理财周报记者 江勋

Financial weekly JiangXun reporter

　　本周，伯南克开启了QE4，这个版本的QE4实质上只是QE3的延伸。不过，美联储令人吃惊的宣布将QE与具体的6.5%失业率和2.5%通胀率门槛进行明确挂钩，这比资本界预期要来的早得多。

This week,Bernanke opens the QE4,This version of the QE4 is essentially QE3 extension.but,The fed surprisingly announced QE and specific 6.5% 2.5% unemployment and inflation threshold clearly hook,This is capital boundary is expected to be of much earlier.

　　所以，吃惊的不是QE4，而是QE4为什么非要显得如此鹰派？考虑到伯南克此前已经明确提出“2015年中”的时间门槛，我猜伯南克是要在离任前搞“白帝城托孤”，岂不哀哉。

so,Surprise is not QE4,But QE4 why don't look so hawks?Considering the bernanke had already put forward"2015 years"Time threshold,I guess bernanke is to make before he leaves office"BaiDiCheng entrust an orphan to",Not alas.

　　好了，我们继续上周的话题。

good,We continue to last week's topic.

　　1970年代初，伯恩斯任美联储主席，开始接受单一规则，把“货币供应量”作为政策目标，其结果就是1970年代的世纪大滞胀。如果历史停留在那一刻，货币主义早已破产。它的继任者，著名鹰派沃尔克开始强硬反通胀，它的办法是在“货币供应量”上再绑定一个“目标利率”，最终使美国迫降。

In the early 1970 s,Burns as chairman of the federal reserve,Began to accept a single rule,the"Money supply"As a policy goal,The result is 1970 s century big stagflation.If history stay in that moment,Monetarism have bankruptcy.Its successor,Famous hawks volcker began to tough against inflation,It is in the way"Money supply"On a more binding"Target rate",Finally make the landing.

　　关于这场调控的胜利，货币主义者拐弯抹角称赞其符合“单一增长规则”，弗里曼1976年获得诺贝尔经济学奖。但其实，它带有浓厚的凯恩斯味道。

About the regulation of victory,Monetarists beat around the bush praised the accord with"Single growth rules",Freeman received the Nobel Prize in economics in 1976.But in fact,It has a strong taste of John Maynard Keynes.

　　值得注意的是，时任汤森—格林斯潘有限公司总裁兼纽约经济顾问的格林斯潘，是最激烈的反对者，足见货币主义理论的迷惑性有多大。回头看，沃尔克之所以反通胀成功却没有引发高失业率，就在于产出缺口较小，而社会流通中的资产缺口太大。

It is important to note that,The townsend - Alan greenspan co., LTD., President and New York economic advisor Alan greenspan,Is the most fierce opponents,It serves to show the monetary theory of rhetoric have how old.Look back,The volcker against inflation success did not cause high unemployment,Is the output gap smaller,The social distribution of assets in gap is too big.

　　之后的事情触及了货币主义核心。1980年代中期，几乎美国所有结支类商业银行账目全都坏掉，大批银行开始倒闭。原因是，在货币总量框架下，银行拉存款房贷款的商业模式始终无法解决资本金的悖论，激烈竞争环境中，银行短期存款利率甚至高于长期贷款利率，银行吃息差的商业模式濒临崩溃。

After things touch the monetary socialist core.In the mid 1980 s,Almost all American "a kind of commercial bank accounts are all bad,A large number of Banks began to collapse.Reason is,In the framework of monetary aggregates,Bank loan and deposit room business model still cannot solve the capital of the paradox,Fierce competition environment,Short-term bank deposit rates even higher than the long-term loan interest rate,Banks have carry business model is on the verge of collapse.

　　为了保护银行，美国监管机构后来又推行了存款利率最高限额，这反而刺激了严重的“金融脱媒”，资金从金融机构流出，转向收益更高的投资领域，如货币市场金融工具、政府债券以及后来出现的货币市场共同基金，后来还出现一些非常类似现在银行理财产品的定存工具。货币的通道和价格体系逐渐失控。

In order to protect the bank,American regulators and later introduced a deposit interest rate ceiling,But this stimulates the serious"Financial disintermediation",Funds from financial institutions outflow,To higher yield of investments,Such as money market financial instruments/Government bonds and later in money market mutual funds,Then also appeared some very similar now bank financing products will save tools.Monetary channel and price system gradually out of control.

　　其实，当年美国的整个环境和当下中国金融环境非常类似。它说明，货币主义框架下的货币定价，是货币主义自身解决不了的问题。于是，1980年代中期后，美国通过一系列政策开始放松对金融机构尤其是银行的监管，拓宽经营范围，实施大规模证券化，直至1999年废除1933年的“格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案”。借助信息高速路，美国金融行业GDP一路狂飙。

In fact,When the United States and the whole environment of China's financial environment are very similar.It shows that,Under the framework of monetarism monetary pricing,Is monetarism itself can not solve the problem.so,After the mid 1980 s,The United States through a series of policy began to ease financial institutions especially bank supervision,Broaden the scope of business,Carried out large-scale securitization,Until 1999 the abolition of 1933"Glass-steagall act".With the information highway,The United States financial industry GDP way hurricane.

　　混业经营及金融创新开掘了一个人类历史上空前的资产市场。这个市场紧密连接货币市场和产出市场，有效实施货币定价的功能，从而也决定杠杆的长短。它在资本运动中构建了一个多层次资产负债表，成为现金流量表与利润表之外的第三极，资本脉冲难题找到了解决方案。

Mixed operation and financial innovation dig a unprecedented in human history of asset markets.This market is closely connected to the money market and output market,Effective implement monetary pricing function,And also determine the length of the lever.It in the capital movement of constructing a multi-level balance sheet,Become a cash flow statement and profit statement outside of the third pole,Capital pulse problem to find the solution.

　　看上去，这不是完美的造物么？

looks,This is not a perfect creation yao?