清剿“利率黑客”

Clearing out the"Rate hackers"

　　2012年秋，Libor(伦敦银行间同业拆放利率)丑闻发源地英国发毒誓说，要对几近崩溃的Libor实施改革，目标是使Libor更加透明可靠，还要做成石油和黄金等各种大宗商品定价指数改革的模板。虽然连英国央行高官都承认，“Libor市场成污水坑了”，但他们显然不想用“抽干法”一次性排污，而是用净化手段渐进性排污。

In autumn 2012,Libor(London inter-bank loan interest rates)Scandal origin Britain hair poison shi said,To near collapse Libor reform,The goal is to Libor more transparent and reliable,Also make oil and gold, etc. Various kinds of commodity price index reform template.Although even the British central bank officials have admitted,"Libor market into the sump",But they obviously don't want to use"Smoke dry"One-time drainage,But with the purification method progressive blowdown.

　　暂且不论这种净化能否顺顺如愿，我们关注的是，害Libor遭全球吐槽的污染源到底是什么？目前人民币的市场化和国际化双双提速，人民币基准利率定价市场正紧锣密鼓建设中。不幸的是，Libor曾是其主要参考蓝图之一；万幸的是，中国还没竣工。然而，若言来得及是需要条件的，中国还不完全具备。

Despite this purification can do without a hitch,Our concern is,Libor harm by global vomit tank pollution exactly is what?At present the RMB marketization and internationalization double speed,The benchmark interest rate pricing in the construction of market is intense.unfortunately,Libor was one of the main reference blueprint;fortunately,China hasn't finished.however,If you could say is the need of the condition,China has not completely have.

　　此次爆发于巴克莱银行的Libor丑闻，看上去是一次道德危机，因人为虚报利率价格引发全球性银行信用危机。为此有人倡议，要在银行业搞一场文化革命。但实际上，无良者之所以能一举搅浑全球，Libor价格形成机制的巨大漏洞助纣为虐。

The outbreak in the barclays bank Libor scandal,Look is a moral crisis,Due to human inflate interest rates price cause global bank credit crisis.Therefore some initiative,In banking have a cultural revolution.But in fact,No one person can at one fell swoop roil global,Libor price forming mechanism of the huge holes help a tyrant to do evil.

　　首先，Libor的价格不是经公开交易形成的真实价格，而是由几家指定的参考银行，在规定时间内同时虚拟报价，再根据这些报价算出虚拟的平均价格，即Libor利率。而且，整个过程都是在英国银行业协会的暗箱中操作，没有第三方监控。然而，这种虚拟报价机制只是制度漏洞，上升不到病毒级灾难。

First of all,Libor price is not the formation of publicly traded the real price,But by several designated reference bank,Within the prescribed time and virtual quotation,Then according to the quotation calculate the average price of virtual,Namely Libor rates.and,The whole process is in the UK banking association in the camera obscura operation,No third party monitoring.however,This virtual price mechanism just system vulnerability,Rise less than virus level disaster.

　　制造病毒的是英格兰银行。作为英国的中央银行，它不仅没有对制度漏洞加强监控，反而为了缓和后危机时代的银行流动性紧张，降低对问题金融机构实施救援的成本，暗示巴克莱银行操纵了Libor定价。带着“病毒”价格的Libor，沿着国际定价市场神经网络般的渠道，迅速传播到全球。

Manufacturing virus is the bank of England.As Britain's central bank,It not only to strengthen monitoring system vulnerability,But in order to alleviate the crisis era after the bank liquidity nervous,To reduce the cost of financial institutions to implement the rescue,Suggest that barclays bank control the Libor pricing.with"virus"The price of Libor,Along the international pricing market neural network of channel,Quickly spread around the world.

　　这种“超级利率病毒”，不仅影响了家门口的伦敦同业拆放市场，还污染了新加坡(Sibor)、纽约(Nibor)、香港(Hibor)等重要市场，包括中国对外筹资成本利率。在绑架了全球数以百万亿的证券和贷款后，英国人在“银行大院”秘密挖的水坑，借着互联网构建起的全球金融一体化通道，竟演变为发烧级别的“黑客帝国”。

this"Super rate virus",Not only affects the doorstep London trade loan market,Also polluted the Singapore(Sibor)/New York(Nibor)/Hong Kong(Hibor)And other important market,Including China foreign financing cost rate.In the kidnapped global tens of 0.1 quadrillion securities and after loan,In Britain"Bank compound"Secret dug in the puddle,Through the Internet construct global financial integration channel,But evolution "for the other"matrix".

　　就是这样一个危险的制度漏洞，如今已经被移植到了中国。当前，中国上海银行间同业拆借利率（SHibor）就是按照Libor原理建立的：同样是指定十几家金融机构，基于虚拟报价而非实际成交价格算出平均利率，生成Shibor价格；同样是在银行间市场体系暗箱操作，没有公开透明的第三方监控。

Is such a dangerous system vulnerability,Now be transplanted to China.The current,Shanghai, China interbank loan interest rates(SHibor)According to the principle of Libor is established:Is also designated dozens of financial institutions,Based on virtual price rather than the actual transaction price calculate average interest rate,Generation Shibor price;The same is in the interbank market system black case work,Has not publicly transparent third party monitoring.

　　所幸，学生没毕业就发现老师错了。但是，在中国这样一个银行独大的金融环境里，尤其是银行间债券市场如日中天、交易所债券市场萎靡不振的格局下，要想改变现有的Shibor价格生成机制，未见得比英国彻底改革Libor更容易。

fortunately,The students didn't graduate is found that the teacher was wrong.but,In a country as the only big bank financial environment,Especially market of the bond between the bank adoration/Exchange the bond market flagging pattern,If you want to change the existing Shibor price formation mechanism,Did not see than British revolutionized Libor more easily.

　　首先，起码英国已经充分认识到Libor栽在不透明上了，这回非改不可。而中国刚刚像得到法宝一样建立起这个舶来制度。其次，英国是成熟的金融市场，而中国金融市场的市场化进程尚未完成，无论是从市场资源配置，还是金融工具创新，都无法与成熟金融市场相比。有观点认为，此番重构Libor对中国是个机遇。但是，这个机遇不再是中国擅长的摸着石头过河，而是要拼精准且高速到达率，拼制度层面的公开和透明。

First of all,At least Britain has fully realize Libor planted in opaque on,This time the change do not.While China has just like a magic weapon for the same set up this stimulated the system.secondly,Britain is a mature financial market,China's financial market and the marketing process is not yet finished,Whether from the market allocation of resources,Or a financial tool innovation,Can mature financial markets and compared.With a view,This "Libor reconstruction in China is a opportunity.but,This opportunity is no longer Chinese are good at crossing the river by groping the stone,But to spell precision and high speed arrival rate,Spell system level open and transparent.

　　经过一个夏天的激辩，英国拿出一个看似可操作的方案：Libor将保留既定银行的每日报价制度，但Libor价格的制定机构不再是英国银行家协会，而是由一个完全独立且受到监管的机构担当。此项改革不仅拿出了方案，而且确定了牵头人，她就是英国财务报告理事会(Financial Reporting Council)主席豪格(Hogg)夫人。

After a summer of excitation debate,British took out a seemingly workable scheme:Libor will retain established bank daily quotation system,But Libor price formulation mechanism is no longer British bankers association,But by a completely independent and regulated institutions bear.The reform not only out of the scheme,And make sure the champion,She is the FRC(Financial Reporting Council), chairman of the(Hogg)lady.

　　Libor改革是否真能彻底，我们侧目以待。关键是，包袱更轻的中国怎么接招？

Libor reform whether really could thoroughly,We need to wait for.Key is,Burden lighter China how to take that?

　　资本流入潮再次来袭 Capital inflows incoming tide again

　　10月23日，有消息称，香港金融管理局再次出手干预汇市，于当日买入8.55亿美元，向银行体系注入约66.2亿港元。这是香港金管局近期第二次出手干预汇市的操作。此前的10月20日，香港金管局在强方兑换保证水平(即1美元兑7.75港元)时买入6.03亿美元，以维持港元汇率稳定。

On October 23,,A source says,Hong Kong monetary authority again shot intervention,In that day to buy $855 million,Into the banking system to approximately hk $6.62 billion.This is Hong Kong the hkma recent second shots intervention operation.Previous October 20,,Hong Kong the hkma in strong party exchange guarantee level(That is one dollar to 7.75 Hong Kong dollar)When buying $603 million,In order to maintain Hong Kong dollar exchange rate stability.

　　与此同时，中国国家外汇局发布公告显示，2012年9月，中国金融机构外汇占款结束了7、8两个月的负增长态势，再次出现正增长。9月末257707.62亿元的金额，较8月末新增1306.79亿元（这一数据是今年以来外汇占款月度增加的次高数据，高点是今年1月份的1409亿元）。

meanwhile,China's state administration of foreign exchange issued display,In September of 2012,China's financial institutions funding of foreign exchange over 7/8 two months of negative growth situation,Appear again positive growth.Late September 25.770762 trillion yuan amount,A late August increased by 130.679 billion yuan(This data is since this year the foreign exchange monthly increase funding of the second-highest tally of data,High this year is January 140.9 billion yuan).

　　从各方面的分析看，上述动作和数据与资金流入香港和内地相关，也就是由于资本流向“从净流出转为净流入”所致。

From all aspects of analysis to see,The action and data and capital flows into the Hong Kong and the mainland related,Also is the capital flow"From the net outflow into a net inflow"Caused by.

　　这一资本流向的逆转，与欧美QE(量化宽松政策)密切相关。

The capital flow reversal,And Europe and the United States QE(Quantitative easing policy)Closely related to.

　　由于美联储出台了无限量的量化宽松政策以及全球经济出现企稳迹象，资本离开美元而转向其他货币或以其他货币计价的资产，香港开始面临规模较大的资本流入，这也导致了港币触碰到联系汇率区间的上限。

Because the fed issued an unlimited amount of quantitative easing policy and the global economy appeared signs of stabilising,Capital leave dollars and turn to other currency or other currency assets,Hong Kong began to face large capital inflows,It also led to the hk touch the linked exchange rate limit interval.

　　以美元计价和结算的大宗商品价格上涨预期弱化甚至下跌是资本流向逆转的重要前提条件。

Priced in dollars and settlement commodity prices expected weakening or even fall is the capital flow reversals of the important premise condition.

　　如果大宗商品价格上涨预期强烈，全球资本都会兑换美元去购买大宗商品期货，美元不仅不会贬值，反而会升值。

If commodity prices expected strongly,Global capital will exchange us dollars to buy commodities futures,Dollars not only will not be depreciated,It will rise.

　　所以，导致美元资本流向其他货币资产的重要原因实际应当是两个：其一，美元在QE作用下出现贬值预期；其二，大宗商品价格上涨预期受到抑制。

so,To cause the dollar to capital flows to other monetary assets the important reason for the actual should be two:one,Dollars in under the action of QE appear depreciation expected;The second,Commodity prices expected is restrained.

　　近期，大宗商品市场上的主导“音调”是全球经济衰退风险增加，中国经济增速减缓，大宗商品需求减少，所以不难理解近期为何石油及铜等商品价格高位回落，“抽疯”般地大起大落。而这，正使得资本流动发生十分关键的变化。

recent,Commodity market leading"tones"Is the world economic risks have increased,China's economic growth slowed,Reduce the demand for commodities,So it is not difficult to understand why the recent oil and copper and so on commodity price highs,"Smoke crazy"Dramatic ups and downs as.And this,Is that capital flows happen very key change.

　　这样的资本流向是否可以持续？

This capital flow whether it can be sustained?

　　回答这个问题首先要看大宗商品价格是否重新产生上涨预期，其次要看美国是否允许资本出逃的情况长期存在以及美国采取的相应政策。

To answer this question first to see if commodity prices to produce rising expectations,Secondly to see whether the United States allow capital escaping situation existing for a long time and the corresponding policy.

　　还需关注的是，资本流向中国势必使得人民币面临上升压力。

Still need to pay attention to is,Capital to China will inevitably make RMB face rising pressure.

　　若要抑制升值，中国人民银行必须放宽货币。

If want to suppress appreciation,The people's bank of China must be easing monetary.

　　不过，事实证明中国人民银行并未有如此动作，反而大幅放任人民币汇率波动。这样做的一个重要初衷或是寻求国内货币政策更多的独立性。

but,Facts have proved that the people's bank of China did not have such action,But greatly laissez faire RMB exchange rate fluctuations.Do an important original intention or seek domestic monetary policy more independence.

　　但是，放任汇率变动是否真能获得货币政策的独立性？

but,Let's exchange rate fluctuation whether can obtain the independence of monetary policy?

　　在全球经济一体化、产业全球化分工已经完成的背景下，答案或许是否定的。刚性商品购买与刚性升值压力的存在，已经破坏了“三元悖论”的原理。

In the global economic integration/Industry globalization division under the background of has been completed,The answer may be negative.Rigid goods buying and rigid appreciation of the existence of pressure,Has destroyed"Ternary paradox"principle.

　　当然，人民币升值也可以变坏事为好事，那就是趁此之机“大规模资本利用”。这就是说，当美国人通过QE打劫中国资本的时候，我们可反过来利用优势，吸引国际资本流入，把它引向我们想要的方向，使之为中国经济增长方式转变、经济结构调整服务。

Of course,The appreciation of the renminbi can also become bad thing for good,That is the advantage of this machine"Large-scale capital utilization".This means that,When americans through the QE loot Chinese capital,We can in turn use of advantage,Attract international capital inflow,Put it to what we want direction,The change in the pattern of economic growth in China/The economic structure adjustment service.

　　我们绝不能再用“池子”关死资本，而必须容忍资本投向中国资本市场，用便宜的资本对抗成本上升，用活跃的资本市场不断为企业修复财务报表，保住中国的经济活力。

We can never to use"pool"Shut up capital,But must tolerate capital to invest in China's capital market,Use cheap against the rise in the cost of capital,Use active capital markets continue to enterprise repair financial statements,Keep China's economic vitality.

　　经济政策的选择关键是“兴利除弊”。如果能够权衡好利弊，把握好节奏和力度，利弊可相互转化。

Economic policy choice is the key"Promote the beneficial and abolish the harmful".If can weigh the good advantages and disadvantages,Grasp the rhythm and strength,Advantages and disadvantages can change into each other.

　　（作者为中央电视台证券资讯频道执行总编辑兼首席新闻评论员）

(The author is CCTV securities information channel editor in chief executive and chief commentators)