8月29日沪市下探2051.77点，再创三年新低。经历了2453以来连续17周下跌，形成6124以来最长下跌周期之后，市场最关注的问题，莫过于何时见底？

On August 29, Shanghai dipped below 2051.77 points，Create a new low for three years。Experienced continuous 17 weeks since 2453 fall，Form the longest since 6124 after the down cycle，The market's most concerned problems，When see bottom way？

　　据和讯网调查，大部分网友认为沪市本周会跌破2000大关，要跌至1800点才能见底。笔者认为只要取消10%的红利税，大底将提升10%。即假如取消红利税前市场在1800点附近见底，那么，取消红利税后市场完全可能在2000附近见底。

According to HeXunWang survey，Most netizens think that Shanghai will this week below 20 2000 mark，Want to fall to 1800 points to see bottom。The author thinks that as long as cancel 10% of red profit tax，Outsole will be increased by 10%。That is if cancel the dividend tax in market near 1800 see bottom，so，Cancel the bonus after-tax market completely may be in 2000 saw near the bottom。

　　那么，为什么取消10%的红利税，A股大底将提升10%？

so，Why to cancel 10% of red profit tax，A shares outsole will be increased by 10%？

取消红利税 A股估值底提升10% Cancel the red profit tax A share valuations bottom 10% increased

　　首先，取消红利税，A股估值底提升10%。

First of all，Cancel the red profit tax，A share valuations bottom 10% increased。

　　截止8月29日，上交所公布的A股平均市盈率为11.05倍，创历史新低。即使从A股TTM市盈率来看，目前仅为13.4倍左右，低于历史大底998点时的19.01倍，也低于08年上证综指1664点时的13.68倍。尤其是，代表蓝筹股的沪深300市盈率与道指及恒指市盈率相当。然而，尽管管理层十余次公开呼吁蓝筹股具备罕见的投资价值，鼓励长线资金入市，但是沪深300市盈率近期连创2012年新低，让崇尚价值投资的投资者苦不堪言。为什么沪深300市盈率与道指及恒指市盈率相当，蓝筹股依然跌跌不休？

By August 29,，ShangJiaoSuo published A share average p/e ratio is 11.05 times，Record lows。Even from A share TTM p/e ratio to see，Currently, only 13.4 times the left and right sides，Below the history outsole 998 points of 19.01 times，Also lower than Shanghai composite index 1664 point 13.68 times。especially，The blue-chip csi 300 p/e ratio and the dow and join the p/e ratio is quite。however，Although the management more than 10 times public calls for blue chip have rare investment value，Encourage long-term funds to enter the market，But recent csi 300 p/e ratio and low even in 2012，Let advocate the value investment investors suffer unspeakably。Why csi 300 p/e ratio and the dow and join the p/e ratio is quite，Blue chip still stumbling endlessly？

　　虽然蓝筹股跌跌不休与实体经济增长持续滑落的基本面有关，但更为重要的是，A股蓝筹股股息率与分红率远低于成熟股市蓝筹股，实际估值水平远高于后者。

Although blue chip stumbling endlessly and entity, economic growth continues to slide the fundamentals of relevant，But even more important，A shares blue chip stock dividend rate and dividends rate is far lower than mature stock market blue chip，Practical valuation levels far higher than the latter。

　　例如在美国现金分红占净利润的比例大都在50%以上，在金融危机前股息率为4%以上，而我国2011年分红金额占当年净利润的比例仅为25.8%，实际支付股息率为1.82%。而蓝筹股股息率与分红率低，与红利税设计不合理有重大关系

For example, in the United States accounted for the proportion of net cash dividends are mostly in more than 50%，In the financial crisis before dividend rate is more than 4%，And our country in 2011 the share out bonus amount accounted for the proportion of the net profit is only 25.8%，The actual pay a dividend rate was 1.82%。And the blue chip stock dividend rate and low rate of dividend，And the red profit tax design is not reasonable have significant relationship

　　根据《

According to《个人所得税 Individual income tax》有关规定，个人投资者从股市中所取得的股息、红利所得需按照20%的比例缴纳个人所得税。2005年6月13日，财税部门将红利税调整为减半征收，以10%的比例计征。即使10%的红利税也与目前管理层鼓励价值投资、引导长线资金入市的理念向左。因为只有长线资金才注重现金分红，而短中线资金则追求短线差价与波段套利。

》Relevant provisions，Individual investors from the stock market the dividend、Dividend income in accordance with the proportion of 20% to pay individual income tax。On June 13, 2005，Finance and tax departments will be red profit tax levied for adjustment，With 10% of the scale assessment。Even 10% of the profits and the red also management encourages the value investment、Lead long term capital listed concept to the left。Because only long term capital will pay attention to cash dividends，And short center capital is the pursuit of short term price differentials and band arbitrage。

　　长久以来，上市公司缺乏现金分红的意愿、长期不分红的“铁公鸡“公司大行其道而广为市场所诟病。这种现象其实和红利税有较大的关系。由于上市公司现金分红需要扣缴现金分红总额10%的红利税，而股价却按照现金分红总额来除权，因此现金分红之后股东的实际权益要减少10%。因此很多投资者宁可上市公司转增股本（公积金转增股本无需扣税）也不要现金分红。同样，上市公司为了迎合投资者的口味也缺乏现金分红的动力。经过数年宣传教育，目前上市公司现金分红的积极性已大为提高。统计

For a long time，Listed companies lack the will of the cash dividends、Long-term don't share out bonus“miser“The company is popular and widely for market。This kind of phenomenon in fact and red profit tax have bigger concern。Due to the listed company cash share out bonus, need to withholding cash share out bonus, 10% of the amount of the red profit tax，The price is according to the total cash dividends to eliminate advantageous position，So after the actual cash dividends shareholder rights and interests are reduced by 10%。So many investors would rather listed companies turn add equity（Accumulation fund converted into increased capital without tax）Don't cash dividends。The same，Listed companies in order to cater to the taste of the investors also lack cash share out bonus power。After several years of publicity and education，At present the listed company cash share out bonus, enthusiasm has greatly improved。statistics数据 data显示，我国境内市场2011年共有1348家上市公司实现现金分红，比2010年增加317家。现金分红金额为3900亿元，增幅为28.99%。但是与国外成熟资本市场相比，仍有很大差距。

display，Within the territory of China market in 2011 a total of 1348 listed companies realize cash dividends，More than 2010 an increase of 317。Cash share out bonus amount of $390 billion，Growth was 28.99%。But compared with foreign mature capital market，There is still a large gap。

　　而且，尤其重要的是，目前10%的红利税，导致上市公司的理论估值就要打10%的折扣。如果能够取消10%红利税，即使上市公司名义上现金分红率不变、股息率不变，实际股息率也随之提高10%，A股的估值水平就会随之提高10%，这对于维持目前股市的稳定有极大的作用。

and，Especially important，At present 10% red profit tax，Led to the theory of listed company valuations will play a discount of 10%。If can cancel 10% red profit tax，Even if the listed company nominal cash dividends rate unchanged、Dividend rate constant，The actual dividend rate increases 10%，A stock valuation levels will then increased by 10%，This to maintain the stability of the stock market has a great role。