清华大学经济管理学院白重恩 Tsinghua university economic management academy BaiChongEn

　　和讯网消息 第四届张培刚发展经济学论坛于12月1日在北京举行，和讯网全程播报。清华大学经济管理学院白重恩教授发表主题演讲，他表示，让企业的分红用于社保，不仅增加企业市场压力，同时把收入从企业的可支配收入变成居民的可支配收入。

HeXunWang news the fourth ZhangPeiGang development economics BBS on December 1, held in Beijing,HeXunWang full report.Tsinghua university economic management academy professor BaiChongEn published theme speech,He said,Let the enterprise's share out bonus for social security,Not only increase the enterprise market pressure,At the same time, the revenue from enterprise's disposable income become residents' disposable income.

以下为文字实录： The following is a text memoir:

　　白重恩：今天很多专家都讲到了我们要转变经济发展方式，让经济的增长从投资驱动型向效益驱动型的转变，我非常同意这样的转变，但是我们怎么转变经济发展方式其实有很多不同政策抓手，有很多不同渠道，我今天想集中讲一个渠道，之所以选择这样的题目，也跟今天的奖有关，因为获奖跟工作有密切的关系。从增加居民可支配收入占比的角度看这样的措施，怎么能够帮助我们促进经济发展方式的转变。

BaiChongEn:Today many experts all speak to we must transform the pattern of economic development,Let the economic growth from investment drive type to benefit drive type transformation,I really agree with this transition,But how do we transformation of the mode of economic development in fact there are many different policy gripper,There are many different channels,Today I want to focus speak a channel,I chose this subject,With today's award relevant,Because the has a close relation with work.From the increase of residents' disposable income than point of view such measures,How can help us promote the changing of economy development mode.

　　我们都知道，过去4年我们经济增长很大程度上依赖于投资拉动，比如说过去4年中我们TFP增长的速度要比2007年之前20年的平均值下降了很多，大概下降了一半左右，而过去四年我们资本产出比确是以非常快的速度增长，每年大概5%的速度增长，在前面20几年都没有发生过。所以说如果转变经济发展方式是很迫切的话，我们可以看到过去4年的情况使得这样转变变得更加的迫切。

We all know that,Over the past four years we economic growth to a large extent dependent on investment pull,For the past four years we seen rapid TFP growth faster than before 2007 20 years of average dropped a lot,Probably dropped by about half,And over the past four years we capital output ratio is indeed a very fast speed growth,Every year about 5% of growth,In front of 20 years are not happened.So if the transformation of the mode of economic development is a urgent words,We can see the past four years of conditions have such change become more urgent.

　　怎么来实现这样的转变？我觉得在这里面投资是一个重要的方面，除了要降低投资占GDP的比重以外，还要促进投资的效率增长。我们刚才说到前面4年的增长很大程度上是由投资拉动、资本产出比增加的很快，同时我们也发现，投资的回报率有大幅度下降。这是我和同事一直在做这样的研究，我们用核算数据算投资回报率，调整了价格因素以后税后回报率，在93年的时候回报率15%以上，93年以后逐步下降，最近这几年下降的比较厉害，现在大概5.1%左右，这样的趋势确实是令人很担忧，使得我们降低投资增长速度需就更加强烈。

How to achieve such a change?I think in this inside investment is an important aspect,In addition to reduce investment accounts for of the proportion of GDP outside,To promote the efficiency of the investment growth.We just said to the front four years of growth is to a great extent by the investment pull/Capital output ratio is increasing quickly,At the same time, we also found,The rate of return on investment has dropped substantially.This is my colleagues and I have been doing this kind of research,We use accounting data calculate rate of return on investment,Adjusted the price factor later after-tax return,In 93, more than 15% rate of return,93 years later step down,In recent years down the better,Now about 5.1% or so,This trend is indeed a very worried,Make we reduce the investment growth rate should be more strong.

　　投资自然跟储蓄有关，储蓄高于投资就变成外贸顺差，我们知道外贸顺差过去几年占GDP的比重在不断地下降，因为我们在全球经济比重不断上升，所以维持外贸顺差越来越重要，所以不可能靠储蓄向国外投资消化，我们储蓄变成国内投资，要想控制国内投资的话，必须控制储蓄的增长速度。

Investment related natural and savings,Saving over investment becomes foreign trade surplus,We know that foreign trade surplus in the past few years the proportion of GDP in continually decline,Because we in the global economy rising proportion,So maintain foreign trade surplus is more and more important,So impossible by saving to foreign investment digestion,We savings into domestic investment,If you want to control word of domestic investment,Must control the rate of growth of savings.

　　储蓄增长这么快的原因是什么？我们做了简单分析，储蓄率增加的主要原因不是来自于居民，主要来自于企业和政府部门。这是得奖工作中的一些结论，如果我们肯居民的平均储蓄率的话，可以发现居民储蓄率相当平稳，我们刚才看到刚才储蓄率有非常高的增加，但是居民储蓄率没有非常大的增长，而政府部门的储蓄率有非常大的增加，政府部门大概有50%左右。同时我们看不同部门的储蓄占GDP的比重，政府和企业的比重在占GDP的比重在增加，居民没有增加。为了控制储蓄的快速增长需要关注政府的储蓄和企业的储蓄。

Savings growth so fast reason is what?We do a simple analysis,The main reason for the savings rate increase is not from residents,Mainly comes from the enterprise and government departments.This is the work of some conclusion,If we would residents' average savings rate,Can be found that residents savings rate is quite smooth,We just see just saving rate has a very high increase,But household saving is not very big growth,And the government departments of the saving rate has a very large increase,The government is about 50%.At the same time we see different departments savings accounts for the proportion of GDP,The government and enterprises in the proportion of of GDP on the increase,Residents have no increase.In order to control the rapid growth of savings to pay attention to the government's savings and enterprise's savings.

　　为什么政府储蓄和企业储蓄这么多？而居民储蓄没有大幅上升，但同时居民的消费又下降，我不是说的绝对值而是占比，我们居民占比在2010年的时候46%点几，去年33%点几，这后面的原因是居民部门可支配收入比重在大幅度下降。为了减少储蓄的过快增加，我们就必须要关注企业和政府的储蓄。有人会说这三个是关联的，当政府储蓄多了居民储蓄减少，等价这样的说法推广到企业部门，企业变得很富有，因为我们最终是成为全体居民是企业的所有者，让企业变得很富有的时候我们很好，我们未来企业有那么多资产在那里可以让我们使用，我们可以减少储蓄，但是我们看到的是居民购买的储蓄是平稳的，并没有随着政府的增长和企业的增长而减少，所以李嘉图等价是不对的，这是一个很重要的问题，关键是政府的投资和企业投资是不是有效，而对等又和收入分配制有很大关系，当企业有很多可支配收入的时候，从外界筹集资金就会下降，有钱不需要银行和资本市场就可以投资，当他投资的时候不受资本市场约束的情况下投资效率就会下降。

Why the government savings and enterprise savings so much?While residents savings not to rise sharply,But at the same time, residents' consumption and decline,I'm not saying of the absolute value of but than,We residents accounted for more than 46% in 2010, when a few points,Last year, 33% point a few,This is the reason behind the proportion of residents department disposable income in decimated.In order to reduce savings increase too fast,We must pay attention to enterprise and government savings.Some people will say that these three is associated,When the government saving much residents savings reduce,Equivalent this idea promotion to enterprise department,Enterprise become very rich,Because we finally is to become all the residents is the owner of the enterprise,Let enterprise become very rich time we are very good,Our future enterprise there are so many assets where you can let us use,We can reduce the savings,But we see is the residents purchase savings is smooth,And not with the growth of the government and the enterprise growth and reduce,So ricardian equivalence is wrong,This is a very important question,The key is the government's investment and enterprise investment is effective,And equivalence and there is a great relationship between income allocation system,When enterprise have a lot of disposable income,From the outside world to raise money will fall,Rich don't need bank and capital market can investment,When he investments from capital market bound investment efficiency will fall.

　　政府也一样，政府有大量的储蓄拿去投资的时候，因为有投资的压力，所以担心政府的投资下降，我不是反正政府做投资，完全没有这个意思，有很多地方需要政府做投资，问题是我们政府储蓄率50%，这是全世界政府里面这么高之一，政府有这么强的能力进行投资，我想一定程度上影响政府投资的效率，我们可以看到大量的例子，有一些形象工程，有一个城市有很好的高架桥，领导们不喜欢把高架桥炸掉去做地下投资，这样明显是浪费。所以为了改善投资效率，我们需要让企业去投资的时候更难一点，他们需要从市场上筹集资金，我们让政府投资更难一定，让他们受到更多的约束和审查。

The government also,The government has a lot of savings and investments,Because of the pressure of investment,So worried about the government's investment dropped,I am not anyway, the government investment,No this meaning,There are a lot of places that need the government investment,The problem is that we government savings rate 50%,This is the world in one of the government so high,The government has so strong ability for investment,I want to a certain extent affect the efficiency of government investment,We can see a lot of examples,There are some image engineering,There is a city has a very good viaduct,Leaders don't like to leave viaduct blow up to do underground investment,This obviously is a waste.So in order to improve the investment efficiency,We need to make enterprise to invest when a little more difficult,They need to raise funds from the market,We let the government investment must be more difficult,Let them be more constraints and review.

　　怎么样来降低企业和政府的可支配收入，反过来的问题是怎么增加居民的可支配收入，其中最重要的因素是劳动者报酬。很多人知道，但是有没有办法增加劳动者报酬占比，其实办法不多，主要的原因是劳动者报酬下降后面驱动因素，我们发现主要是三个原因：一是产业结构，农业向工业和服务业的转型，因为农业中劳动者报酬占比85%到90%之间，而工业和服务业劳动者报酬占比只有50%左右，只有当高的权重在下降，低的在上升的时候，必然会在下降，这样会解决劳动者报酬60%左右，而剩下的主要在工业部门，我们用企业数据分析发现国有企业的改制，国有企业劳动者报酬高于非国有企业，早期的国有企业报酬占比高于现在的国有企业报酬占比，国有企业内部的占比在下降这两个趋势都会带来劳动者报酬占比的下降。

How to reduce the enterprise and the government's disposable income,In turn problem is how to increase the residents' disposable income,One of the most important factors is laborer compensation.Many people know,But is there a way to increase the laborer of remuneration than,Actually not to,The main reason is laborer compensation down the driving factors behind,We found that mainly three reasons:One is the industrial structure,Agriculture to industry and the transformation of service industry,Because agriculture laborers remuneration than accounts for between 85% and 90%,And industrial and service workers pay than accounts for only about 50%,Only when the high weight on the decline,Low on the rise time,Is bound to be on the decline,This will solve the laborer compensation by about 60%,And the rest of the mainly in the industrial sector,We use enterprise data analysis found that the state-owned enterprise restructuring,State-owned enterprise workers pay higher than non-state-owned enterprise,Early state-owned enterprise pay than accounts for above today's state-owned enterprises of remuneration than,State-owned enterprise internal occupy than in down these two trends will bring laborer of remuneration than decline.

　　市场垄断程度的增加，一个垄断性的企业，尽管它的收入比较高，但是它的利润更高，因而使劳动者报酬占比比较低，但垄断企业在经济中的应该，垄断部门经济影响更大的时候，整体劳动者报酬下降。

Market monopoly degree of increase,A monopolistic enterprise,Although it's income is quite high,But its profit higher,Thus make laborer of lower pay than,But the monopoly enterprise in the economy should be,Monopolies economic impact more time,The whole workers pay down.

　　这三个原因，前两个原因经济结构转型和国有企业改制我们都不应该干涉它，因为他们对经济的发展非常重要。而第三个原因垄断我们应该想办法遏制，但是它能起的作用在收入分配方面，在劳动者报酬占比方面它的影响其实是很小。所以我们在政府上要想影响要素分配的比例同时是非常困难的，因为要素分配主要是由市场决定。刚才我们说居民可支配收入占比下降最重要的原因是劳动者报酬占比下降，这方面我们没有用多大的空间政策去影响，我们有其他的影响，居民收入当中还包括消费者收入、纳税等。第二个是居民财产收入占GDP的比重在下降，这几年有制度的原因。当我们投资了以后我们能够选择的投资，比如说他们的存款，我们居民应该有的资产收入。还有企业的分红利息比较低，国际货币基金组织做了调查发现上市公司平均分红率18%，而另外50多个平均分红率27%，我们大概是2/3，这些能够为居民带来财产性收入的渠道，同样是因为制度的原因不畅通，所以为了增加居民可支配收入解决这些问题是非常重要的，利率市场化又会反过来给企业压力。

The three reasons,The first two reasons of economic structure transformation and state-owned enterprise restructuring we all should not interfere with it,Because they are very important to the development of the economy.And the third reason monopoly we should think of a way to contain,But it can play a role in income distribution,In the laborer compensation than aspects of its influence in fact is very small.So we in the government to influence the proportion of allocation of factor at the same time is very difficult,Because elements distribution is mainly decided by the market.Just now we say residents disposable income than down accounts for the most important reason is laborer of remuneration than down,This aspect we don't much space policy to influence,We have other effects,Residents of income also include consumer income/Tax, etc.The second is residents property income in GDP in decline,Over the past few years have the cause of the system.When we invest in the later we can choose investment,For example they deposit,We residents should be some assets income.And enterprise of share out bonus of lower interest rates,The international monetary fund to do the survey found that the listed company average dividends rate 18%,And the other more than 50 average dividends rate 27%,We is about two-thirds,These can bring for residents property income channels,Also because the cause of the system not clear,So in order to increase the per capita disposable income to solve these problems is very important,Interest rate marketization and in turn will give enterprise pressure.

　　还有一个原因是再分配的过程？关于税收不想讲太多，主要强调社保，参加社保的人他们的交税率很高，我们五险，不算住房公积金，个人的交税、法人交税40%左右，其实企业交税落到员工身上，所以40%的交税率是非常高的，我们做过简单的比较，全世界有12个国家交税率比我们国家，这12个国家除了拉美国家以外其他都是转型经济，当然这有历史的根源，但是我们不应该让历史的根源影响交税率。如果降低了社保交税率的同时又降低了社保同时，不能增加居民可支配收入的过程，应该找其他的来源增加居民可支配收入，对于遏制投资的快速增长同时又可以增加居民可支配收入的方法，就是让企业的分红用于社保，让企业的分红服务社保，用企业分红以后，不仅增加企业市场压力，当然投资的时候需要更多从外部筹集资金可以改善企业效率，同时企业的分红用于社保的话，把收入从企业的可支配收入变成居民的可支配收入，当然这个过程中必须改善公司制度的环境，如果说公司制度不改善，企业即使负债很多还会盲目的投资，所以为了实现这样的目的还需要改善公司制度。

And one reason is that the process of redistribution?About tax do not want to say too much,The main emphasis on social security,To participate in social security people their pay tax rate is very high,We five risk,Not the public accumulation fund for housing construction,Personal tax/Corporate tax 40%,In fact the enterprise to pay tax on his staff,So 40% of pay rate is very high,We do a simple comparison,Throughout the world, there are 12 countries pay tax rate than our country,This 12 countries in addition to other Latin American countries are transitional economy,Of course this is the root of the history,But we should not let the root of history into the influence tax rate.If reduced into the social security tax rate at the same time and reduce the social security at the same time,Do not increase the residents' disposable income process,Should find other sources increase the residents' disposable income,To contain the rapid growth of investment at the same time can increase the residents' disposable income method,Is that the enterprises of share out bonus of used for social security,Let the enterprise of share out bonus of social security service,With the enterprise after share out bonus,Not only increase the enterprise market pressure,Of course when need more investment from the external raise funds can improve enterprise efficiency,At the same time of share out bonus of enterprise for the word of social security,The income from enterprise's disposable income become residents' disposable income,Of course this process must improve the company system environment,If the system is not improve,Enterprise even liabilities many will also blind investment,So in order to achieve such purpose also needs to improve the company system.

　　但是我刚才这样的提议，公司制度的改善有外界的压力，我觉得也是课题。总的来说，转变经济发展方式非常重要，最重要的方面是从驱动型的经济增长转变为效率驱动型的经济增长，这要求我们提高投资的效率，有几个不同的渠道，在改善自主的前提下减少企业可支配收入占比，可以恶意投资的过快增长，同样我们改善政府收入增长也可以改善投资效率。为此提两项措施，一是市场化，二是增加企业分红来补充社保。谢谢。

But I just such a proposal,The company system improvement have outside pressure,I think is also subject.In general,Transformation of the mode of economic development is very important,The most important aspect of economic growth from drive type into efficiency drive type of economic growth,This requires us to improve the efficiency of the investment,There are several different channels,To improve the independent premise to reduce enterprise than disposable income accounted for,The rapid increase of the investment can be malicious,At the same time we improve the government revenue growth can also improve the investment efficiency.Therefore carry two measures,One is the marketization,The second is to increase enterprise share out bonus to supplement social security.thank you.