田享华

Field at China

　　四年前的四万亿投资刺激计划，让中国成功“保八”，但也留下了一些后遗症，如今中国政府正积极推动转变经济发展方式，力图更高效推动经济社会公平、开放和可持续的发展。

Four years ago four trillion investment stimulus plan,Let China's successful"The eight",But also left some sequelae,Now the Chinese government is actively promote the transformation of the mode of economic development,More efficient to promote economic and social justice/Open and sustainable development.

　　而这也正是这几天中青年改革开放论坛（莫干山会议）讨论的焦点。昨天，全国人大常委会原副委员长、经济学家成思危在会上就对系列热点问题做出回应，并且提出中国要化解原来经济发展的一些负面效应，就得做出三个重要的转向，即：外需引导转为内需引导、外延增长转为内涵增长、外力驱动转为内力驱动。

And this is precisely these days young and middle-aged reform and opening BBS(Moganshan meeting)The focus of discussion.yesterday,Former vice chairman of the NPC standing committee/Economists at the meeting Mr Cheng to series hot issue to respond,And put forward for China to resolve the economic development of original some negative effect,Have to make three important steering,namely:Overseas market demand guide to domestic demand guide/Epitaxial growth to connotation growth/External forces drive to internal force driving.

　　对于四万亿的刺激计划，成思危测算后发现，如果没有2008年的经济刺激计划，2009年经济的增长将只有2.4%，而实际上增长了9.2%。但任何事物都有两面性，过度经济刺激政策负面效应也很明显。

For four trillion stimulus plan,Mr Cheng the discovery after measuring,If there is no 2008 years of economic stimulus plan,2009 years of economic growth will be only 2.4%,But in fact increased by 9.2%.But everything has two sides,Excessive economic stimulus policy negative effect is obvious.

　　成思危列举过度经济刺激政策带来的负面影响包括：过量投资引发产能过剩；由于外需减少，加上产能过剩导致库存积压；投资效益下降，2009年投资增长系数只有0.3%；环境成本大量增加。

Mr Cheng lists excessive economic stimulus policy has brought more negative effects include:Excessive investment cause excess capacity;Now due to reduce,Add excess capacity lead to inventory backlog;Investment profits down,In 2009 only 0.3% investment growth factor;A large increase of environment cost.

　　此外，大量货币投放的结果之一是造成了通货膨胀，之二是地方债务迅速增加，之三是资产泡沫上升。

In addition,A lot of money issued one result is that caused the inflation,The second is the place debt increase quickly,The third is rising asset bubble.

　　在这种情况下，要实现经济增长就要转变经济发展方式，成思危提出了三个“外转内”的方案。

In this case,To realize the economic growth is transformation of the mode of economic development,Mr Cheng puts forward three"Outward turning inside"scheme.

　　让工资和CPI挂钩 Let the wages and CPI hook

　　关于向内需的转向，成思危认为，这件事很不容易做的，因为真正转向依靠居民消费，首先要提高人民群众的购买力，让大家有能力消费，而这个过程中需要做一些制度性的安排。第一个安排就是要让人民群众的收入普遍增长；第二是要让工资和CPI挂钩，现在30个省市最低工资已经和CPI挂钩了，但是整个工资还没有。随着劳动生产力提高，劳动者收入也要提高。

To domestic demand about the steering,Mr Cheng think,It is not easy to do,Because real to rely on consumer spending,First of all to improve people's purchasing power,Let everybody have the ability to consumption,And the process need to do some institutional arrangements.The first arrangement is to make people's income growth generally;The second is to let wages and CPI hook,Now 30 provinces, cities and the minimum wage has and the CPI hook,But the salary is not.With the labor productivity,Laborer income will increase.

　　成思危还认为，推进信用消费也很重要，多数银行贷款是贷给政府、企业，贷给个人部分只有15%，还主要是房贷，国外银行贷款百分之六七十是贷给个人。信用消费实际上是把未来的收入拿到今天来用，这个在提高居民购买力方面有一定的作用。

Mr Cheng also think,Promote consumer credit is also very important,Most bank loans are loans to government/enterprise,Loans to individual part only 15%,Is mainly mortgage,Foreign bank loans 60 is of loans to individuals.Consumer credit is actually the future income to get today,The purchasing power of residents in improving have certain effect.

　　目前的社会保障体系是建立在社会统筹和个人账户相结合的基础上，总体来说覆盖面比较广，但是水平比较低，同时还面临着将来代际平衡问题，现在社会保障是靠年轻、在工作的人消费，将来如果这一批人到了退休年龄的时候，他们能否享受同样的待遇？

The present social security system is based on the society plans as a whole and individual account on the basis of the combination of,Overall coverage is wider,But level is low,At the same time is also facing the future generation balance issue,Now the social security is to rely on the young/People working in consumption,In the future if this a batch of people approaching retirement age,They can enjoy the same treatment?

　　对于最近社会正在热议的社保缺口问题，作为全国社会保障基金理事会理事的成思危也有所回应，他说：这个缺口究竟有多大，大家也有不同的计算，有的说是十八万亿，这个是累积数，动态地算没有这么多。

For the recent hot debate society is the social security gap problem,As the national social security fund board of directors is Mr Cheng also respond,He said:How big is the gap,We also have different calculation,Some say one hundred and eight trillion,This is a cumulative number,Dynamically calculate not so much.

　　国家在十年前就成立了社会保障基金，现在积累到一万亿了。成思危说，这个规模还是不够的，社保基金也不是放着不动，要去投资增值，形成一个良性的循环：一方面是要保障每年有一定的增长率；另一方面，至少要有五万亿的基数做保障，当然这还需要进一步努力。

Countries in ten years ago set up social security funds,Now run up to one trillion.Mr Cheng said,This scale is not enough,Social security fund is not lay motionless,Want to go to the investment value,Form a benign circulation:On the one hand is to guarantee every year a certain growth rate;On the other hand,Should have at least five trillion base do security,Of course this also need to further efforts.

　　提高劳动生产率 Improve labor productivity

　　转变经济发展方式的第二条就是由外延性增长转向内延性增长，成思危解释说，外延性的增长就是做加法，要增加生产能力就建一个新厂，也能拉动GDP，但是它不能够提高每个人所能创造的社会财富。而内延性增长是从提高效率、降低成本等方面来提高每个人所能够创造的财富，这也是最重要的。

Transformation of the mode of economic development second is the extensionality growth turning inward ductility growth,Mr Cheng explained,Epitaxy growth is add,To increase the production capacity is built a new plant,Can also pull GDP,But it can't improve every man can create social wealth.In ductile growth from improve efficiency/Cost etc to improve everyone can create wealth,This is the most important.

　　欧洲各国制造业的劳动生产率，希腊和葡萄牙是最低的，德国是最高的，相差好几倍，劳动生产率低使得创造的财富不足以支撑高福利的社会，最终导致危机。而中国的情况如何，成思危经过计算发现，中国制造业的从业人员大约是两亿人，2011年工业增加值是18万亿，也就是一个人创造九万元增加值，这个增加值还要分三部分，政府通过税收拿一部分，企业留一部分，然后再给个人。成思危说，如果中国不提高劳动生产率的话，永远只能在低水平、低社保下发展，因为没有更多的财富来源，所以必须要下更大的力量去提高劳动生产率。

European countries manufacturing labor productivity,Greek and Portugal is the lowest,Germany is the highest,Difference of several times,Low labor productivity that wealth is not enough to support gao fuli society,Eventually lead to crisis.And the situation in China,Mr Cheng after calculation found,China's manufacturing employees is about two hundred million people,In 2011, industrial added value is 18 trillion,Is also a person to create added value of ninety thousand yuan,This added value and three parts,The government through the tax take part,Enterprise keep part of the,And then to individuals.Mr Cheng said,If China does not improve labor productivity words,Forever only in low level/Under low social security development,Because there is no more wealth source,So must be much more power to improve labor productivity.

　　“如果能够把生产率提高，把这块饼做更大，这样更有利于实现共同富裕，更有利于实现共同分配。”成思危说，除了提高劳动生产率以外，还要提高资金的使用效率，现在资金周转效率低了，资金只有通过周转才能够产生更多的利润，现在中国的资金周转效率和国际相比差别太大。

"If is able to improve productivity,Take this piece of cake do more,It is more advantageous to realize common prosperity,More conducive to achieve common distribution."Mr Cheng said,In addition to improve labor productivity outside,To improve efficiency in the use of funds,Now capital turnover efficiency low,It is only through the capital turnover can generate more profit,Now China's capital turnover and efficiency compared the difference is too big.

　　改革的动力来自人民 The impetus for reform comes from the people

　　成思危提出的第三个转变就是从外生性动力转向内生性动力。外生性动力就是依靠政府的优惠政策，依靠政府补贴等外部因素，而内生性动力是依靠职工，依靠人民群众的积极性和创造性。

Mr Cheng proposed third transformation is from the exogenous power steering endogenous power.Exogenous power is to depend on the government's preferential policies,Relying on government subsidy and external factors,And endogenous power depend on worker,Rely on the people's initiative and creativity.

　　成思危表示，改革开放的动力最终还是来于人民，人民有积极性才能够不断努力工作，不断地创造更高价值。对于内生性动力的提升，就是依靠创新，政府要鼓励各方面的人去创新，不仅是技术的创新，还有管理的创新、制度的创新。再从长远一点来说，就是依靠教育，要想提高职工的素质，从更长远来说要提高人民群众思想、文化、道德水平，培养创新型人才，提高整个国民素质。

Mr Cheng said,The reform and open policy the power eventually come to our people,People have enthusiasm can keep on working hard,Constantly creating higher value.For the ascension of endogenous power,Rely on innovation,The government should encourage all aspects of people go to innovation,Is not only a technological innovation,And management innovation/System innovation.From a long-term point again,Rely on education,If you want to improve the quality of workers,From the more in the long run to improve people's thought/culture/Moral level,The cultivation of the innovative talents,To improve the national quality.

　　最后，成思危认为，如果这三个外转内都做到了，中国经济发展方式转变就能够实现。“再深入一步探讨，当前改革已经进入了一个新的阶段，十八大以后，我相信改革会有新的举措和推进。”

finally,Mr Cheng think,If the three outward turning inside are done,China's economic development mode change will be able to realize."To explore further step,The current reform has entered a new stage,After eighteen big,I believe that the reform will have new measures and propulsion."