中日韩自由贸易区如果能逐步建立，将形成亚洲区域的循环，而现在正面临较大的不确定性。

The China, Japan and South Korea free trade area if we can gradually establish,Will form the cycle of the Asian region,And now are facing greater uncertainty.

　　本报记者 张涵 北京报道

Our reporter Denton reports from Beijing

　　酝酿10年之久的中日韩自由贸易区（FTA）刚刚出现转机，这个可能惠及15亿人的亚洲贸易金融合作计划，可能因近期钓鱼岛争端的影响而横生变数。

Brewing 10 years in Japan and South Korea free trade area(FTA)Just turn,This may benefit 1.5 billion Asian trade finance cooperation plan,May be because of the influence of recent diaoyu islandtaiwan and with humour variable.

　　“近期的中日钓鱼岛争端将会给中日韩自由贸易区谈判造成不利影响，阻碍中日韩贸易投资的自由化、便利化进程。”国家发改委对外经济研究所专家张建平9月18日向本报表示。

"Recent sino-japanese diaoyu islandtaiwan will give the China, Japan and South Korea free trade negotiations to cause adverse effect,In Japan and South Korea in the liberalization of trade and investment/Facilitation process."The national development and reform commission of foreign economic research institute experts on September 18, wang zy to our newspaper said.

　　“中国与韩国之间的自贸区谈判会如期按计划进行，”张建平表示，“这种局面将使日本在东北亚和东亚区域合作中的作用被显著削弱，日本在区域内的影响力也将大打折扣，这是日本在区域经济合作方面自己主动丢分。”

"China and South Korea free trade negotiations between the duly go according to plan,"Wang zy said,"This situation will make Japan in northeast Asia and east Asia regional cooperation is the role of significantly weaken,Japan in the influence of the area will also sell at a discount greatly,This is Japan in regional economic cooperation oneself active lose points."

　　8月30日，中国商务部部长陈德铭曾透露，中、日、韩三国已经就11月启动FTA谈判事宜达成一致。之后，9月11日，日本“购岛”事件发生，中日争端不断升级。

On August 30,,China's ministry of commerce minister Chen deming was revealed,in/day/Korea has already November start FTA negotiations have agreed terms.after,On September 11,,Japan"Purchase island"events,Sino-japanese dispute continuously upgrade.

　　张建平表示，三国领导人已经同意年内进行自由贸易区谈判，理应按照程序进行。“目前的紧张局势给谈判带来负面影响是可以肯定的，虽然无法确定影响的程度，但增加了谈判的不确定性。”

Wang zy said,Three kingdoms leaders have agreed to years free trade negotiations,Should be in accordance with the procedures."The current tension to negotiations brings negative effect is certain,Although unable to determine the extent of the impact,But increase the uncertainty of the negotiations."

　　FTA变数 FTA variable

　　谁得益？谁受损？ Who benefit?Who damaged?

　　今年5月13日，在北京举行的第五次中日韩领导人会议上，三国领导人一致同意年内启动自贸区谈判。同日，三国还正式签署投资协定。中国总理温家宝建议，三国要密切协调，确保年内正式启动三国自贸协定谈判。在谈判中既要坚持开放、公平和透明原则，也要照顾彼此关切，最大程度实现互利共赢，为东亚经济一体化注入强劲动力。

In may this year 13,,Held in Beijing in the fifth time that Japan and South Korea leaders meeting,The leaders agreed to years start free trade negotiation.On the same day,Three kingdoms also signed investment agreements.Chinese premier wen jiabao Suggestions,Three kingdoms to close coordination,Ensure years formally initiated triple the fta negotiations.In the negotiations should adhere to the open/Fair and transparent principles,Also want to take care of each other concerns,To achieve mutual benefit and win-win results to the greatest extent,For east Asian economic integration into the strong power.

　　另外，建立自由贸易区，可以促使中日韩进一步加强宏观经济合作，在金融体制改革、国际金融政策协调、共同防范金融风险以及抵御国际金融危机等方面用一个声音说话，共商妥善方案，以保证中日韩经济金融安全，进而维护东北亚的和平稳定。

In addition,The establishment of a free trade area,Can make the China, Japan and South Korea to further strengthen macro economic cooperation,In the reform of the financial system/International financial policy coordination/Common preventing financial risks and against the international financial crisis, etc speak with one voice,Discuss the appropriate scheme,To ensure that the China, Japan and South Korea economic and financial security,And maintain peace and stability in northeast Asia.

　　具体的中日韩贸易次区域计划图也已经成行。2011年国务院通过的《山东半岛蓝色经济区规划》提出，深化海洋经济技术国际合作，建设中日韩区域经济合作试验区，打造东北亚国际航运综合枢纽、国际物流中心、国家重要的大宗原材料交易及价格形成中心，构筑中国参与经济全球化的重要平台。

Specific the China, Japan and South Korea trade sub-regional plan has also lines.In 2011, the state council through[Shandong peninsula blue economic zone planning]Put forward,Deepening the Marine economic and technological international cooperation,Japan and South Korea in the construction of regional economic cooperation test site,Make northeast Asia international shipping comprehensive hub/International logistics center/The country's important bulk raw materials trade and price forming centre,To construct China's participating in the economic globalization of the important platform.

　　这在高层的讲话中也得印证。今年5月13日，国务院总理温家宝在第四届中日韩工商峰会上致辞称，中方倡议利用中国山东毗邻日韩的区位优势，建设中日韩地方经济合作示范区，并积极考虑在日韩选择合作的区域，建立三国产业合作基地。

This in high-rise speech also have to confirm.In may this year 13,,The state council premier wen jiabao and commerce in the fourth china-japan-korea joint summit speeches said,The Chinese initiative use of east China's shandong province adjacent to the location advantage of Japan and South Korea,Japan and South Korea in the construction of local economic cooperation demonstration area,And actively considering in Japan and South Korea choose cooperation of the regional,Establish three kingdoms industry cooperation base.

　　张建平表示，对于中日韩之间的次区域合作，本来三国领导人已经形成默契，接下来需要三国相关部门具体谈判落实。日本“购岛”事件发生后，这一进程也不可避免受到影响。

Wang zy said,For Japan and South Korea in the sub-regional cooperation between,Originally the leaders had formed the tacit understanding,Next, it is necessary to carry out the relevant departments negotiations.Japan"Purchase island"After the incident,This process may inevitably affected.

　　昆仑财经分析员杨涛向本报表示， “日本对中国依存度达到40%。自由贸易区建立后，人民币的小范围国际化进程就加快了。 ”

Kunlun financial analyst Yang tao to our newspaper said, "Ratio of dependence on Japan to China reached 40%.After the establishment of the free trade area,RMB internationalization of the small scope has accelerated. "

　　他认为，自由贸易区的建立将形成亚洲区域的自我小循环。可以脱离美元的控制。这是美国非常不愿意看到的。美元的霸权地位暂时还不会被完全打破。“为了维系这个状态，（美国）自然要粉碎掉小的自由贸易区。”

He thinks,The establishment of a free trade zone will form the Asian regional self pulmonary circulation.Can from dollar control.This is the United States is not willing to see.Dollar hegemony status temporarily can't be completely broken."In order to maintain this state,(The United States)Natural to crush out small free trade area."

　　“钓鱼岛事件得到好处的是美国，日本和中国长期紧张下去，对日元和人民币的信用都将受到极大影响，美元又将被追捧。美元指数会受到风险情绪的推升。”杨涛表示。

"Diaoyu islands event benefit is the United States,Japan and China's long-term insecurity to go down,Against the yen and RMB credit will be affected considerably,Dollars and will be adored.The dollar index will be affected by the risk of mood well."Yang tao said.

　　美国对亚洲的自贸区运动一直非常警惕，总怀疑它会被排斥，所以它一直利用与日韩和其他亚洲国家的“军事互助”关系来施加影响，美国同新加坡、韩国以及澳洲的自贸区运动都显示了它的“多触点瓦解”战略，它不希望中日韩自贸区成为一个真正整合亚洲贸易流的平台。

The Asian free trade movement has been very alert,Always doubt it will be exclusive,So it has been using and Japan and South Korea and other Asian countries"Military mutual"Relationship to influence,The United States and Singapore/South Korea and Australia of free trade movement shows it"Multiconductor collapse"strategy,It does not hope the China, Japan and South Korea free trade become a real integration of Asian trade flow platform.

　　长期关注中日投资并购的Chinalyst 投资顾问公司CEO孙田夫向本报表示，中日韩自贸区谈判可能会因钓鱼岛事件而被拖延，但应该会继续进行合作，“这对双方都有利，而且也并不损害美国的根本利益，推进是早晚的事”。

Long-term focus on the investment of the merger and acquisition Chinalyst investment consulting company CEO SunTian husband to our newspaper said,The China, Japan and South Korea free trade negotiation may be due to diaoyu islands event and be delayed,But should continue to cooperate,"This is good for both sides,But it doesn't damage the fundamental interests of the United States,Propulsion is sooner or later things".

　　谈判的时机与条件 The timing of the talks with conditions

　　事实上，在“购岛”争端发生前，今年出现显著进展的不只是中日韩自由贸易区谈判。中日的金融往来年内也不断升温，从人民币与日元的货币互换、到互相购买国债、QFII批准额度及数量增加以及人民币与日元的直接交易。

In fact,in"Purchase island"Dispute occurred,This significant progress not only in Japan and South Korea free trade negotiations.The financial transactions years also increase,From the renminbi and the Japanese yen currency swap/Each other to buy national debt/QFII approved quota and quantity increase and the renminbi and the Japanese yen direct trading.

　　张建平表示，此次日方缺乏大局意识和战略眼光的错误行动，导致目前中日经贸关系已经受到严重影响。日本将为“购岛”闹剧付出沉重的经济代价。仅仅出于中国市场产生的自发反应和抵制行动，已使日本从产品到服务，从贸易到投资，从制造业到旅游航空，全面受到中国市场的抵制和打击。金融作为为经贸投资服务的行业也必将受到影响。“现在不要说两国央行和金融监管机构进行交流，目前连中日民间的很多交流活动也已经停

Wang zy said,The Japanese lack of sense of the overall situation and the strategic judgment error action,Leading to the present china-japan economic and trade relations have been affected.Japan will be"Purchase island"Farce pay a heavy economic cost.Just out of the Chinese market produce spontaneous reaction and boycott,Japan has made from products to service,From trade to investment,From a manufacturing economy to a tourism aviation,Comprehensive Chinese market by the boycott and strike.Financial as for economic and trade investment service industry will also affected."Now don't say the two countries the central bank and financial regulators to communicate,Even many of the current sino-japanese non-governmental exchange activities have also stopped

　　止。”张建平说。

check."Wang zy said.

　　“机构和政府此前组织的会谈纷纷延后或取消，与企业沟通也受到很多阻力，我们在华业务近乎停滞。”9月18日，东京证券交易所北京代表处一位人士向本报表示。

"Institutions and government organization after the talks have postponed or cancelled,And the enterprise communication is also affected by a lot of resistance,Our business in China almost stagnant."On September 18,,Tokyo stock exchange Beijing representative office is a personage to our newspaper said.

　　这位负责人透露，近两周明显感觉工作沟通中出现阻力，“东京证券交易所本周内专门与北京办公室沟通，要求“谨慎行事”。

The person in charge said,Nearly two weeks definitely feel communication work appeared in the resistance,"Tokyo stock exchange special this week with Beijing office communication,requirements"Proceed with caution".

　　据本报了解，包括野村证券在内的一些在华日本金融机构均放假来应对近期中日冲突的敏感时段。

According to our understanding,Including nomura securities, some Japanese financial institutions in China are off to deal with the recent conflict between the sensitive period of time.

　　“这两天日本投资圈的朋友都在说对中国投资应该停下来了。”第一位在日本创立上市公司的Softbrain公司创始人宋文洲向本报表示，日本投资人最担心的是可能出现的金融制裁，包括对日本投资的资金进行特别性的制裁、通过日本银行做贸易融资受到影响、获得利润不能输送回本国等。

"This two days Japanese investment circle of friends are said to China investment should be stopped."The first listed company in Japan founded the Softbrain company founder SongWenZhou to our newspaper said,Japanese investors worry most about possible financial sanctions,Including Japan to invest money for special sex sanctions/Through the bank of Japan to do trade financing affected/Make a profit can't conveying returned to their own land, etc.

　　事实上，关于制裁的议论在近日确有升温的趋势。《人民日报海外版》及《中国日报》均发表评论文章，建议制裁日本，《中国日报》更以《应该制裁日本》（“Consider Sanction Japan”）为题。

In fact,Talk about sanctions in recently is heating up trend.[People's Daily overseas edition]and[China Daily]All comments on this paper,Suggest sanctions against Japan,[China Daily]More in order to[Should sanctions against Japan]("Consider Sanction Japan")issues.

　　“本来日本对华投资就不多，一直强调此类政治性"中国风险"，又加上当前中国经济放缓，更使得金融投资下滑。”宋文洲表示。

"Was the Japanese investment in China is not,Always emphasized that such political"China's risk",And with China's current economic slowdown,More make financial investment glide."SongWenZhou said.

　　据数据提供商CEIC的数字显示，根据中国政府数据计算，中国2011年来自日本的外商直接投资为63亿美元，自1996年以来累计获得690亿美元的投资。该数额与美欧相比差距很大。

According to the data provider CEIC digital display,According to the Chinese government data calculation,In 2011 China from Japan's foreign direct investment of usd 6.3 billion,Since 1996, accumulative total $69 billion investment.The amount and compared the us and Europe difference.

　　至于这场风波未来对金融领域的影响，张建平表示，短期内还较难评价，因为受到一系列复杂因素左右。中长期影响还要看日本接下来如何表现。

As for the fallout in the financial future in the field of influence,Wang zy said,In the short term is more difficult to evaluation,Due to a series of complicated factors or so.Long-term influence will see how Japan next performance.

　　宋文洲持较悲观预期，他认为，双边金融合作将服从于两国政治关系。在中日关系缓和前，金融合作“不可能得到进展，已经开始的会停止，没开始的也不会谈的”。

SongWenZhou hold a pessimistic expectations,He thinks,Bilateral financial cooperation between the two countries will be subject to political relations.In the sino-japanese relations before easing,Financial cooperation"Can't get progress,Has begun to will stop,Don't start the talks".