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　　国际评级机构总是能在一些特别有意思的时点发表评级报告，要么是在有重大的政府会议将要召开或政策措施将要推出之时，要么是在有重大国际外交活动发生、大国首脑会晤商讨重大议题之时，又或者是其他什么时候，反正所选择的时点一般都比较敏感和特别。

International credit rating agency can always in some special interesting points of the credit rating report published,Or is in a major government meeting will be held or policy measures are going to introduce of,Or is in a major international diplomatic activity occurred/Powers meeting to discuss the major issues,Or is it the other what time,Anyway, the choice of time it is generally more sensitive and special.

　　这一次，穆迪再次落入这一窠臼。

This time,Moody's once again fall into this path.

　　9月3日，穆迪将欧元区长期信用评级展望由稳定降为负面，目前该区的信用评级为Aaa级。穆迪同时表示，如果德国、法国、英国及荷兰四国的评级被调降的话，则欧元区的评级也将被相应调降，原因是这四国的财政收入占整个欧元区的45%左右，是欧元区的最后救助者。

September 3,Moody's long-term credit rating outlook will the euro area by stable drop for negative,At present the credit rating for the Aaa level.Moody also said,If Germany/France/British and Dutch quartet rating was a reduction in words,The eurozone rating will also be corresponding reduction,The reason for this is that this shikoku financial income accounts for about 45% of the whole euro zone,The eurozone is the last savior.

　　而且，该机构还表示，欧元区前景展望变为负面，本身就反映了该机构对这四个成员国长期信用评级的负面展望。早在今年7月，穆迪就将德国、荷兰及卢森堡的长期信用评级前景展望调降为负面，而法国及英国也分别于去年10月及今年2月被调整为负面。

and,The agency also said,The eurozone prospect into a negative,Itself reflects the agency for the four countries long-term credit rating of the negative outlook.As early as in July this year,Moody's will Germany/The Netherlands and Luxembourg's long-term credit rating prospect for negative reduction,The French and British also separately in October last year and this year's February has been adjusted for negative.

　不厚道的行径 Unkind ways

　　为何说这个时点有点特别呢？我们可以看一下在这时点前后发生的一些国际大事件。

Why to say this time is a little special?We can look at this time point happened before and after some of the international big events.

　　一是8月30日及31日，德国总理默克尔访华，这是她今年来的第二次访华，也是2006年就任总理以来的第六次。在欧债危机依然肆虐及中欧光伏产业存在摩擦的背景下，再看看参加此次会议的部门规模，此次访问的重要性不言而喻。

One is on August 30 and 31,German chancellor Angela merkel's visit,This is her second visit to this year,As prime minister in 2006 was since the sixth.In the debt crisis still indulge in wilful persecution and central European pv industry exist under the background of friction,See again, to attend the conference department scale,The importance of the visit is self-evident.

　　在解决欧债危机的过程中，欧洲一直在寻求中国的支持，而中国也一直对此表示出积极态度，包括先后购买西班牙国债及为救助葡萄牙而发行的债券，同时增加对欧洲国家的基础设施的直接投资。此外中国还一改过去的态度，同意向国际货币基金组织注资，这也算是在间接帮助欧洲。

In solving the debt crisis in the process,Europe has been seeking China's support,China has expressed a positive attitude,Including successively to buy Treasury bonds and Spain for salvage Portugal and issue of bonds,At the same time increase the European countries infrastructure of direct investment.Besides China also change the attitude of the past,Agree to the international monetary fund capital injection,This also is regarded as in the indirect help Europe.

　　毫无疑问，欧债危机将注定再次成为此次中德两国领导人重点讨论的话题之一。按照目前的世界政治（今年几乎所有大国都面临着政府换届及人事变动）经济形势（经济仍然困难重重），以及两者间的交互影响，维持一个稳定的世界格局，是所有大国共同的目标。此外，考虑到中德及中欧间过往已有的合作传统，中国继续出资购买欧洲债券应该是没有悬念的。

There is no doubt that,The debt crisis will be doomed to once again become the leaders of the two countries China one of the topics discussed.According to the present world politics(This year almost all powers are faced with the change of the government and the personnel changes)Economic situation(The economy remains very difficult),And the interaction between them,To maintain a stable pattern of the world,Is all power common goal.In addition,Considering the sino-german and central Europe past existing between the traditional cooperation,China continues to contributive buy European bond should be no suspense of.

　　这种支持对中国、德国、欧洲甚至全球都会具有举足轻重的作用。因此，中国对欧洲的重要程度正在上升，欧洲对中国的倚重也就相应变大，尽管这种影响还不足以引起他人的担忧，但这种格局的变化还是会对各自力量的消长产生一些影响。

This kind of support to China/Germany/Europe and even global will plays a decisive role.therefore,China to Europe's important degree is on the rise,European dependence on China also corresponding bigger,Although this kind of influence is not enough to cause other people's concerns,But this kind of pattern changes will still be on their own strength and produce some influence.

　　比如，中国增加对欧洲的国债购买力度，就极有可能会减持美国国债（尽管这样做也存在一些负面影响），中国央行也表达过类似观点，这明显会减少对美国国债的需求及资金流入。再比如，从国际政治角度而言，欧洲传统上与美国一样属于西方世界，美国对欧洲事务一直拥有主导权，如果欧洲对中国的依赖增加，美国人心里当然不痛快。

For example,China increase the European national debt purchase strength,Will most likely to reduce their holdings of us Treasury(Though it also has some negative effect),China's central bank also expressed a similar view,This obviously will reduce demand for Treasury bonds and capital inflows.For another example,From the international political perspective,The European tradition and like the United States belongs to the western world,The United States of Europe affairs has always had dominant right,If Europe increased reliance on China,The American heart of course not time.

　　因此，就在中德两国领导人会晤后的第三天（9月1日及2日为周末），即9月3日，穆迪即发表对欧元区的评级报告，无论这一举动是其自主行为也好，也无论是别人授意也罢，其用意很明显，就是提醒德国及欧洲，要他们认清楚谁才是真正的盟友及可依靠者。

therefore,In sino-german the two leaders of the third day after meeting(September 1 and 2, for the weekend),Namely on September 3,,Moody's is published on the euro area's credit rating report,No matter the move is its independent behavior or,Also whether or incite others,Its intention is very clear,Is to remind Germany and Europe,Will they recognize that who is the real Allies and rely on the person.

　　像穆迪这种“撒沙子”的做派早已不是什么新鲜事。自从欧洲陷入债务危机之后，穆迪总是在最关键的时刻发表评级报告推波助澜，打压欧元，其评级报告及相关言论早已不再“纯粹”，而是带上了种种其他色彩和目的。这种不厚道的行径已经引起了欧洲诸多官员的不耻。

Like moody this"And sand"The pies already is not what's new.Since Europe into debt crisis later,Moody's always in the most crucial time publish the credit rating report add fuel to the fire,Crack down on the euro,The credit rating report and related opinion no longer"pure",But take a variety of other colour and purpose.The unkind behavior has caused many European officials not shame.

　　如果说这一猜测略显牵强的话，那再看看最新的外交活动。9月4日晚，美国国务卿希拉里抵达北京，开始对中国进行访问。虽然此次访问是受中国外交部部长杨洁篪邀请，但从希拉里在到访中国前后的其他行程来看，只不过是美国实施“重回”亚洲战略的外交行动而已。在掌握亚洲话语权的同时，它是不会放弃对欧洲的主导话语权的。

If this guess slightly far-fetched words,That will see the latest diplomatic activities.On September 4, late,The American secretary of state Hillary Clinton arrived in Beijing,Began to visit China.Although the visit by China's foreign minister Yang jiechi is invited,But from Hillary Clinton visited China before and after the other travel to see,Is only the U.S. to implement"Return to"Asia's strategic diplomatic action.In the mastery of the discourse power in Asia at the same time,It is will not give up to the dominant discourse right of Europe.

　逼迫欧洲央行 Persecuted the European central bank

　　除了提醒德国及欧洲“认清形势”外，穆迪选择在此时点调降欧元区评级前景展望，所针对的还有另一个比较大的即将在此时点后发生的事件，即欧洲中央银行将于9月6日举行会议商讨应对债务危机的新举措，其中有可能推出欧洲银行购买欧元区成员国三年期的国债。

In addition to remind Germany and Europe"Recognize the situation"outside,Moody's selection in at point a reduction in the euro zone rating prospect,To have another larger will at this time after the events of point,The European central bank will on September 6, held a meeting to discuss new measures to deal with debt crisis,There are may launch European Banks to buy the eurozone member three-year bonds.

　　据媒体报道，欧洲央行行长德拉吉在刚结束的一次欧洲议会的听证会上表示，中央银行将可以向陷入高借贷成本的成员国购买三年期的政府债券。购债建议已经不是新闻，新的是究竟会购买什么样的债券。所以，穆迪此时的举动带有向欧洲央行施压的意图，迫使欧洲央行在解决欧债危机方面不要再犹豫。

According to media reports,The European central bank President Della auspicious in the aftermath of a European parliament hearing said,The central bank will be able to fall into high borrowing costs members purchase three-year government bonds.Purchase debt advice is not news,The new is whether will buy what kind of bonds.so,Moody's now move to the European central bank with the intention of the pressure,Forced the European central bank in solving the debt crisis don't hesitate.

　　其实，即使没有穆迪的额外施压，欧洲也会按照自己的轨迹前进，并不会因为穆迪的言论而有丝毫改变。7月初的欧盟峰会讨论通过了由欧洲理事会主席范龙佩提出的《走向一个真正的经济与货币联盟》，为未来欧洲走向提供了框架性的愿景，而7月底德拉吉公开宣称会尽一切努力挽救欧元，并发出“相信我，这就足够了”的豪言壮语。所以，穆迪的影响可以说无关痛痒。

In fact,Even without moody's extra pressure,Europe also can according to their own path forward,Will not because of moody's speech and any change.In early July eu summit to discuss passed by the European council chairman FanLongPei proposed[To a real economic and monetary union],For future European to provide the framework vision,And the end of July Della auspicious publicly announced that will make every effort to save the euro,And give the"Believe me,It is enough"The grandiloquence.so,Moody's influence can say pointless.

　　既然如此，穆迪仍然不会歇着，仍然会时不时地跳出来，而且煞费苦心地“择时”，无非是想显示自己的存在及价值，提升自身的影响力。

so,Moody's still not at roost,Will still be regularly jump out,And painstakingly"timing",It is to want to display own existence and value,To raise their influence.

　　金融危机推倒了一批昔日的明星机构，但也成就了一批悲观派预言家，而评级机构也许是另一类受益者。平心而论，未来的经济将是一个风险日益增加的社会，评级机构的存在有利于及时给人们预警，准确的话，它们则是预警机，不准的话则会成为空喊“狼来了”的市场轰炸机，如果惹恼了官方并与各国政府发生口战，则变成战斗机，无事找事。

Financial crisis knocked down a batch of former star mechanism,But the achievement is also a batch of pessimistic sent the prophet,And the rating agencies may be another beneficiaries.Give the devil his due,The future of the economy will be a risk increasing social,Rating agencies is favorable for timely warning to people,correctly,They are awacs,No words will become positions"Wolf has come"Market bomber,If annoy the official and with governments mouth war happened,Is become fighter,No matter for trouble.