每日经济新闻(博客,微博)实习记者 张茜 发自北京

Daily economic news(blog,Micro bo)Internship reporter Wilcox j from Beijing

　　美国当地时间9月13日，美联储推出第三轮量化宽松（QE3），此前一周欧洲央行宣布的新不限量购债计划被解读为“第三条量化宽松道路”，日本银行央行于8月19日宣布扩大量化宽松规模，在现行70万亿日元的基础上再增加10万亿日元。

The United States local time on September 13,The federal reserve launched the third round of quantitative easing(QE3),The previous week the European central bank announced new not set limit to buy debt plan was interpreted as"Article 3 the quantitative easing road",The bank of Japan the central bank announced on August 19, the expanding scale of quantitative easing,In the current 70 trillion yen adding 10 trillion yen.

　　中国人民银行该如何接棒此轮货币“放水”？全球三大经济体的中央银行集体开闸会对中国货币政策和实体经济产生何种影响？《每日经济新闻》记者就此主题专访了全球领先的信息和数据公司IHS高级经济学家任先芳。

The people's bank of China how to anchor the wheel currency"drain"?Three global economy's central bank collective breaking will of the monetary policy of China and entity economy produce what kind of impact?[Daily economic news]The reporter interviews with the theme of the world's leading information and data company IHS senior economist as first aromatic.

QE3对中国实体经济没有影响 QE3 on China's real economy has no effect

　　NBD：虽然高层争议不断，但一周之前美联储还是宣布推出QE3，这对中国的实体经济、金融市场和货币政策有什么影响？

NBD:Although senior dispute continuously,But a week before the fed or announced the launch of QE3,The China's real economy/Financial market and monetary policy have what effect?

　　任先芳：我们认为QE3对中国（实体）经济没有影响，因为它对美国经济也没有影响。QE3最大的负面影响体现在大宗商品价格上涨，正面作用体现在将住房（贷款）利率降低20个基点，影响很小。另外，美国住房市场贷款供应仍然偏紧，正负相抵，QE3对美国经济的影响很微弱。

As first aromatic:We think QE3 to China(entity)Economy have no effect on,Because it has no effect on the economy also.QE3 maximum negative influence embodied in commodity prices,Positive reflected in housing(loan)Interest rate cuts 20 basis points,Little impact.In addition,The United States housing market loan supply still partial tight,Positive and negative balance,The influence of QE3 on the U.S. economy is weak.

　　但QE3对金融市场和大宗商品有影响，对中国市场影响主要反映在对中国货币政策和汇率政策的影响：必须要在汇率稳定和价格稳定中二选一。我们预测在未来的一年，政策制定将优先考虑保证汇率平稳。

But QE3 on the financial markets and commodities have influence,To the Chinese market influence is mainly reflected in the monetary policy of China and the influence of the exchange rate policy:Must be in the exchange rate stability and price stability one of two things.We estimate that over the next year,Policy priority will be given to guarantee stable exchange rate.

　　QE3势必会增加人民币汇率升值的压力，进一步打压中国出口。为避免QE3对汇率造成冲击，央行的干预可能会加大。未来一年，人民币汇率可能再次回到与美元 “软挂钩”以保出口。虽然被动投放货币会加大通胀风险，但牺牲价格保增长是更可能的选项：很多工业品已经出现了通缩。加之出口锐减，政府不得不接受容忍范围之内的通胀。

QE3 will increase the pressure on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate,To further crack down on China's export.To avoid QE3 impact on exchange rate,The central bank intervention may increase.Next year,The exchange rate for the renminbi may once again return to against the dollar "Soft hook"In order to protect the export.Although passive on the currency would increase the risk of inflation,But sacrifice price the growth is more possible options:A lot of industrial products have appeared deflation.Together with sharp export,The government has to accept the tolerance range of inflation.

　　NBD：动准或动息，您认为央行会怎样应对QE3对中国货币体系带来的冲击？

NBD:Dynamic quasi or dynamic interest,Do you think the bank will be how to deal with QE3 of China's currency system the impact?

　　任先芳：少动最好。QE3之后整个货币政策要重新计算风险性。鉴于QE3释放的流动性，中国面临上调存款准备金率的压力。

As first aromatic:Less dynamic best.After QE3 the monetary policy to recalculate risk.In view of QE3 release liquidity,China faces the pressure to raise deposit reserve rate.

　　ECB（欧央行）可能会进一步降低利率，中国降息也有空间，但是保汇率可能会带来通胀风险，如果再降息，可能形成负利率。

ECB(The ECB)It may cut rates further,China cut interest rates and space,But the exchange rate may cause inflation risks,If again cut interest rates,Budget can be formed.

　短期和中长期风险叠加体现 Short-term and long-term risk stack reflect

　　NBD:“减速”和“危机”已成为今年论及中国经济时的高频词，您认为中国经济的风险主要在哪里？

NBD:"reduction"and"crisis"This year, China's economy has become of the high frequency words,Do you think China's economic risk mainly in where?

　　任先芳：最大的问题是中长期风险和短期风险交叠在一起集中体现。

As first aromatic:The biggest problem is that the risk of long-term and short-term risk overlap together embodiment.

　　中长期风险在于经济结构调整带来的结构性增长中枢的下滑，我们预测未来20年中国经济增速将保持在7%左右。

Long-term risk lies in the readjustment of the economic structure bring structural growth central glide,We predict the future 20 years China's economic growth will remain at around 7%.

　　短期的风险在于现在中国急速的去杠杆的过程以及外部经济环境的恶化。

Short-term risk lies in China now rapidly to lever process and the deterioration of the external economic environment.

　　此前两三年中国杠杆化的过程过快。到2011年年底，累计达五六十亿元的信贷里一半是在2009年到2011年期间发放的，这个贷款量比较超前。

After two or three years China lever process too fast.By the end of 2011,56 billion amounted to RMB credit of half the is in 2009 to 2011 during the issue,The lending is leading.

　　现在去杠杆的速度是近十年来最猛烈的一次。近年货币供应量M1同比增长一度触及40%，现在4%左右，M2同比增长一度达30%，现在不到14%。在内外压力交替之下，中国在主动、被动去杠杆，而且过程非常剧烈。

Now go to lever speed is nearly 10 years of the most violent one.In recent years, money supply M1 hit 40% year-on-year growth once,Now about 4%,M2 year-on-year growth was 30%,Now less than 14%.In the internal and external pressure under alternate,China in the initiative/Passive to leverage,And the process is very severe.

　　现在的挑战是能不能在去杠杆的过程中控制（经济增长）失速。

Now the challenge is can go to lever process control(Economic growth)stall.

　　同时，外部经济环境不确定性较大。出口下滑厉害有目共睹，此外，外围经济恶化、资本流入加速收缩导致M1、M2下降严重。也是股市下挫的部分原因。从2011年6月（美国）第二轮量化宽松结束后，外围风险厌恶情绪上升，资金就从新兴市场逃离。之后包括中国在内的新兴市场就开始失速。

At the same time,External economic environment greater uncertainty.Export downturn severe be obvious to all,In addition,Peripheral economic deterioration/Capital inflows to accelerate contraction M1/M2 down serious.The market fall is also part of the reason.From June 2011(The United States)After the end of the second round of quantitative easing,Peripheral risk aversion rise,Capital from emerging markets escape.After emerging markets, including China, began to stall.

　　NBD：近期，地方政府又喊出了一万亿的“铁工基”投资振兴计划，您如何评价？

NBD:recent,The local government and shouted out one trillion"Blacksmith base"Investment stimulus plan,How do you evaluate?

　　任先芳：我们估算今年地方政府推出的基础建设投资计划总额在10万亿元左右。但所谓“新一轮刺激计划”或许是一种错觉，其中可能一大半都是“十二五”计划的一部分。

As first aromatic:We estimate this year local government launched the infrastructure of the total investment plan in 10 trillion yuan.But the so-called"A new round of stimulus plan"Perhaps is a kind of illusion,More than half of which may is"1025"Part of the plan.

　　此轮计划反映地方政府的 （投资）意愿，他们愿意花多少钱，最终有多少项目能实现还是由金融市场拍板。从去年下半年到今年上半年，市场避险情绪蔓延，资金撤出。现在贷款增长率维持在16%的低位，银行惜贷明显，2009年高峰时期，信贷增速在30%左右。

This wheel plan reflect local government (investment)Intend to,They are willing to spend how many money,The number of the project can realize or the financial market clappers.From the second half of last year to the first half of this year,Market hedge mood spread,Funds out of.Now loan growth rate stays at 16% of the low,Bank arisen obvious,2009 peak period,Credit growth at around 30%.

　　NBD：您认为，大规模刺激计划和银行不良资产上升有没有联系？

NBD:Do you think,Massive stimulus plan and bad bank assets rise any contact?

　　任先芳：大规模的信贷狂欢之后所有银行资产都会恶化，中国应该也不例外，但目前仍未显现。按国际经验，资产肯定会受到损失，需要很多年来消化。

As first aromatic:The scale of the credit binge later all bank assets will be worse,China should is no exception,But at present still not appeared.According to the international experience,Assets will suffer a loss,Need a lot of years digestion.

　　1998年银行不良贷款达到近30%，现在中国银行(601988,股吧)业没有面临此种险境。2004年，主要银行资产负债表得到了清洗。我们现在还在享受2000年银行改革的红利，在这个前提下，现在的情况不会比1998年差。

1998 years of bad bank loans to nearly 30%,Now the bank of China(601988,guba)Industry not face the danger.In 2004,,Major Banks balance sheet got cleaning.We now enjoy 2000 bank reform bonus,In this premise,The situation is not poor in 1998.