聂伟柱

NieWeiZhu

　　周小川总结中国货币政策十大特点：

Zhou xiaochuan summarizing China's monetary policy ten characteristics:

　　● 经济转轨过程中存在过热冲动，始终强调防通胀；

Fox exist in the process of economic transition overheating impulse,Always emphasize against inflation;

　　● 货币政策多目标制，包括低通胀、经济增长、充分就业和国际收支平衡四个目标；

Monetary policy had more targeting,Including low inflation/Economic growth/Full employment and the balance of international payments four goals;

　　● 重视金融机构健康化，货币政策传导机制要使银行、企业、家庭充分响应政策信号；

Pay attention to financial institutions had health change,Monetary policy transmission mechanism will make bank/enterprise/Family fully response policy signal;

　　● 货币政策手段上向更加面向市场转变；

Fox monetary policy measures to a more market-oriented transformation;

　　● 准确把握汇率改革进程，先商业银行改革，使其面对汇改有正确选择；

- an accurate grasp of the exchange rate reform process,The first commercial bank reform,Make it face collect change have the correct choice;

　　● 双顺差格局下做好流动性对冲；

Fox double surplus pattern well liquidity hedge;

　　● 启动宏观审慎框架，丰富货币政策工具箱；

- start macroscopic prudent framework,Rich monetary policy tool box;

　　● 推进利率市场化进程；

Fox promoting interest rate marketization process;

　　● 应对危机反应快，力度足；

Fox coping with crisis response quickly,Strength enough;

　　● 泰勒规则，不断测算产出缺口、经济潜在增长能力等。

- Taylor rule,Continuously measuring output gap/Economic potential growth ability, etc.

　　在刚刚过去的两天时间里，中国人民银行行长周小川分别在三个不同场合，就货币政策、金融改革等中国金融核心问题连续发声。一直颇为神秘的央行货币政策决策逻辑浮出水面。

In just the past two days,The people's bank of China governor zhou xiaochuan respectively in three different situations,Is monetary policy/Financial reform of China's financial problems such as core continuous voice.Has been rather mysterious of the central bank's monetary policy decision logic surface.

　　自新世纪以来，中国经济经历了一个黄金时期——持续多年的高增长，低通胀。这期间，中国不但承受住了亚洲金融危机的余波，而且安然度过了2008年全球金融危机的冲击，人民银行的货币调控，立下了汗马功劳。

From the new century,China's economy has experienced a golden age - growth for years,Low inflation.During this,China not only withstand the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis,And come through the 2008 the impact of the global financial crisis,People's bank's monetary control,The collapse of war exploits.

　　在演讲中，周小川全面总结了新世纪以来中国货币政策的十个特点。他认为，总体来讲，中国经济在转轨过程中普遍存在过热冲动，通胀应放在突出位置来加以应对。

In the speech,,Zhou xiaochuan comprehensively summarized the new century China's monetary policy ten characteristics.He thinks,Generally speaking,China's economy in transition process prevalent overheating impulse,Inflation in the outstanding position should be dealt with.

　　货币政策多目标 Monetary policy target

　　一般而言，西方发达国家货币政策往往采取单一目标制，即以调控通货膨胀为唯一目标。而中国货币政策则是多目标制，即经济增长、物价水平、就业状况和国际收支平衡四个目标。而这种货币政策多目标制恰恰是中国货币政策特点之一。

Generally speaking,The western developed country monetary policy often take a single targeting,That is to control inflation is the only goal.And China's currency policy is more targeting,That economic growth/Price level/Employment status and the balance of international payments four goals.And this kind of monetary policy more targeting just is one of China's monetary policy characteristics.

　　“有人认为多目标不好掌握。我们看，多目标还是有根据的。”11月17日，周小川在某论坛上表示，中国经济在转轨过程中，货币政策要保证经济指标健康，同时也必须推动改革开放。如果没有改革开放，货币政策传导机制也将始终处于不健全、不健康的状态。而改革的一个重要内容是价格改革，如果只关注通胀，任何价格改革容易遭到抵制。

"Some people think that multi-objective bad master.We see,Multiple target or the."On November 17,,Zhou xiaochuan said in a BBS,China's economy in transition process,Monetary policy to ensure the economic indicator of health,At the same time also must promote reform and opening up.If there is no reform and opening up,Monetary policy transmission mechanism will always is in not perfect/Not the state of the health.And one of the important reforms of reform is the price,If only concerned with inflation,Any price reform vulnerable to resist.

　　新世纪以来，中国持续面临的双顺差格局，导致了央行被动地进行货币投放，这对货币供应量和通胀都有影响。周小川也表示，双顺差会使货币供应量明显加大，带来流动性过剩，带来通胀压力。

Since the new century,China continues faced double surplus pattern,Led to the central bank passively for money issued,The money supply and inflation has influence.Zhou xiaochuan also said,Double surplus will make money supply increased obviously,Bring liquidity surplus,Bring inflation pressure.

　　事实上，化解双顺差对货币政策的扰动，已经成为制定货币政策最主要的出发点之一。周小川也称，央行货币政策首先要做好流动性对冲。

In fact,Defuse double surplus to monetary policy disturbance,Making monetary policy has become one of the main starting point.Zhou xiaochuan also called,The central bank's monetary policy must first do liquidity hedge.

　　“2003年，或者更准确些说，2002年下半年以来，持续、大量的国际收支顺差成为中国经济运行中的一个显著特征，并对中国的货币政策产生了重大影响。”央行货币政策司司长张晓慧曾在署名文章中称，国际收支顺差使人民银行不断被动购入外汇、吐出过量的人民币基础货币，并直接增加货币供应，从而形成流动性过剩的压力。为此，央行创新了央票，并且充分挖掘了存款准备金率等多种货币政策工具的潜力。

"In 2003,,Or some more accurate said,Since the latter half of 2002,continuous/A large number of international balance of payment surplus become China's economic operation of a significant feature,And to China's monetary policy has produced significant influence."The central bank's monetary policy department priests ZhangXiaoHui have been at the sign said in this paper,International balance of payment surplus make people's bank continuous passive buying foreign exchange/Spit out excess RMB base money,And directly increase the money supply,So as to form the pressure of excess liquidity.therefore,The central bank innovation central ticket,And fully exert the deposit reserve ratio and so on the many kinds of monetary policy tools potential.

　　以2006年至2010年11月期间为例，央行共开展公开市场操作约33万亿元，其中就发行了央行票据约20万亿元。统计还显示，自2003年9月至2011年2月，央行调整存款准备金率32次，其中上调28次，下调4次。这4次下调，是为了应对国际金融危机冲击。

In 2006 to 2010 during November as an example,The central bank in the open market operation a total of about 33 trillion yuan,Among them the central bank bills issued about 20 trillion yuan.Statistics also show,From September 2003 to February,The central bank adjusted the deposit reserve rate 32 times,The raised 28 times,Cut 4 times.This four cut,In order to cope with the international financial crisis impact.

　　而从实际效果看，尽管中国的M2（广义货币供应量）已经接近100万亿元的规模，但过去10年中国可以说通货膨胀一直控制得较好。

From the actual effect to see,Although China's M2(Broad money supply)Have close to 100 trillion yuan scale,But in the past 10 years in China say that inflation has been control more good.

　　“是药三分毒” "Is medicine 3 minutes poison"

　　与应对双顺差带来的流动性过剩一样，2008年金融危机爆发之后，执行宽松的货币政策以刺激经济，同样也是过去10年货币调控最大的特点之一。

And deal with double surplus as excess liquidity,After the 2008 financial crisis,Execute the loose monetary policy to stimulate the economy,Also in the past 10 years the largest one of monetary control characteristics.

　　“应对危机反应要快、力度充足。”周小川表示，2008年金融危机深化，宏观政策要果断，不能拖拖拉拉。中国在（2008年）11月上旬正式通过经济刺激计划，11月下旬就公布了。

"Coping with crisis response quickly/Strength enough."Zhou xiaochuan said,Deepening financial crisis in 2008,Macroscopic policy to be decisive,Cannot drag.In China(In 2008,)Early November formal through the economic stimulus plan,Published late November.

　　当时的中国经济严重依赖外需，在金融危机冲击下，经济增速应声下降。2008年，中国推出了巨额的经济刺激计划。货币政策也转为宽松，2009年新增人民币贷款规模高达9.6万亿元；M2增速达到27.7%的高位。

The Chinese economy is heavily dependent on overseas market demand,In the financial crisis impact,Economic growth decline answer.In 2008,,China launched a massive economic stimulus plan.Monetary policy is also to loose,In 2009 the newly added RMB loan scale is as high as 9.6 trillion yuan;M2 growth 27.7% high.

　　成功度过金融危机之后，中国的经济刺激计划逐渐淡出。总的来看，中国的经济刺激政策，使中国经济率先复苏，同时也提振了全球的信心，在全球得到了很明显的赞誉。

Success through after the financial crisis,China's economic stimulus plan gradually fade out.overall,China's economic stimulus policies,To make China's economy takes the lead in recovery,At the same time also boost the global faith,In the global got obvious praise.

　　在政策力度上，周小川也称，谁也不知道力度怎样合适，总体上力度大一点比小一点好，早一点抑制住，效果要好一些，这就是大家说的“出手要快，出拳要重”。

In the policy on strength,Zhou xiaochuan also called,Who also don't know how efforts,Overall strength a bit bigger than a little good,Earlier restrain,Effect better,This is what everyone said"Make moves faster,Throw a punch to heavy".

　　“我觉得中国在这方面做得还是很突出的。”周小川还称，但也要认识到，任何一种调控都不能是百利而无一害的。也可能有过冲，有超调，也会有震荡。选择适时退出正是因为“是药三分毒”。

"I think China in doing this kind of things is still very prominent."Zhou xiaochuan also said,But also to realize,Any kind of regulation can is of benefit to no harm.There might also be overshoot,Have overshoot,Also there will be shocks.Choose a timely exit just because"Is medicine 3 minutes poison".

　　回顾了过去10年的货币政策特点后的第二天（11月18日），周小川在“2012金融街论坛”上又以《宏观调控的经济描述与工程描述》为题，阐述宏观调控的理论依据。

Reviews the past 10 years of monetary policy after the characteristics of the next day(On November 18),Zhou xiaochuan in"2012 financial street BBS"And to[The macro adjustment and control of economy description and project description]issues,Expounds the theory basis of macroeconomic regulation and control.

　　所谓工程描述，是央行货币政策司、公开市场业务操作室等进行的日常操作，有点像工程师具体的操作；而经济描述则是央行乃至国务院对货币政策调控提出具体的目标和要求。

The so-called project description,Is the central bank's monetary policy department/Open market operation operating room and so on daily operation,A bit like engineer specific operation;And economic description is the central bank and the state council on monetary policy put forward specific goals and requirements.

　　经济描述和工程描述应该相适应。周小川称，如果经济描述过于笼统的，操作层面将认为这个意图不够清楚；如经济描述把优点都要了，副作用不想承担的话，工程方面就面临不可操作的困境。

Economic description and engineering description should adapt.Zhou xiaochuan said,If the economy description is too general,Operation level will think this intention is not clear enough;Such as economic description took the advantages to the,Side effects does not want to undertake the words,Engineering is facing not the plight of operation.

　　金改上下齐动 Gold up and down to move together

　　对于央行而言，货币政策、金融稳定是其两大主要职责，而金融稳定又与金融改革息息相关。一般来说，多数人都认为金融改革，只能是自上而下进行。原因在于，金融市场是一个非常活跃的市场，流动性很强，如果找一个局部，不管是局部的地方还是局部的产品进行改革的话，改革的外溢性很强。此外，如果进行一些试点的改革，会产生竞争的不公平。就是有的地方享受这个政策，有的地方享受那个政策，这个改革就会不公平。

For a central bank to be in,Monetary policy/Financial stability is the two big main responsibilities,And financial stability and financial reform is closely linked.Generally speaking,Most people think that financial reform,Only is from.Reason lies in,Financial market is a very active market,Liquidity strong,If find a local,Whether local place or local products to reform words,Reform of sex very strong spillover.In addition,If for some pilot reform,Will produce the unfair competition.Is some place to enjoy this policy,Some place to enjoy the policy,This reform will not fair.

　　在谈到中国金融改革时，周小川表示，实际上，中国实际发生的确实两种都有，既有一部分自上而下的，也有自下而上的。例如，汇率、利率的改革便是典型的自上而下的改革。

When talking about China's financial reforms,Zhou xiaochuan said,In fact,China's actual happen do both,Both part of the top-down,Also have bottom-up.For example,Exchange rate/The reform of the interest rate is the typical top-down reform.

　　“最近两三年，利率市场化的呼声进一步提高，利率市场化也是跟其他改革进程相关的。强调金融机构建立财务硬约束，这些改革都相互促进。”周小川表示，今年夏天，借助经济增长有所下滑，提出稳增长，进行利率政策调控时，进一步扩大了利率浮动区间。

"The last two or three years,Interest rate marketization call further improve,Interest rate marketization is also with other reform process related.Emphasis on financial institutions to establish financial hard constraint,These reforms are to promote each other."Zhou xiaochuan said,This summer,With the economic growth dropped,Steady growth is put forward,In the interest rate policy regulation,To further expand the range of floating interest rates.

　　“自下而上的改革，积极性还是很高的。”周小川表示，有些地方政府、金融机构，都要求进行改革试点。其中一个原因，就是它们感觉只有通过改革，才能巩固它们的经济发展，巩固它们的创新，巩固它们的社会稳定。

"Bottom of the reform,Enthusiasm is very high."Zhou xiaochuan said,Some local governments/Financial institutions,All requirements of the pilot reform.One of the reasons,Is that they feel it is only through reform,To consolidate their economic development,Consolidate their innovation,Consolidate their social stability.

　　周小川还表示，中国的东中西部经济发展不平衡，像中国这么大的国家，世界上很难给它提供非常成熟的经验。再有，有些改革影响很大，很不容易下决心。这种自下而上的金融改革，有多达10个地区正在进行。例如温州金融综合改革试验区、前海金融改革、浙江丽水农村金融改革试点等等。

Zhou xiaochuan also said,China's eastern, central and western economic development is not balanced,Such a big country like China,The world is hard to give it provides very mature experience.have,Some influence reform,Very not easy resolved.The bottom of the financial reform,As many as 10 area is on.For example, wenzhou financial comprehensive reform pilot area/Sea before financial reform/Zhejiang lishui rural financial reform pilot, etc.

　　周小川还称，改革是一种允许试错的过程，可以是做了试点，最后做错了，做错了吸取经验教训，有些东西取消了，有些东西修正了。

Zhou xiaochuan also said,Reform is a kind of allowed the process of trial and error,Can be done pilot,Finally do wrong,Do wrong to learn lessons,Some things is cancelled,Some things fixed.