国务院日前批准了由中国人民银行、银监会、证监会、保监会、外管局共同编制的《金融业发展和改革“十二五”规划》，主要涉及金融改革的多个方面。这对我国的货币政策及相关行业有何影响？券商研究认为:

The state council has approved by the people's bank of China/The CBRC/CSRC/circ/Jointly compiled by the ministry of the safe[The financial industry development and reform"1025"planning],Mainly involves many aspects of financial reform.This to our country monetary policy and related industries have any influence?Brokers research think:

　　货币政策稳定物价 直接融资占比提升 Monetary policy to stabilize prices for direct financing than ascension

　　⊙国泰君安证券研究所

⊙ guotai junan securities research institute

　　一、金改规划的两大量化目标 a/Gold change planning two big quantification target

　　金改规划主要有两大量化目标，主要目标之一是金融总量保持平稳较快增长。全面发展金融服务业，“十二五”时期金融服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重保持在5%左右，社会融资规模保持适度增长。

Gold change planning mainly has two big quantification target,One of the main target is total finance sustain steady and fast growth.All-round development of financial services,"1025"Period financial services sector accounted for the proportion of GDP remain at around 5%,Social financing scale maintain moderate growth.

　　自2005年以来，金融业占比GDP持续上升，2009年金融业占比GDP已经超过5%，2009-2011年金融业占比GDP一直维持在5%以上，因此，“十二五”期间维持和提高金融服务业在GDP中5%的比重是可以实现的目标。

Since 2005,The financial industry of GDP than continue to rise,2009 years of financial industry than GDP has more than 5%,2009-2011 years of financial industry than GDP has been maintained at more than 5%,therefore,"1025"Maintain and improve during the financial services in GDP is 5% of the target can be realized.

　　2009-2011年，金融服务业在GDP中的占比稳定在5%左右。假设“十二五”期间名义经济规模每年增长15%，则至2015年底金融服务业增加值可达42万亿元以上。

2009-2011,Financial services in the GDP accounted for stable than at around 5%.hypothesis"1025"The name during economic scale grew by 15% a year,By the end of 2015 the financial services industry added value of 42 trillion yuan of above.

　　金改规划的另外一个主要目标是到“十二五”期末，非金融企业直接融资占社会融资规模比重提高至15%以上。

Gold change planning another main objective is to"1025"The final,Non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing accounted for the proportion of social financing scale increased to more than 15%.

　　非金融企业直接融资分为债券融资和股权融资，过去十年非金融企业直接融资增长是非常迅猛的。非金融企业直接融资/社会融资的比值持续增长，2011年占比达到14%，2012年前7月该占比已经超过了15%，达到15.3%。在信贷增速放缓、债券融资发展过程中，企业直接融资占比社会融资总量达到和超过15%是可以在“十二五”期间完成的目标。未来信贷增长将长期放缓，股市的相对低迷也将限制企业进行股权融资，企业债券融资将在未来相当长的一段时间里逐渐成为企业融资的主要方式，其重要性将逐渐超过信贷和股权融资。

Non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing is divided into debt financing and equity financing,Over the past ten years non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing growth is very rapid.Non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing/social financing ratio growth,In 2011 reached 14%,2012 years ago the accounts for July than has surpassed 15%,Up to 15.3%.In credit growth is slowing/In the process of the development of bond financing,The enterprise of direct financing than social financing amount to more than 15% and can be in"1025"Done during target.The future credit growth will slow for a long time,The stock market downturn will limit the relative enterprise equity financing,Corporate bond financing will be in the future a long period of time gradually become the main mode of enterprise financing,Its importance will gradually over credit and equity financing.

　　二、货币政策突出稳定物价 two/Monetary policy outstanding stabilize prices

　　“十二五”期间，货币调控将更加突出价格稳定目标。作为宏观调控方面的政策，对该项政策的着力点位列金改《规划》提出的八个主要政策着力点的第一位。

"1025"period,Currency regulation will be more outstanding price stability target.As the macroeconomic regulation and control policy,The policy to the starting point of gold in the change[planning]Put forward eight major policy point of strength first.

　　中国的货币政策一直以来是多目标制，其中保持经济增长、维持物价稳定是最重要的两个目标。货币调控更突出价格稳定目标，意味着通胀目标在央行货币政策调控中的权重将比以往有所增大。

China's monetary policy has been much targeting,Among them maintain economic growth/Maintain price stability is the most important two goals.Currency regulation more outstanding price stability target,Means that the inflation target in the central bank monetary policy than ever before the weight is increased.

　　当前的通胀环境实际较为温和，综合来看预计9月份CPI为1.9%，其中食品环比为0.7%，同比为3.0%；非食品环比为0.2%，同比为1.4%。在目前的通胀环境下，货币政策实际存在放松空间。在美联储QE3推动下，大宗商品价格仍将处于较高水平，但只要国内货币政策保持适度，则国内通胀水平仍将是温和的。

The current inflation environment actual moderate,Comprehensive to see in September CPI is expected to 1.9%,The food chain is 0.7%,Up to 3.0%;The food chain is 0.2%,Up to 1.4%.In the current inflation environment,Monetary policy in existence space to relax.In the federal reserve QE3 driven,Commodity prices will remain in a higher level,But as long as domestic monetary policy to keep a proper,The domestic inflation level will still is mild.

　　三、推进利率市场化改革 three/Promote market-oriented interest rate reform

　　金改规划强调“推进金融市场基准利率体系建设，进一步发挥上海银行间同业拆放利率的基准作用，扩大其在市场化产品中的应用，健全中长期市场收益率曲线”等。

Gold change planning emphasizes"To promote financial market benchmark interest rate system construction,Shanghai further play to the interbank loan interest rates reference role,To expand its market products in the application,Improve the long-term market yield curve", etc.

　　随着利率市场化进程的展开，理财产品等表外业务的发展，以及商业银行为争夺存款对存款基准利率进行上浮，市场利率与基准利率之间的差异已经非常明显，以SHIBOR作为市场基准利率的重要性不断提高。

With the interest rate marketization process of the expansion,Financial products off-balance sheet business development,And commercial Banks to compete for deposit to benchmark deposit rate to rise,Market interest rates and the difference between the benchmark interest rate has been very clear,To SHIBOR as the importance of market benchmark interest rate continuously improve.

　　四、完善人民币汇率形成改革 four/We will improve the RMB exchange rate reform

　　金改规划强调“完善人民币汇率形成机制，逐步实现人民币资本项目可兑换，进一步改进外汇储备经营管理”。

Gold change planning emphasizes"We will improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,Gradually make the yuan convertible under capital accounts,Further improve the foreign exchange reserve management".

　　在利率市场化和人民币国际化同步推进时代，在汇改层面加大人民币汇率波动灵活度、加大货币互换、大力发展离岸人民币市场、发展人民币衍生品，这些都是可操作的具体细节。

In the interest rate marketization and RMB internationalization synchronous propulsion era,In the exchange the RMB exchange rate fluctuation change level increase flexibility/Increase currency swap/Vigorously develop offshore RMB market/The development of renminbi derivatives,These are the details of the operation.

　　随着人民币国际化的推进，在岸和离岸人民币汇率走势越来越高度一致。自2008年12月以来，人民银行与韩国、日本、中东、澳大利亚、东盟等多个国家和地区签署货币互换，人民币货币互换规模迅速增长。

Along with the advancement of RMB internationalization,The and offshore RMB exchange rate movements more and more highly consistent.Since since December 2008,The people's bank and South Korea/Japan/Middle East/Australia/Asean and other countries and regions signed currency swap,RMB currency swap scale rapid growth.

　　五、金融宏观审慎监管 five/Financial macro prudential supervision

　　金改十二五规划强调把货币信贷和流动性管理等总量调节与强化宏观审慎管理相结合。2008年国际金融危机爆发后，构建宏观审慎政策框架成为国际金融改革的重点之一。宏观审慎政策是指以防范系统性金融风险为目标，主要采用审慎工具，以必要的治理架构为支持的相关政策。宏观审慎政策是宏观的、逆周期的政策，目的是更好地防范和管理跨时间维度和跨行业维度的整个金融体系的风险，解决金融体系顺经济周期性和系统性风险集中的问题，弥补微观审慎监管和传统货币政策工具在防范系统性金融风险方面的不足。

Gold change 1025 planning emphasizes the currency credit and liquidity management and total amount control and strengthen the combination of macro prudent management.In 2008, the international financial crisis after the outbreak,Constructing macroscopic prudent policy framework become one of the focal points of international financial reform.Macro prudent policy refers to prevent systemic financial risk as the goal,Mainly USES the prudent tool,With the necessary management framework for support of relevant policies.Macro prudent policy is macro/Countercyclical policy,The goal is to better prevention and management span the time dimension and the multi-industry dimension of the whole financial system risk,The financial system to solve the economic cyclical and systemic risk concentration of problem,Make up for microscopic prudential supervision and traditional monetary policy tools to prevent systemic financial risk insufficiency.

　　因此，未来对宏观经济和金融系统监管将更为立体和全面，微观审慎、宏观审慎、传统货币政策正在互相结合。

therefore,The future and the macro economic and financial system regulation will be more solid and comprehensive,Microscopic prudent/Macroscopic prudent/The traditional monetary policy are combined with each other.

　　银行业：进入大有可为战略机遇期 banking:Enter the have a brilliant future period of strategic opportunities

　　⊙东方证券研究所

⊙ Orient securities research institute

　　重大机遇期体现为金融业功能的大幅强化，而非总量成长。《金融业发展和改革“十二五”规划》并不要求金融业超速增长，只表示金融业增加值占比保持在5%左右。但对于功能强化提出了全方位的要求：（1）推动金融机构主体结构的多元化，计划到“十二五”期末将直接融资占比从11%提高至15%以上。“银行、证券、保险等主要金融行业的行业结构和组织体系更为合理”，即扩大证券、保险等非银机构比重。（2）资源配置更多地由市场而非银行来完成，“市场在金融资源配置中的基础性作用进一步增强”。（3）上述两个方面是理顺量的问题，而在价格上，“利率市场化改革取得明显进展，人民币汇率形成机制进一步完善”。（4）金融机构成长的要点是金融创新，“以提高金融服务能力和效率为根本目的，鼓励和加强金融组织、产品和服务模式创新”。

Major opportunity period embodied in the financial industry function greatly strengthen,Rather than total growth.[The financial industry development and reform"1025"planning]Does not require financial speed growth,Only expresses the value added of the financial industry than to keep at around 5%.But to strengthen the function put forward a full range of requirements:(1)Promote the main structure of the diversified financial institutions,Plans to"1025"The final will be of direct financing than from 11% to more than 15%."The bank/securities/Insurance and other major financial industry industry structure and organization system is more reasonable",Namely expand securities/Insurance not silver body weight.(2)The allocation of resources more by market and non-bank to complete,"The market in the allocation of financial resources to further strengthen the basic role".(3)The above two aspects is straighten out the problem of quantity,And on the price,"Interest rate marketization reform made obvious progress,The RMB exchange rate formation mechanism to further improve".(4)Financial institutions growth point is that financial innovation,"In order to improve the financial service ability and efficiency as the basic purpose,Encourage and strengthen financial organizations/Products and service mode innovation".

　　新的监管框架意味着逆周期信贷投放已经成为过去式。“建立、完善逆周期缓冲资本和前瞻性拨备制度”，“针对系统重要性金融机构设定更为严格的资本和流动性要求”，这些意味着银行逆周期信贷投放将承受巨大的成本。

New regulatory framework means countercyclical credit availability has become the past tense."To establish/Perfect countercyclical buffer capital and prospective provision system","According to system importance financial institutions set up more strict capital and liquidity requirements",These mean that the bank countercyclical credit availability will bear huge cost.

　　非银成长机会明显大于银行。从《规划》措辞上即可看出：“完善”银行业体系，“鼓励”建成现代保险业，“积极支持”证券公司做优做强。中国金融结构高度失衡，上述主体政策上的差异就是为了纠正这种主体结构的失衡。

The silver growth opportunities significantly greater than the bank.from[planning]The phrase can see:"perfect"Banking system,"encourage"Built modern insurance,"Active support"Securities companies do best and stronger.China's financial structure height imbalances,The main policy differences is to correct the main structure of the imbalance.

　　行政推动的银行经营差异化。银行监管表现出差异化的引导倾向：建设一批具有良好品牌形象和国际竞争力的大型商业银行；鼓励中小商业银行选择合理的市场定位，提高可持续发展能力和竞争能力；促进地方中小商业银行更加专注于社区居民和小微企业金融服务。

Administrative promote bank business differentiation.Bank supervision on business performance of the alienation of guide tendency:To construct a group of good brand image and the international competitiveness of a large commercial bank;Encourage small and medium-sized commercial Banks to choose reasonable market position,Improve the sustainable development ability and competition ability;Promote the local small and medium-sized commercial Banks more focus on community residents and small micro enterprise financial services.

　　投资策略与建议：预计未来中国金融业将迎来快速功能强化的战略机遇期，非银金融比重有望明显上升。银行业继续有总量成长但占比将下降，而不同银行间的战略差异度将显著扩大。继续推荐长期战略有优势的民生银行(600016,股吧)、交通银行(601328,股吧)等银行股。

Investment strategies and Suggestions:The expected future of China's financial industry will have fast to strengthen the function of the period of strategic opportunities,The silver financial proportion is expected to rise significantly.The banking industry will continue to have the total amount of growth but than will decline,And between the different bank strategic difference degree will significantly expand.Continue to recommend long-term strategic advantage of minsheng bank(600016,guba)/Bank of communications(601328,guba)Bank shares, such as.

　　证券期货业：最直接受益于金融创新发展 Stock futures:The most direct benefit from the development of financial innovation

　　⊙国金证券(600109,股吧)研究所

⊙ countries gold securities(600109,guba)institute

　　相较于“十一五”规划，“十二五”规划更为明确表明扶持证券公司“做优做强”的态度。证券期货公司仍是金融创新发展最直接的受益行业，但未来可期待的创新政策多在预期中。《规划》提出“十二五”期间要“鼓励创新，加快建设多层次金融市场体系”，“加快建设覆盖全国的统一监管的场外交易市场”、“探索建立国际板”、“积极发展债券市场”、“推动发展期货和金融衍生品市场”，证券期货公司都将作为中介机构积极参与其中，分享金融行业发展，提升盈利能力。但未来可期待的政策多在预期中，已推出的创新业务中仅两融、直投等业务显示盈利贡献。

Compared with"11th five-year plan"planning,"1025"Planning more clearly show that support securities company"Do best and stronger"attitude.Securities and futures company is still financial innovation and development is the most direct benefit industry,But can look forward to the future of the innovation policy in more than expected.[planning]Put forward"1025"Period to"Encourage innovation,Speed up the construction of the multi-level financial market system","Speed up the construction of the nationwide unified supervision of the over-the-counter market"/"Explore establish international plate"/"The positive development of the bond market"/"To promote the development of futures and financial derivatives market",Securities and futures companies will as intermediary organizations actively involved,Share the financial industry development,Improve profitability.But can look forward to the future policy in the expected,Has launched innovation business only two melting/Straight investment business display profit contribution.

　　将“资产管理业务发展”提升至重要高度，理财市场大发展下券商资管有机遇有挑战。监管层对“发展资产管理业务、壮大机构投资者”的态度非常明确，《规划》提出要“促进创业投资和股权投资机构健康发展，规范发展私募基金机构。鼓励证券公司、基金管理公司等金融机构不断扩大资产管理业务，适时研究推动期货公司开展资产管理业务”。我们预计，监管机构继放宽证券公司资产管理业务投资范围后，也将拓宽公募基金的投资范围。我们也大胆推测，“十二五”期间将迎来广义资产管理业务的大发展。面对不断拓宽的投资领域、产品形式，以及来自银行、信托、公募等的竞争，券商资管有机遇有挑战。

will"Asset management business development"Ascension to important height,Financial market development securities under information tube with opportunities challenges.Supervision layer to"The development of the asset management business/Expand institutional investors"Attitude is very clear,[planning]Puts forward to want to"To promote the venture investment and equity investment institutions healthy development,The normalized development of private equity institutions.Encourage a securities company/The fund management companies, and other financial institutions continue to expand the asset management business,Timely research push the futures companies in asset management business".We expect,Regulators to relax after a securities company asset management business investment area,Will also expand public offering fund investment scope.We also bold speculation,"1025"Period will have generalized asset management business development.In the face of the expanding of investments/Product form,As well as from the bank/trust/Public offering of competition,Brokers endowment tube with opportunities challenges.

　　其他非银行金融：期货受益产品推动+业务创新，将迎来新繁荣；农村金融机构和小贷公司获扶持；信托和金融租赁未有明确提及。

Other non-bank financial:Futures benefit products promote + business innovation,Will have new prosperity;Rural financial institutions and small credit company won the support;Trust and financial leasing no explicit reference.

　　期货：《规划》明确支持“期货公司通过兼并重组、增资扩股等方式进一步壮大规模和实力，推动优质期货公司开展境外期货经纪业务、资产管理业务等”。此外，行业“推动发展商品指数期货、商品期权、原油期货、碳排放权期货等，适时推出国债期货，积极稳妥发展其他权益类金融期货期权产品，以及利率、外汇期货期权产品等金融衍生品”，为期货行业繁荣发展创造了良好契机。

futures:[planning]Explicitly support"Futures companies through the merger and reorganization/Increase endowment spread, etc further expand scale and strength,Promote quality futures companies to carry out overseas futures brokerage business/The asset management business, etc".In addition,industry"To promote the development of commodity index futures/Commodity option/Crude oil futures/Carbon emissions futures, etc,Timely launch t-bond futures,The active and steady development of other rights and interests kind financial futures and options products,And interest rates/Currency futures option financial derivatives products, etc",For the futures industry prosperity and development to create a good opportunity.

　　农村金融机构和小贷公司：金融十二五规划强调对薄弱领域的金融支持，重点在农村金融及小微金融领域。《规划》提及“支持民间参与设立村镇银行、贷款公司、农村资金互助社等新型农村金融机构和小额贷款公司”，以增强对“三农”和小微企业的金融服务。

Rural financial institutions and small credit company:Financial 1025 planning emphasizes the weak areas of financial support,Focus on the rural financial and small micro finance field.[planning]mentioned"Support the establishment of private participation in village bank/Loan company/The rural mutual cooperatives and so on the new rural financial institutions and petty loan company",To strengthen the"Agriculture, countryside and farmers"And small micro enterprise's financial services.

　　信托、租赁：“十一五”规划曾提及：“信托投资公司要办成提供资产管理、财务顾问等服务的专业化理财机构。发挥金融租赁公司在企业技术更新、设备改造和中小企业融资等方面的积极作用，鼓励商业银行参股或设立金融租赁公司”，期间信托和金融租赁公司确实获得了高速发展。而“十二五”规划对信托和金融租赁行业并未有重点提及。

trust/lease:"11th five-year plan"Planning mentioned:"The trust and investment companies will be provide asset management/Financial advisers and other services professional financial institutions.Play a financial leasing company in enterprise technology update/Equipment transformation and small and medium-sized enterprise financing, such as positive role,Encourage commercial bank shares or to set up financial leasing company",During the trust and financial leasing company really won the high speed development.and"1025"Planning to trust and financial leasing industry did not have the key point mention.

　　投资建议。证券行业：看好行业长期发展趋势，但从投资策略角度仍建议谨慎对待短期反弹。行业目前经营情况并不具备产生趋势性行情的基础，推荐组合：估值安全+业绩风险低，维持对中信证券(600030,股吧)、海通证券(600837,股吧)和长江证券(000783,股吧)的推荐，还可关注高弹性+业绩改善趋势不错的东吴证券(601555,股吧)。

Investment advice.Securities industry:Value industry long-term development trend,But from the Angle of investment strategy is still suggest careful with short-term rebound.Industry at present business is not have produced the basis of market trend,Recommend combination:Valuation security + performance low risk,To maintain citic securities(600030,guba)/Haitong securities(600837,guba)And Yangtze river securities(000783,guba)recommendation,Still can pay attention to high elastic + performance improvement trend good soochow securities(601555,guba).

　　期货行业：产品推动+业务创新，将促使期货行业进入新一轮高速增长期，持续看好期货行业的后期发展，推荐中国中期(000996,股吧)和浙江东方(600120,股吧)。

Futures industry:Products promote + business innovation,Will enable the futures industry into a new round of high-speed growth,Continued good futures industry's later development,Recommend Chinese middle(000996,guba)And zhejiang east(600120,guba).