本报讯 大盘连创新低已经压得券商集体“禁声”，但是随着宝钢回购以及市场投资价值显现，近日有券商开始大胆空翻多，提示投资者准备迎接9月转折性行情。

Report from our correspondent grail even innovation has low pressure to brokers collective“silence”，But as the baosteel repurchase and market investment value appeared，Recently had the brokers began to bold airspring much，Prompt investors are prepared to meet September head-turning quotation。

　　西南证券(600369,股吧)昨日发布市场策略称，从外部环境看，9月份是一个关键性的时点。首先，德国将于9月中旬就修改宪法以移交部分决策权予欧盟的提案，进行史上首次公投；其次，欧洲央行可能在9月中旬公布干预债市、应对欧债危机的具体措施。加上全球主要央行共同采取宽松货币政策的效应，则有望促成一轮转市行情。

Southwest securities(600369,guba)Released yesterday said the market strategy，See from the external environment，September is a key point。First of all，Germany will in mid-september will now change the constitution to hand over part of the European Union decision-making power to the proposal，For the first time in the history of the referendum；secondly，The European central bank may be in mid-september announced bond market intervention、Deal with the debt crisis of the specific measures。And one of the world's major central Banks take together loose monetary policy effect，It is expected to contribute to a rotary city market。

　　“历史上，9月份形成阶段性底部的概率较大。”西南证券策略分析师张刚表示，如2009年9月份形成当年下半年的最低点；2010年9月份之后迎来一波500点左右的升势；2011年9月份之后，在10月份形成2307点的阶段性底部，此后形成200点的升势。只是在底部形成前，A股均会呈现十分惨烈的跌势。

“history，September formation stage at the bottom of the larger probability。”Southwest securities strategy analyst dragon said，Such as in September 2009 in the second half of the year low formation；2010 years after September in a wave of about 500 points upward trend；2011 years after September，Formed in October 2307 points at the bottom of the stage，Since then form 200 point upward trend。Just at the bottom before formation，A shares are can present very deadly fall。

　　东北证券(000686,股吧)策略分析师沈正阳认为，当下是短期黎明前的黑暗，等待并关注未来一段时间经济数据的披露和政策面的推进。8月份信贷数据及工业产出数据相对7月略有改善，以及降准和股市减税政策的兑现，是未来反弹的主要催化剂。

Northeast securities(000686,guba)Strategy analyst ShenZhengYang think，The present is short-term the darkness before dawn，Waiting for a period of time and focus on the future economic data and the disclosure of the policy, propulsion。August credit data and industrial output data relative July improve slightly，And drop quasi and stock market tax cuts to cash，Is the main catalyst for future rebound。

　　技术面上，张刚认为，从月K线上看，大盘在经历了连续三个月下跌之后，8月份目前形成带上影线的丁字星，5月均线和10月均线的下行趋势维持。不过，历史数据显示，自2004年9月份以来，上证综合指数便没有出现过连续四个月的跌势，即便8月份出现连续第四根下跌的月K线，那么9月份形成最后一跌的概率较大。

Technology surface，Dragon think，From the month K online to see，In the market has experienced three consecutive months after the fall，August formation at present with the t star today，5 the average monthly line and 10 standard line descending trend to maintain。but，History data shows，Since the 2004 years since September，The Shanghai composite index has not appeared for four consecutive months of fall，Even if August consecutive fourth root falling month K line，So in September last fall form the probability of large。

　　“近期新增A股开户数连续三周回升，说明尽管大盘创新低，但市场有一定的抄底意愿。”张刚表示。

“Recent new a-share accounts continuous three weeks picks up，Although the market innovation that low，But the market has certain copy the bottom intend to。”Dragon said。

　　从机构持仓成本看，张刚分析称，半年报将透露出机构投资者在6月底2200点附近时的持仓状况。以7月、8月的两市低迷成交情况看，多数持股被套。这些机构重仓股既可以作为判断主流机构操作动向的依据，也可以成为持仓配置的选择。

From the institutional ownership cost to see，Dragon analysis says，Semi-annual report will show institutional investors at the end of June 2200 point near the open condition。In July、August two cities at a low clinchs a deal，Most of the shareholding quilt cover。These institutions heavy warehouse stock can be as judgment mainstream institutions operating trend basis，Also can become position configuration choice。

　　因此张刚建议，目前投资者可等待欧债危机引爆导致的加速下挫，关注机构重仓股的动态，并筹集资金储备弹药准备在9月出手。沈正阳也表示，市场处于近3年来低点，向下空间不大，任何沽空的行为短期有较大风险。建议关注当下受转型刺激的环保、水务等的中长期机会。

Therefore dragon Suggestions，Now investors can wait for the debt crisis to detonate in acceleration，Attention mechanism heavy warehouse strands of dynamic，And raise funds reserve ammunition in September to make moves。ShenZhengYang also said，Market in the recent 3 years in low，Down the space is not large，Any short selling of short-term behavior has great risk。Pay attention to the suggestion by the transformation of environmental stimulation、Water of medium and long-term opportunities。

　　记者 李宇欣

Reporter gray