江怡曼

JiangYiMan

　　[ 周三共融券卖出民生银行(600016,股吧)逾350万股，按周三民生银行收盘价计算，约1900万资金在做空民生银行。不过数据还显示，周三融资买入民生银行的资金量接近1.3亿元 ] [Wednesday eutectic ticket sell minsheng bank(600016,guba)More than 3.5 million shares,According to the people's livelihood bank closing price calculation on Wednesday,About 19 million money doing empty minsheng bank.But the data also show,Wednesday's leveraged buyouts minsheng bank financing volume of nearly 130 million yuan]

　　本周，民生银行（600016.SH）A股股价在H股的影响下，表现如坐过山车般地跌宕起伏：本周前三天，民生银行的跌幅超过8%，而后两天，其股价却一改此前4连阴的颓势，出现强劲反弹，涨幅超过6%。那么是什么原因让民生银行出现如此大相径庭的走势？

This week,Minsheng bank(600016. SH)A shares in under the influence of H shares,Performance such as a roller coaster way ups and downs:Three days of the week,Minsheng bank fell more than 8%,Then two days,Its share price but change after 4 even Yin in games,Appear strong rebound,Rose more than 6%.What reason let minsheng bank appear so widely divergent trend?

　　分析师认为，民生银行股价大幅波动的背后是市场对于民生银行低估与否的强烈分歧。外资选择坚定看空做空，史玉柱则选择逆势增持高调力挺。

Analysts believe,Minsheng bank share price fluctuations is behind the market for minsheng bank underestimate or not strong differences.Foreign choose firm look empty do empty,Shi yuzhu chooses contrarian around a high-profile force.

　　“现在来看，以民生银行为代表的银行股确实已经有点"鸡肋"，下跌空间肯定不会太大，预计短期会企稳，但是由于基本面的原因，从中长期来看，又看不到太大的投资机会。”国金证券(600109,股吧)财富管理中心分析师孙翀在接受第一财经日报《财商》记者采访的时候表示。

"Now let's have a look at,To the people's livelihood bank as a representative of bank shares had a little"'t-hurt-you-but-can 't-help-you",Down space won't too big,Expected short-term will stabilises,But because the basic reason,From the long term,And can't see too much investment opportunities."Countries gold securities(600109,guba)Wealth management center analysts Chong sun in accept the first financial daily[Money business]Reporter the interview said.

　　背后藏玄机 Mystery hidden behind

　　上半年，民生银行维持了良好的业绩表现，实现归属于母公司股东的净利润190.53亿元，同比增长36.89%，位居同业前列。但是，9月份以来，民生银行的股价走势则与中报业绩形成鲜明反差。

In the first half of,Minsheng bank to maintain a good performance,Realize attributable to shareholders of the parent company net profit of 19.053 billion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 36.89%,In the forefront of the industry.but,Since September,Minsheng bank's share price movements, and performance center daily news form bright contrast.

　　9月5日，民生银行不但没有从三连阴中恢复过来，而且下跌更为“惨烈”。当天民生银行拉出了一条长长的阴线，盘中最大跌幅超过5%，收盘股价下跌了3.7%。从9月3日到9月5日，民生银行的累计跌幅已经超过了8%。而民生银行H股的股价更是早已经开始出现连续的下跌。从8月29日开始，民生银行的股价出现了罕见的“六连阴”。虽然同期光大银行(601818,股吧)（601818.SH）、招商银行（600036.SH）的股价也出现了三连阴，但下跌幅度并没有民生银行这么大。

On September 5,,Minsheng bank not only from three even recover Yin,And fell more"horrifying".The minsheng bank pulled out of a long Yin line,Pan maximum fell more than 5%,Closing share price dropped 3.7%.From September 3, to September 5,,The accumulative total of minsheng bank has fallen more than 8%.And the people's livelihood bank H share share price but also have began to appear continuous decline.From August 29, start,Minsheng bank's share price appeared rare"Six even Yin".Although everbright bank of the same period(601818,guba)(601818. SH)/Merchants bank(600036. SH)Share price also appeared three even Yin,But declines and no minsheng bank so big.

　　“从中报来看，银行的利润占到了上市公司利润的一半以上，而这样的情况是不正常的，在利率市场化的推动之下，银行的利润很可能会进一步收窄。此外，受经济下滑的影响，银行的坏账比例也可能会进一步上升。在这样的情况之下，市场普遍不看好银行股。”孙翀表示。

"See from the center daily news,Bank profits accounted for more than half of the listed company profits,And this situation is not normal,In the marketization of interest rate and promoting the under,The bank profit is likely to further narrow.In addition,By the influence of the economic downturn,Bank's bad debt proportion also may further rise.In such circumstances,The market is not valued bank shares."He said Chong.

　　业内人士认为，造成民生银行股价大跌的原因可能包括以下几种：其一是9月3日有500万股民生银行在大宗交易平台上被以9.34%的折价率抛售，其中，买入为中信证券(600030,股吧)上海安亭证券营业部，卖出为中信证券广州番禺广华南路证券营业部。

The personage inside course of study thinks,Cause minsheng bank stocks tumbled reasons may include the following kinds:One is on September 3, 5 million people born bank in bulk trading platform in 9.34% of the discount rate selling,the,Buy for citic securities(600030,guba)Shanghai anting securities sales department,Sell for citic securities guangzhou panyu wide China and China securities sales department.

　　其次是投行发布报告调低其评级以及外资股东的做空。9月5日，摩根大通发布最新报告将民生银行由“买入”下调为“中性”，理由是，目前内地银行业正面临资产质量的普遍恶化，而降息和揽存大战将继续压缩净利息收益率的空间，这一环境对那些资产负债情况具有防守性的银行有利，即拥有多余资本或流动性，而民生银行在这两方面都受到限制。摩根大通认为目前中小企业普遍受到更大的经济下滑压力，这将影响民生银行在小微贷款领域的表现。

The second is report investment Banks downgrade them and foreign shareholders do empty.On September 5,,Jpmorgan chase released a new report by the people's livelihood bank"buy"Cut for"neutral",Reason is,At present the mainland banking industry is facing assets quality common deterioration,And to cut interest rates and LanCun war will continue to compression net interest rate of return of space,This environment for those assets and liabilities are defensive bank advantage,Namely have extra capital or liquidity,And the people's livelihood bank in these two aspects are limited.Jpmorgan chase think in small and medium-sized enterprises at present is generally greater economic downward pressure,This will influence the minsheng bank in small micro loan field performance.

　　此外，花旗的研究报告则将中资银行股降至“减持”。花旗银行认为，中资银行盈利增长减缓，资产质量转差，而融资需求将进一步扩张。

In addition,Citigroup report will Chinese bank shares fell to"To reduce their holdings of".Citibank think,Chinese bank earnings growth slowdown,The asset quality slip,And financing demand will further expansion.

　　外资投行看空民生银行的消息在港交所披露的信息中也得到了佐证，自8月24日公布半年报业绩之后，摩根士丹利持有民生银行H股好仓的比例已由原来的6.72%减持至5.82%，黑石持有该股好仓的比例也由7.29%减持至6.64%。

Foreign investment Banks look empty minsheng bank news in Hong Kong into the information disclosed in also get the evidence,Since August 24 semi-annual report released after the performance,Morgan Stanley hold minsheng bank H share good storehouse has the proportion of from 6.72% to reduce their holdings to 5.82%,Black stone hold the share of good bin the percentage of 7.29% to 6.64% by reducing their holdings of.

　　其三是A股市场投资者融券做空民生银行。统计显示，周三共融券卖出民生银行逾350万股，按周三民生银行收盘价计算，约1900万资金在做空民生银行。不过数据还显示，周三融资买入民生银行的资金量接近1.3亿元。

The third was A share market investors securities short minsheng bank.Statistics show that,Wednesday's common securities sold minsheng bank more than 3.5 million shares,According to the people's livelihood bank closing price calculation on Wednesday,About 19 million money doing empty minsheng bank.But the data also show,Wednesday's leveraged buyouts minsheng bank financing volume of nearly 130 million yuan.

　　史玉柱力挺 Shi yuzhu force is

　　在股价下跌之际，民生银行发布澄清公告称经营一切正常。9月5日下午四点，民生银行召集投资人和分析师进行电话会议沟通，针对股价暴跌和公司经营问题做出回应并接受答问。

On the occasion of stock prices,Minsheng bank issued clarification announcement to say to all the normal operation.On September 5, at four o 'clock in the afternoon,Minsheng bank called investors and analysts conference call communication,According to share prices collapse and company business problem to respond and accept quiz.

　　民生银行称，公司整体上没有异动，公司经营状况与当天的股价表现不是特别符合。公司高管称，银行业在金融行业一枝独秀，即使利率市场化银行业面临转型，但近几年积累了优势，转型不会有太大问题，民生银行五年前就提前准备应对利率市场化。

Minsheng bank said,The company, on the whole, no different dynamic,The company operating status and the day's share price performance is not particularly accord with.Company executives said,The banking industry in the financial industry to outshine others,Even if the interest rate marketization banking in transition,But in recent years has accumulated advantage,Transformation won't have too big problem,Minsheng bank five years ago in advance to prepare for interest rate marketization.

　　对于民生银行的股价异动，外界也是争论纷纷。国泰君安在发布的研究报告中称，民生银行股价异动背后可谓“隐藏玄机”。大胆猜想，可能是某一机构通过“左手倒右手”的大宗交易冲击市场情绪，然后融券做空牟利。

For the people's livelihood bank shares have moved,The outside world is in dispute.Guotai junan in the study, released the report says,Minsheng bank shares is moved behind"Mystery hidden".Bold guess,May be a mechanism through"Left hand down the right hand"The block trade impact market sentiment,Then securities short profit.

　　事实上，史玉柱对民生银行一直都是“情有独钟”，多次大举增持。对于这次民生银行的股价异动，他自然也不能“坐视不管”。

In fact,Shi yuzhu on minsheng bank has always been"Have a special liking",Multiple massive increasing.For the minsheng bank's share price different dynamic,He nature also can't"Sit by".

　　9月5日当天，史玉柱就在微博上发布了三条与民生银行有关的信息，以“声援”民生银行，并表示自己在民生银行的投资账面仍有不少盈利。

On September 5th the,Shi yuzhu is in micro blog released three and the people's livelihood bank related information,to"support"Minsheng bank,And said he in the livelihood of the people of investment for the bank book still has a lot of profit.

　　记者根据港交所披露的信息了解到，今年6月4日和5日，史玉柱分别买入民生银行1120万股与1320万股，至此，史玉柱共持有民生银行3.18亿股H股，持股比例上升至5.73%。去年，史玉柱曾斥资约18.1亿元，共32次增持民生银行H股，且有22次增持发生在民生银行H股跌向历史最低点位之时？

Reporter according to port into the information disclosed to know,June 4 and 5,,Shi yuzhu were buying minsheng bank 11.2 million shares and 13.2 million shares,So far,Shi yuzhu altogether hold minsheng bank 318 million shares H shares,Shareholding ratio rose to 5.73%.Last year,Shi yuzhu had spend about 1.81 billion yuan,A total of 32 times increasing minsheng bank H share,And there are 22 times increasing occurred in minsheng bank H shares fell to an all-time low of a?

　　截至2012年6月底，史玉柱掌舵的上海健特生命科技有限公司持有民生银行8.06亿股的股份，位列第六大股东。

Up to the end of June 2012,Shi yuzhu at the helm of the Shanghai health, life science and technology co., LTD. Hold minsheng bank of 806 million shares,Ranked sixth big shareholders.

　　市场分歧银行估值 Divergence of the market valuation of the bank

　　事实上，对于银行股的股价是否被低估，业内一直存在分歧。“银行股主要还是靠垄断赚到钱，而对于此类赚到利润的方式，市场给予的估值也是见仁见智。”上海市某私募人士表示。

In fact,For bank shares share price is underestimated,The industry there has been a divide."Bank shares still basically rely on monopoly to earn money,For such earn profit way,The market to give a valuation is opinions differ from each other."Shanghai a private person said.

　　从中报来看，尽管民生银行上半年实现了不错的业绩增长，但公司的不良贷款也出现了“双升”，截至报告期末，公司不良贷款余额为89.76亿元，比上年末上升14.37亿元。不良贷款率为0.69%，比上年末上升0.06个百分点。

See from the center daily news,Although minsheng bank to realize the good performance in the first half of growth,But the company's bad loans also appeared"Double rise",The final report,The company non-performing loan balance is 8.976 billion yuan,ShangNianMo than rise 1.437 billion yuan.Bad loans is 0.69%,ShangNianMo than rose 0.06%.

　　国泰君安认为，银行虽面临诸多不利因素，但股价已严重低估。方正证券(601901,股吧)分析师周军认为，民生银行不良率在已经披露了中报的上市银行中位居中游，但拨贷比和拨备覆盖率处于较高水平，总体风险仍然可控。

Guotai junan think,Though the bank faces many unfavorable factors,But share prices have underestimated badly.Founder securities(601901,guba)Analysts ZhouJun think,Minsheng bank fraction defective in has revealed the center daily news listed Banks in the middle,But dial the credit ratio and a provision coverage at a higher level,The overall risk is still controlled.

　　景顺长城投资副总监邓体顺认为，中国几大国有银行股的市值已经进入全球百强，但我们的企业并不匹配这么多庞大的金融机构。因此未来的增长，尤其是市值的增长在流动性偏紧的情况下空间很小。

The Great Wall JingShun investment deputy director DengTiShun think,China a few big state-owned bank shares market value has entered into the global top,But our enterprise is not matched by so many huge financial institutions.Therefore the future growth,Especially the growth of market value in the liquidity partial tight circumstances space is very small.

　　“国内银行股在7月份曾有一波上涨，市场提前炒作了中报业绩超预期的题材，目前这一炒作已告一段落。在行业发展趋势整体不被看好的情况下，银行盈利能力缓步下滑，当前估值已基本反映银行基本面回落。”孙翀说。

"Domestic bank shares in July, there have been a wave of rising,Market speculation in advance the performance center daily news than expected theme,At present, the media has come to an end.In the development of the industry trend overall underachieving cases,Bank profitability decline slowly,The current valuation has basically reflects a bank's fundamentals back."He said Chong.