施海

ShiHai

　　昨日，受宏观经济诸多利多因素作用以及外盘商品整体上涨的引导下，内盘商品联动走强，全日总成交量大幅净减164.3万余手至962.5万余手，持仓量小幅净增4.6万余手至1125.9万余手，盘面呈现期价上涨、成交量缩减、持仓量净增的偏强特征。

yesterday,By macroeconomic factors and many more than the outside dish goods under the guidance of the overall rise,Sell goods going strong linkage,Diurnal total volume sharply reduced net more than 1.643 million more than 9.625 million hand to hand,Position a net increase of more than 46000 small quantity of hand to hand more than 11.259 million,Disk present QiJia rise/Volume reduction/Position a net increase of amount of partial strong characteristics.

　　美国方面，财政悬崖即增税与减支两项政策叠加在一起，使政府财政状况面临崩溃。具体而言，就是小布什政府的税收优惠减免和奥巴马政府的薪资税减免、失业补偿措施延长以及“自动减赤机制”等措施即将到期，若两党未能达成共识，则美国将出现削减开支和增加税收的双重局面，全年税收将增加5320亿美元，政府开支将削减1360亿美元，由此导致财政支出曲线如同悬崖般大幅下滑，并严重拖累美国经济，对商品构成打压作用，但相对而言，美国财政悬崖危机可能性相对较小。

The United States,Financial cliff that tax increases and order two policy added together,Make the government finances collapsing.In particular,Is little bush government's preferential tax cuts and barack Obama government pay tax credit/Unemployment compensation measures and extend"Automatic minus red mechanism"Such measures as is about to expire,If the two parties fail to reach an agreement,America will appear to cut spending and raise taxes double situation,The tax will be increased by us $532 billion,Government spending will be cut by 136 billion dollars,Thus lead to financial expenditure curve as the cliff, a sharp decline,And a heavy drag on the U.S. economy,For goods that constitute a role,But relatively,The United States financial cliff crisis relatively small possibility.

　　欧元区方面，希腊国际债权人已就采取措施降低希腊债务基本达成共识，援希协议极有希望达成一致。在经历了前两周的马拉松会议后，欧元区财长们将再次聚首，商议希腊债务协议事宜。虽然目前欧元区各国财长及三驾马车尚未能就希腊援助资金发放达成协议，但市场对会议持乐观预期，由此对商品构成偏多作用。

In the euro area,The Greek international creditors have to take measures to reduce the Greek debt basic reach a consensus,Aid and agreement with great hope to reach an agreement.After the first two weeks of marathon after the meeting,The euro zone finance ministers will meet again,Counsel for the Greek debt agreement.Although at present the euro zone finance ministers and troika has not been able to Greek aid funds to issue to reach an agreement,But the market for meeting the optimistic expectations,This constitutes a partial for goods more action.

　　日本方面，日本央行11月26日公布半年度会议纪要，称将继续放宽货币政策，直至通胀率水平稳定在1.0%水平，由此将导致日元贬值，继而对以美元计价的大宗商品构成偏空影响。

Japan,The bank of Japan on November 26 announced semi-annual meeting minutes,Say will continue to relax monetary policy,Until inflation level stable at 1.0% level,This will lead to the weak yen,And then to of dollar-denominated commodities constitute a partial empty influence.

　　国内方面，明年中国经济增长目标是市场舆论关注焦点。据悉，2012年中央经济工作会议将于12月在北京召开，而市场关注的2013年中国GDP增速目标，或将设定为7.5%。从2012年至今走向来看，前三季度GDP增速已经达到7.7%，其中一季度增长8.1%，二季度增长7.6%，三季度增长7.4%。随着10月份以及四季度至今反弹走势，全年完成7.5%的增速目标已成定局，由此在宏观经济方面对国内商品构成利多作用。

Domestic aspects,Next year, China's economic growth target is market focus of public opinion.It is reported,In 2012, the central economic work conference will be held in Beijing in December,And market attention in 2013, the Chinese GDP growth target,Or will be set to 7.5%.From 2012 to now to see,The third quarter growth of GDP has reached 7.7%,The growth of 8.1% in the first quarter,The second quarter growth of 7.6%,The third quarter growth of 7.4%.As October and four quarter rebound trend today,The completed 7.5% of the growth target has become a foregone conclusion,Thus in the macroeconomic aspects of domestic commodity constitute the role.

　　汇丰银行22日发布报告，11月中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）初值为50.4，创13个月以来新高，重返50荣枯分界线以上。该指数低于50表明制造业活动较前月萎缩，高于50表明制造业活动扩张，说明国内经济初步进入扩张期。（作者为兴业期货高级研究员）

HSBC bank report released 22,November China manufacturing purchasing managers' index(PMI)Initial value is 50.4,Gen 13 months highs,Return to more than 50 vicissitude boundary.The index of less than 50 shows that manufacturing activity is less to be somewhat atrophy,Above 50 shows that manufacturing activity expansion,Explain the domestic economy preliminary into expansion stage.(The writer is senior fellow at industrial futures)