

  “警惕做空动力成倍放大。”东吴证券(601555,股吧)分析师顾轶高表示,积弱的A股市场连创新低,巨大的市场规模对应的却是千亿不到的成交量,但就在这样一个风雨飘摇的市场中,却屡屡有人在利益的驱动下,通过一些所谓的消息爆出,甩出一根根“最后的稻草”,压迫指数创出一个个新低。

“Alert do empty power fold magnification。”Soochow securities(601555,guba)Analysts GuYi high said,JiRuo of a-share market even low innovation,The huge market scale is not corresponding to escape the volume,But in such a precarious market,But often someone in the interests of the driver,Through some so-called news came,Throw one“The last straw”,Oppression makes a low index。

  众所周知,目前A股市场有两大做空渠道:股指期货和融资融券。观察二者近期的变动,可发现A股市场的做空力量正结结实实地在加强。

As is known to all,At present A share market has two big short channel:Stock index futures and margin。To observe the changes in the near future,A-share market can be found to air force is truly in strengthening。

  截至昨日收盘,股指期货总持仓再创历史纪录,达到95925手。其中前20名会员空头在主力合约上增仓5148手,较多头高了1000多手。而近两周来,尽管指数已经在前期低点,仍然有空方资金持续接盘,期指总持仓一直维持9万手左右。

As of yesterday closing,Stock index futures total position make history,Up to 95925 hand。The top 20 members bear in the main contract ing 5148 hand,A long high more than 1000 hand。And nearly two weeks,Although index has been in previous low,Still free party funds for flange,Period refers to the total position keep around 90000 hand。

  融资融券方面,自今年3月底以来,融券的卖出金额就一直呈逐周上升、不断创新高的趋势,而周均融资净买入规模一直维持在10亿元左右的规模。截至上周,融资余额为662.88亿元,融券余额为12.95亿元,两者“剪刀差”在不断拉大。

Margin aspects,Since march this year since the end of the month,The securities sold amount has been a weekly rise、Constant innovation high trend,But weeks are financing net buying scale has been maintained at 1 billion yuan scale。By last week,Financing balance is 66.288 billion yuan,Securities balance is 1.295 billion yuan,both“scissors”In the widening of the。

 

 新规则下的对策 Under the new rules of the countermeasures

  值得关注的是,随着转融通制度近期即将开启,A股市场即将迎来第三种做空工具,盈利模式也将发生翻天覆地的改变。市场人士表示,由于转融通把融资融券真正推向前台,做空工具的丰富,使得A股市场将迎来真正的对冲时代和对冲基金。

There is concern,With the recent turn accommodation system will open,A-share market will usher in the third do empty tool,Profit model will also occur earth-shaking changes。Market participants said,Because the refinancing margin really to the front desk,Do empty tool of the rich,Makes the a-share market will have real hedge age and hedge funds。

  “做空时代将来临,多头该休矣。”国海证券(000750,股吧)财富管理中心周云广感慨道,转融通将带来几个改变,普通投资者的操作难度也在加大:首先是市场会更加注重股票价值,一旦价格过分偏离,就有反方融资或融券参与,而走势一旦形成趋势,转融通还可能助涨助跌。因此,过去通过控制一定比例的流通盘操控股价走势的盈利模式也变得越来越难,中小投资者追高强势股博取受益的风险也越来越大。其次,盈利模式更加多样化和复杂化,各种金融工具的使用会使得股价的变化趋势更加复杂,这将给中小投资者在理解市场和采取交易方式上增加不少难度。最后,投资者的思维也会发生变化,越来越多的投资者会追求通过做空个股盈利这样的盈利模式,而不像过去那样一味做多。

“Do empty time will come,Long this Hugh yi。”GuoHai securities(000750,guba)Wealth management center ZhouYunGuang rhetorically,Refinancing will bring some change,Ordinary investors in the operation difficulty also increase:The first is the market will pay more attention to the value of stocks,As soon as the price too much deviation,There is opposition financing or securities to participate in,And trend once formed trend,Refinancing may also help up to help fell。therefore,The past through the control a percentage of the circulation control stock price movements profit model is also becoming more and more difficult,Small and medium-sized investors chasing high strong shares from the risk of benefit is also more and more big。secondly,Profit model much more diverse and complicated,All kinds of financial instruments makes the stock price's variety trend more complicated,It will give the small and medium-sized investors in understanding market and take the way of trading increase many difficulty。finally,Investors thinking will also change,More and more investors will pursue through the short stocks earnings this profit model,Unlike the past that do more than blindly。

  新的游戏规则下,适者生存。周云广建议,投资者首先要配置做空工具,开通股指期货和融资融券,多一种投资选择;其次,要加强基本面的研究,做到心中有数,不懂的话要积极请教投资顾问;最后,要给自己的投资留下一定的安全边际,避免过分追高,尤其是参与炒作题材股和垃圾股,只看资金流向和技术图形的风险日益加大。 记者 艾凌羽 王金萍

Under the new rules of the game,The survival of the fittest。ZhouYunGuang Suggestions,Investors must first configuration do empty tool,Open stock index futures and margin,Many a kind of investment choices;secondly,To strengthen the basic research,Accomplish know fairly well,Don't understand words should actively consult investment advisor;finally,To give their own investment leave a margin of safety,Avoid excessive chasing the high,Especially the participation subject hype shares and trash stock,Only look at capital flow and technical graphics more and more risk。 Reporter YiLingYu WangJinPing



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