10月31日，周三。超级飓风桑迪吹袭美国东岸，金融中心纽约灾情严峻，美股停市两天之余，交通瘫痪电力中断，全市漆黑一片。

October 31,On Wednesday.Super hurricane sandy blowing the east coast,Financial center New York serious disaster,Beautiful strands of stop liang day more than the,Traffic tie-up power outages,The pitch black.

　　借用美国前国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德玄之又玄的金句，桑迪或与其威力相等的“科学怪风”（Franken storms）破坏力惊人，惟本质上却是known unknown（知其未知）。

Borrow former U.S. defense secretary Donald rumsfeld hard to comprehend gold sentence,Sandy or its power equal"Scientific blame the wind"(Franken storms)So destructive,But in essence is known unknown(Know the unknown).

　　超级飓风虽可怕，但其移动途径风力风速，可预测性皆接近百分之百，这就是known（可知）。无法肯定的是，当“科学怪风”正面来袭时，涌进灾区的潮水到底高1米、3米还是4米，这就是unknown（不可知）。

The hurricane is terrible,But the mobile way wind speed,Predictability is close to one hundred percent,This is known(known).Can't be sure,when"Scientific blame the wind"Positive struck the,Pour into the disaster area of the 1 m high tide/3 meters 4 meters or,This is unknown(unknown).

　　桑迪横扫美东，经济损失恐怕以百亿美元计，评论界自然想到，有必要从“科学怪风”身上汲取教训，为十级金融风暴再次降临未雨绸缪。这种“建议”，任何时候提出皆错不了；问题是，如何未雨绸缪？从监管当局的角度出发，提高银行资本水平，增强金融机构在危机发生时的缓冲能力，乃必不可少的预防措施。

Sandy sweep beautiful east,I'm afraid the economic loss in billions of dollars meter,Critics of nature,It is necessary to"Scientific blame the wind"Body learn your lesson,For ten level financial storm fell again save for a rainy day.this"Suggestions",Any time is not wrong is put forward;The problem is,How to take precautions?From the point of view of regulatory authorities,To improve the level of bank capital,Enhance financial institutions in a crisis of buffering capacity,But necessary preventive measures.

　　然而，这就好比飓风来袭时在门前堆放多不胜数的沙包，遇上桑迪级数的“科学怪风”，潮水如万马奔腾般淹至，再多的沙包亦阻不了财物损毁；银行资本水平不管多健全，一旦遇上金融海啸，资产价格狂泻不止，沙包顶不住潮水的情景便会在金融世界上演。平日不可一世的华尔街投行如高盛大摩，海啸期间为符合向美联储求助的资格，迫不得已变身银行控股公司，以接受央行监管换取紧急援助。这就足以说明，十级金融风暴就如桑迪一样的“科学怪风”，银行优化风险管理，不等于便能逢凶化吉。

however,It's like hurricane struck the pile up in front of numerous hacky-sack,In sandy series"Scientific blame the wind",The tide will follow if like to flooding,No amount of earthbags also drag the property damage;Bank capital level no matter how perfect,Once meet financial tsunami,Asset prices collapsed more than,Earthbags couldn't resist the scene of the tide will be in the financial world stage.On weekdays I not Wall Street investment Banks such as high grand friction,During the tsunami to accord with the federal reserve to help qualifications,Being forced to change bank holding company,To accept the supervision of the central bank in exchange for emergency aid.This is enough to explain,Ten level financial storm as sandy the same"Scientific blame the wind",Optimization of bank risk management,Is not equal to can fall on one's legs.

　　在这一点上，路透社著名财经博客Felix Salmon的见解值得一提。话说，纽约最早期的地标式建筑物，全都建于下曼克顿地势最高的位置。纽约证交所、纽约银行大厦、Woolworth Building、纽约大会堂，无一例外地矗立于百老汇一带离海较远的地区，安全性自然较有保障。以都市规划的语言来说，上述最早期的地标式建筑物，全皆位于纽约“C 区”（Zone C）。

At this point,Reuters famous financial blog Felix Salmon ideas worth mentioning.words,New York's most early landmark buildings,All built in the man's highest position's topography.The New York stock exchange/New York bank building/Woolworth Building/The great hall of New York,Without exception, stands in Broadway area far from the sea areas,Safety natural have safeguard relatively.With the urban planning for the language,The above the earliest landmark buildings,All are located in New York"Area C"(Zone C).

　　随着建筑技术突飞猛进，大厦越建越高，时至上世纪三十年代，新的地标式建筑物开始北移，但著名的摩天大楼如帝国商业中心、克莱斯勒大厦等，依然建于远离风暴潮影响所及范围。

Along with the construction technology by leaps and bounds,The higher the building built,When first century 30 s,A new landmark building started to move northward,But famous skyscrapers like empire business center/Chrysler building, etc,Still built in from the storm tide influence place and range.

　　此后数十年，纽约的摩天大楼不仅与天比高，而且越来越“科学”，建筑师有建筑师计数，精算师有精算师为财物承保筹谋。随着科技进步、保险产品“无微不至”，纽约人早期的避险意识渐趋薄弱，越来越多摩天大楼建于非常近海的位置，即市长彭博下令全面疏散的“A 区”（Zone A）。桑迪吹袭纽约期间，此区恍如泽国，位于西街200号的高盛总部，正正就处于Zone A。

After decades,New York's skyscrapers not only with day than high,And more and more"science",Architects have architect count,Actuaries have actuary for property underwriting plotting.Along with the progress of science and technology/Insurance products"meticulously",New York people early hedge consciousness gradually weak,More and more skyscrapers built in very offshore position,Is the mayor bloomberg ordered the evacuation of comprehensive"Area A"(Zone A).Sandy blowing during New York,This area ZeGuo entourage,Located in the west of the no. 200 Goldman sachs headquarters,Is is in the Zone A.

　　建筑技术、保险产品越完善，人的“原始”避险意识便越薄弱。今时今日，先进得多的现代摩天大楼，在飓风来袭时，比之上百年历史的“古老”建筑物更加危险。

Construction technology/Insurance products more perfect,people"original"Hedge consciousness then more weak.today,Much more advanced modern skyscrapers,In the hurricane struck the,Over more than one hundred years of history"ancient"Building more dangerous.

　　同理，防范金融危机，关键并非不断优化风险管理，而是尽可能远离险境，不要让灾难那么容易找上你！

By the same token,Preventing financial crisis,The key is not constantly optimize the risk management,But as far as possible away from danger,Don't let the disaster so easy to find you!