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中信证券:QE3无助油价 国际油价仍将回调--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-09-20

  和讯网消息 9月20日,继美联储推出QE3后,国际原油价格不升反降,周三10月份交割的轻质原油大跌3.31美元,报收于91.98美元,跌幅为3.5%。中信证券(600030,股吧)发布报告称,QE3流动性释放规模要显著小于前两轮,因此对油价提升作用十分有限,后期将出现一定的回调。

HeXunWang news on September 20,,After the fed out after QE3,The international crude oil price does not rise but lower,On Wednesday October delivery of light crude oil drop $3.31,At at $91.98,Down 3.5%.Citic securities(600030,guba)Released the report says,QE3 liquidity release scale to a significantly less than the first two wheel,Therefore ascension to oil prices role is very limited,Later will appear a certain callback.

  报告称,美国的三次量化宽松政策均助推油价的上涨,但效果明显递减。QE3进一步支持经济复苏和劳工市场,但除每月购买400亿美元抵押贷款支持证券外,却未说明购买规模和执行期限。期间流动性释放量明显缩水,与前两轮不可比拟,因此对油价提升作用将十分有限。

The report says,America's three quantitative easing policy are boosting the rise in the price of oil,But the effect obviously decreasing.QE3 further support economic recovery and labor market,But in addition to $40 billion a month to buy mortgage-backed securities outside,But didn't explain buy scale and execution time.During liquidity to release a quantity to shrink significantly,And the first two wheel can be compared,Therefore ascension to oil prices would function much limited.

  虽然三、四季度通常是原油消费旺季,但随着北海油田生产逐渐恢复,以及伊拉克产量的继续抬升,全球原油供应量整体将较为宽松。此外,据监测数据显示,国际金融资本对原油的净多持仓已下降到历史均值附近,显示出了一定的谨慎情绪。

Although the three/The fourth quarter is usually crude oil consumption season,But as the north sea oil field production recover gradually,And Iraq output continue to uplift,Global oil supply whole will more comfortable.In addition,According to the monitoring data shows,International financial capital for crude oil in the net more position has fallen to historic near the mean,Show a certain cautious mood.

  中信证券认为,油价的利空因素在持续累积,单纯依靠流动性的宽松较难支撑目前的价格,如果在我国东海和南海不发生大规模战事的前提下,国际油价将出现一定回调,幅度与欧美经济数据的好坏密切相关。

Citic securities think,Oil prices bad factors in continuous cumulative,Only depend upon the liquidity of the loose more difficult to support the current price,If in the east China sea and south China sea in our country does not occur large scale under the premise of the battle,International oil prices will appear a certain callback,Amplitude and Europe and the United States the stand or fall of economic data is closely related.



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