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两维度寻找具回购潜质公司--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-08-29

  本报讯 市场低迷之际,宝钢的回购获得投资者积极响应,该股周二放量涨停。宝钢股份(600019,股吧)成为“监管部门支持鼓励上市公司回购”后首家实施回购的公司。分析人士认为,作为国内钢铁行业龙头,宝钢股份此番动用巨资回购A股颇具示范性意义,预计随后将有公司跟进,特别是手中现金充裕、股价较低的蓝筹股。

Report from our correspondent of market downturn,Baosteel buybacks gain investors positive response,The shares tumbled on Tuesday to harden。Baosteel shares(600019,guba)become“Supervision department support encourage listed company intends to buy back its”The first home implement the buyback company。Analysts believe that,As the domestic iron and steel industry leading,Baosteel shares and the use of A huge sum of money buy A demonstration significance in carmaking,Then there will be the company is expected to follow,Especially hand abundant cash、Share price lower blue chip。

 

 A股市场罕见回购 A-share market rare repurchase

  据统计,A股历史上只发生过30次回购情况,其中2006年发生24次,2005年发生3次。2008年后,A股市场很难看到回购,近4年时间只有2011年2月健康元(600380,股吧)实施一次回购。

According to the statistics,A shares only occurred in the history of 30 times buyback situation,The 24 times happened in 2006,2005 happened three times。2008 years later,A-share market it is difficult to see A repurchase,Nearly four years only in February 2011 health yuan(600380,guba)Implement a repurchase。

  不过,从美国和香港股市来看,境外股市上市公司回购股票非常普遍。数据显示,美国市场上每年的公司回购次数平均在580次左右,每年平均发生回购的公司超过400家。香港的年平均回购次数更为频繁,接近1400次,每年参与的公司在90家左右。

but,From the United States and Hong Kong stock market to see,Overseas stock market listed company intends to buy back its shares are very common。Data display,The United States a year on the market the company intends to buy back its number in an average of 580 times or so,Happened a year on average repurchase company more than 400。Hong Kong's average annual buyback times more frequent,Close to 1400 times,Every year to participate in the company in 90 or so。

  “通过与香港和美国市场的对比来看,A股市场回购稀少主要是制度上的原因。”中金公司分析员汪超认为,我国目前虽然建立了股票回购制度,但回购的股票必须依法注销,而不能留作库存,这使得上市公司没有回购股票的动力,反而与各家上市公司希望做大股本的愿望相悖。

“Through the and Hong Kong and the United States market contrast to see,A-share market buyback rare mainly is the institutional reasons。”Cicc analyst WangChao think,Our country at present although established stock repurchase system,But the stock repurchase must, in accordance with law, cancellation,And not reserved for inventory,This makes the listed company not repurchase stock power,But with various listed companies want to do big equity against the wishes。

  不过,浙商证券一策略分析师认为,虽然监管部门近期明确支持和鼓励现金条件许可的上市公司回购自己的股票,但是由于制度上的原因,绝大多数公司即使具备回购的条件,也没有多少回购的动力。然而,结合郭树清上任后大力开展的制度性红利建设,管理层未来有望推出相关的回购鼓励政策以支持上市公司回购。

but,Zhejiang merchants securities strategy analyst think,Although the supervision department recently explicitly support and encourage cash conditions permit of the listed company intends to buy back its own stock,But because of institutional reasons,Most company even if have its condition,Also do not have how many its power。however,Combined with GuoShuQing after taking office to develop institutional bonus construction,Management in the future is expected to launch related buybacks encourage policies to support the listed company intends to buy back its。

  

寻找有回购潜质公司 Looking for potential company repurchase

  值得注意的是,虽然国内市场上因股东认为股价低估而进行回购的次数只有4次,但从回购时间来看,几次回购的时间点均为市场的阶段底部位置。如华电能源(600726,股吧)和华海药业(600521,股吧)的回购时间在2005年下半年,海马汽车(000572,股吧)在2008年末,健康元在2011年初。说明上市公司回购对市场具有一定的信号作用。而成熟股票市场中,回购的信号意义要更强。

It is important to note that,Although the domestic market share for shareholders think underestimate to the number of repurchase only four times,But from the buyback time to see,Several times its time point are market stage bottom position。Such as huadian energy(600726,guba)And huahai pharmaceutical(600521,guba)The buyback time in the second half of 2005,Hippocampal car(000572,guba)In the end of 2008,Health yuan in early 2011。Instructions listed companies to repurchase market has certain signal action。And mature stock market,Its signal meaning to be more strong。

  以香港市场为例,2002年至今,有过两次回购高峰期,均出现在市场非常疲弱的时期:2008年下半年(全球金融危机)和2011年下半年(欧债危机)。汪超表示,就整个市场而言,回购往往出现在估值下滑或是估值绝对水平已经较低的时候。对企业而言,回购主要有两个原因:管理层认为股价可能低于合理价值,回购符合股东的最佳利益;管理层预计未来将有积极因素支撑股价表现。

To the Hong Kong market as an example,Since 2002,There have been two buyback peak,All appear in the market very weak period:The second half of 2008(The global financial crisis)And the second half of 2011(The debt crisis)。WangChao said,In the whole market,Repurchase tend to appear in valuations glide or valuation absolute level has low time。Speaking of the enterprise,Repurchase there are two main reasons why:Consider a stock management could be lower than that of the reasonable value,Repurchase conform to the best interests of the shareholders;Management of the expected future will have positive factors support share price performance。

  正如宝钢股份周二涨停,上述策略分析师表示,因股价偏低而实施回购的公司,其回购行为对于二级市场的股价有着明显的正面刺激效果。因此若鼓励回购政策真能出台,建议投资者积极参与有回购“潜质”的公司。这类公司有两个条件:一是有回购能力,即手持较多的现金;二是有回购动力,即市净率较低。按市净率小于1.5倍、今年中期每股净资产大于3元、货币资金占总市值比例大于50%等指标,筛选49只有回购能力及动力的股票(详见8版),供投资者参考。记者 李宇欣

As baosteel shares harden on Tuesday,The above strategy analysts said,Because of low share price and implement the buyback company,Its repurchase behavior for the secondary market shares have obvious positive effect of stimulation。So if encourage buyback policy can really come,Suggest investor actively involved in a repurchase“potential”company。This kind of company there are two conditions:A is a buyback ability,Namely hand more cash;The second is a buyback power,Which city net rate is relatively low。According to the city net rate is less than 1.5 times、Middle of this year net asset per share more than 3 yuan、Monetary fund accounts for more than 50% of total market value proportion on the index,Screening 49 only buyback ability and the dynamic stock(See version 8),Reference for investors。Reporter gray



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