钱就在那里，买还是不买？股就在那里，卖还是不卖？

The money is there,Buy or not to buy?Shares there,Sell or not to sell?

　　9月7日，这两个问题考验着A股的投资者，更包括职业的机构们。

On September 7,,These two problems test with A share of investors,More include professional agencies are.

　　这一天，A股几乎平湖出高峡般崛起，沪指一度涨4.5%，深成指一度上涨6.4%。收盘，沪指报2127.76点，涨75.84点，涨幅3.70%，成交1111亿元；深成指报8709.07点，涨420.80点，涨幅5.08%，成交1102亿元。69只非ST个股涨停，近150只涨超7%，仅35只下跌。

This day,A shares almost pinghu out like the high rise,Once boomed rose 4.5%,Shenzhen composition index was up 6.4%.closing,Boomed to 2127.76 points,Up 75.84 points,Or 3.70%,Clinch a deal is 111.1 billion yuan;Shenzhen composition index to 8709.07 points,Up 420.80 points,Or 5.08%,Clinch a deal is 110.2 billion yuan.69 not only stocks ST harden,Nearly 150 by only a super 7%,Only 35 only fall.

　　“我问了多家机构的投资经理，包括保险和公募。今天这种行情对机构很尴尬，加仓的担心诱多，减仓的担心踏空。”7日盘后，北京某基金公司研究总监告诉本报记者，足见机构的分歧和不自信。

"I asked several institutions of investment manager,Including insurance and public offering.Today the market to institutions very embarrassed,Add bin worry more lure,Reduce warehouse worry step empty."7 after plate,Beijing some fund company research director told our reporter,It serves to show institution differences and not confident.

　　分机构类型看，公募基金大涨前多选择减仓，而众多知名私募则加仓。

Points mechanism type look,Public offering fund of choice before reducing bin,And many famous private then add to warehouse.

　　基金、保险踏空 fund/Insurance step empty

　　事实上，9月7日前，公募基金正在减仓通道中。

In fact,Before 7 September,Public offering fund is minus bin channel.

　　据海通证券(600837,股吧)基金研究中心测算，8月24日至9月6日，股混型基金股票仓位简单平均由上期的75.96%，缩减至本期的74.33%。此前两周，即8月10日至8月23日，同类基金仓位的简单平均由77.30%缩减至75.96%。公募基金仓位连续4周下探。

According to haitong securities(600837,guba)Fund research center estimates,On August 24, to September 6,,Strands of mixed type fund stock positions by the previous simple average of 75.96%,Reduced to 74.33% of this issue.After two weeks,Namely on August 10, to aug. 23,Similar fund positions by the simple average 77.30% reduction to 75.96%.Public offering fund positions without for four weeks.

　　今年以来，基金仓位并未呈现太多趋势变化，股混型基金围绕78%的高仓位浮动。9月7日之前连续4周的下探表明，基金开始多杀多的游戏。

Since this year,Fund positions did not show too much change trend,Strands of mixed type fund around 78% of high position floating.On September 7, four consecutive weeks before the test shows that,Fund began to DuoShaDuo game.

　　本报记者从多家基金公司了解的情况也证实了这点。

Our reporter from several fund company understand situation also confirmed this.

　　“三季度探底已不可能，四季度也难说，经济不回稳，股市难企稳。”据上海一家合资基金公司的基金经理透露，8月份，他主动减仓了。

"Third quarter exploratory bottom already impossible,The fourth quarter and it's hard to say,Economy is not recovered,Stock market stabilises difficult."According to the Shanghai a joint venture company of fund of fund managers said,In August,He offered to reduce storehouse.

　　深圳一家基金公司的基金经理称：“上市公司中报8月陆续出台，我们对不符合预期的个股进行了调整。”

Shenzhen a company of fund of fund managers said:"The listed company on August center daily news comes on stage in succession,We do not conform to the expected stocks have been adjusted."

　　基金减仓也受到卖方报告的影响。如申银万国首席策略分析师凌鹏认为，破2000点是大概率事件；兴业证券(601377,股吧)张忆东指出，9月指数不易大幅反弹，呈现“磨”的概率较大。安信证券、中信建投对后市也不乐观。

Fund minus bin is also affected by the influence of the seller's report.If ShenYin all nations chief strategy analyst LingPeng think,Break 2000 points is a big probability event;Xingye securities(601377,guba)ZhangYiDong pointed out that,September index not easy rebound sharply,present"grinding"Probability of large.Anxi securities/Citic built cast for the market outlook is not optimistic.

　　值此时点，沪指却创下年内第二大单日涨幅，着实让基金措手不及。

On this point,But boomed in a year's second largest one-day increase,Really made fund unprepared.

　　摆在踏空基金面前的是艰难选择：对市场的判断，否定还是继续坚持？从本报调查的结果看，基金采用变通做法——坚持的同时也有灵活。

In step empty before fund is the difficult choice:The judgment of the market,Negative or continue to adhere to?From the results of the survey to see,Fund use flexible approach, adhere to the can also have a flexible.

　　“我们加了一点。”北京某中大型基金公司投资总监表示，“但不多。”据透露，他加仓的是一直看好的新兴产业个股，并非当日涨幅较大的周期股。

"We added a little."Beijing some large and medium fund company investment director said,"But in a few."According to reveal,He added bin is always promising emerging industry stocks,Not that day or large cycle stock.

　　深圳一家规模排名前20的基金公司投资总监称：“仓位没有太多变化，但调了些结构。前期市场低迷，成交不活跃，很难按照想法调结构。”并没有向周期性行业调整，而是转向防御型行业。

Shenzhen a scale ranked in the top 20 fund company investment director says:"Location without too much change,But adjustable some structure.Prophase market downturn,Clinch a deal not active,It is difficult to according to the idea adjustable structure."And not to the cyclical industry adjustment,But steering defender industry.

　　对9月7日的大涨，多数基金公司公开表态较为谨慎。

On September 7, small savers,Most of the fund company public comment more cautious.

　　大成基金称，市场只是超预期反弹，尚不能判断行情规模和持续时间。

Dacheng fund said,Market is expected to rebound super,Is not judgment market size and duration.

　　天治基金表示，本质上是维稳政策刺激下的超跌反弹，持续性有待观察是否有进一步配套政策。

Day to fund said,Is essentially a dimensional stability policy stimulus of ultra fall rebound,Persistent remains to be seen whether there is further supporting policies.

　　交银施罗德认为，由于经济基本面仍难以得到实质改善，股市大概率仍将以低位震荡为主。

Pay silver schroeder think,Because of the economic fundamentals are still hard to get the substantial improvement,The stock market big probability will still to shakeouts give priority to.

　　华安基金也认为，这是大底构筑过程中的“探底——确认”形态，而不是一般意义上的波动过程。

HuaAn fund also think,This is in the process of constructing bottoms"Exploratory bottom - confirmation"form,Rather than general sense of fluctuation process.

　　诸如国投瑞银、汇丰晋信等少数基金，则对后市反弹给予更高预期。

Such as international trust &investment ubs/HSBC jin letter etc. A few fund,For the market outlook is expected to rebound for a higher.

　　事实上，保险等机构对反弹也没准备。

In fact,Institutions such as insurance to rebound also didn't prepare.

　　“我们没有发现保险在前期加仓。”上海某基金公司市场部人士透露，“8月初保险减仓后，就没有明显入场痕迹。”该公司一只被动型基金经常被两大保险公司——平安和国寿视为权益类投资工具。

"We haven't found the insurance in the prophase and warehouse."Shanghai some fund company marketing sources,"Early August after insurance decrease a storehouse,There is no obvious trace of admission."The company a passivity fund is often two big insurance company, peace HeGuoShou as rights and interests kind investment tools.

　　9月7日，险资的行为犹如基金般谨慎，不敢贸然加仓。前述上海某基金公司市场部人士称，这天没见到险资大单申购。

On September 7,,Risk information behavior is like a fund, cautious,Can't jump to a gallon.The Shanghai some fund company marketing person said,This day didn't see risk endowment big single purchase.

　　保险资金常利用ETF做权益类资产配置。7日，ETF成交骤然放大，最活跃的华泰沪深300ETF成交录得13亿元，较6日增长240%。但据透露，该基金净申购1亿元左右。机构和散户持仓比例没有太大变化。

Insurance funds often use ETF do rights and interests kind asset allocation.7,Clinch a deal ETF sudden amplification,The most active huatai Shanghai and shenzhen 300 etf clinch a deal was recorded 1.3 billion yuan,A 6, 240% growth.But according to reveal,The fund net purchase 100 million yuan or so.Institutional and retail position scale does not have too big change.

　

　私募逆势加仓 Private contrarian and warehouse

　　相反，私募抓住这次反弹。

instead,Private seize this rebound.

　　据私募排排网统计，私募7月平均仓位47.89%，8月跌跌不休的情况下，私募逆市加仓，实际平均仓位52.73%。其中，仓位在30%以下的私募占比13.64%，27.27%私募的仓位介于30%-50%，45.45%的私募仓位处于50%-80%，下跌中，仍有13.64%的仓位高于80%。

According to private row by row network statistics,Private July average 47.89% at location,August stumbling endlessly of cases,Private inverse city and warehouse,With an actual average of 52.73% at location.the,Positions below 30% of the private accounts for more than 13.64%,27.27% of the private equity positions between 30% - 50%,45.45% of the private location in 50% - 80%,decline,There are still 13.64% of the position is higher than 80%.

　　私募巨头在这次加仓过程中起了带头作用。

Private giant in the process of positions played the leading role.

　　上海泽熙投资透露，8月底9月初，判断可能迎来技术性反弹，于是将仓位加到较高位置，考虑到流动性因素，只买大盘周期股。

Shanghai ze hee investment revealed,In early September the end of August,Judge may have technical rebound,So will position and to a higher position,Considering the factor of liquidity,Only buy stock market cycle.

　　泽熙产品的净值也暴露了加仓行径。7月至8月24日，泽熙二期净值稳定在1.65元左右（未扣除相关费用），说明仓位很轻。但8月31日，净值跌到1.62元，9月7日，净值升至1.69元。年内回报率也从8月31日的3.97%升至9月7日的9.12%。

Ze hee product net value also exposed the ways of positions.July to August 24,Ze hee phase ii net value stability in 1.65 yuan(Not deducting costs associated with),That position is very light.But on August 31,,The net worth fell to 1.62 yuan,On September 7,,Net worth rose to 1.69 yuan.Years the return rate is also from August 31, 3.97% to 9.12% on September 7,.

　　“9月7日你们做什么？”记者询问。“仓位已调到位，没做什么。”泽熙投资人士回应。

"On September 7, what are you doing?"Reporters asked about the."Location modulated in place,Don't do what."Ze hee investment people respond to.

　　深圳私募大佬明曜投资董事长、投资总监曾昭雄也透露，2100点下，他大幅加仓。“每只产品的风格不同，加仓也会不同，但都尽可能加。”

Shenzhen two private MingYao investment chairman of the board of directors/Investment director CengZhaoXiong also revealed,Under 2100 points,He greatly add bin."One of the products of different style,Add bin also will be different,But add as much as possible."

　　曾昭雄说：“我们计划2100点一线各投资组合在控制好下行风险的同时，除保留必需的现金外，尽量买入精选股票。那一刻，我的交易员正紧张执行买入指令。那是个艰难决定，未来的一段时间，我们将面临极大的心理考验。”

CengZhaoXiong said:"We plan to 2100 points a line each portfolio in the control good downside risks at the same time,In addition to keep the necessary cash,Try to buy stock selection.At that moment,My traders are nervous executive buy instruction.It was a difficult decision,The future of a period of time,We will face great psychological test."

　　给曾昭雄加仓勇气的是对风险的评估。“虽然我不认为大盘可守住2000点，但判断市场最多也就跌10%，即上证指数跌到1800点。如果选股好，最低只有5%的跌幅，机会面前，风险已很小。”

To CengZhaoXiong gallons of courage is to risk assessment."Although I don't think the market can hold 2000 points,But most market judgment also fell 10%,That is the Shanghai index fell to 1800 points.If choose a good,Minimum only 5% of the decline,The opportunity before them,Risk has been very small."

　　据私募排排网调查显示，私募中，45.45%看涨9月，比上月增加13.87%，31.82%认为会横盘整理，22.73%则认为会继续下跌，较上月增加6.94%。

According to private row by row network survey,In private,Rising 45.45% on September,Increased by 13.87% than last month,31.82% thought that will be sideways sorting,22.73% thought would continue to fall,A 6.94% increase last month.

　　私募排排网指出，从调查结果可知，看涨看跌的私募皆有增加，持横盘整理观点的则大减20.81%，可见，私募基金对未来行情的分歧加大，总体而言，私募基金对未来行情趋于乐观，看涨情绪进一步提高。

Private row by row and points out,From the survey result,Bullish bearish private is increased,The horizontal plate finishing point of view are big minus 20.81%,visible,Private equity funds for future market differences increase,In general,Private equity funds for future market tend to be optimistic,Bullish sentiment further improve.

　　无论是加仓还是减仓、无论是看多还是看空，在判断上形成共识——慎言牛市。

Whether gallons or subtract a warehouse/Whether see more or the look empty,In judging the consensus on - stool pigeon bull market.

　　曾昭雄认为，虽然市场会有反弹，但市场可能还会反复。

CengZhaoXiong think,Although the market will rebound,But the market may be repeated.

　　泽熙投资人士则称，市场可能还有筑底过程。

Ze hee investment person has said,Markets may have built bottom process.

　　“9月10日，即下周一，一系列经济数据都会出炉，相比并不好看。如果有超出预期的恶化，那对反弹将构成阻力。”北京某基金投资总监表示。

"On September 10,,Namely next Monday,A series of economic data will be released,Than did not look.If there are worse than expected,The rebound will constitute the resistance."Beijing some fund investment director said.

　　推动反弹还有个因素，就是坊间传言周末有降息、降准的政策出台。

Promote the rebound has a factor,Is that lower interest rates on the weekend/Drop quasi policies.

　　如果周末不出这些政策，那么反弹的利多因素将削减。诚如天治基金所言：“由于目前央行仍对货币控制较紧，如没有货币政策配合，……反弹本质上是维稳政策刺激下的超跌反弹行情。”

If the weekend out these policies,So the bounce of the lido factors will cut.As day to fund said:"Because the present central bank still on monetary control is tight,If no monetary policy fit,...Rebound is essentially a dimensional stability policy stimulus of ultra fall rallies."

　　9月10日-16日，公开市场将有100亿元央票到期，150亿元正回购到期，共计到期资金250亿元，较本周到期资金1580亿元减少1330亿元。此外，下周还有1650亿元逆回购到期。

September 10, - 16,,Open market will have 10 billion yuan tickets expire central,15 billion yuan are buyback maturity,Total due capital of 25 billion yuan,More is due this week fund 158 billion yuan a decrease of 133 billion yuan.In addition,Next week and 165 billion yuan reverse repurchase maturity.

　　据此，即便不进行任何操作，下周公开市场的资金面，将由自然到期释放250亿元，转为回笼1400亿元。改变最近几周一直释放流动性的情形。

According to,Even if no operation,Next week the open market financing area,By nature will expire release 25 billion yuan,Withdrawal of to 140 billion yuan.Change in recent weeks has been released liquidity situation.

　　但是，如果上述阻力被一一攻破，那么反弹持续时间将会拉长。

but,If the above resistance against by one by one,So rebound duration will be stretched.