（上接B09版）

(On joint B09 edition)

　　银行存款定价能力缺失

Bank deposit pricing power loss

　　新京报：6月份开启本轮利率市场化改革关键一步，从数据上看，六大行的存款占比没有变化。你如何评价这次改革的作用？

The Beijing news:June open this interest rate marketization reform key step,From the data on the,Six ways of deposits than did not change.How do you evaluate the role of this reform?

　　鲁政委：单就这么两次调整影响是有限的，这次调整的最大意义在于打响了利率市场化“堡垒攻坚战”的第一枪。

Lu zhengwei:Single so two adjustment influence is limited,The adjustment of meaning lies in the largest launched the marketization of interest rate"Fort tough sell"First gun.

　　从现在各家银行的反应来看，目前在贷款方面情况比较好。虽然央行将贷款利率的下浮空间扩大到0.7倍，但对银行的定价影响不大，银行并没有因为下限扩大了就一调到底，这体现了银行在贷款价格方面的定价能力。可以说，在贷款上并没有出现恶性竞争。

From now Banks' reaction to see,At present in loans situation is better.Although the central bank will loan interest rates down space to expand to 0.7 times,But the bank's pricing the impact is not big,Bank and not because of lower limit expanded will find exactly,This reflects the bank loan price of pricing power.Can say,In the loan and did not appear malignant competition.

　　但是在存款方面暴露了一些问题。目前出现三大梯队，工、农、中、建、交、邮储6大国有银行形成了第一梯队，短期的定期存款上浮1.08倍。第二梯队是以招行、中信、华夏等为代表的股份制商业银行，短期存款上浮到顶。第三梯队的城市商业银行除了将短期定存利率上浮到顶外，中长期定存利率也调整至上限。

But in the savings front exposed some problems.There are three echelon,work/agriculture/in/built/into/YouChu 6 big state-owned Banks to form the first echelon,Short-term deposit rise 1.08 times.The second tier is China merchants bank/citic/Huaxia etc as a representative of joint-stock commercial Banks,Short-term deposit ascents reach the summit.The third echelon city commercial Banks will be in addition to short-term fixed deposit interest rate floating outside the summit,Long-term fixed deposit interest rates also adjust to upper limit.

　　央行之所以推出浮动区间措施而非继续先前的统一的基准利率，应该是希望不同机构能够根据自身情况选择差异化的策略，就是希望出现百花齐放，这才是市场化真正的含义，但结果这种表现并不突出。所有机构行为的高度一致，暗示了此次政策调整未能完全达到预期效果，也反映出在银行存款的定价环境和能力上还存在一些突出问题。

The central bank introduced floating interval measures rather than continue to previous unified benchmark interest rate,Should be hope different agencies can choose according to oneself circumstance differentiation strategy,Let flowers bloom is to appear,This is the true meanings of marketization,But the results this performance is not outstanding.All institutions behavior of the highly consistent,Suggested that the policy adjustment not fully achieved the desired results,Also reflects in the bank deposit pricing environment and capability also has some prominent problems.

　　新京报：银行在存款定价上存在问题的原因何在？是否是调整不到位？

The Beijing news:The bank deposit pricing problem why?If adjustment does not reach the designated position?

　　鲁政委：最现实问题是贷存比约束。为什么有钱的银行要抢存款，没钱的银行也抢存款，存款为什么这么重要？

Lu zhengwei:The real problem is DaiCunBi constraint.Why rich bank want to rob a deposit,No money bank also rob deposit,Deposit why so important?

　　因为根据目前的监管规则，银行的贷存比必须保持在75%以内。也就是说，在分业监管的情况下，银行的业务基本上就只是放贷款；规定存贷比不得高于75%，要放贷款，就必须先抓“存款”。所以，“存款立行”成了中国银行(601988,股吧)业的特色。

Because according to the present regulation rules,The bank DaiCunBi must be kept within 75%.That is,Under the condition of the supervised respectively,Bank business basically is to put the loan;Provisions deposit-loan ratio shall not be higher than 75%,To loan,We must first catch"deposit".so,"Deposit made line"Became the bank of China(601988,guba)Industry characteristics.

　　其实，如果没有我国目前相当保守的贷存比指标管理，银行开展贷款原本不是非得有“存款”的，只要有足够的资金来源，只要能够确保期限错配和流动性安全，就可以稳健开展贷款业务。

In fact,If there is no at present quite conservative DaiCunBi index management,Banks loan was not have to have"deposit"of,As long as there is enough capital source,As long as can ensure maturity mismatch and liquidity security,Can steady development loan business.

　　第二个原因是，存款利率如何确定没有参照。银行在贷款定价方面可以看企业发行的债券利率。但存款利率怎么定，银行不知道，在市场上没有哪个可以给存款利率做参照的。

The second reason is,Deposit interest rate how to make sure no reference.Bank loan pricing in can see enterprise bonds interest rates.But the deposit interest rate how to decide,The bank does not know the,In the market no can give deposit interest rates to do.

　　我建议推出CD大额可转让存单。大额可转让存单的持有人到期可向银行提取本息；在未到期时，如需现金，可以在市场上转让。

I suggest launch CD CDS.CDS due to the bank of the holder can be extracted principal and interest;Before expiration of,If you want to cash,In the market can be transferred.

　　寻找利率之锚

Interest rates for the anchor

　　新京报：利率市场化改革意味着目前的存贷款基准利率将逐渐失去风向标的作用，市场化的基准利率应该如何培育？

The Beijing news:Interest rate marketization reform means that the current benchmark interest rates will gradually lose the role of wind vane,The benchmark interest rate marketization should be how to cultivate?

　　鲁政委：从成熟市场经济国家来看，货币当局一般都选择了两周以内的利率作为政策目标利率。根据我国市场的现状，隔夜或一周可以考虑成为央行选择的指标利率期限。

Lu zhengwei:From the mature market economy countries come to see,Monetary authorities generally choose the two weeks of less than interest rates as policy target rate.According to the present situation of our country market,Overnight or a week or can consider to become the central bank interest rate term selection index.

　　我注意到，最近中国央行似乎在有意识地做一些培育市场基准利率的尝试，但操作行为仍不稳定、意图还不清晰。从7月初开始每周都有逆回购，而在过去逆回购是罕见的事情。

I noticed,China's central bank recently seems to be consciously doing some the cultivation of market benchmark interest rate attempt,But the operation behavior is still unstable/Intention is not clear.From the beginning of every week reverse repurchase,In the past reverse repurchase is a rare thing.

　　但目前存在的问题是，目前主打的7天逆回购的利率波动还较大，从3.95%一度下调到3.30%，然后又升到3.35%进而3.40%，在“加大微调力度”的宏观政策总基调下，这有些让人费解。因为政策指标利率的特点是，除非货币当局对经济形势的看法发生改变，否则不应该变动利率，如果这样，那么逆回购利率为何会出现上升呢？

But the existing problems is,At present main 7 days of reverse repurchase interest rate fluctuation is bigger,Once cut from 3.95% to 3.30%,Then up to 3.35% and 3.40%,in"Increase fine strength"The macroscopic policy under total tone,This may seem surprising.Because of the characteristics of the interest rate policy index is,Unless the monetary authorities to economic situation view change,Or should not change interest rates,If so,Then reverse repurchase rates rise why will appear?

　　新京报：目前市场上哪个品种的利率具备成为市场利率的潜力呢？

The Beijing news:On the market at present which kinds of interest rates have become the potential of the market interest rates??

　　鲁政委：新选择的政策指标利率，最好能够满足以下几个特点：首先，期限不能太长，一般来说两周以内的利率更为合适，对于我国可能是七天或者隔夜更合适。其次，避免同时控制多个期限的利率，多个期限使得央行很难保持行为的逻辑一致性，从而会增加政策噪声和市场理解的困难。第三，央行应避免非公开因定向操作所带来的金融机构道德风险，同时应注意平衡货币市场上的寡头垄断力量，避免寡头垄断行为对政策传导信号的阻滞。

Lu zhengwei:The new choice of policy interest rate index,Best can satisfy the following several characteristics:First of all,Time not too long,Generally within two weeks of the interest rate more appropriate,For our country may be seven days or overnight more appropriate.secondly,Avoid and control multiple term interest rates,Multiple period makes the central bank is difficult to keep the behavior of the logical consistency,Thus will increase policy noise and market understanding difficult.The third,The central bank should avoid private for directional operation brought about by the financial institutions moral risk,At the same time should pay attention to balance monetary market monopoly power,Avoid oligopoly behavior to policy transmission signal block.

　　利率市场化不能让银行没饭吃

Interest rate marketization can't let the bank didn't eat for rice

　　新京报：在其他国家利率市场化进程中都出现了银行批量倒闭的情况，这一幕是否也会在中国上演？

The Beijing news:In other countries in the process of marketization of interest rate in the bank collapse of the batch,This scene would also put on in China?

　　鲁政委：我们总是习惯于看到改革的风险而忽视原地踏步的代价，由此导致的结果就是：没有危机就不改革，越重大的改革就必须要深重的危机来倒逼。这显然不是一种好的状态。

Lu zhengwei:We always used to see the risk of reform and ignore the price of mark time,This is the result of:No crisis will not reform,The major reform must be serious crisis to DaoBi.This is obviously not a good state.

　　因此，正确的思路是：看到改革可能出现的风险，更重要的是要找到风险点和控制风险的办法，坚定地把改革推向前进。

therefore,Correct ideas are:See reform possible risks,The more important thing is to find the risk point and control risk measures,Firmly the reform forward.

　　从先行经济体的经验来看，在利率市场化的第一阶段，几乎各个经济体的银行业的净息差都是收窄的。

Leading economies from experience,In the first phase of the interest rate liberalization,Almost all of the economies of the banking industry net spreads are the narrow.

　　这个道理很容易理解：严格的分业监管，就意味着银行只有利差“一碗饭”可以吃，利率市场化，就是要把这仅有的“一碗饭”也让人抢走。所以，在目前分业监管的格局下推进利率市场化，银行业整个行业都会有灭顶之灾，会出系统性风险。

This truth is easy to understand:Strictly supervised respectively,Means that the bank only interest margin"A bowl of rice"Can eat,Interest rate marketization,Is this the only"A bowl of rice"Also let man robbed.so,In the present supervised respectively under the pattern of advance interest rate marketization,Banking the whole industry can have catastrophe,Will the systemic risk.

　　怎么办？很简单，市场竞争就是大家可以互相抢饭吃。如果让银行也可以去抢别人的饭吃（就是综合化经营），那么，最后它就饿不死了，有饿死的也是懒惰的或缺乏竞争力的，但不会整个行业遭遇灭顶之灾。

do?Very simple,The market competition is you can steal each other meal.If the bank can also go to steal other people's food(Is the comprehensive management),so,In the end it is hungry not dead,Have starved to death is lazy or lack of competitiveness,But not the whole industry are totally destroyed.

　　利率市场化适合我国国情？

Interest rate marketization is suitable for China's national conditions?

　　新京报：国内主流的观点认为存款保险制度是利率市场化改革的关键性条件，而且现在监管层的态度也是如此。

The Beijing news:Domestic mainstream the argument that the deposit insurance system is a market-oriented interest rate reform, the critical condition,And now the supervisor's attitude is also so.

　　鲁政委：的确，放眼全球，存款保险制度已成为成熟金融市场中普遍存在的制度安排。从逻辑上说，利率市场化带来的最重要变化，就是银行利差会被显著压缩，由此将使得银行倒闭可能更为常见。银行倒闭了，普通储户的存款应得到保全，否则，大量民众将会失去基本生活保障，影响社会稳定。所以，中国在利率市场化过程中应该优先考虑建立存款保险制度似乎就是顺理成章了。

Lu zhengwei:indeed,Spanning the globe,Deposit insurance system has become a mature financial market is widespread in the institutional arrangements.Logic says,Interest rate marketization brings the most important changes,Is the bank interest margin will be significant compression,This will allow the bank may be more common.Bank went out of business,Ordinary depositors deposit should be preservation,otherwise,A lot of people will lose basic life safeguard,Affect social stability.so,In the process of interest rate liberalization in China should give priority to the establishment of a deposit insurance system seems to be the logical.

　　然而，一个被人们普遍忽略了的极端重要的背景因素就是：我国目前实际上是存在着国家对所有存款全额隐含担保的安排的。此前，我国出现过存款机构倒闭（比如海南发展银行和一些地方农信社），但存款人的全部存款都没有任何损失。

however,A is widely ignored extremely important background factor is:Our country at present is actually exist in all countries full implicit deposit guarantee arrangement.after,Our country appeared deposit institutions failed(Such as hainan development bank and other local rural credit cooperative),But all depositors deposit has no loss.

　　但是，一旦推出存款保险制度，就意味着“国家对存款隐含全额担保”的安排退出了。

but,Once out of the deposit insurance system,Means that"Country to deposit implicit full guarantee"The arrangement of the exit.

　　考虑到作为金融监管部门领导与四大国有银行领导之间存在的互调机制，国家代理人的汇金公司持有大量五大国有银行和邮储股份给老百姓造成的国家隐含担保意味，以及“大而不会倒”的朴素认识，单个账户金额在存款保险额度以上的资金就会迅速向五大国有银行和邮储富集。刚刚设立的村镇银行、城市商业银行将会难以为继。由此，一个本来是为了降低金融机构倒闭后遗症的制度，却直接人为诱发了金融机构的更快倒闭。

Consider as a financial supervision department leadership and four of the big state Banks between leadership of intermodulation mechanism,National agent huijin company hold a lot of five major state-owned Banks and YouChu shares to people caused by the national implicit guarantee means,and"Big and will not fall"Simple know,The amount of individual account in deposit insurance line more money would quickly to the five major state-owned Banks and YouChu enrichment.Just set up towns bank/Urban commercial Banks will be unsustainable.this,One was to reduce the financial institutions closed sequela system,But direct human induced the financial institutions faster collapse.

　　因此，如果眼下要推出存款保险制度，就必须让老百姓意识到所有机构的“权利都是平等的”。

therefore,If the deposit insurance system to launch,We must let the common people aware of all institutions"Rights are equal".

　　新京报：你认为中国的利率市场化过程大概需要多久？

The Beijing news:Do you think China's interest rate marketization process about how long it takes?

　　鲁政委：从宣布放开利率管制到经历利差收窄洗礼后整个市场重归平稳运行，如果照这个标准看，3-5年肯定不行，10年之内能走完已算不错。

Lu zhengwei:From announced the release of interest rates to experience interest margin narrow after baptism the whole market return to smooth running,If according to this standard to see,3-5 years be no good for certain,10 years can go all has fairly good.

　　而且，我不得不提的是，利率市场化马到关前，我们真的想清楚了这个问题吗：利率市场化到底是目标还是手段？

and,I have to mention is,Interest rate marketization horse to close before,We really want to clear this problem:Interest rate marketization is the target or means?

　　现在我国正推进的金融市场化改革，实际上是自觉不自觉地以美国充分竞争的市场模式为蓝本进行的改革，而存款性金融机构提供的服务是具有显著外部性的。

Now China is promoting financial marketization reform,Is actually consciously or unconsciously to the United States fully competitive market model is based on the reform,And deposit sex financial institutions to provide service is a significant externality.

　　经济学原理告诉我们，对于具有显著外部性的产品，并不适合由完全竞争的市场来提供，适度竞争可能更为合适。

Principles of economics tells us,With significant externalities products,Not suitable by the perfectly competitive market to provide,Moderate competition may be more appropriate.

　　由此，一个以充分竞争为导向的利率市场化，是不是适合我国金融业改革的模式？对中国金融市场而言，充分竞争还是适度竞争更加合适，值得我们反思。

this,A full competition as the guidance of interest rate marketization,Is suitable for China's financial reform mode?In terms of financial market in China,Fully competition or moderate competition more appropriate,Worth our reflection.

　　作为美国的近邻，加拿大监管当局也一直认为美国式的金融体系是不稳健的，并不值得效法。

As America's neighbor,Canada regulators have been think American financial system is not steady,Is not worthy of emulation.

　　新京报记者 苏曼丽

The Beijing news reporter SuManLi

　　同题问答

Question and answer questions with

　　“外贸和投资低迷经济便会下跌”

"Foreign trade and investment economic malaise will decrease"

　　新京报：对于中国的诸多经济学人，你最为尊敬的是哪一位？

The Beijing news:For China's many economist,You the most respected is which one?

　　鲁政委：顾准。

Lu zhengwei:gu.

　　新京报：2012年的经济运行到现在，当前的状况，是否有让你很意外的地方？为什么？

The Beijing news:2012 years of economic operation to now,The current status,If there is a make you very unexpected places?why?

　　鲁政委：不太意外。上世纪90年代以来的经济发展经历早已表明：每当外贸疲软和投资低迷同时发生时，中国经济都会出现不可控的下跌。

Lu zhengwei:Not too accident.Since the 1990 s economic development experience that already:Whenever a weak foreign trade and investment slump at the same time occurs,China's economy will appear uncontrollable fall.

　　新京报：近期在市场层面，你认为哪一项改革最值得期待？

The Beijing news:In the near future in the market level,What do you think a reform most is worth looking forward to?

　　鲁政委：人民币汇率形成机制改革。

Lu zhengwei:The RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform.

　　新京报：未来10年，你认为哪一个行业具有投资前景？

The Beijing news:The next 10 years,Which one do you think industry has the investment prospects?

　　鲁政委：医疗保健和环境保护。

Lu zhengwei:Health care and environmental protection.