本报记者唐玮北京报道

Our reporter TangWei reports from Beijing

　　央行行长周小川、银监会主席尚福林、证监会主席郭树清、保监会主席项俊波，五大国有银行的董事长、三大政策性银行的当家人……当这些人聚集在一起，毫无疑问，定是一场“追星大会”。

Central bank governor zhou xiaochuan/CBRC chairman he/Securities regulatory commission chairman GuoShuQing/The China insurance regulatory commission chairman XiangJunBo,Five major state-owned Banks chairman of the board/Three policy Banks of the family...When the people gathered together,There is no doubt that,Set is a"Make track for a star assembly".

　　11月8日，十八大中央金融系统代表团的媒体开放活动上，星光闪耀，与会人员个个都聚精会神。在以往的任何一个会场，如果周小川中途起身，记者们必定会迅速反应，紧紧跟随着试图能让其对经济现状评点，哪怕是只言片语。更何况是群“星”汇聚的金融系统代表团，尽管会议召开地是庄严肃穆的人民大会堂西大厅，也挡不住满屋的记者们的“追星”热情。

On November 8th,Eighteen great central financial system delegation media open activities,star-studded,The participants all self-absorption.In the past any a venue,If zhou xiaochuan midway arose,Reporters will rapid reaction,Closely follow the trying to can make the economic situation commented,Even a few words.What is a group of"star"Gathering of financial system delegation,Although the meeting is the solemn of the west hall of the great hall of the people,Also can't stop the full house of reporters"Make track for a star"enthusiasm.

　　“金融改革”依然是当日讨论的关键词。周小川说，“改革”仍是金融业下个5年的关键词。具体而言，下一步要继续深化金融改革，加快推进利率和汇率的市场化，并逐步实现资本项目可兑换并加快民间金融机构的发展。

"Financial reform"Still is the discussion of key words.Zhou xiaochuan said,"reform"Financial industry is still the next 5 years of keywords.In particular,The next step will continue to deepen the financial reform,Accelerate the marketization of interest rate and exchange rate,And gradually make the RMB convertible under capital accounts and speed up the development of folk financial institutions.

　　而国家外汇局局长易纲否认了市场上有关人民币汇率浮动区间将会扩大以及央行即将放松政策的传言，并称“近来跨境资金流动正常，热钱流入风险可控”。

Yi gang, director of the state administration of foreign exchange and denied the market about the renminbi floating interval will expand and the central bank will relax policy rumors,said"The recent cross-border capital flow normal,Hot money inflow risks are controllable".

　　

大行的改革 Big done reform

　　“引领”重担 "lead"burden

　　“希望今天的问题宏观一点，比较集中一点。”作为政策制定机构的决策者的周小川，显然更愿意谈论宏观趋势，相比之下，他对于“人民币汇率走势”、“存款准备金率何时再降”，这类市场拘泥的微观问题并不乐于回答。

"Hope today's question macroscopic point,A bit more concentrated."As the policy mechanism of the decision maker's zhou xiaochuan,Obviously are more willing to talk about macro trend,Compared with,He is"The RMB exchange rate movements"/"The deposit reserve rate when drop",This kind of market constrained microscopic problem is not willing to answer.

　　周小川分析说，从外部经济形势看，国际金融危机对经济发展的影响尚难判断，欧洲主权债务危机的蔓延和美国债务悬崖问题进一步加大了全球经济发展的不确定性，而欧美各国近期启动的宽松货币政策究竟效果如何也有待观察。

Zhou xiaochuan analysis said,See from the external economic situation,The international financial crisis impact on economic development for it is difficult to judge,European sovereign debt crisis spread and the United States debt cliff problem further increased the global economy development of uncertainty,And Europe and the United States recently launched loose monetary policy what effect it remains to be seen how.

　　而正是因为全球金融危机目前有诸多不确定性，国内经济也存在着不足，他强调，下一步还要继续深化金融改革，加快推进利率和汇率的市场化。

And just because of the global financial crisis, there are many uncertainties,The domestic economy there are also insufficient,He stressed that,The next step will continue to deepen the financial reform,Accelerate the marketization of interest rate and exchange rate.

　　“新的领导班子就任后，首要任务是推行金融改革，预计未来3至5年，中国金融改革会加速，包括利率市场化加快、债券市场规模翻倍，以及人民币自由兑换。”汇丰银行大中华区首席经济学家屈宏斌分析说。

"After accede to the new leadership,Primary task is to implement financial reform,The expected future 3 to 5 years,China's financial reform will be accelerated,Including interest rate marketization speed up/Bond market scale doubled,And the yuan convertible."HSBC bank chief economist in the greater China region QuHongBin analysis said.

　　而周小川希望的是，渐进式推进利率市场化改革。利率市场化对银行的影响不言而喻，交行董事长胡怀邦也在11月8日的讨论会上表示，利率市场化将会使银行的净利差受到影响。

Zhou xiaochuan, the hope is,Gradual advance interest rate marketization reform.Interest rate marketization impact on Banks is self-evident,The chairman of the board in the HuHuaiBang also in November 8 conference said,Interest rate marketization will make bank's net profit difference affected.

　　不少评级机构并不看好中国银行(601988,股吧)机构，认为中资银行业正因地方政府融资平台、房地产业、供过于求行业这些因素而累积了较高信贷风险，但当日尚福林强调说，“平台贷风险没有进一步扩大，整体风险可控，给予一定时间逐步化解。”

A lot of rating agencies do not look good bank of China(601988,guba)institutions,Think that Chinese banking because of local government financing platform/Real estate industry/Supply exceeds demand industry these factors and cumulative high credit risk,But he stressed that day,"Platform credit risk no further expand,Overall risk controlled,Give a certain time gradually dissolve."

　　尚福林透露说，截至今年9月末，地方平台贷余额为9.25万亿元人民币，现金流全部及基本覆盖的占比达到97.3%，整体风险仍在可控之内。他进一步表示，目前官方正抓紧研究建立健全地方政府性债务管理制度。将严格控制地方政府新增债务，建立地方政府债务规模管理和风险预警机制，把地方政府债务收支逐步分类纳入预算管理。

He revealed,So far this year and the end of the month,Local platform credit balance is 9.25 trillion yuan RMB,Cash flow and the basic coverage of all reached 97.3%,Overall risk is still in the controlled within.He further said,The official is promptly establish and improve local government debt management system.The local government will strictly control new debt,Establish the local government debt scale management and risk warning mechanism,The local government debt payments gradually classification into the budget management.

　　“目前我国商业银行不良贷款率水平稳定在0.97%，明显低于世界1000家大银行3%的平均水平。”尚福林认为无需过分担忧不良率。

"At present our country commercial bank non-performing loans rate steady at 0.97% level,Markedly lower than the 1000 big bank average of 3%."He think without worrying about the defect rate.

　　具体到银行层面，工行行长杨凯生也称，工行四季度不良贷款额和不良贷款率预计将保持稳定，而净息差也不会有大的变化。

Specific to the bank level,Icbc President YangKaiSheng also called,Icbc four quarter bad loan specified amount and bad loans is expected to remain stable,And net spreads also won't have big changes.

　　中行行长李礼辉也表示，在经济增速放缓的背景下，贷款质量存在一些波动，但依然处在非常好的区间。由于经济正在企稳，明年可能进一步改善，贷款质量应该随之有所提高。

Bank of China governor LiLiHui also said,In the economic slowdown in the background,Loan quality has some fluctuation,But are still in very good interval.Because the economy is stabilises,Next year may further improve,Loan quality should then improved.

　　而大型银行的稳健至关重要，因为其也承担着利率市场化改革的引领重任。

And big Banks robust is very important,Because of its also bear the interest rate marketization reform leading task.

　　“大型银行具有较为明显的市场主导权，在利率市场化过程中能够发挥支柱性作用。中小银行大多数跟随大行进行浮动定价。”央行调查统计司司长盛松成就曾撰文指出，在下一步利率市场化改革中要重视发挥大行对市场利率的引领作用，中央银行可以通过对大型银行的窗口指导引导市场利率，最大限度地避免资金价格过度波动。也可以借鉴德国的“标准利率制”经验，由金融业同业组织相互协商，通过自律性管理确定合理的价格竞争区间，并向其成员机构建议。以防止金融机构间无序竞争，同时保护存款者利益。

"Big Banks have obvious market dominant right,In in the process of interest rate liberalization can play its role.Most small and medium-sized Banks with big bank for floating pricing."The central bank survey statistics of priests ChengSong achievements have pointed out that writing,In the next interest rate marketization reform must take seriously to play big bank to market interest rates leading role,The central bank may through the large bank window guidance guide market interest rates,The maximum price to avoid excessive volatility funds.Also can draw lessons from Germany"Standard interest rate system"experience,The financial industry trade organization mutual consultation,Through the self-discipline management the determination of reasonable price competition interval,And to its members agency advises.In order to prevent financial institutions room disordered competition,At the same time protect the interests of depositors.

　　

货币政策稳中求变 Monetary policy change in stability

　　而利率市场化改革也事关货币政策的转变。

And the interest rate marketization reform and also on the monetary policy change.

　　对于明年的宏观调控政策，周小川强调的是，在今年政策基础上保持一定的延续性，同时也会保持足够的针对性、灵活性。年底召开的中央经济工作会议会综合考虑国内外因素，最终确定明年宏观政策走向。

For next year's macro control policies,Zhou xiaochuan stressed the is,In this policy basis to keep a certain continuity,At the same time also will keep enough pertinence/flexibility.At the end of the central economic work parliament comprehensive consideration of factors at home and abroad,Final macro policy to next year.

　　他指出，三季度特别是9月份，经济呈现缓中趋稳的迹象，但由于美国财政悬崖问题逼近，而且欧元区主权债务危机依然持续，中国经济仍面临不确定性。综合考虑外部风险和眼下经济呈现改善迹象，明年中国很可能继续实施现行货币政策。

He pointed out that,Especially in the third quarter in September,Emerging economies slow in signs of stabilised,But because the United States financial cliff problem approximation,And the eurozone sovereign debt crisis still persist,China's economy still faces uncertainty.Comprehensive consideration of the external risk and improve the economic present signs,China next year is likely to continue to implement the current monetary policy.

　　易纲具体解释说，现在的政策是适当的，央行还会坚持实行稳健的货币政策。他还表示，金融危机之后的大规模信贷投放和过度投资现象不太可能重现，还是要发挥市场配置资源的基础性作用。

Yi specific explained,Now policy is appropriate,The central bank will also carry the steady monetary policy.He also said,After the financial crisis of the large-scale credit availability and excessive investment phenomenon is unlikely to reproduction,Still want to play to the basic role of the market in resource allocation.

　　方向稳定，但方式已经改变。自今年7月初，央行年内第二次下调基准利率之后，降息、降准手段便偃旗息鼓，而市场曾多次预计央行将下调存款准备金率以缓冲经济增长放缓的影响。严重之时几乎每周都有央行即将“降准”的传言，但传言始终未成真。而频繁的逆回购成了央行释放流动性的唯一手段。

Direction stability,But mode has changed.Since early July this year,The second year the central bank cut benchmark interest rate after,Cut interest rates/Drop quasi means and ends,And the market has repeatedly expected the central bank will cut deposit reserve ratio to buffer the influence of the economic slowdown.Serious almost every week to the central bank"Drop must"rumors,But rumours that never come true.And frequent reverse repurchase became the central bank liquidity release the only means.

　　11月5日-9日这一周有高达5330亿元的逆回购到期，央行仍然选择持续放量逆回购，并再次开展28天期逆回购，11月6日进行7天期与28天期逆回购共计达2770亿元，11月8日，央行又通过7天逆回购和14天逆回购分别注入650亿和800亿元流动性。

On November 5, - 9 this week have to be as high as 533 billion yuan reverse repurchase maturity,The central bank still choose continuous peatlands reverse repurchase,And again carry out 28 day period reverse repurchase,On November 6, 7 days period and 28 day period reverse repurchase a total of up to 277 billion yuan,On November 8th,The central bank and through the seven days reverse repurchase and 14 days reverse repurchase respectively in 65 billion and 80 billion yuan liquidity injection.

　　但频繁操作也并非毫无差错，10月16日，一向运作顺畅的市场操作，在当日上午出现了信息混乱，市场在“正”还是“逆”回购上纠结了近半个小时。

But frequent operation is not altogether without error,On October 16,,Always smooth operation of the market operation,In that day morning appeared information chaos,Market in"is"or"inverse"Repurchase on ravel for nearly half an hour.

　　而央行的调控方式必将愈发成熟，央行在最新公布的三季度货币政策报告中也强调“要增强公开市场操作引导货币市场利率的能力”。

And the central bank regulation mode will increasingly mature,The central bank announced in the latest of the third quarter monetary policy report also emphasized"To enhance open market operation guide monetary market interest rates ability".

　　这也就是央行坚持利率市场化改革的原因。德意志银行大中华区高级策略师刘立男认为，利率市场化改革就将重塑央行的货币政策架构。除此之外，未来几年还将改善货币传导机制和资本资源配置，将在国内的诸多市场，货币市场、债券市场、衍生品市场释放出巨大的发展潜力。

This is the central bank adhere to the market-oriented interest rate reform, the reason.Deutsche bank greater China region senior strategists LiuLiNan think,Interest rate marketization reform will reshape the central bank's monetary policy framework.In addition,The next few years will also improve the monetary transmission mechanism and capital allocation of resources,In the domestic market will be many,Money market/Bond market/Derivatives market release huge development potential.

　　东方证券证券分析师邵宇表示，从央行最新公布的三季度货币政策报告中可以看出，未来货币政策更加突出价格稳定目标，从关注货币供应量和新增贷款转向同时参考社会融资规模；从数量工具为主向利率等价格工具为主转型。

Oriental securities ShaoYu securities analysts said,From the central bank released the latest the third quarter monetary policy report can see,The future monetary policy more outstanding price stability target,From paying attention to money supply and new lending to at the same time reference social financing scale;Mainly from quantity tools to interest rates price tools give priority to transformation.