在“黑色”星期一后，沪深两市周二止跌反弹，不过深成指在房地产板块的拖累下尾盘翻绿。值得一提的是，市场久已绝迹的大象起舞现象再度出现，而且出现在转融通推出的背景之中。上证指数收报于2073.15点，涨幅0.85%；深证成指收报于8400.36点，跌幅0.02%。中小板指报收4213.32点，上涨0.31%；创业板指报收727.62点，上涨0.70%。沪深两市成交总额923.34亿元，较上一交易日的1026.86亿元明显缩量。

in“black”After Monday，Shanghai and shenzhen two cities Tuesday rebound reason，But shenzhen composition index in real estate plates drag down tail plate turn green。Be worth what carry is，Market already extinct elephants dance phenomenon appeared again，And appeared in turn out in the background of financing。The Shanghai index finished at in 2073.15 points，Or 0.85%；Shenzhen stock exchange in ChengZhi at 8400.36 points，Fall 0.02%。Small and medium-sized plate means at 4213.32 points，Rose 0.31%；Gem refers to at 727.62 points，Rose 0.70%。Shanghai and shenzhen two city clinch a deal amount is 92.334 billion yuan，A trading day is 102.686 billion yuan SuLiang obviously。

回购还看公司实力 Repurchase also see the strength of the company

　　《大众证券报》：宝钢拟斥资最高不超过50亿元回购自家股票，这也刺激该股昨日强势涨停。在证监会鼓励上市公司回购股票的背景下，宝钢的标杆性动作有没有可能促使其他低估值蓝筹股的回购潮？得益于宝钢回购的刺激，蓝筹股出现了拉升现象，您认为蓝筹股未来能不能够起来？

《Public stock certificate report》：Baosteel intends to spend is highest do not exceed 5 billion yuan repurchase their stock，It also stimulate the stock strong harden yesterday。In the CSRC encourage listed company intends to buy back its shares background，Baosteel's sexual action could prompt other low valuation of the blue chip stock repurchase tide？Thanks to the stimulation of baosteel repurchase，Blue chip appeared pull to rise phenomenon，Do you think the blue chip stock future can't up？

　　东莞证券策略分析师/陈曦：宝钢的回购对市场的影响比较大，最关键的还是因为其价格。此前不管是增持还是回购价格，基本上都在市价以下，但宝钢的回购价不仅在市价之上，高出的幅度还比较大；而且此次回购占股本大约5%左右，也不小，这就对市场信心形成了比较明显的刺激。短期宝钢这种动作对低估值蓝筹股的确有影响，它起了个头，其他公司存在像宝钢看齐的可能，但这种现象能不能持续还需要看其他公司的能力。

The dongguan securities strategy analyst/ChenXi：Baosteel, repurchase of the influence of the market is larger，The most critical or because its price。Previously whether increasing or repurchase price，Basically all in the market，But the repurchase price of baosteel not only in above market price，The higher amplitude is relatively large；And the buyback account for about 5% of the equity，small，This is the market confidence to form the obvious stimulation。Short-term baosteel this action on low valuation of the blue chip stock does have an impact，It up a，Other companies have more like the possibility of baosteel，But this kind of phenomenon can not be able to continue to still need to look at other company's ability。

　　尽管宝钢所处的行业目前不景气，但其盈利能力很强，因此公司有能力回购。不过目前整体经济仍然处于下行中，上市公司盈利能力在下降，现金流也比较紧张，负债率也较高，因此，上市公司对回购可能有心无力。实际上，从近期的增持现象可以看出，尽管有不少公司增持，但量不是特别大，而且市场还是按照自己的规律来走，并没有因为增持、回购的现象多了就出现反转。宝钢回购对蓝筹股是种信心，从中长期来看蓝筹股的确具有投资价值，但指望短期出现大幅拉升还是很难，这主要是因为现在市场并没有新增资金的进场，仅仅依靠存量资金，蓝筹股难有大幅拉升，未来还需要信心的回升。

Although baosteel in place of the industry at present recession，But its profit ability is very strong，So the company has the ability to buy。But at present the overall economy is still in a descending in，Listed companies' profit ability on the decline，Cash flow and more nervous，Ratio and higher，therefore，A listed company may have desire to buy。In fact，From the recent increasing phenomenon can be seen，Although there are many company around，But the quantity is not particularly big，And the market or according to their own rules to go，And not for increasing、The phenomenon of repurchase many have a reversal。Baosteel repurchase of blue chip is a kind of confidence，From the long term blue chip indeed has investment value，But count on short-term a substantial pull to rise or difficult to，This is mainly because the market now and no new capital approach，Only by stock fund，Blue chip difficult to have a significant pull to rise，The future need confidence,。

　　东兴证券高级策略分析师/姜丕军：宝钢回购究竟是个体行为还是蓝筹回购潮的开启，尚有待进一步观察。虽然回购对提升公司价值有帮助，但破净公司是否有资金能力实施大规模回购和有足够的回购动力，还值得商榷。不可否认，宝钢的回购，对于市场是一个企稳信号，但并不是主要信号。决定蓝筹股走势的，还是要在能够看得到的范围内，宏观经济有明确的好转迹象。

Large senior securities strategy analyst/JiangPiJun：Baosteel buyback what is the behavior of the individual or the blue-chip buyback tide open，Still needs further observation。Although the repurchase of ascension company value have help，But the net does the company have the funds ability is carried out large-scale repurchase and have enough buyback power，Still worthy of。undeniable，Baosteel buybacks，For the market is an stabilises signal，But not the main signal。Decided to blue chip stock movements，Or we can see range，Macroeconomic have clear signs of better。

　8月收阴概率偏大 August the Yin probability partial big

　　《大众证券报》：两市延续近期弱势，成交量屡创新低，但午后在“两桶油”的带动下，大盘快速翻红。您认为“两桶油”的异动，传递了何种信号？周二的上涨是止跌还是反弹开始？成交量的低迷又体现了市场怎样的情绪？还有3个交易日8月收官，您预计8月是否会继续收阴？

《Public stock certificate report》：Two cities continue recent weak，Turnover reached new low，But in the afternoon“Two barrels of oil”Along the，Grail quick turn red。Do you think“Two barrels of oil”Vision of the dynamic，Transfer the what kind of signal？Tuesday's rise is a reason or started to rebound？Volume of the downturn and reflect the market what kind of mood？There are three trading day an August，If you expect to August will continue to accept Yin？

　　陈曦：“两桶油”经常会有异动，在目前这个位置其异动有积极意义，一方面受到宝钢回购的影响，另一方面也由于自身股价长期低迷，估值也比较低。但仅仅依靠“两桶油”还很难判断后市，只能说对短期下跌起到了支撑。

ChenXi：“Two barrels of oil”Often there will be moved，In the present position moved its positive significance，On the one hand the buyback by the influence of baosteel，On the other hand also because of its own stock long-term downturn，Valuations are relatively low。But only rely on“Two barrels of oil”Also it is difficult to judge the market outlook，Can only say that to short-term down played a support。

　　由于周一市场杀跌现象比较惨烈，那么周二就存在修复的需要，但我们要看到周二的反弹一是没有成交量，二是均线压力没有冲过去，尾盘还回落了一些，留个上影，实际上还是偏弱，因此还很难说已经止跌了。成交量低迷是近期的一个常态，从绝对值来看，都约五六百亿的样子，交投非常的清淡，显示大家对市场的信心不足。在市场低位时，通常成交量也不会很大，如果成交量继续缩小，比如到300亿左右，有可能出现地量地价的现象，就可能会反弹。从目前情况来看，8月收阴的概率偏大。

On Monday the market due to industrial phenomenon is quite deadly，Then there is the need of repair on Tuesday，But we want to see a rebound Tuesday there is no volume，The second is all line pressure not blunt past，End dish also fell some，Leave a Shanghai film，In fact it is weak，So it is difficult to say has the reason。Volume downturn is a recent normal，See from the absolute value，All about 560 billion appearance，Trading is very light，Show you the market lack of confidence。In the market when low，Usually volumes are also not very big，If the volume continued to shrink，For example to around 30 billion，There may be of the phenomenon of land price，May rebound。From the current situation，August the probability of the Yin too big。

　　姜丕军：纵观A股历史上“两桶油”的历次拉升，往往谈不上是好现象，个人认为这一次也不例外。“两桶油”的拉升，要么是油价上涨促使其盈利预期提升，要么是有大资金在拉升指数，掩护其他股票中的资金出逃。从最近国内外油价变动情况来看，显然并非前一个因素，后者的可能性很大。昨日虽然股指上涨，但成交量却比前几天萎缩不少，这是个非常不好的信号，一方面进一步验证了“两桶油”拉升的“玄机”，另一方面也说明市场人气的低迷和心态的谨慎，所以我认为周二的上涨只是下跌中继，未来几天，或还有大跌发生，8月收阴几乎是确定的。

JiangPiJun：Throughout A share history“Two barrels of oil”All previous pull to rise，Often far from is a good phenomenon，Personally think that this time is not exceptional also。“Two barrels of oil”Pull up，Or is the rise in oil prices led to the earnings expectations in ascension，Either is a big money in dragging litre of index，The cover of the other stock funds run away。From the recent oil price fluctuation situation at home and abroad，Obviously before is not a factor，The latter possibility is very large。Although the stock index rise yesterday，But volume is better than a few days ago many atrophy，This is a very bad sign，On the one hand is further validated“Two barrels of oil”Pull litres of“mystery”，On the other hand also shows that the market popular downturn and mentality care，So I think that Tuesday's rise just fall relay，The next few days，Or and crash occurred，August the Yin is almost certain。

　　A股目前有没有投资吸引力？答案是有的。从整体估值来看，目前A股平均市盈率只有11倍多，换算成年收益率，也就是大约8%，这不但比银行存款要高，也要高于绝大多数固定收益类理财产品。但同时我们也要看到，当前市场的两级分化现象非常严重，只有那些被高估的成长股也大幅回调后，市场风险才谈得上基本释放。

A shares currently have investment attraction？The answer is some。From the whole valuation to see，At present A share average p/e ratio only 11 times more，Conversion adult rate of return，Also is about 8%，This not only higher than bank deposit，Also higher than the vast majority of fixed income kind of financial products。But at the same time we also want to see，The current market two stage differentiation phenomenon is very serious，Only those who overvalued growth stock also after back sharply，Market risk just talk to go up basic release。

转融通难撼估值中枢 Turn financing difficult to shake valuation center

　　《大众证券报》：转融通业务规则近期发布，先转融资后转融券的安排，预计会给市场“做多”带来1200亿元的增量资金支持。但也有观点认为做空时代将全面到来，周一A股大跌即是预演。您认为该规则将如何影响市场？是否会导致A股的估值中枢下移？

《Public stock certificate report》：Turn accommodation business rules recently released，First turn turn after financing securities loan arrangements，Is expected to give the market“Do more than”Bring 120 billion yuan of incremental funding。But there are ideas that do empty time will be fully come，A shares plunged Monday is rehearsal。Do you think the rules will affect how market？Whether it will lead to A share valuations central down？

　　陈曦：转融通主要是提供了一个通道，像一个工具，做多还是做空还要看市场的选择。在目前市场成交量低迷的情况下，转融通对市场的影响有限。现在开通的是转融资，转融券等到条件成熟时再做。转融资就是为了做多，目前状况下，谁会放大杠杆做多？这个可能性不大，除非市场好起来了。等融资融券业务成熟以后，才能说做空时代将全面到来。市场到目前的位置，也很难再大幅做空，收益风险会很高。因此我觉得周一A股大跌是因为转融通业务推出的说法并不准确。同时，我也不认为转融通会导致A股的估值中枢下移，转融通仅仅是市场多了一个工具，A股的价值中枢并不是由外在工具决定的，而由内在因素决定，比如由上市公司的盈利、投资者信心以及利率水平来决定。

ChenXi：Turn accommodation is mainly provides a channel，As a tool，Do more or the short depends on the choice of the market。In the current market downturn volume of cases，Turn to market finance limited impact。Now open is the financing，Turn loaning wait for conditions to be perfect to do。Turn the financing is to do more，Under the current status，Who will enlarge lever to do more？The possibility is not big，Unless the market better。Margin business such as mature later，To say do empty time will be fully come。Market to the present position，Also it is difficult to make empty again greatly，Income risk will be high。So I think A shares plunged Monday because of refinancing of the launch is not accurate。At the same time，I also don't think refinancing will lead to A share valuations central down，Refinancing market is only one more tool，The value of A share of the central and not by the external tool decision，The internal factors，For example by appear on the market the company's profits、Investor confidence and interest rates to decide。

　　姜丕军：对于普通投资者来说，转融通改变了以前只能单向做多的投资方式。就整个市场而言，A股的估值中枢，还是由宏观层面的信息所决定的，而转融通只是个工具，它会加大以估值中枢为中轴的振幅，并不会导致估值中枢的偏移。记者 刘扬 艾凌羽

JiangPiJun：For ordinary investors，Refinancing changed once only unidirectional do more investment。In the whole market，A share valuations center，Or the macroscopic level information of decision，And turned in the accommodation is just a tool，It will increase to valuation for the central axis of the amplitude，Will not lead to valuation central offset。Reporter LiuYang YiLingYu