随着明年的宏观经济形势和政策走向渐趋明朗，2013年A股的行业配置逻辑也逐渐“有迹可循”。多家研究机构认为，在宏观经济弱复苏与财政积极货币稳健的政策基调下，短期着力周期、中期精耕成长或将有较好收益。

Along with the next year's macro economic situation and policy to gradually clear,In 2013 A share of industry configuration logic also gradually"It leaves tracks".Several research institutions think,In the macro economy weak recovery and financial positive monetary policy under steady tone,Short-term focus on cycle/In the middle of the fine tillage growth or there will be a good income.

　　着眼上半年，经济短周期回稳的迹象明显，考虑到较低的基数效应，加之逆周期调控政策累积效应的释放，今年四季度到明年一季度，经济数据同比改善的动力较强。中原证券分析称，短期经济回升将带动周期股的业绩回转弹性，加之机构在传统周期性行业上的严重低配，明年上半年周期股的“短跑”优势更为明显。

Look forward to the first half,Economic short period signs that he obviously,Considering the lower base effect,Together with reverse cycle regulation policy cumulative effect of the release,In the first quarter of this year to the fourth quarter next year,Economic data to improve power strong year-on-year.Zhongyuan securities analysis says,The short-term economic rebound will drive cycle stock performance rotary elastic,Together with institutions in traditional cyclical industry with serious low,The first half of next year cycle stocks"sprint"Advantage is more apparent.

　　“需求结构性改善有望在明年驱动中下游周期性行业盈利回升。”国金证券(600109,股吧)分析称，春季到来前布局周期品种将有利于投资者分享经济季节性波动引发的机会。周期性行业细分来看，多家研究机构建议关注确定性较高的基建相关板块。此前有业内人士分析，在货币政策总体稳健的情况下，积极财政政策或仍是明年政策调控的着力点，而在此拉动下的基建回暖确定性较强。

"Demand structural improvement in the next year is expected to drive in the middle and lower reaches of cyclical industry profits rebounded."Countries gold securities(600109,guba)Analysis says,Spring arrival of layout cycle varieties will be good for investors to share economic seasonal variation caused by the opportunity.Cyclical industry segmentation to see,Several research institutions Suggestions focus on deterministic higher infrastructure related sectors.After the personage inside course of study,In the monetary policy under the condition of steady overall,Active fiscal policy or regulation policy is still the starting point of next year,In the pull of the infrastructure milder deterministic stronger.

　　今年9月以来，铁路投资显著加速，中原证券预计，明年铁路投资规模仍有望保持高位，铁路设备板块显著受益。而随着今冬明春水利投资的加速和南水北调工程推进，水利工程、管道及设备等水利板块亦有望受惠。国泰君安同样认为，明年上半年基建投资增速向上的铁路和轨道交通板块受益最具确定性。海通证券(600837,股吧)则预计，一季度下游周期品中的地产和汽车具备较优的配置价值，此外伴随需求回升和产能释放接近尾声，中游的水泥盈利将最早改善，工程机械和重卡亦值得关注。

Since September this year,Railway investment accelerated significantly,Zhongyuan securities is expected to,Next railway investment scale is still expected to remain high,Railway equipment plate significant benefits.As winter water conservancy investment timetable for an American to accelerate and advance the south-to-north water diversion project,Water conservancy project/Pipeline and equipment hydraulic plate also is expected to benefit.Guotai junan also think,The first half of next year infrastructure investment growth up railway and the railway traffic plate benefit most certainty.Haitong securities(600837,guba)Is expected to,Quarter of the downstream cycle product property and car has the optimal configuration value,In addition with demand picks up and production release near the end,Middle cement profits will improve the earliest,Engineering machinery and heavy card also deserves attention.

　　不过，鉴于本轮经济复苏的周期较长，2013年更可能呈现弱复苏格局，周期股的弹性或有逊于前期，中期来看精耕大消费行业的成长股仍是良策。有研究人员表示，随着估值调整，绩优消费类个股明年下半年或有更好表现。

but,In view of this economic recovery period is longer,2013 years are more likely to has a weak recovery pattern,Cycle strands of elastic or the inferior,The medium term fine tillage big consumption industry growth stock is still good.Researchers said,Along with the valuation adjustment,Optimal performance consumer stocks in the second half of next year or have a better performance.

　　“弱周期下宜寻找符合转型方向的‘长跑冠军’”，申银万国证券分析称，劳动报酬占比提升，收入分配制度改革决定消费扩张为必然趋势，消费股中的医药是最为受益的品种。而随着文化产业逐渐成为支柱产业，传媒行业的市值成长空间被打开。国金证券则认为，受益地产销售回暖，家电行业2013年景气看好，旅游业亦能维持高景气。

"Weak period should be looking for conform to the direction of the transformation‘Long-distance running champion’",ShenYin universal security analysis says,Work reward than of ascension,Reform of the income distribution system is an inevitable trend to expand consumption,Consumption share of medicine is the most benefit varieties.But along with the cultural industry has become a pillar industry,The market value of the media industry growth space is open.Countries that gold stock is,Benefit from real estate sales milder,Household electrical appliance industry in 2013 promising business,Tourism also can maintain high boom.

　　此外，申万研究认为，“金融改革”仍将是明年重要主题，相关金改政策有望逐步贡献业绩，“十二五”期间的金融体系改革将拓宽以券商为代表的非银行金融机构成长空间，实现超越周期的增长。由于节能环保作为经济可持续发展的大主题已被提升到战略高度。“2011年全国环境污染治理投资6593亿元，其中工业污染源治理仅投资444亿元，工业污染治理投资增长空间巨大。”申万研究分析称，环保行业上市公司估值水平较为合理，建议关注政策落实和环保投资需求的爆发点。

In addition,"All that research,"Financial reform"Next year will still be an important theme,Relevant gold change policy is expected to gradually contribution performance,"1025"During the period of financial system reform will widen to brokers as a representative of non-bank financial institutions growth space,To overtake cycle of growth.Due to energy conservation and environmental protection as a sustainable economic development of the theme has been promoted to strategic height."In 2011 the environmental pollution control investment of 659.3 billion yuan,The industrial pollution source management only investment of 44.4 billion yuan,Industrial pollution control investment growth space is enormous.""All study says,Environmental protection industry listed companies is more reasonable valuation levels,Suggest attention to policy implementation and environmental protection investment demand of the breaking point.

　　“此外，作为广泛涵盖从周期到消费的投资主题，‘新型城镇化’可能成为保持经济增长、推动各项改革的战略发展主线。”安信证券认为，城镇化发展第一阶段改善城市基础建设将是重点，建筑建材、轨交设备、环保、汽车和房地产等受益明显。记者 祝乃嘉

"In addition,As a wide range from period to the point of consumption for the investment subject,‘New urbanization’May be keeping the economic growth/Promote the reform of the main strategic development."Access securities think,The first phase of the urbanization development improve urban infrastructure will be key,Building materials/Rail into equipment/Environmental protection/Cars and real estate obvious benefit.Reporter ZhuNaiJia