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私募老王的“九·七”--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-09-08

  7日,9月第一个节气白露,深圳的天却一如往常的炎热。早上8点,记者认识的一位私募经理老王,到达位于福田中心区CBD的办公室。

7,September first solar term white dew,Shenzhen days but as usual hot.At 8 in the morning,Reporter know one private manager Lao wang,Located in the futian central district to CBD office.

  迎接他的是各种券商研报,粗略翻阅后,老王把目光转移到外盘,前一晚外围市场一片向好,一切风平浪静。

To meet him is all sorts of brokers research report,Through rough after,Lao wang look transferred to the outside dish,The night before peripheral market a piece of better off,All calm.

  晨会上,研究员提出券商“口风”生变,“维稳”成为目前市场的关键字。老王手下的研究员指出申万的观点,“8月初市场破2100点,指数反弹70点,接下来如果破2000点,怎么也得反弹100点。如果时间恰当,管理层在"十八大"前对股市维稳,那么反弹可能再延续100点,从时间和空间都值得参与。最后,经济不会有实质性改善,即便到了反弹后期,后知后觉者会再拿"经济企稳"说事,我们要果断抽离。”

Briefings on,Researchers have suggested that brokers"breeze"happen,"Dimensional stability"At present the market become the key word.Lao wang's researchers pointed out that "all point of view,"Early August break 2100 points in the market,Index rebound 70 points,If the next break 2000 points,How also get rebound 100 points.If time appropriate,Management in"Eighteen big"Before the stock market dimensional stability,So rebound may continue 100 points,From the time and space are worth to participate in.finally,The economy will not have substantial improvement,Even in the late rebound,After those know after sleep will take"Economy stabilises"move,We want to resolute pull away."

  当日,中信证券(600030,股吧)(600030.SH)发布《“维稳”与“改良”兼顾的股市改革政策》的市场策略报告认为,今年以来,频繁推出的金融改革政策,是新一轮改革措施的重要组成部分;而最近经济的疲软和资本市场的下跌,可能为利好股市制度改革打开难得的时间窗口。一些兼具短期刺激效果和长期改良作用的政策,在这样的窗口内,往往被政策当局作为攻守兼备的妙手推出。

On that day,Citic securities(600030,guba)(600030. SH)release["Dimensional stability"and"improved"Give attention to two or morethings stock reform policies]Marketing strategy report says,Since this year,Frequent launch of the financial reform policy,A new round of reform measures is an important part of;The latest economic weakness and capital market decline,May be bullish stock market system reform open the rare time window.Some both short-term effect of stimulation and long-term improvement action policy,In such a window inside,Often be policy authorities as offensive and defensive and painters of the launch.

  “利好陆续出了那么多,是累积效应显现的时候了。市场每次都在极度悲观的环境下,展开强劲反弹。”老王总结道。

"Have good out of so many,Is the cumulative effect appears the.Every time the market in extreme pessimism environment,Expansion strong rebound."Lao wang concluded.

  9点15分,集合竞价,股指期货率先交易,主力合约IF1209高开7个点,随后碎步攀升。“单看早盘情况,我的账户还是亏损的。”老王表示。

9 point 15 points,Call auction,The stock index futures trading,Main contract IF1209 high open seven point,Then rising ground step."Single see early disc situation,My account or losses."Pharaoh said.

  9点30分,现货市场开盘,上证指数跳空高开11个点,这是近期少有的信号,着实让人振奋;和跳空高开遥相呼应的是,早盘成交很活跃,明显放量。

9 PM,Spot market opening,The Shanghai index jump empty high open 11 points,This is the recent rare signal,Really pleasing;And jump high empty is open from afar,Early disc clinch a deal very active,Obvious peatlands.

  建材、环保、工程机械等板块涨幅居前;随后智能建筑、页岩气、新材料、锂电板块个股活跃,大盘一路冲至2050点附近遇阻;不过,已有企稳迹象的权重股,揭竿而起接过领涨大旗。

Building materials/Environmental protection/Engineering machinery and so on plate or the first;Then intelligent building/Shale gas/The new material/Li-ion battery plate stocks active,Grail rushed to pressure near 2050;but,Existing signs of stabilising the weight stock,Rise up and took the collar rise up.

  市场如此放量大涨实属罕见。老王一时有点慌神,“指数涨等于周期股涨,医药、科技等非周期类行业只能隔岸观花。”和另一位投资经理老吴的MSN对话框赫然显示,此刻是10点10分。

The market rose so rare peatlands.Lao wang at that time a little HuangShen,"The index was equal to cycle stock rise,medicine/Technology aperiodic class industry can only watch a flower from shore."And another investment manager LaoWu MSN dialog box impressively display,At the moment is 10 PM.

  毕竟身经百战,他定了定神,此时,大盘反弹超过32点,涨幅1.58%。老王当即判断,“从成交量看,今天注定是超预期的报复性反弹,周期性行业是主力军。”

After all, while,He set a calming,At this time,The market rebound more than 32 points,Or 1.58%.Lao wang immediately judgment,"See from the volume,Today was destined to be super expected retaliatory rebound,Cyclical industry is the main force."

  老王又做了一个决定,加仓券商、水泥,共计两成仓位,事不宜迟。下单、成交。这是老王少有的追高情况,他之前的交易规则是,当日个股涨幅超过7%不追高,但这次破了戒。

Lao wang and made a decision,Gallons brokers/cement,A total of twenty percent positions,Speed is desirable.order/Clinch a deal.This is pharaoh rare chase high situation,He is before trading rules,The stocks rose more than 7% don't chase high,But this time is broken ring.

  10点半左右,“表演”结束,加仓个股均被大单封上涨停板,老王长吁一口气。

About half past ten,"performance"end,Add warehouse stocks are big single sealed the harden board,Lao wang heaved a sigh of relief.

  “周期性行业集体大涨,抢点有杠杆的分级基金。”策略研究员紧急中向老王喊话。言语间,多只分级基金受到大量资金青睐,涨停不在话下。

"Cyclical industry of the collective,Rob some have lever classification fund."Strategy researchers in emergency to Lao wang propaganda.Between words,More than one classification funds have been a large amount of money to favour,Harden no object.

  据记者了解,9月7日前,老王的资产配置如下:五成仓位,重仓行业为医药、黄金等,这些并不隶属于周期性行业。当日开盘大涨,老王只有观战的份儿,如今总算抢到涨停,顺利参战。

According to reporter understanding,Before 7 September,Lao wang asset allocation as follows:Fifty percent positions,Heavy warehouse for pharmaceutical industry/Gold, etc,These don't belong to cyclical industry.The opening of,Lao wang only watch out,Now finally rob to harden,Smooth war.

  11点半收市后,老王组织大家紧急召开投研会议。

After closing p.m.,Lao wang organization everyone held an emergency meeting for research.

  “这次上涨太暴力了,发改委狂批项目,证监会让机构找上涨理由,总结一句话——维稳行情已上演。”有研究员眉飞色舞地指出。

"This rise too violent,Development and reform commission crazy batch of project,Securities regulatory commission for institutions to find reasons for rising,Sum up a word - dimensional steady market already stage."A researcher enraptured to point out.

  此时,老王给研究员抛了一个问题,哪个板块还未被发掘将在下午爆发。他则思索另一个战略性的问题,能否全仓。

At this time,Lao wang give researchers at a problem,Which plate have not been excavated in the afternoon outbreak.He is thinking about another strategic problem,Can all warehouse.

  老王知道的是,7日之前,大盘处于无限接近底部的过程,指数已跌不下去,个股前期深度调整,百余只个股集体跌停者并不罕见,可如今市场有热点,页岩气、3D打印、铁路建设等热点纷呈,市场人气已经起来。受到政策性利好推动,行情将延续。

Lao wang know is,Seven days before the,Grail in infinite close to the bottom of the process,Index has not fall down,Stocks the depth adjustment,More than stocks only collective drop stop is not rare,But now the market is hot,Shale gas/3 d printing/Railway construction with hot,Market popularity has been up.By good policy to promote,Market will continue to.

  老王同样知道,不少同行已经满仓操作。而且融券做空或持有股指期货空单的,亦于近期平仓。他暗自思考,今天估计有一批空头要爆仓,这种走势下万不能做空。

Lao wang also know,A lot of peer has ManCang operation.And securities short or hold stock index futures empty single,In the near future also liquidated.He was thinking,Today an estimated a number of short to to explode bin,This trend can do under all empty.

  午后开盘,老王压抑不住内心的亢奋,这种行情可遇不可求。不过,他仍旧克制满仓的冲动。对于行情,他仍有隐忧,技术性反弹过后,政策刺激能否持续。

Afternoon opening,Lao wang can suppress heart stimulated,This quotation elusive.but,He still ManCang restraint of impulse.For market,He still has concerns,After technical rebound,Policy stimulus can be maintained.

  股指期货方面,前期做多的老王顺利扭亏。7日,主力合约放量上涨逾百点,早盘涨幅一度超6%,历史罕见;午后股指维持高位整理。截至收盘,主力合约IF1209报2341.2点,上涨116.2点,涨幅5.22%,一举收复近半月跌幅。

Stock index futures aspects,Prophase do many Lao wang smoothly eliminate losses.7,Main contract measures up more than points,Early disc or once over 6%,History rare;Afternoon stock index to maintain high finishing.By the closing,Main IF1209 contract to 2341.2 points,Up 116.2 points,Or 5.22%,Every recovered nearly half moon fall.

  老王在和同行的交流中了解到,有一家南方私募,当天的期指收益达20%。

Lao wang in and peer exchanges to know,There is a southern private,The day's period refers to income amounted to 20%.

  下午3点,收盘。沪指涨76点,涨幅达3.7%。老王下午只看未动。紧张盯盘的老王团队,则压抑不住内心的亢奋,向记者讲述这场绝地大反弹。

3 PM,closing.Boomed up 76 points,Increased by 3.7%.Lao wang afternoon just to see not moving.Nervous stare disc of the old team,Depression is not inner stimulated,To reporters about the jedi big rebound.

  老王在想,发改委5日公布批复总投资规模逾7000亿元的25个城轨规划和项目后,6日再次公布批复13个公路建设项目、10个市政类项目和7个港口、航道项目。保守估计,发改委两天内集中公布批复的这些项目,总投资规模超过1万亿元。但是,钱从哪里来?地方财政已吃紧,这些项目开场容易,如何收场。

Lao wang in want to,Development and reform commission announced 5, reply with a total investment of more than 700 billion yuan scale 25 city rail planning and post project,6 published reply again 13 highway construction project/10 municipal kind of project and seven port/Channel project.Conservative estimate,Development and reform commission within two days focus announced the project approval,The total investment more than 1 trillion yuan.but,Where the money came from?Local finance already tight,These projects to the opening,How to end.



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