第1页:林毅夫谈全球增长与中国发展 The first page: Justin yifu Lin talk about global growth and China's development 第2页:下篇：“超越发展瓶颈” Page 2: the next:"Beyond the development bottleneck"

　　结合新结构经济学理论，应当通过“超越凯恩斯主义”，实施大规模全球基础设施投资计划，以对冲经济危机

Combined with new structure economics theory,Should be through the"Beyond the Keynesian",Carried out large-scale global infrastructure investment plan,In order to reduce the economic crisis

　　2012年6月，林毅夫卸任世界银行高级副行长、首席经济学家之职，从华盛顿回到北京大学朗润园，以北大国家发展研究院名誉院长的身份重执教鞭。

In June 2012,Justin yifu Lin former world bank senior vice President/The position of chief economist,From Washington back to Beijing university green garden,With the national development research institute of Peking University honorary President of the identity retry pointer.

　　在世行工作4年间，他是时任世界银行行长佐利克的首席经济顾问，同时分管发展经济学研究。基于在全球的深入调研与学术思考，林毅夫进一步完善了落后国家后发优势理论，并将其升华为“新结构经济学”。他希望通过这一学说，在新古典经济学“总量平衡”的基础上，创新引入“结构”概念，坚持发展中国家和发达国家比其比较优势决定于各自的要素禀赋的一贯主张，为金融危机后的全球经济增长开出新药方。

The bank's work four years,He is the world bank President Robert zoellick's chief economic adviser,At the same time for development economics research.Based on the deep research in the world and academic thinking,Justin yifu Lin further perfected the backward countries late-development advantage theory,And its sublimation for"The new structure economics".He hope that through this theory,In the new classical economics"Total balance"Based on,Innovation into"structure"concept,Adhere to the developing countries and developed countries than its comparative advantage depends on their respective factor endowment consistent position,After the financial crisis for global economic growth open new prescription.

　　归国三个月后，林毅夫把在世行4年间的研究成果陆续结集出版，《新结构经济学》、《繁荣的求索》、《从西潮到东风》等著作引起各界高度关注，亦引发一些学术争论。在《从西潮到东风》一书中，林毅夫系统剖析了2008年金融危机成因，结合新结构经济学理论，通过“超越凯恩斯主义”，提出“大规模实施全球基础设施投资计划、为贫穷国家带来新机遇，为发达国家走出危机创造条件”等政策主张。他还在凯恩斯“班柯”货币假说的基础上，提出创立以纸黄金为全球储备货币的改革构想。

Returned after three months,Justin yifu Lin in the four years in the research results published collection,[The new structure economics]/[Prosperous search]/[From the west to the east]And so on the work caused attention from all walks of life,Also trigger some academic debate.in[From the west to the east]book,Justin yifu Lin system analyzes the causes of the financial crisis in 2008,Combined with new structure economics theory,Through the"Beyond the Keynesian",Put forward"Large-scale implementation of global infrastructure investment plan/For poor countries to bring new opportunities,For developed countries out of the crisis to create conditions"Policies advocated.He's still in the Keynesian"Class ko"On the basis of monetary hypothesis,Founded in put forward paper gold for the global reserve currency reform ideas.

　　书中贯穿着对既有经济理论、危机成因的颠覆与纠偏，在国内外经济学界引发越来越多的关注。就此论点，林毅夫曾和多名诺贝尔经济学奖得主，比如斯蒂格利茨、加里·贝克尔、佛格尔、赫克曼、麦尔逊等展开学术争论。

The book through to both economic theory/The cause of the crisis subversion and rectification,In the economic circle both at home and abroad caused more and more attention.In this argument,Justin yifu Lin had and more than Nobel economic prize winner,For example SiDiGeLiCi/Gary becker/Buddha Kruger/HeKeMan/MaiErXun etc.of academic debate.

　　几个月来，林毅夫还在公开场合多次阐明对中国经济发展现状与未来趋势的观点。他认为，2008年之后中国政府主导的“四万亿”刺激计划总体上利大于弊；根据经济增长的动力是技术创新和产业升级的事实，中国现阶段仍需以投资为主才能追赶发达国家；比照日、韩、中国台湾地区等经济体利用后发优势的发展经验，中国大陆未来20年仍有年均增长8%的潜力。

A few months,Justin yifu Lin is still in public clarify many times to China's economic development present situation and the future trend of the view.He thinks,2008 years after the Chinese government leading"Four trillion"Stimulus package on the whole more good than harm;According to the economic growth is the technology innovation and industry upgrading facts,China's current will need to investment primarily to pursue the developed countries;, in/Korea/China Taiwan economy use of advantage of backwardness of development experience,Mainland China the next 20 years there are still grew at an average annual rate of 8% of the potential.

　　金秋时节，林毅夫两度接受《财经》(博客,微博)专访，就新结构经济学、金融危机成因、“新马歇尔计划”、国际货币体系改革、中国发展道路等议题进行系统阐释。他期望以老子的“常无”心态审视世界，以免有“前识者，道之华而愚之始”之憾。

Golden autumn,Justin yifu Lin twice to accept[financial](blog,Micro bo)interview,New structure economics/Financial crisis causes/"New Marshall plan"/The international monetary system reform/China's development road, and other questions proceed system interpretation.He expects to laozi's"Often no"Mentality look at the world,So as not to"Lesson before,Tao hua and the beginning of fools"Blemish of.

　　淮南为橘，淮北为枳。他认为，发达国家的一些既有经济理论，并不完全适合发展中国家，不能简单照搬，更何况发达国家的理论本身也不断在发展，旧理论不断为新理论所扬弃。

Huainan for orange,Huaibei thunb for.He thinks,Some developed countries both economic theory,Is not completely suitable for developing countries,Cannot simply copy,Besides the developed countries theory itself is constantly in the development,The old theory unceasingly for the new theory sublation.

　

　上篇：寻求增长新动力 Retrospection of:Seek the new growth

　　失衡之源 Source of imbalance

　　《财经》：你在最近出版的《本体与常无：关于经济学方法论的对话》一书中提出，应以“常无”心态研究经济学问题，为什么研究经济学要持此心态？

[financial]:In the latest issue of you[Ontology and frequently have no:The dialogue about economics methodology]Presented in the book,Should be"Often no"Mentality economics problems,Why study economics to hold this state of mind?

　　林毅夫：这本书是谈方法论的。从1995年开始，我就提倡中国经济学研究必须本土化、规范化，然后是国际化。

Justin yifu Lin:This book is about the methodology.Begin from 1995,I advocate China economics research must be localization/standardization,Then is the internationalization.

　　理论是一个简单的逻辑体系，理论首先必须内部逻辑达到自洽。所有理论都在解释现象背后几个变量的因果关系，理论的推论必须跟要解释的现象一致。自然科学的证伪是相对容易的，因为它可做可控试验。社会科学的证伪要难一些，在这一过程中，各种质疑、争论都在所难免，这也是证伪的过程。

Theory is a simple logic system,Theory must first internal logic to self consistency.All theory in explaining the phenomenon behind several variables causal relationship,A combination of theoretical reasoning must follow to explain the phenomenon of consistent.Natural science is relatively easy to refutation,Because it can be controlled test.Social science refutation to some difficult,In this process,All kinds of questions/Arguments are unavoidable,This is also the process of falsification.

　　关于2008年这一轮金融危机的成因，国外的理论界和舆论界普遍认为源于国际的贸易不均衡，而贸易不均衡则是由东亚经济所致。目前有多个理论假说。包括：东亚出口导向战略；为自保，依赖出口积累大量外汇；人民币汇率被低估。这些理论在逻辑上都能自洽。但是，我们还可以构建几个理论假说，诸如：美国金融机构的高杠杆和低利率，引发房地产泡沫和过度消费；或是，中国面临即将到来的人口老龄化，必然增加储蓄；大国经济结构扭曲，诸如此类。因此，不能因为一个理论逻辑自洽就认为它是对的。

About 2008 this round of the cause of the financial crisis,Foreign theorists and the media is generally believed that comes from international trade imbalance,And the trade imbalance is caused by the east Asian economy.There are many theoretical hypothesis.including:East Asia's export orientation strategy;For holding,Rely on exports of accumulate a large amount of foreign exchange;The exchange rate for the renminbi is undervalued.These theory in logic can self consistency.but,We can also build a few theoretical hypothesis,Such as:The United States financial institutions, high leverage and low interest rates,Cause a real estate bubble and excessive consumption;or,China faces the upcoming an aging population,Will surely increase savings;Major economy structure distortion,such.therefore,Cannot because a theoretical logic self consistency will think it is right.

　　《财经》：在分析本轮金融危机成因时，东亚地区、尤其是中国受到的非议最多。在你看来，这些批评虽然逻辑自洽，但与现实不符？

[financial]:On the analysis of this financial crisis when causes,East Asia/Especially in China by most criticism.In your opinion,These criticisms though logic self consistency,But with the facts?

　　林毅夫：一些学者提出，由于国际收支不平衡，中国累积了大量外汇，并以此购买美国等发达国家的国债，压低利率，无形中鼓励了各种投机，包括吹大房地产泡沫。另外，长期以来，东亚经济实施出口导向政策，加上东亚各国吸取亚洲金融危机爆发时缺乏外汇的教训，造成出口攀升，贸易积累过多，种下了危机的恶果。

Justin yifu Lin:Some scholars put forward,The international balance of payment,China has accumulated a large number of foreign exchange,And with this the power to purchase the developed countries such as the United States government debt,Down interest rates,Virtually encourage various speculation,Including blow the big real estate bubble.In addition,For a long time,East Asia economic implementation guide of export policy,East Asian countries and learn from the Asian financial crisis in the teaching of the lack of foreign exchange,Cause rising export,Trade accumulation too much,The consequences of the crisis.

　　这些学者只看到问题的一部分，此谓“瞎子摸象”，甚至有些人知道问题并非源自东亚，只是出于政治利益考量，此谓“指鹿为马”。

These scholars see only part of the problem,This call"The blind man feels like",Even some people know what the problem is not from east Asia,Just out of political interest considerations,This call"deer".

　　《财经》：实际上，东亚和中国并不是本轮金融危机的主要成因？

[financial]:In fact,East Asia and China is not the main reasons of this financial crisis?

　　林毅夫：我认为，上述只是现象的一面，而非成因。

Justin yifu Lin:I think,The above is just one side of the phenomenon,Rather than cause.

　　东亚推行出口导向战略并非近10年的事。上世纪五六十年代后的日、韩、中国台湾地区，以及改革开放后的中国大陆都推行出口导向战略，但全球出现贸易失衡只是这几年的事情。不能用一个已经用了五六十年的战略来解释这十年发生的事情。

Implementation of the east Asia's export orientation strategy is not nearly 10 years of things.The s after the day/Korea/Chinese Taiwan area,And after the reform and opening of China are export orientation strategy implementation,But global trade imbalances in just over the past few years things.Can't use a have used the five hundred and sixty strategy to explain this decade happen.

　　如果说，国际贸易不平衡是东亚为了积累外汇而“自保”的结果，那又如何解释发生在日本和德国的情况？日元和欧元都是国际储备货币，完全可以靠印钞票来支付各种需要，并不需要靠积累外汇自保。但新世纪以来，它们的贸易盈余增加幅度与东亚经济体相当。以日本为例，1993年-1994年的外汇储备约1000亿美元，2006年则增至1万亿美元。这些完全没有自保需要的国家，外汇储备何以增加如此之多？可见，上述理论并不具有说服力。

if,International trade imbalances is east Asia in order to accumulate foreign exchange and"holding"results,So how to explain happened in Japan and Germany?The Japanese yen and the euro is the international reserve currency,Can completely by printing money to pay for all kinds of needs,Do not need to rely on accumulation of foreign currency holding.But since the new century,They trade surplus increase amplitude and east Asian economies quite.In Japan, for example,In 1993-1994 years of foreign exchange reserves of about 100 billion dollars,In 2006, to $1 trillion.These no captive nations that need,Foreign exchange reserves increase why so many?visible,The above theory is not convincing.

　　《财经》：中国在新世纪伊始加入WTO后，贸易顺差的确大幅上升，进而加剧了国际贸易的失衡。

[financial]:At the beginning of the new century in China after joining the WTO,The trade surplus soared indeed,Then aggravate the international trade imbalances.

　　林毅夫：国际上对此的一个重要解释是人民币币值被低估，这最早是日本学者在2003年春提出的。当年秋天，美国加入这一“合唱”。但是，中国大陆当年的贸易顺差比1997年和1998年都要少。而在1997年和1998年，国际社会大多认为人民币币值被严重高估。这岂不是自相矛盾？

Justin yifu Lin:This international an important explanation is was undervalued,This is the first Japanese scholars put forward in the spring of 2003.The autumn,The United States to join this"chorus".but,China's trade surplus in more than 1997 and 1998 less.In 1997 and 1998,Most of the international community that the yuan is grossly overvalued.This is not contradictory?

　　中国大陆对美的贸易顺差大幅扩大，是2005年之后的事，但在2005年至2008年，人民币汇率升值了20%左右，按理说中国对美贸易顺差应该大幅减少，但2005年－2008年中国的贸易现状却正好相反。

Mainland China to the trade surplus greatly expanded,Is 2005 years later,But in 2005 to 2008,The exchange rate for the renminbi has risen 20%,By rights China's trade surplus with the us should be substantially reduced,But in 2005-2008 China's trade situation is opposite.

　　上述三个假说都认为全球贸易不均衡，美国贸易逆差扩大源于东亚。那么，与东亚经济竞争的其他国家在美国的贸易逆差中的占比应该减少。但上世纪九十年代，美国和东亚的贸易逆差占其贸易逆差总额的51%，新世纪第一个十年，这一占比缩减为38%。所以，造成美国贸易逆差扩大和全球贸易不均衡的原因并不在东亚。

The above three hypothesis that global trade imbalance,The us trade deficit to expand from east Asia.so,And east Asia economic competition of other countries in America's trade deficit than should reduce the accounted for.But in the 1990 s,The United States and east Asia's trade deficit account for 51% of the total amount of the us trade deficit,The first ten years of the new century,This accounts for more than 38% reduction.so,The us trade deficit caused by expanding and global trade imbalance reason not in east Asia.

　　《财经》：是否可以这样理解，作为世界第一大经济体，美国需求强劲。近10年间，美国需求进一步放大，是国际贸易失衡的根本原因？

[financial]:If you can understand it like this way,As the world's largest economy,The strong demand.Nearly 10 years,The United States needs further amplification,Is the root cause of the international trade imbalances?

　　林毅夫：美国最近几十年来不怎么生产一般消费品，这部分需求先从日本进口，后到亚洲四小龙，再后来转到中国大陆，这是美国对东亚逆差比较大的根源。但是新世纪以来，美国贸易逆差扩大则是由于美国国内新的政策造成。

Justin yifu Lin:The United States in recent decades not how general production consumer goods,This part needs to import from Japan,After the Asian tigers,Then turn to mainland China,This is the United States on east Asian deficit larger root.But since the new century,The us trade deficit is due to expand the domestic new policy cause.

　　上世纪80年代以来，美国金融监管开始放松，欧洲也是如此，允许金融高杠杆运作，增加流动性。加上2001年，互联网泡沫破灭，美联储在18个月内26次降息，进一步释放了大量流动性。这些流动性，催生了房地产泡沫，产生了财富效应，鼓励家庭过度消费。同时， 因为阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争，美国财政赤字也大增。这是造成美国贸易逆差大量扩大的真正原因。

Since the 1980 s,The United States financial supervision began to relax,Europe is so,Allow financial high lever operation,Increase liquidity.Add 2001 years,The Internet bubble burst,The fed in 18 months and time to cut interest rates,Further release a lot of liquidity.The liquidity,Led to the real estate bubble,Produce the wealth effect,Encourage households to excessive consumption.At the same time, Because the war in Afghanistan and Iraq war,The United States financial deficit also soars.This is caused by the us trade deficit of the real cause of the expanding.

　　美国的贸易逆差能够维持如此长的时间，是因为美国是国际货币储备国，可以印钞票来支撑各种购买、服务和还债。否则，美国必然会出现外汇短缺，过度消费根本无法持续。

America's trade deficit can maintain such a long time,Because the United States is the international monetary reserves kingdom,Can print money to support all kinds of purchase/Services and debts.otherwise,The United States will appear the shortage of foreign exchange,Excessive consumption can't continue.

　　除了美国的贸易逆差外，高杠杆和宽松的货币政策所带来的巨大流动性也造成大量资本外流。全球资本向发展中国家的外流在2000年只有2000多亿美元，2007年增长到1.2万亿美元。与此对应，并非国际货币储备国的发展中国家的外汇储备从2000年的不到1万亿美元，增加到2007年的近6万亿美元。

In addition to the U.S. trade deficit outside,High lever and loose monetary policy brought about by the huge liquidity also causes a lot of capital outflow.Global capital to the developing country's outflow in 2000, there were more than $2000,Growth in 2007 to $1.2 trillion.And the corresponding,Is not the international monetary reserves countries in the development of the country's foreign exchange reserves from 2000 in less than $1 trillion,Increase in 2007 to nearly $6 trillion.

　　除了货币美元化的国家，这些从贸易盈余或资本流入所积累的外汇难以在国内流通。因此，不管是私人拥有还是作为国家外汇储备，只有两种选择：一是锁在保险柜里，没有任何回报；另一种是投资于以美元为国内货币的国家，当然就是美国了，但这不是美国家庭过度消费的因，而是美国过度消费和流动性过剩、资金外流后的果。

In addition to monetary dollarization country,These from trade surplus or the capital inflows to the accumulation of foreign currency in the domestic circulation.therefore,Whether private or as China's foreign exchange reserves,Only two choices:One is to lock in the safe,There is nothing;Another is to invest in dollars for the domestic currency country,Of course is the United States,But this is not the American family because of excessive consumption,But the excessive consumption and excess liquidity/Capital flight after the fruit.

　　所以，贸易不平衡也好，地产泡沫也罢，或是百年一遇的金融危机，最根本的问题是美元作为国际储备货币，在国内角色和国际角色之间产生了冲突，只考虑前一方面的利益，最终导致了一系列的后果。

so,Trade imbalance or,Real estate foam or,Or financial crisis,The most fundamental problem is the dollar as an international reserve currency,In the domestic and international role role between the conflicts between,Only consider the interests of the former on the one hand,Eventually lead to a series of consequences.

　　

宽松只是“镇痛剂” Loose is just"analgesic"

　　《财经》：金融危机发生以来，美联储连推三轮货币量化宽松（QE），欧日亦在量化宽松，发达经济体利率已降至最低，但这未能阻止全球经济二度放缓。

[financial]:Since the financial crisis,The fed even push three monetary quantitative easing(QE),The day also in quantitative easing,Developed economies interest rates have been reduced to minimum,But this failed to stop the global economic slowdown in the second degree.

　　林毅夫：当前的焦点是欧洲债务危机。“如果希腊、西班牙、意大利等国得不到欧盟必要的短期援助，马上就会崩溃，其影响可能比雷曼兄弟倒闭对全世界的影响更大。

Justin yifu Lin:The current focus is the European debt crisis."If Greece/Spain/Italy and other countries can not get the necessary short-term aid,Will soon collapse,Its influence may be less than the lehman brothers collapse more influence to the whole world.

　　但是，即使欧洲中央银行、国际货币基金组织为这些发生主权债务危机的国家提供必要的短期援助，它们如果不进行内部结构性改革，降低工资、减少福利水平、金融去杠杆，这些援助只能是短期见效的止痛药，短则三月，长则九月，危机还会以更严重的方式卷土重来。

but,Even the European central bank/The international monetary fund for these happen sovereign debt crisis countries to provide the necessary short-term aid,They if not internal structural reform,Reduce wage/Reduce the welfare level/Financial to leverage,The aid is only short-term response painkillers,Short march is,Long is September,The crisis will be in a more serious way back.

　　在低利率和量化宽松的推动下，美国的道琼斯指数已经恢复到1998年以前的水平，甚至更高，但实体经济并未恢复，这一点投资者心知肚明。

In the low interest rates and the push of quantitative easing,The dow Jones index has been restored to the level of 1998 years ago,Even higher,But the real economy did not recover,It also investors.

　　如今发达国家房地产市场普遍过剩，低廉的资金不会流向房地产，而会流向股票市场。在没有实体经济的支撑下，这会造成发达国家股票市场泡沫不断发生、破灭。此外，过剩的短期资金也会大量流向国外，不仅炒高石油、粮食价格，还会有不少投机性资金流向发展中国家的股市、房市，推高汇率。

Now the real estate market in developed countries generally excess,Cheap money will not flow to the real estate,And will flow to the stock market.Without the support from the real economy,This will cause the developed countries the stock market bubble continuing happened/burst.In addition,Excessive short-term funds will also be a lot of going abroad,Not only high oil Fried/Food prices,There will be a lot of speculative capital flows to developing countries of the stock market/housing,Push high exchange rate.

　　高汇率会影响出口，当实体经济增长减弱，高企的股市、房市就会变成明显的泡沫。而泡沫总会破灭，从而投机资本开始唱空，游资大量抽离。这种资金的大量涌入和涌出，会造成发展中国家经济的巨大波动，给宏观决策带来困难。

High exchange rate will affect export,When the entity economic growth weakened,High stock market/The housing will become obvious foam.And bubble will burst,Thus speculative capital began to sing empty,A large number of idle funds to pull away.This kind of capital influx and gushed out,Can cause the development of national economy in the great fluctuation,To macroscopic decision-making difficult.

　　未来10年、20年，国际经济可能出现所谓的“新常态new normal”，即经济增长率非常低、货币非常宽松、投资风险大但回报较低。

The next 10 years/20 years,International economic may appear the so-called"The new normal new normal",Economic growth rate is very low/Very loose monetary/Investment risk big but returns is low.

　　《财经》：看起来不太乐观。我们曾采访美国总统经济顾问委员会前主席、芝加哥大学教授古尔斯比，他认为货币宽松无济于事，唯有结构调整方能解决当前的经济发展问题。

[financial]:Don't look too optimistic.We have interview with the President of the United States, a former chairman of the council of economic advisers/Chicago university professor, gul than,He thought that money loose of no help,Only structure adjustment can solve the current problems in economic development.

　　林毅夫：可是结构调整面临诸多困境。首先，结构调整在政治上难以推行。结构性改革固然在中长期能够提高增长率、竞争力、生产力，但是在短期内会减少需求、降低经济增长率、增加失业率。而发生危机的国家失业率已经非常地高——西班牙失业率达到23%，年轻人失业率更是达到50%以上。

Justin yifu Lin:But structure adjustment faces many difficulties.First of all,Structural adjustment politically difficult to implement.Structural reform is in the long-term growth rate can improve/competitiveness/productivity,But in the short term will reduce demand/Reduce the economic growth rate/Increase unemployment rate.And the crisis countries the unemployment rate has been very high - Spanish unemployment reached 23%,The young man unemployment rate is above 50%.

　　在这种状况下，他们如何推行增加失业率的改革？即使政府咬紧牙关推行结构性改革，由于失业率增加，社会开支必然会增加，经济增长率减少，政府的税收又减少，政府财政赤字继续增加，金融市场会对政府的还债能力产生怀疑，政府公债的利息负担也会再加重，这难以持续。

In this condition,How they implement the reform of the increasing unemployment?Even if the government bite the bullet carrying out structural reform,With unemployment rate increase,Social spending will increase,Economic growth rate reduce,The government's tax revenue and reduce,The government fiscal deficit continue to increase,Financial markets on the government's ability to service its debt suspicions,Government bond interest burden will further increase,This is hard to continue.

　　另外，“发生危机的南欧国家没有自己的货币，无法通过货币贬值增加出口、创造需求并增加就业的道路来缓解危机。即使欧元贬值，也会碰到经济结构相似的国家竞相货币贬值。前一阵，欧洲中央银行刚宣布要无限制购买政府公债，以增加货币供给，美联储主席伯南克马上表态美国也会这样做。美联储QE3推出之后，日本央行、英格兰银行和澳大利亚央行也加入“战团”，这就是货币竞争性贬值，结果大家都没有办法通过货币贬值走出危机。

In addition,"Crisis of southern Europe countries don't have their own currency,Not through the currency devaluation to increase exports/Create demand and increase employment way to alleviate the crisis.Even if the euro depreciation,Also will run into the economic structure similar national race to currency devaluation.Before a,The European central bank has just announced to unlimited buy government bonds,In order to increase the money supply,Federal reserve chairman Ben bernanke on the bandwagon right now and the United States also will do it.The fed QE3 after launch,The bank of Japan/The bank of England and Australia's central bank has also join"company",This is the monetary competitive devaluation,Results all have no way through the currency devaluation out of the crisis.

　　《财经》：因此，镇痛剂只能是把矛盾往后推？

[financial]:therefore,Analgesic can only be the contradictions push back?

　　林毅夫：往后推的结果是矛盾越积越多，越来越深重。政府债务在高失业率、高社会支出的状况之下，会积累得非常快。比如日本在1991年积累的政府债务只占国内生产总值的60%，现在已超过230%，美国也达到了100%。

Justin yifu Lin:Push back the result is contradiction is piling up,More and more serious.The government debt in the high unemployment/Under the condition of high social spending,Will accumulate very fast.As in Japan in the 1991 years of government debt is only 60% of GDP,Now has more than 230%,The United States also reached 100%.

　

　启动新马歇尔计划 Start new Marshall plan

　　《财经》：山穷水尽疑无路，能否寻找新路径走出“新常态”困境？

[financial]:At the end of his rope without doubt road,Can be looking for a new path out of"The new normal"dilemma?

　　林毅夫：或许柳暗花明又一村。是否能走出“新常态”的困境，我认为是有可能的。

Justin yifu Lin:Perhaps away from her one more village.Can out of"The new normal"dilemma,I think is possible.

　　危机既然在发达国家同时发生，应采取全球反周期的“超越凯恩斯主义”措施，即全世界用积极的财政政策，投资于能消除增长瓶颈、短期能创造就业、中长期能够扩大提高增长潜力和竞争力的交通、能源基础设施、环境等方面的建设，以增加需求。如果规模足够大，其效果可以等同于过去单个国家在危机时实施货币贬值的效果，给发生危机的国家创造结构改革的空间。

Crisis since in developed countries occur at the same time,Should take global countercyclical"Beyond the Keynesian"measures,That is the world in a positive fiscal policy,Invest in can eliminate bottlenecks/Short-term can create employment/Long-term to expand improve growth potential and competitive traffic/Energy infrastructure/The construction of the environment, etc,In order to increase demand.If the scale is big enough,The effect can be equated to the past individual countries in the implementation of the crisis the effect of currency depreciation,To the crisis countries create structure reform of space.

　　《财经》：但一些学者担心，“寅吃卯粮”终究会被清算。

[financial]:But some experts worry about,"Deficit spending"Will ultimately be liquidated.

　　林毅夫：传统凯恩斯主义在西方经济学界受到很大质疑。当失业率高的时候，政府用积极财政政策“挖洞补洞”创造就业，这叫做凯恩斯主义积极财政政策。但政府债务会因此增加，将来要靠税收增加以偿还现在的债务。老百姓预期将来税收要增加，当前即使有就业有收入，为了平滑消费也要开始增加储蓄。政府积极财政政策导致公共负债不断增加，但是社会总需求并没有增加，危机依然走不出去。

Justin yifu Lin:Traditional Keynesian economic circle in the west by the great question.When the high rate of unemployment,The government is using active fiscal policy"Dug hole complement hole"Create employment,This is called Keynesian active fiscal policy.But the government debt will be increased,The future must depend on the tax increase to pay the debts of the now.People in the future is expected to increase taxes,The current even with employment have income,In order to smooth consumption will start to increase savings.The government positive fiscal policy led to increasing public debt,But the total social demand and did not increase,Crisis still go not to go out.

　　我提出“超越凯恩斯主义”，关键是怎么把公共债务用好，提高它的质量，短期创造需求、创造就业，从长期看不是“挖洞补洞”，而是用来消除一个国家增长瓶颈。这样，这种有效投资不仅短期创造就业、创造需求，从长期来看，生产力、生产率跟增长率也都会提高，政府税收就会增加。通过生产力、生产率、增长率提高所增加的税收偿债，老百姓负担就不会增加，政府才能创造就业、创造家庭收入，老百姓才敢花钱，各种需求因而增加。

I suggested"Beyond the Keynesian",The key is how to use public debt,To improve the quality of it,Short-term create demand/Create employment,In the long run is not"Dug hole complement hole",But to eliminate a country bottlenecks.this,The effective investment not only short-term to create jobs/Create demand,In the long run,productivity/Productivity and growth rate will increase,The government tax revenue will increase.Through the productivity/productivity/To improve the growth rate increased tax debt service,People will not increase the burden,The government can create employment/Create family income,Common people to spend money,All kinds of demand and increase.

　　《财经》：投资于那些交通、能源基础设施瓶颈、环境瓶颈的项目，是因为边际收益更高？

[financial]:Investment in those traffic/Energy infrastructure bottlenecks/Environmental bottleneck project,Because the marginal benefit higher?

　　林毅夫：是的，边际收益完全不一样。举个例子，纽约到华盛顿的铁路220英里，火车要走三个小时，如果是高铁的话一个小时就到了。从三个小时缩减到一小时，效率提高了不少。但和非洲一些落后国家没有铁路相比，同样建高铁，回报孰高孰低？

Justin yifu Lin:yes,Marginal benefit completely different.For example,New York to Washington's railway 220 miles,The train to go three hours,If it is high iron words a an hour was.From three hours reduced to an hour,Efficiency has been improved a bit.But and Africa some poor countries than no railroad,The same built high iron,Return is tall what is low?

　　《财经》：包括非洲在内的基础设施投资，将给全球经济增长带来怎样的贡献？

[financial]:Including Africa, the infrastructure investment,For the global economic growth will bring the contribution of how?

　　林毅夫：欧洲委员会估计，未来10年欧洲向基础设施投入约2.8万亿美元。美国土木工程师协会测算，美国在未来5年需要2.2万亿美元的基础设施投资。世界银行估计，发展中国家的基础设施投资需求约为每年1.5万亿美元。其他测算数据更高，仅印度在未来5年就需要1万亿美元，拉丁美洲到2030年的电力需求约为4300亿美元。亚洲开发银行估计，亚洲基础设施投资需求约为每年7500亿美元。

Justin yifu Lin:The European commission estimated,The next 10 years to Europe infrastructure spending about $2.8 trillion.The United States civil engineers association estimates,The United States in the next five years $2.2 trillion is needed infrastructure investment.The world bank estimates that,Developing countries infrastructure investment demand of about $1.5 trillion a year.Other measure data higher,Only India in the next five years will need to $1 trillion,Latin America in 2030 to power demand about $430 billion.The Asian development bank estimates,Asian infrastructure investment demand of about $750 billion a year.

　　麦肯锡公司预测，为应对持续投资不足，人口增长所带来的需求扩大、城市化的加速以及气候变化的影响，亚洲未来10年对基础设施项目的投资将达到8万亿美元。也就是说，投资发展中国家的基础设施，将会使发达国家和新兴经济体的过剩产能有了去处。

McKinsey &company prediction,In response to the continuous investment shortage,Population growth brought about by the expanding demand/The acceleration of urbanization and the effects of climate change,Asia over the next 10 years to infrastructure projects investment will reach $8 trillion.That is,Investment in the development of a country's infrastructure,Will make developed countries and emerging economies a place for excess capacity.

　　1947年，时任美国国务卿马歇尔提出了欧洲复兴计划，为“二战”后欧洲基础设施投资提供了物质保障，引领了欧洲的复苏。现在如果启动新的马歇尔计划，模拟测算表明，基础设施投资的相应增加会导致发展中国家的GDP增长7%，全球GDP增长2%。全球经济将从“新常态”走向“新新常态”，发展中国家在提高增长率的同时，发达国家将恢复稳健增长，从而为结构调整赢得时间和空间。

In 1947,,The American secretary of state Marshall proposed European recovery plan,for"World war ii"European infrastructure investment after provides the material guarantee,Led the recovery in Europe.Now if the startup new Marshall plan,Simulation calculation shows that,Infrastructure investment will increase in developing country's GDP growth of 7%,Global GDP growth of 2%.The global economy will from"The new normal"to"New normal",Developing countries in improving the growth rate at the same time,Developed countries will restore robust growth,Thus for structure adjustment to win time and space.

　　《财经》：不过，新马歇尔计划似乎应者寥寥？

[financial]:but,New Marshall plan seems to be a response?

　　林毅夫：2010年G20首尔峰会发布了“首尔共同增长发展共识”，九条措施中的第一条就是对发展中国家的基础设施投入。但是，当时主流意见认为，全球经济即将走出危机，所以就没有实际行动。那一年10月国际货币基金组织召开年会时，退出积极的财政政策成为潮流，我当时持保留态度，认为退出积极财政的时机未到，过早退出会使经济衰退重来。因此，更重要的是改善积极财政政策支出的质量，我很高兴看到2011年国际货币基金组织年会的建议和我2010年的主张相同。

Justin yifu Lin:2010 Seoul G20 summit issued"Seoul common growth of the consensus",The article first nine measures is to developing countries infrastructure investment.but,The mainstream opinion think,The global economy is out of the crisis,So there is no practical action.That year October the international monetary fund (imf) annual meeting held when,Exit the proactive fiscal policies become a trend,I was reserved,Think out active fiscal time not to,Premature exit will make the recession again.therefore,More important is to improve the quality of active fiscal policy expenditure,I'm glad to see the 2011 international monetary fund meeting of the advice and I 2010 claim the same.

　　《财经》：那么，资金何来？特别是投资非洲等地区，资金匮乏更成问题。

[financial]:so,Funds no?Especially investment Africa and other regions,Lack of money is more a problem.

　　林毅夫：发达国家可以用增发货币为财政赤字埋单，也可以用增发货币来支持基础设施的投资，后者的效果会远好于前者。另外，大量主权财富基金、养老基金等亟需找到回报率更高的项目。仅各主权财富基金在2008年底管理的金融资产估计高达3.2万亿美元，它们已经开始向发展中国家的基础项目投资。新兴市场私募股权投资协会估计，主权财富基金仅有18%的投资组合用于本国以外的新兴市场投资，其中只有小部分用于基础设施。

Justin yifu Lin:The developed countries can be used for additional currency bill fiscal deficit,Can also use additional money to support infrastructure investment,The latter effect will be much better than the former.In addition,A large number of sovereign wealth fund/Pension funds need to find a higher rate of return on the project.Only the sovereign wealth fund at the end of 2008 management of financial assets estimated as high as $3.2 trillion,They have began to developing countries foundation project investment.Emerging markets private equity investment association estimates,Sovereign wealth funds only 18% of investment combination for its outside of the emerging market investment,Of which only small used for infrastructure.

　　在当前的经济动荡中，许多曾经被视为安全诱人的投资机会失去了吸引力。过去养老基金一般投资于政府的公债跟资本市场，如今在“新常态”的背景下，公债跟资本市场都不可靠了，政府的公债风险也增加了，加上资本市场流动性过剩、利率降低的背景下，投资回报率非常低，风险也非常大，这都使得发展中国家的基础设施投资对长期投资者更有吸引力了。

In the current economic turmoil,Many have been regarded as safe inviting investment opportunities lost its appeal.The past pension funds generally invested in government bonds with capital market,Now in"The new normal"Under the background of,Bond with the capital markets are not reliable,Government bonds also increases the risk,Add capital market liquidity surplus/Under the background of interest rates lower,Rate of return on investment is very low,The risk is very big,All this makes the developing countries infrastructure investment on long-term investors more attractive.

　　从2008到现在，各成员给国际货币基金组织融资约有1.5万亿美元，加上专司基础设施投资的欧洲投资银行、亚洲开发银行、拉美开发银行、世界银行等机构助力，全球性的新马歇尔计划完全可行。

From 2008 to now,Members to the international monetary fund financing about 1.5 trillion dollars,Alongside infrastructure investment and the European investment bank/The Asian development bank/Latin American development bank/The world bank and other institutions booster,Global new Marshall plan completely feasible.

　　《财经》：有一家投资非洲的股权基金，到2010年对27个非洲项目投资5.4亿美元，而这些项目在2010年的总投资额不过36亿美元。这是否说明，非洲的市场容量有限？

[financial]:There is a investment African equity funds,To 2010 years to 27 Africa project investment of us $540 million,And these programs in 2010 but a total investment of us $3.6 billion.Does it mean,African market limited capacity?

　　林毅夫：短期内非洲市场当然无法取代欧美市场。美国经济总量约占全球四分之一，欧洲也占约四分之一，两者加起来就是全球经济总量的一半，而非洲经济总量只占5%。

Justin yifu Lin:In the short term the African market of course can't replace the European and American market.The United States economy accounts for about a quarter of global,Europe also accounts for about a quarter,Both add up to half of the global economy,While Africa economy accounts for only 5% of the total amount.

　　但从边际收益上看，非洲显然更多。如果非洲发展快起来，它对资本品、消费品的需求都可以增加，它所需要的资本品和消费品，正好是中国以及其他主要经济体可以提供的。现在美欧洲市场增长缓慢甚至萎缩，导致中国大陆等新兴经济体的生产过剩，若将手中过剩的资本、机器设备转移到非洲去，这也会给中国等新兴经济体提供丰富的机会。

But look from the marginal revenue,African obviously more.If the African development quick up,It to capital goods/Consumer demand can increase,It needs capital goods and consumer goods,Just is China and other major economies can offer.Now U.S. European market growth even atrophy,Lead to mainland China and other emerging economies of overproduction,If the hands of excess capital/Machinery and equipment transfer go to Africa,This would also give emerging economies such as China provide ample opportunity.

　

　贫穷国家新机遇 Poor countries new opportunities

　　《财经》：新马歇尔计划让人想起新农村建设。上世纪90年代中国大陆实行市场经济一段时间以后，因为潮涌现象的产生，开始出现产能过剩，你曾据此提出了启动大规模农村基础设施投资计划以消化过剩产能的对冲措施。

[financial]:New Marshall plan let a person think of new rural construction.The 1990 s China practice market economy after a period of time,Because the production of the phenomenon of quotas,Start to appear excess capacity,You have the paper puts forward the start large-scale rural infrastructure investment plans to digest excess capacity hedge measures.

　　林毅夫：是的，两者的道理完全一样，这是结构的差异。当你投资非洲和其他发展中国家以后，除了短期投资所创造的需求外，未来当地收入增加，对消费的需求会增加，对中国和其他国家的产品的需求也会增加，有利于产业升级。

Justin yifu Lin:yes,The reason exactly the same,This is the difference of structure.When you invest in Africa and other developing countries later,In addition to short-term investment have created the demand,The future local income increase,The consumption demand will increase,To China and other countries products demand will increase,Conducive to industrial upgrading.

　　《财经》：那么，产业转移又将沿着“雁行模式”在新兴市场展开？

[financial]:so,Industrial transfer and along"Echelon pattern"In the emerging market expansion?

　　林毅夫：这一波的产业转移，我更愿意称之为“领头龙模式”，它和“雁行模式”的道理相同，区别在于量的不同。

Justin yifu Lin:This wave of industrial transfer,I prefer to call it"Leading dragon pattern",It and"Echelon pattern"Truth the same,Difference between the different amount.

　　在过去20年间，中国出口产品构成发生了不小的变化。1990年，中国出口产品中，初级产品和化工品占33.7%，制成品占66.3%；2009年，前者缩水至11.5%，后者扩容至88.5%，印证了产业升级。2011年，中国人均GDP达到5400美元，已是中上等收入国家，相当于日本在上世纪60年代初、四小龙在80年代初，产业开始转移时的水平。

In the past 20 years,China's export product composition happens a lot of change.In 1990,,China's export products,Primary products and chemicals accounted for 33.7%,Manufactured goods accounted for 66.3%;In 2009,,The former shrunk to 11.5%,The latter flash to 88.5%,Confirm the industrial upgrading.In 2011,,China's per capita GDP reached $5400,Is medium to high income countries,Equivalent to Japan in the 1960 s/Tigers in the early 80 s,Industry began to transfer the level when the.

　　日本在上世纪60年代的制造业就业人数是970万，在80年代韩国是230万人，中国台湾地区不到200万人，新加坡只有50万人；如今中国大陆的制造业规模全球领先，产业工人估计在8500万至1亿人之间，所以当年的日本、韩国等经济体是“雁”，我们是“龙”。

Japan in the 1960 s the manufacturing employment is 9.7 million,In the 80 s South Korea is 2.3 million people,Chinese Taiwan area is less than 2 million people,Singapore has only 500000 people;Now China leading global manufacturing scale,Industrial workers estimate is that in 85 million to 100 million between them,So the Japanese/South Korea and other economies is"goose",We are"dragon".

　　非洲总人口约为10亿，制造业总就业人数却只有1000万左右。如果中国有10％的制造业岗位流向撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，“领头龙”现象足以使该地区制造业就业总人数翻两番。同样，巴西和印度出现产业升级，也会向其他工资水平较低的国家转移就业机会。

Africa's population is about 1 billion,Manufacturing total employment but only around 10 million.If 10% of China's manufacturing jobs to Africa south of the Sahara,"Leading dragon"Phenomenon enough to make the region manufacturing total employment to quadruple.The same,Brazil and India appear industrial upgrading,Also be disclosed to other countries with low wages transfer employment opportunity.

　　《财经》：制造业向劳动成本更低的区域转移，是“雁行模式”的精髓。但以中国大陆为例，改革开放前，同样是劳动成本很低，产业转移却没有发生，经济发展也很迟缓。

[financial]:Manufacturing to labor cost lower area transfer,is"Echelon pattern"Essence of.But in mainland China as an example,Before reform and opening up,Is also the labor cost is very low,Industrial transfer does not occur,Economic development is very slow.

　　林毅夫：这是一个好问题。结构的变迁，成功不多，失败却不少。

Justin yifu Lin:This is a good question.The development of the structure of the,Not much success,Failure is a lot.

　　我做的研究显示，从1950年到2008年的58年内，只有28个经济体的人均收入同美国的差距缩小了10%或者更多，其中只有12个经济体不是欧洲国家，也不是石油或者生产钻石的小国，这12个经济体大部分都在东亚。

I do research shows,From 1950 to 2008 years of 58 years,Only 28 economy's per capita income gap with the United States by 10% or more,Of which only 12 economies is not European countries,Also not oil or production small diamonds,This 12 most economies in east Asia.

　　上世纪五六十年代，结构主义经济学盛行，鼓励普遍以农业为基础、经济总量远远落后的发展中国家兴办与工业化国家一样的先进产业，即进口替代战略或赶超战略。这一思路固然目标远大，却犯下了违背比较优势的致命错误。

The s,Structuralism in economics,Encourage common in agriculture as the foundation/Total economic output lags behind in the development of the country and in industrialized countries of advanced industry,Namely import substitution strategy or surpassing strategy.This idea is ambitious,But committed against the comparative advantage of the fatal error.

　　由于这些产品在国际上不具备成本优势，难以在市场上有效竞争，这些国家的政府给大量亏损企业提供保护，减少其投资和运营成本，包括授予国内市场垄断权、压低利率水平、高估本国货币币值、控制原材料价格等，干预导致资金、外汇和原材料的普遍短缺。结果，政府不得不通过行政渠道给这些企业直接提供资源，包括社会主义国家实行的全国计划，以及其他发展中国家实行的信贷配给和投资、产业准入许可等。为便于实施，许多国家还依赖国有企业发展目标产业。

Because these products in the world do not have cost advantage,In the market competition to effectively,The governments in these countries to a large number of loss-making enterprises provide protection,Reduce the investment and operation cost,Including awarded monopolies in the domestic market/Down interest rates/Overvalued currency value/Control the prices of the raw materials, etc,Intervention funds to/Foreign exchange and raw material of common shortages.The results,The government has to through administrative channels for the enterprise directly provide resources,Including the socialist countries implement the national plan,And other developing countries implement credit rationing and investment/Industry access permission, etc.For ease of implementation,Many countries also rely on state-owned enterprise development goals industry.

　　保护政策还会产生其他成本，比如本国消费的产品组合不符合最有效率的选择；本国经济因为生产缺乏规模经济的少量产品，市场被分割，效率同样受损。保护政策还削弱了外国企业的竞争，鼓励有政治背景的人把持国内企业形成垄断寻租收益，增加投资和交易成本。

Protection policy will also produce other cost,Such as domestic consumption product portfolio is not in conformity with the most efficient choice;Its economy because of lack of economies of scale production of a small amount of product,Market is divided,Efficiency also damaged.Protection policy also weaken the foreign enterprise competition,Encourage political background take in charge of domestic enterprises to form monopoly rent income,Increase investment and transaction costs.

　　我在1998年出版的《中国的奇迹》一书中，详细论证了这一发展战略的形成和后来的扭曲：重工业优先发展战略，形成了扭曲价格的宏观政策环境、而以计划为基本手段的资源配置制度和没有自主权的微观经营制度，构成了不可分割的三位一体的传统经济体制。这也是发展经济学的“1.0版本”。

I published in 1998[China's miracle]book,Detailed demonstrates the development strategy formation and later distortion:Heavy industry priority development strategy,Formed a distorted price of the macroscopic policy environment/And to plan as the basic means of allocation of resources system and no autonomy microscopic management system,Form the integral trinity of traditional economic system.This is also the development economics"Version 1.0".

　　《财经》：市场与制度才是解决问题的良方？

[financial]:The market and the system is to solve the problem of the silver bullet?

　　林毅夫：市场主导没错，但市场绝非万能。所以，不能这么简单地思考问题。

Justin yifu Lin:Market leading right,But the market is not universal.so,Not so simple thinking.

　　在发展经济学“1.0版本”衰落之后，“华盛顿共识”兴起，即发展经济学“2.0版本”，强调以发达国家的市场制度做参照系，，通过休克疗法疗伤，发对政府干预市场。。

In development economics"Version 1.0"After the fall of the,"Washington consensus"rise,Namely development economics"Version 2.0",Emphasis on developed countries do market system frame of reference,,Through the shock therapy healing,Hair for government intervention in the market..

　　我经常会谈到一个有趣的例子：智利曾长期陷入中等收入国家陷井，智利人均收入相当于美国的30%—50%，上世纪70年代皮诺切特上台之后，推行“华盛顿共识”，但之后没能发展起新产业。智利人引以为荣的产业，比如制酒产业、三文鱼产业，基本上是在上世纪70年代以前政府大力推动发展的。

I often talks to an interesting example:Chile has long-term in middle-income countries traps,Chile per capita income corresponds to the American 30% - 50%,The 1970 s pinochet after he came into power,implementation"Washington consensus",But after failed to develop new industries.Chilean boast industry,Such as wine industry/Salmon industry,Is basically in the 1970 s the government vigorously promote the development.

　　上世纪90年代初以前，英特尔的电脑芯片大部分在中国台湾地区生产。英特尔为了分散化，准备在拉丁美洲找一个国家设厂，就看中了智利。但智利政府说，你来就来，跟我说干吗？英特尔说，几十亿、上百亿美元的投资，我要基础设施、港口保证，智利的产业主要是农业和矿业，人力资本结构不一样，你需要帮我配套。智利政府说那不行，市场必须是公平的，我不能去支持你一个产业。

Before the early 1990 s,Intel's computer chips in most of Chinese Taiwan area production.Intel in order to diversify,Prepare in Latin America find a national factories,It took a fancy to Chile.But the Chilean government said,You will come to,Told me why?Intel said,Billions of/Tens of billions of dollars of investment,I want to infrastructure/Port guarantee,Chilean industry is mainly agricultural and mining,Human capital structure is not the same,You need to help me to form a complete set.The Chilean government says that not line,The market must be fair,I can't go to support you an industry.

　　结果，哥斯达黎加接受了英特尔的条件，英特尔的投资就跑到那里去了。

The results,Costa rica accepted Intel's condition,Intel's investment and run to go there.

　　发展中国家如果不能够看到具有比较优势的产业是什么，并根据这些产业特性提供必要的基础设施，就会丧失发展机遇。

Developing countries if not able to see has comparative advantage industry is what,And according to the characteristics of the industry to provide the necessary infrastructure,Will lose opportunities for development.

　　今天回首发展经济学1.0版本和2.0版本的失败，正应了中国那句老话：淮南为橘，淮北为枳。

Today, looking back development economics version 1.0 and 2.0 version of the failure,Should be the Chinese old saying goes:Huainan for orange,Huaibei thunb for.

　　《财经》：后来东亚的成功，正是坚持比较优势理论的结果？

[financial]:Then the success of east Asia,It is adhere to the theory of comparative advantage results?

　　林毅夫：在18世纪以前，西方国家花了大约1400年才实现人均收入翻番；到19世纪以后，这个过程仅用了约70年；到20世纪，则只需要35年。增长加速如此迅猛，是因为工业革命以后，技术创新加速，以及农业社会向现代工业社会快速转型，各种生产要素从低附加值的产业向高附加值产业转移。

Justin yifu Lin:In the 18th century ago,Western countries spend about 1400 years to realize double per capita income;To the 19th century later,This process with only about 70 years;To 20 century,It only needs to 35 years.Growth accelerated so rapidly,Because after the industrial revolution,Technology innovation accelerated,And agricultural society to the modern industrial society rapid transformation,All kinds of factors of production from the low value-added industry to high value-added industrial transfer.

　　经济发展是一个连续性的结构变化的过程，这不仅包括工业、技术升级以及经济的多元化，还应包括就业结构变迁(劳动力从低生产率部门进入高生产率的部门)，以及“硬”(有形)的基础设施如道路、交通、港口等，和“软”(无形)的基础设施如法律、教育、金融等的不断完善。目前经济学研究已经耗费巨大精力去关注技术创新，但对同等重要的结构变化问题却关注不够。

Economic development is a continuous structure change process,This not only including industrial/Technology upgrade and economic diversification,It should include the employment structure change(Labor from low productivity departments enter high production department),and"hard"(tangible)Infrastructure such as roads/traffic/Port, etc,and"soft"(intangible)Infrastructure such as law/education/The continuous improvement of the financial, etc.Current economics research has vast amount of energy to focus on technology innovation,But for the same important structure change but not enough attention.

　　产业结构由要素禀赋结构内生决定。要素禀赋结构不断升级，资本从相对短缺变为相对丰富，劳动力从相对丰富变为相对短缺，产业升级和转移即开始加速进行。

The industrial structure by factor endowment structure endogenously determined.Factor endowment structure constantly upgrade,From the relative shortage of capital into relatively rich,Labor from relatively rich into a relative shortage,Industrial upgrade and transfer, it started to accelerating.

　　亚洲四小龙的工业发展用了不到40年时间，中国大陆的速度更快。发展经济学家们从中应该能发现成功追赶的秘密，即符合比较优势的出口替代战略，在坚持市场主导的基础上，政府负责在产业升级和多元化发展内在的协调问题、外部性补偿上多做文章，以降低交易费用。我称之为新结构经济学，也就是发展经济学的“3.0版本”。

Of the four small Asian dragons to industrial development has taken less than 40 years,Mainland China even faster.Development economists from which should be able to find the secret of success after,That is accord with the comparative advantage of export substitution strategy,Insist on the basis of the dominance of the market,The government is responsible for industrial upgrading and diversified development internal coordination problems/Externalities compensation on the make an issue of,In order to reduce transaction costs.I called the new structure economics,Also is the development of economics"Version 3.0".

　　《财经》：问题是，政府如何有效甄别比较优势和具备竞争力的产业？

[financial]:The problem is,The government how to effectively identify the comparative advantage and competitive industry?

　　林毅夫：新结构经济学提出了“增长甄别与因势利导框架”（Growth Identification Facilitation Framework），为政策制定者在帮助企业顺利进行技术创新、产业升级方面设计了一套按部就班的方法，主要分为六个步骤：

Justin yifu Lin:The new structure economics puts forward"Growth discrimination and improve the occasion framework"(Growth Identification Facilitation Framework),For policy makers in the help enterprise smoothly technology innovation/Industry upgrading design a set of step-by-step method,Mainly is divided into six steps:

　　一，找出参照模型。通常，作为参照模型的国家与本国有相似的要素禀赋结构，过去二三十年快速发展，被模仿产业的产品和服务在参照国已经成功生产超过20年。这类产业在参照国是夕阳产业，正好是本国的朝阳产业。

a,Find reference model.usually,As a reference model of the country and country have similar factor endowment structure,The rapid development of the past two hundred and thirty years,By imitating industry products and services in the reference countries have successfully production more than 20 years.This kind of industry in the kingdom with reference to the sunset industry,It is their own sunrise industries.

　　二，看是否已有国内民营企业自发地进入第一步选定的新产业。有则意味着企业已经识别出此产业具有比较优势，政府可以考虑优先发展这些产业，帮助企业发展和其他企业进入，排除基础设施的瓶颈限制，降低交易成本，使该产业迅速具备国内国际竞争力。

two,See if existing domestic private enterprises spontaneously enter the first step selected new industry.It means that the enterprise has identified this industry has comparative advantage,The government may consider giving priority to the development of the industry,Help enterprise development and other enterprises enter,Eliminate infrastructure bottleneck restriction,To reduce transaction costs,Make the industry rapidly with the domestic and international competitiveness.

　　三，若选定的产业对本国是全新的，政府可以吸引参照国的企业来投资，它们会有积极性利用当地廉价劳动力。政府要做的是解决外资企业投资的瓶颈障碍，同时采取便于国内私企进入这些行业的措施。

three,If the selected industries in domestic is new,The government can attract reference countries of the enterprise to invest,They will have aggressive use of local cheap Labour.The government should do is to solve the bottleneck of the foreign capital enterprise investment barriers,At the same time take facilitate domestic private companies in these industries measures.

　　四，由于技术进步的速度加快，有些新产业最近才出现，除了第一步已经选择的产业外，政府还应该关注国内企业的自发创新，发现具有市场潜力的创新时应该帮助先行企业解决在进一步发展上的各种障碍。

four,Because of technical progress speed,Some new industry recently appeared,In addition to the first step has chosen the industry,The government should also pay attention to domestic enterprises of the spontaneous innovation,Find a market potential of the innovation should be to help the enterprise to solve first in further development on the various obstacles.

　　五，针对发展中国家普遍基础设施较差、全国同步改善有难度的现实，设立工业园区进行局部改善，工业园区还有鼓励产业聚集的优越性。与同等发展程度国家的竞争优势是专业化，需要有产业集群。

five,According to the developing countries with poor infrastructure/The synchronous improve difficult reality,Industrial park set up local improvement,Industrial park and encourage the superiority of industry agglomeration.And the same development degree national competitive advantage is professional,Need to have industry cluster.

　　六，政府可对有比较优势产业的先行企业给予一定的补偿激励：可以是一段时间内的企业所得税豁免，或提供共同投资的资金，或获取外汇的优先权以进口关键设备，或优先获得金融服务。

six,The government of have comparative advantage industry leading enterprise offer certain compensation incentive:Can be a period of time inside of enterprise income tax exemption,Or provide mutual investment funds,Or get foreign exchange priority for the import of key equipment,Or priority for financial services.

　　通常而言，在市场大潮中起伏的企业是春江水暖鸭先知。但是，单个企业解决不了产业升级所必然产生的协调和外部性问题，政府在这方面具有优势。因此，政府之手的作用不可或缺，结构主义时期是过犹不及，华盛顿共识时期是不及犹过。

Generally speaking,In the tide of market and enterprise is chunjiang plumbing duck prophet.but,A single enterprise can not solve the industrial upgrade will be produce the coordination and the externality problem,The government in this aspect has the advantage.therefore,The hand of government role indispensable,Structure socialist period is Thursday,Washington consensus is less than a period of judah.

　　《财经》：包括撒哈拉以南的非洲国家在内的贫穷国家，将会在这一轮危机中获得难得的发展机遇？

[financial]:Include sub-saharan African countries in poor countries,Will this round crisis in a rare opportunities for development?

　　林毅夫：危机即转机。贫穷国家，包括自然资源丰富的发展中国家，除了确保资源财富得到妥善管理，还应把部分财富投入基础设施与人力资本，以促进这些国家向非资源产业部门的多元化转型，创造就业机会并实现包容性增长，从而把“资源诅咒”变成“资源祝福”。

Justin yifu Lin:Crisis namely transfer.Poor countries,Including abundant natural resources in the development of the country,In addition to ensure that resources are well managed wealth,Should also make some wealth into infrastructure and human capital,In order to promote the country to the resource sector diversified transformation,Create employment opportunities and realize the inclusiveness growth,And the"Resource curse"into"Resources blessing".

　

　国际货币体系改革路径 The international monetary system reform path

　　《财经》：之前你谈到了美元等货币作为全球储备货币，其一国货币和全球货币角色之间的冲突，是本轮金融危机的根源。即使通过新马歇尔计划力推全球共赢，但病根未除，同样的危机可能再度发生。

[financial]:Before you talked about currencies such as the dollar as a global reserve currency,One of their currencies and global currency role conflict between,This is the root of the financial crisis.Even through the new Marshall plan promoting global win-win,But not in addition to know the disease,The same crisis may happen again.

　　林毅夫：确实如此。布雷顿森林体系始于1944年，确定了各国货币对美元的汇率，而美元与黄金形成每盎司35美元的固定兑换价。该体系于1973年崩溃，黄金退出了国际货币体系的舞台。但无论在布雷顿森林体系崩溃之前还是之后，无论是固定汇率制还是浮动汇率制，只要一国货币继续充当国际货币的角色，作为货币储备国的本国利益和全球利益的冲突就继续存在。

Justin yifu Lin:indeed.The bretton woods system began in 1944,Determine the various countries' currencies against the us dollar exchange rate,The dollar and gold formation $35 per ounce of fixed exchange rate.The system collapse in 1973,Gold out of the international monetary system stage.But no matter in the breakdown of the bretton woods system before or after,Whether fixed or floating exchange rate system,As long as one country currency continue to act as the role of international currency,As a currency reserve countries its interests and global interests conflict will continue to exist.

　　布雷顿森林体系的崩溃原因，与本轮金融危机一样，根源在于美国：由于越南战争的财政需要和约翰逊总统的“伟大社会”计划带来的社会支出增长，美国的宏观经济政策明显转向扩张，赤字扩大，结果导致货币黄金储备在1968年遭遇投机性攻击。

The collapse of the bretton woods system causes,With this as the financial crisis,Roots in the United States:Because of the Vietnam war financial needs and President Johnson's"Great society"Plan to bring social spending growth,The United States macroeconomic policies to expand obviously,Deficit widened,The results lead to monetary gold reserve in 1968 encounter speculative attacks.

　　在数年波动之后，布雷顿森林体系崩溃。

In a few years after the fluctuation,The breakdown of the bretton woods system.

　　《财经》：正是看到了当前国际货币体系的缺陷，人民币国际化开始加速。多元储备货币体系似乎是一个较好的选择？

[financial]:It is to see the current international monetary system defects,RMB internationalization begins to accelerate.Multiple reserve currency system seems to be a good choice?

　　林毅夫：不，多元储备货币体系风险极大。从本质上来讲，这仍然是一国货币充当全球埋单者的角色。

Justin yifu Lin:Don't,Multiple reserve currency system risk greatly.From essentially,It is still a country currency act as global buried single person role.

　　多元储备货币体系如果能够稳定，需要国际储备货币国的经济结构没有重大缺陷。但美国、欧盟和日本，以及新兴经济体，哪个国家和地区不存在结构问题？只要结构问题存在，该国货币就一定会遭到投机性攻击。

Multiple reserve currency system if can stability,Need international reserve currency countries economic structure without major defects.But the United States/The European Union and Japan,And emerging economies,Which countries and regions does not exist structural problems?As long as the structural problems,The country's currency will be by speculative attacks.

　　去年欧债危机发生时，瑞士法郎和日元成为避险货币，大量热钱流入，这两种国际储备货币迅速升值。而新兴市场则在大量热钱流入之后，接着又大量流出。这种大量流入、流出，与国内经济环境和利率等基本面无关。例如巴西，就出现了资金的大量流入和流出的情形。

Last year the debt crisis occurs,Swiss francs and the yen become hedge currency,A large number of hot money inflows,These two kinds of international reserve currency rapid appreciation.While emerging market is in a large number of hot money inflow later,Then a large number of outflow.This massive inflow/outflow,With the domestic economic environment and interest rates not fundamentals.For example, Brazil,In a large number of capital inflow and outflow situation.

　　现行国际货币体系的另一个内在不稳定，在于国际投资者的“羊群效应”模式。共同基金、养老基金和对冲基金等会放大最初的波动，导致大规模资本流动以及汇率和利率的大幅度波动。安全资产的供需不平衡，可能通过“短期波动加剧、羊群效应以及主权债务挤兑”等多种途径影响全球金融稳定。

The current international monetary system of another inherent instability,In the international investors"Herd behavior"mode.Mutual funds/Pension funds and hedge funds will enlarge the initial fluctuations,Lead to large-scale capital flow and exchange rate and interest rate greatly fluctuation.Security of supply and demand unbalanced assets,May through the"Short-term fluctuation intensifies/Herd behavior and sovereign debt run"A variety of ways such as impact global financial stability.

　　《财经》：但作为国际货币储备国，会拥有铸币税收益。

[financial]:But as an international currency reserve kingdom,With mint tax income.

　　林毅夫：不能这样理解，铸币税的收益难抵汇率波动风险。目前，美元作为全球主要储备货币，每年铸币税收益在800至900亿美元。而铸币税只能由参与货币篮子的国家分享，未来如果美元、欧元、人民币三足鼎立，每方铸币税收益不过300亿美元。在资本账户开放的情况下，汇率大幅波动，资金大额进出的风险远远超过了铸币税收益。

Justin yifu Lin:Can't understand,Mint tax income difficult to exchange rate fluctuations risk.At present,The dollar being the world's main reserve currency,Every year mint tax income in 800 to $90 billion.And mint tax only by participate in currency basket countries share,The future if the dollar/euro/The yuan a situation of tripartite confrontation,Each party mint tax revenue but $30 billion.In the capital account open cases,Sharp exchange rate fluctuations,The large amount of money in and out of risk far more than the mint tax income.

　　《财经》：换言之，如果国际货币体系没改革，人民币国际化应暂缓或严控规模？

[financial]:In other words,If the international monetary system not reform,RMB internationalization should postpone or tight control of scale?

　　林毅夫：是的，而且要高筑墙，把洪水拦在坝外。考虑到上述风险，在凯恩斯当年“班柯”货币构想的基础上，我建议创立一种未来的国际货币，它拥有纸币的灵活性，足以随着世界经济的增长提供足够的流动性，同时又与黄金等商品相似，属于国家货币体系以外的货币。这种货币可以保持稳定的汇率，又不会造成金本位的通货紧缩趋势，我将之命名为“纸黄金”。

Justin yifu Lin:yes,But high fencing,The flood block in dam external.Considering the risk,In Keynesian the"Class ko"Based on the idea of currency,I suggest that creating a future international currency,It has the flexibility of notes,Enough with the world economic growth to provide enough liquidity,At the same time and gold similar commodities such as,Belong to the state monetary system outside of the currency.This money can keep stable exchange rate,And won't cause gold standard deflationary trend,I will be named for"Paper gold".

　　纸黄金如成为国际储备货币，将由一家国际中央银行根据国际协议规定发行。各国将同意，纸黄金可以用于所有产品、服务、大宗商品和证券的国际结算。纸黄金将在国际贸易中发挥价值储藏、交易中介以及会计标准的作用。

Paper gold if become an international reserve currency,From an international central bank issued according to the international agreement.Countries would be agreed to,Paper gold can be used for all products/service/Commodity and stock international settlement.Paper gold will play in international trade value storage/Trading intermediary and the role of accounting standards.

　　纸黄金的供给将严格遵守弗里德曼的K比例法则（或修订后的泰勒法则），其依据是对世界经济和资产交易增长的预测，K的确切数值由创始国际协议设立的独立专家委员会决定。

Paper gold supply will strictly abide by the friedman's K scaling law(Or revised Taylor rule),The basis is to the world economy and trade growth assets prediction,The exact numerical value K by founding international agreement established independent experts committee decided to.

　　纸黄金铸币税可以用于支付国际发行机构的运营成本，并用于支付全球公共品的生产。

Paper gold COINS tax can be used to pay international issue institutions operating cost,And used for the payment of the global public goods production.

　　各国可以保留本国货币，但必须与纸黄金建立固定汇率。汇率平价的调整需要得到国际货币机构的允许，而且只能在国际收支严重失衡的情况进行。

Countries can keep their currencies,But must and paper gold to establish a fixed exchange rate.Exchange rate parity adjustment need to get the permission of the international monetary institution,And can only be in the balance of payments imbalance of the.

　　纸黄金储备可与当前储备货币发行国的外汇储备、黄金、特别提款权和预先确定的一定数量的本国货币组合交换。各国可以使用以纸黄金为面值的资金冲销国际支付的失衡。

Paper gold reserves and the current reserve currency issuing countries of the foreign exchange reserve/gold/Special Drawing Rights and pre-defined a certain number of domestic currency exchange combination.Countries can use to paper gold for the face value of the fund trade international payment imbalances.

　　《财经》：3年半之前，中国人民银行行长周小川也曾提出改革国际货币体系构想，他谈到的是国际货币基金组织的“特别提款权”，这与你所说的纸黄金有何区别？

[financial]:3 and a half years before,The people's bank of China governor zhou xiaochuan also once put international monetary system reform ideas,He talked about the international monetary fund"Special Drawing Rights",This and you said paper gold have why to distinguish?

　　林毅夫：特别提款权是以储备货币国的货币为基础，所以，货币储备国的本国利益和全球利益的冲突会继续存在，根本矛盾仍然得不到解决。

Justin yifu Lin:Special Drawing Rights is a reserve currency in the currency of the country as the foundation,so,Currency reserve countries its interests and global interests conflict will continue to exist,Fundamental contradiction still are resolved.

　　《财经》：上世纪40年代，布雷顿森林体系构建之时，美国经济总量占到了全球一半，如今虽然缩水为四分之一弱，但仍对国际货币体系改革有颇大影响。欧盟经济总量占据了另一个四分之一，加上日本和中国，改革绝非易事。

[financial]:In the 1940 s,The bretton woods system of construction,The American economy accounted for half of the total amount,Now although shrink for a quarter of the weak,But still to the international monetary system reform have quite big influence.The eu economy accounted for another quarter,With Japan and China,Reform is not easy.

　　林毅夫：“新常态”下，汇率的大幅波动，资金的大进大出所造成的巨大风险，会让纸黄金争取到越来越多的支持。如果这一构想迟迟不能实现，等待我们的，将是一场又一场新危机。改革现行货币体系或将因此而水到渠成。

Justin yifu Lin:"The new normal"under,Exchange rate fluctuations,The big money into big caused by the huge risk,Will make paper gold get more and more support.If the idea can't realize,Waiting for our,Will be a and a new crisis.Reforming the current monetary system or will therefore and follow.