央视财经频道《交易时间》

Financial channel CCTV[Trading hours]

　　主持人：杨磊

The host:Yang lei

　　嘉 宾：屈宏斌 汇丰银行大中华区首席经济学家

Jia bin:QuHongBin HSBC bank chief economist in the greater China region

　　纽约股市休市两天后恢复交易

New York stock market closed two days later restore trading

　　主持人：屈宏斌给大家说说怎样看待纽约休市两天之后复开的一个交易情况呢？

The host:QuHongBin give us about how to look at the New York closed two days later after open a trading?

　　屈宏斌：应该说在美国飓风，不仅对人民的生活带来一些不便，同时对股市，似乎也带来了一些寒意。这些当然，除了这种天灾之外，我想可能市场也是对一些经济的外围的全球的一些经济的普遍的因素，还是有所担忧。我想这个也是反映在外围的市场，特别是在美国纽约市场休市两天之后，开盘是走低。这都反映一个持续的趋势。也就是说外围的，就是全球的经济，仍然处于这种需求不足的这么一个需求疲软的大的趋势下。这个趋势并没有由于第三个量化宽松政策，以及ECB的这种购买债券的这些新的政策取向，而因此得到一个根本的改观。

QuHongBin:Should say hurricane in the United States,Not only to the people's life bring some inconvenience,At the same time to the stock market,Seems to have brought some chill.This of course,In addition to this kind of natural disaster outside,I think maybe market also is to some economic peripheral global some economic common factors,Is a concern.I think this is also reflected in the peripheral market,Especially in the United States New York market closed two days later,Opening price is lower.All this reflects a sustained trend.That is peripheral,Is that the global economy,Still in the demand of such a weak demand big trends.This trend is not due to the third quantitative easing policy,And the ECB's this buy bonds of these new policy orientation,And therefore get a fundamental change.

　　这个含义就在于，不仅对于我们中国来讲，那么对于外围的这种未来的不确定性，我们应该还是要有一个心理准备的。

The meaning is,Not only for our Chinese speaking,So to the periphery of the future uncertainty,We should still want to have a mental preparation.

　　主持人：包括前两天，日本央行宣布扩大一个资产购买计划，日本股市也并没有一个好的反映反而下跌了。刚才公布了官方的一个PMI的数值，站到了控制线的上房，上周四我记得解读了PMI汇丰的一个初值，那么，再给我们解读一下10月份的一个终值，好吗？

The host:Including two days before,The bank of Japan announce expansion of an asset purchase plan,Japanese stock market also is not a good reflect it down.Has just announced the official a PMI value,Stood in line of the main rooms,On Thursday I remember reading the PMI HSBC's an initial value,so,Give us to interpret the October a final value,please?

　　屈宏斌：PMI终值回升经济企稳有所明确

QuHongBin:PMI final value picks up the economy stabilises is clear

　　屈宏斌：官方今天统计局的这种向好的数字，进一步印证了我们上一次解读的内容，前一段公布的汇丰的10月份的PMI的初值所隐含的信息。信息就是说中国的经济在经过了这个8、9个月这种快速的下滑之后了，实体经济特别是制造业，开始出现了企稳回升的苗头。

QuHongBin:The official statistics today this to good digital,Further proved the last time we were reading content,In the former period of HSBC's announced in October the initial value of PMI implied information.Information that is China's economy after the 8/Nine months after this rapid decline,The real economy especially manufacturing,Start to appear the stabilises resilience of the symptom.

　　今天的这个官方的PMI数字，显示这种苗头，是逐步明朗化。官方数据也不仅仅回升到了3个月的新高，同时也是重新回到50以上。说明包括大企业在内，尤其是大企业，已经快速进入到了一个扩张期。当然小企业，虽然说小企业分类指数，仍然在50以下。但是相对于过去两个月，都有持续的回暖的迹象。跟这个汇丰的初值所显示的这种趋势是比较吻合的。说明我们有足够的证据显示，我们的制造业经过了一个这种夏天的，特别是这个不确定性，或者说比较快速下降的夏天之后，我们进入冬天。但是，我们的制造业似乎出现了企稳回暖的迹象。

Today's the official PMI figures,Shows that the symptom,Is gradually clear.Official data also not only back up to 3 months of high,At the same time is also back more than 50.Instructions include large enterprise inside,Especially large enterprise,Has entered a rapid expansion stage.Of course small businesses,Although small business classification index,Still under 50.But compared with the past two months,All have continued warmer signs.With this HSBC's initial value shows this trend is more consistent.That we have enough evidence to show that,Our manufacturing after a this summer,Especially the uncertainty,Or is rapid decline after the summer,We enter the winter.but,Our manufacturing appeared to stabilising signs of warmer.

　　10月PMI数值为50.2升破景气线之上

October PMI numerical 50.2 litres JingQiXian break above

　　主持人：我记得在两个月以前，您曾经对目前的一个通缩的状态，包括对就业的形势，表示了一定担忧。那么，在刚才与嘉宾沟通的时候，他特别解读了目前这样一个PMI数据当中的一个亮点，就是就业数字的回暖，一个企稳的迹象。就此您怎么解读？

The host:I remember in two months ago,You have to present a state of deflation,Including the employment situation,Said a worry.so,In a moment ago and guests when communicating,He especially reading the present such a PMI data of a window,Employment figures is the milder,A signs of stabilising.How do you interpret this?

　　屈宏斌：我们也注意到这个数字，在最近两个月有出现回暖的苗头。但是，我们必须注意这些数字仍然低于，仍然在50以下。比如说汇丰的这种就业分类指数，已经连续八个月低于50以下。在2004年以来，我们公布这个指数，唯一的出现类型情况的只有2008年。也就意味着就业可能也许由于这种新订单的增加，由于前一段这种增加微调力度的，政策的这种逐步的显现，似乎对制造业就业，起到了一定稳定的作用。但是还是形势不容乐观。我们觉得还需要未来使就业出现一个相对的比较稳定的状况，巩固这种稳定的趋势，我们仍然需要制造业方面进一步的回暖。这种回暖，当然主要不可能指望外需，更多的是要指望政策微调力度的这种持续的加大，从而对内需产生一定的支持作用。

QuHongBin:We also pay attention to this number,In the last two months have appeared at the first hint of milder.but,We must pay attention to these Numbers are still below,Still under 50.Such as HSBC's this employment classification index,Have continuous eight months less than 50 the following.In the 2004 years since,We announce this index,The emergence of the only type of only 2008 years.It means that employment may perhaps because of this new order increase,Due to the increase in the former period adjustment dynamics,The policy of gradually appeared,Seems to manufacturing employment,Play a stabilizing effect.But the situation is not optimistic.We felt that we still need to make future employment the emergence of a relative relatively stable status,Consolidate the stable trend,We still need manufacturing aspects further milder.This milder,Of course could not count on overseas market demand,More is to expect policy fine-tuning dynamics this continuous increase,So as to produce certain domestic demand function of support.

　　屈宏斌：央行逆回购压低市场利率 维持相对宽松流动性

QuHongBin:The central bank reverse repurchase down market interest rates to maintain relatively loose liquidity

　　主持人：谈到了政策的微调，我们就关注到央行在当日的逆回购操作，也是创下了天量加起来3950亿。有市场人士认为，相当于一次降准了，您怎么来看？

The host:When it comes to the policy fine-tuning,We attention to central Banks in the inverse repurchase operation,Is also a day quantity added up to 395 billion.Some market experts think,Equivalent to a drop suffered,How do you come to see?

　　屈宏斌：我觉得在回顾过去的几个月，这种宏观政策、短期政策，为了稳增长，短期政策的一些操作的状况来讲，我个人认为，其实央行货币政策的加大微调力度的这部分做的是相对来说比较好的。

QuHongBin:I think in the review of the past few months,The macroscopic policy/Short-term policy,In order to increase stability,Short-term policy some operating condition terms,Personally, I think,In fact the central bank monetary policy adjustment strength increase this part of the do is relatively good.

　　虽然说，我们没有看到央行在进一降准，也没有降息，但是央行是通过这种逆回购的这种政策，实际上是保证了这种流动性逐步回升的一个势头。也就是9月份我们看到的，无论是贷款的余额的同比增长，还是M2的同比增长，都出现了较为明显的回升。14%到16%的一个流动性的增长，是完全可以支持一个较高的一个GDP的增长的。我想从货币政策方面来看，已经做得相对比较好的。下一步，我们进一步保持这种政策加大微调力度，着力点主要在财政政策方面。财政政策特别是我们在今年前8个月，仍然有1万亿的盈余，在目前实体经济处于比较萧条的情况下，我们的财政应该是为支持实体经济作出更大的贡献，和更大的积极，而不是追求一个盈余。

although,We didn't see the central bank in into a drop quasi,Also does not have to cut interest rates,But the central bank is through this reverse repurchase of this policy,In fact is to ensure the liquidity gradually picks up a momentum.Also is we see in September,Whether the loan balance year-on-year growth,Or M2 year-on-year growth,There were obvious picks up.14% to 16% of a liquidity growth,Is completely can support a higher a GDP growth.I want from monetary policy perspective,Have done relatively good.The next step,We further maintain this policy adjustment strength increase,The main focus in fiscal policy.Fiscal policy especially we in the first eight months,There are still 1 trillion surplus,In the present economic entity in comparison under the condition of depression,Our financial should be to support the real economy to make greater contribution,And more positive,Rather than the pursuit of a surplus.

　　实际上，在今年的年初的时候，我们定的全年目标，是一个8000亿的一个赤字，意味着我们在未来几个月，在增加民生领域的投入，以及在相应增加结构性减税的力度方面，还应该有空间、有必要，进一步充分利用这个空间。

In fact,In the beginning of this year,We will this year's goal,Is a 800 billion a deficit,Means that we in the next few months,Increase the people's livelihood in the field of investment,And in the corresponding increase structural tax enforcement,Also there should be a space/It is necessary to,To make full use of the space.

　　主持人：大家都非常关注超万亿的这样一个财政税收的投入的方向，那么，刚才谈到了货币的市场，我们也关注到，近期就是人民币对美元的汇率，5天是触及涨停，人民币这样一个态势，是不是已经发生改变了吗？

The host:Everyone is very concerned about the super trillion such a financial tax input direction,so,Just talked about the currency market,We are also concerned about the,In the near future is the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar,5 day is touch harden,RMB such a situation,Whether it had changed?

　　屈宏斌：人民币我想，进入今年年初以来，进入一个我们所称的人民币的一个新的阶段，这个阶段相对于过去，出现了一个重大的改变。也就是这种趋势已经终结。从此以后，人民币会在一个维持币值相对稳定，但是，它的这种波动幅度，会进一步地增大。

QuHongBin:RMB I want to,Enter since the beginning of the year,Enter a what we call the yuan a new stage,This stage relative in the past,There was a significant change.Is this trend has end.From then on,RMB will maintain a relatively stable currency,but,It's this kind of fluctuation range,Will further increase.

　　我们在前半年所看到的是，人民币相对美元，波动在每周，或者是每个月都有较大的幅度。但是前上半年，有差不多接近1%的贬值，最近由于这种量化宽松的政策的推出，我们目前的国际融资像一些金融市场，包括中国在内的金融市场进一步的流入，可能资金流动的变化，可能对人民币的币值产生了一定的变化。

In the first half of the year we see is,The yuan against the dollar,Fluctuation in his weekly,Or is every month bigger amplitude.But in the first half before,There are almost close to 1% of the devaluation,Recently due to the quantitative easing policy introduced,Our current international financing like some financial market,The financial markets, including China, further inflows,The flow of funds may change,Might be in the value of its currency RMB produced certain change.

　　目前为止我认为还是维持一种，更大范围的波动的区间之内，我不认为人民币会从此走上一个持续升值的这么一个转变。我们觉得全年来讲，还是维持一个币值相对稳定，但是波动的幅度会更大的这么一个新的趋势。

So far I think or maintain a,A wide range of fluctuations in the interval,I don't think the yuan will from now on to a sustained rise of such a change.We think in terms of all the year round,Still maintain a relatively stable currency,But the width of fluctuation will be more such a new trend.