汇丰控股的全球战略调整终于波及中国内地市场。继在美国、英国、俄罗斯、中东以及印度市场进行“大清洗”后，中国平安(601318,股吧)成为汇丰的一个抛售目标。

HSBC holdings of global strategic adjustment finally conformance to the mainland market.In the United States after/British/Russia/The Middle East and Indian market"Big cleaning"after,China peace(601318,guba)As HSBC's a selling target.

　　在汇丰沽售中国平安股份传闻甚嚣尘上之时，汇丰11月19日发布公告称：“汇丰不时会收到第三方收购其持有股份的接洽，并确认有关商讨正在进行中，而有关的商讨有可能会或不会导致股份出售。”这句回应似乎印证其与平安的十年“姻缘”将走向尽头的事实。

In HSBC GuShou China peace rumours of further shares,HSBC November 19 announcement said:"HSBC will receive a third party from time to time acquisition of the shares held by the approach,And confirm to discuss is underway,And related to discuss may or may not lead to sell shares."This sentence seems to confirm the response and peace ten years"marriage"The fact that will end up.

　　2002年，汇丰斥资6亿美元入股中国平安，后通过汇丰集团旗下的汇丰保险溢价收购平安另外两家外资战投的股权，稳坐第一大股东的交椅。目前，汇丰持有中国平安12.328亿股H股，占总股本的15.57%。

In 2002,,HSBC $600 million in China's peace,After through the HSBC group's HSBC insurance premium acquisition peace two other foreign wars put equity,Sit tight in the first big shareholder's best.At present,HSBC holding China peace 1.2328 billion shares H shares,Accounted for 15.57% of the total share capital.

　　不过，由于此次股权转让涉及的交易金额较大，找到合适的买家并非易事。媒体曝光的潜在买家有泰国首富谢国民掌控的正大集团和中国投资有限公司子公司汇金。据悉，前者正在商讨的交易价格或高达740亿港元。

but,Due to the equity transfer involved in the transaction amount is larger,Find the right buyer is not easy.Media exposure potential buyers have Thailand's richest man in XieGuoMin zhengda group and China investment co., LTD., subsidiary huijin.It is reported,The former is to discuss the market price or up to hk $74 billion.

　　汇丰出售平安股份或许只剩时间问题，但令市场更担忧的是，汇丰在中国的抛售行为是否会继续。除了中国平安，汇丰在中国还持有交通银行(601328,股吧)19.03%的股权，是交行第二大股东；同时持上海银行8%的股权。

HSBC sell shares may peace only a matter of time,But to the market more concern is,HSBC in China's selling behavior will continue.In addition to China's peace,HSBC in China also hold bank of communications(601328,guba)19.03% of the equity,Is the second largest shareholder in the;At the same time holding 8% equity stake in the bank of Shanghai.

　　——杨斯媛

- YangSiYuan

　　中国“影子银行”：

China"Shadow Banks":

　　一本糊涂账

A a mess

　　11月，金融稳定委员会（FSB）发布最新报告，全球“影子银行”系统的资产规模在2002年至2007年间从26万亿美元增长到62万亿美元，到2011年进一步增至67万亿美元，创下历史新高。

November,Financial stability committee(FSB)Released the new report,The global"Shadow Banks"System asset scale between 2002 and 2007 growth from $26 trillion to $62 trillion,To further in 2011 to $67 trillion,Hitting record highs.

　　其中，2011年美国“影子银行”资产规模达到23万亿美元，为全球最高；其次是欧元区为22万亿美元。

the,In 2011 the United States"Shadow Banks"Asset scale up to 23 trillion dollars,For the highest;The second is the euro area for 22 trillion dollars.

　　在中国，对影子银行虽未有统一的定义，但中央财经大学中国银行(601988,股吧)业研究中心主任郭田勇认为，从事银行信贷等相关业务的非银行机构均应归属影子银行体系，包括银行业内部的理财产品、委托贷款业务，也包括信托公司、担保机构、小额贷款公司等进行的“储蓄转投资”业务，也包括数额巨大的民间金融。

In China,The shadow banking is not unified definition,But the bank of China, the central university of finance and economics(601988,guba)Industry research center director guo TianYong think,Engaged in bank credit and other related business non-bank institutions shall belong to the shadow banking system,Including banking internal financial products/Entrust loan business,Also includes trust company/Guarantee agencies/Small loan companies and"Savings investment transfer"business,Also include the huge amount of folk finance.

　　今年10月10日，世界货币基金组织(IMF)发布的《全球金融稳定报告》提示中国关注“影子银行”问题。

October 10,,The international monetary fund(IMF)released[Global financial stability report]Suggest China focus on"Shadow Banks"problems.

　　两天后，中国银行行长肖钢发表英文文章称，中国银行业乃至金融业未来巨大的风险来自于以银行理财产品为代表的影子银行。他甚至称，有些理财产品是“庞氏骗局”。

Two days later,The bank of China governor XiaoGang published English articles said,China's banking and financial industry in the future great risk from to bank financing products as a representative of shadow Banks.He even said,Some financial products are"Ponzi scheme".

　　十八大期间，中国人民银行行长周小川接受记者采访时表示：“我们的影子银行的性质和规模比发达国家小得多。此外，中国绝大多数非银行金融机构的金融活动都处在严格的金融监管之下，而不是像有些国家那样完全脱离监管。”

During the eighteenth big,The people's bank of China governor zhou xiaochuan said when accepting a reporter to interview:"Our shadow Banks nature and scale much smaller than the developed countries.In addition,China's most non-bank financial institutions are in financial activities strictly under the financial supervision,Not like some countries that completely out of supervision."

　　银监会主席尚福林则称：“我们说的影子银行，绝大多数从法规层面上讲是有监管的。”

He is chairman of the banking regulatory commission (CBRC) said:"We say that shadow Banks,Most from regulations level of speaking is a regulation."

　　由于统计制度的问题，中国官方一直没有发布影子银行相关的数据。而不同机构由于统计口径不同，其所统计的中国“影子银行”规模大相径庭。

Due to the problem of statistical system,Chinese officials have been released no shadow bank related data.And different institutions due to different statistical caliber,The statistics of China"Shadow Banks"Different scale.

　　FSA最近发布的数据是0.4万亿美元，折合人民币2.4万亿元，相比之下，瑞银的估计非常夸张，以最广义的口径计算，中国影子银行的规模将达到24.4万亿元人民币，二者相差了十倍。这从另一个侧面表明，中国的“影子银行”是一本糊涂账。

FSA recently released data is $0.4 trillion,Conversion of RMB 2.4 trillion yuan,Compared with,Ubs estimates very hyperbole,In the most general diameter calculation,Chinese shadow Banks scale will reach 24.4 trillion yuan RMB,The difference of ten times.This from another side show,China's"Shadow Banks"Is this a mess.

　　——詹晨

- ZhanChen

　　券商预测就是一个游戏

Brokers prediction is a game

　　回顾券商2012年度投资策略报告可以发现，几家主流券商对于今年的大盘走势都比较乐观，比如申银万国认为“A股将有一波大行情，最高3000点”，国泰君安表示“A股将演绎小牛市”并认为大盘点位将落在2300~3000点，还有平安证券也乐观地表示“A股市场有望逐步企稳回升”。

Review of the 2012 annual report securities investment strategy can be found,Several mainstream brokers for this year's market trends are more optimistic,Such as ShenYin that all nations"A shares will have A wave of big market,The highest point of 3000",Guotai junan said"A shares will deduce the little bull market"And that the market will point fall in 2300 ~ 3000 points,Peace and security are more optimistic"A-share market is expected to gradually stabilising picks up".

　　但事实正如大家所看到的。近两个月上证指数在2100点附近徘徊，实际上自2012年以来，指数在上半年反弹最高到2478点之后就陷入震荡下跌，股指最低曾触及1999点。3000点在今年是显然看不到的。

But the fact as you can see.Nearly two months in Shanghai index near 2100 wandering,In fact since 2012,Index rebound in the first half of the highest point to 2478 after falling into shock,The lowest point once touch 1999 points.3000 points in this year is obviously cannot see.

　　特别一提的是东兴证券，这家公司因为预测2011年股指会高达4500点被认为是“最不靠谱”，2012年该公司相对保守，预计股指最高有望3567点，但显然又失算了。

Special mention cooperation is securities,The company in 2011 because prediction index can be as much as 4500 points to be considered"The most by spectrum",In 2012 the company relatively conservative,Stock is expected to top is expected to 3567 points,But obviously and mistake.

　　当然也有判断比较到位的，比如华泰联合预计股指维持整体回落，称“A股市场整体回落趋势难改”。还有中信建投预计的股指波动区间为1800~2600点，与股市表现相对吻合。

There are, of course, is in the judgment,Such as huatai joint stock is expected to maintain the corrections,says"A-share market fell to the overall trend of change".And citic built cast expected stock index fluctuation interval for 1800 ~ 2600 points,And stock market performance relative anastomosis.

　　除了大盘表现“出乎意料”，券商看好的个股综合表现也不耐看。据统计，最被券商看好的十只个股，2012年以来仅有3只上涨，分别是保利地产(600048,股吧)、民生银行(600016,股吧)和伊利股份(600887,股吧)。

In addition to the market performance"unexpectedly",Brokers value stocks integrated performance is not able to bear or endure look.According to the statistics,The most promising brokers only ten individual stocks,Since 2012 only three rise,Poly real estate respectively(600048,guba)/Minsheng bank(600016,guba)And Erie shares(600887,guba).

　　券商预判失利，今年不是特例，实际上这已经是连续第四年集体错判。2009年券商过分看低，之后则是高估了市场的表现。

Brokers anticipation defeat,This year is not special case,In fact this is the fourth year in a row collective mistake.2009 brokers too short,Then the performance of the market is overvalued.

　　近两年对于券商研报“不靠谱”的讨论很多，实际上各种“研报门”事件后，券商发布研究报告一事受到的监管越来越多，不仅是证券业协会要求券商加强规范自律以及树立卖方研究的严肃形象，证监会也下达了规范研报发布行为的通知——不得对证券价格的涨跌或者市场走势作出确定性的判断。

Nearly two years for brokers research report"By spectrum"Discuss many of the,In fact all kinds of"Research report door"incident,Issued by the securities research report by the regulation more and more,The securities industry association is not only for brokers to strengthen self-discipline and set up the standard research serious image,The CSRC also issued the standard research report issued the notice of behavior - not to the ups and downs of the stock price or market trends to the judgment of the uncertainty.

　　——肖妍茹

- XiaoYan shavings

　　泽熙投资身陷“酒鬼酒”

Ze hee in investment"Drunkard wine"

　　2012年11月19日上午，因媒体《酒鬼酒塑化剂超标高达260%、毒性为三聚氰胺20倍》等报道，酒鬼酒盘前发布紧急公告宣布停牌。

On November 19, 2012 in the morning,Because of the media[Drunkard wine plasticizer overweight as high as 260%/Toxic for melamine twenty times]Reports such as,Drunkard wine plate issued prior to the emergency declared suspended.

　　受该事件影响，当日白酒股全线暴跌，多只白酒股盘中一度跌停。酒鬼酒因紧急停牌，躲过了大跌，却不不意味着它最终能够从该“黑天鹅”事件中全身而退，一时间竟成“烫手山芋”。

By this event influence,The liquor shares in all,More than one liquor stock plate once drop stop.Alcoholic liquor suspended because of an emergency,Survived the crash,But no means that it will eventually be able to from this"Black swan"Events in and out of the body,Time to have"Hot potato".

　　据酒鬼酒三季报，除了社保以及诸多公募基金重仓外，阳光私募中知名的交易派泽熙投资，亦在第三季度高位接盘酒鬼酒。

According to the drunkard wine three quarterly report,In addition to social security and other public offering fund heavy bin,Sunshine private famous trade pie ze hee investment,Also in the third quarter high flange drunkard wine.

　　其中泽熙瑞金1号三季度买入了313.41万股，占据第七大流通股东；华润深国投-龙信基金通1号（又称泽熙11期）也在三季度建仓了297.32万股，为第九大流通股股东。

The ze hee the third quarter 1 bought 3.1341 million shares,The seventh largest circulation shareholders occupy;Huarun deep international trust &investment - dragon letter fund through 1(Also called ze hee and period)Also in the third quarter open a position 2.9732 million strands,9 big tradable shares.

　　泽熙投资的掌舵者徐翔缔造了在多年熊市内依然保证不菲的正收益的神话，去年曾在低点接盘重庆啤酒(600132,股吧)，操作近乎完美。此次是否会在酒鬼酒上遭遇滑铁卢，成为业界所津津乐道的话题。

Ze hee investment helmsman XuXiang created in many years in the bear market is still not guarantee is the myth of the income,Last year was in low flange chongqing beer(600132,guba),Operating near perfect.This would be in the drunkard wine experience Waterloo,Become the industry's heated topic.

　　——宁鹏

- NingPeng

　　第十届外汇论坛在沪召开

Tenth exchange BBS held in Shanghai

　　11月22日，由和讯网主办的第十届中国财经风云榜·外汇论坛——危机·合作·蝶变在上海富豪环球东亚酒店举行。

On November 22,HeXunWang by the tenth China's financial situation · exchange BBS - crisis · cooperation · butterfly become rich in Shanghai east Asia hotel held around the world.

　　中国外汇投资研究院院长谭雅玲在主题为“全球经济形势与中国对策”的演讲中指出，全球正处在一个流动性过剩的时代，但市场思维停留在流动性不足的时代。黄金暴涨以及通胀的问题，是以流动性不足的理论来推论的。

China's foreign investment research institute President TanYaLing in theme"The global economic situation and China's countermeasures"Pointed out in his speech,The global is in a liquidity era,But the market thinking to stay in the era of liquidity shortage.Gold boom and the problem of inflation,Based on the theory of liquidity shortage to concluded.

　　她指出，中国通胀数据下降，但物价并没有下来，所以面对流动性过剩时期，通胀的基础要素在变化，过去的通胀是需求为主，流动性不足，而现在的通胀是投资和投机为主，流动性过剩。

She points out that,China's inflation data down,But the price is not down,So face the liquidity period,Inflation the basic elements in change,The past inflation is mainly demand,Liquidity shortage,And now inflation is investment and speculation is given priority to,liquidity.