[ 我们只能寄希望2013年要让决策关系到决策者的切身利益。一个安全公正的社会必须这么做 ]

[we can only hope that 2013 years to make decision in relation to the decision maker's vital interests.A safe fair society must do so]

　　就我而言，2012年的精彩瞬间是我在困难时刻得到了来自一名消防队员的鼓励。他说我提出的尾端风险概念很容易理解。他的问题是为什么那些风险大师、学者和金融模型师反而会不明白。

As far as I'm concerned,2012 years is a moment in my hard time got from a firefighters encouragement.He said that I put forward the end of the risk concept is easy to understand.His problem is why the risk master/Scholars and financial model t it will not understand.

　　其实这条信息本身已经告诉我们答案。此人是位消防员，他承担不起曲解风险所带来的后果。一旦出错将对他本人造成直接的损害。换言之，他自己的切身利益牵涉其中。此外，他是个值得尊敬的人，在没有额外酬劳的情况下用自己的生命去冒险。

In fact, this message itself has told us the answer.He is a fireman,He can't afford to distort the consequences of risk.Once the error will be on him a direct damage.In other words,His own vital interests involved.In addition,He is a respectable person,Without additional compensation using his own life to take the risk.

　　切身利益概念关系到纷繁复杂的世界能否正常运转。不透明的制度激励经营者在谋取利益的同时隐藏风险。没有任何风险管理法能够取代切身利益——特别是在信息既不透明又不对称的前提下，此外经济学家所谓的委托代理问题也无法避免。

Vital interests concept related to the complicated world can normal operation.Opaque system operators in the interests of the incentive for hidden risk at the same time.No risk administration can take the place of interests - especially in the information is not transparent and asymmetric premise,In addition what economists call the principal-agent problem also is unable to avoid.

　　得到好处的人并不一定承担风险，如银行家和企业管理人员“绩效出色”可以得到奖金，但绩效不佳却不用缴纳罚款。因此他们有动机隐瞒销售的尾端风险——换言之就是尽量拖延风险的兑现。

Benefit of people don't necessarily take the risk,Such as bankers and enterprise management personnel"Performance good"Can get bonus,But poor performance but need not pay the fine.So they have the motivation to hide the end of the sales risk - in other words is to delay the risk of cash.

　　古人对隐藏风险的动机有着充分认识，他们的解决方法有效而又简单。约3800年前的汉谟拉比法典规定若房屋倒塌并致人死亡，那么房屋的建造者必须以命相抵。

The hidden risk motivation has a full understanding,Their solution method is effective and simple.About 3800 years ago hammurabi code provisions if houses collapsed and deadly,So the house builder must take life balance.

　　这条简单宗旨起源于“以眼还眼”原则和“己所不欲，勿施于人”的黄金道德法则。但抛开道德不谈，这也是有史以来最有效的风险管理法则。

This one simple purpose originated from"An eye for an eye"Principle and"To others what you would not have,Don't expect people to"Gold moral law.But put aside the moral don't talk,This is the most effective risk management rule.

　　先人们理解建造商一定比客户更多地了解风险，并可以借由偷工减料隐瞒弱点，扩大利润。地基是隐藏风险的最佳地点。建筑商也可以欺骗监理，与调查人员相比，瞒报风险者有着信息上的巨大优势。

The first people understand builder must be better than the customer know more about risk,And can borrow from jerry hide weaknesses,Expand profit.The foundation is the best place hidden risk.The builders of the supervision,Compared with investigators,Conceal the risk has the great advantage of information.

　　为什么我认为某些人更愿意“看着好”而不是“做得好”？简言之就是缺乏个人风险。问题和补救方法如下所述：

Why do I think some people are more willing to"Look good"not"Do well"?In short is lack of individual risk.Problems and remedial method are described below:

　　先来看决策者和政界人士。在自治市这样的分散系统，羞耻心令他们不敢犯错去伤害别人。但如果是大型集权系统，错误的来源没那么明显，电子表格也不会给人带来羞耻感。于是耻辱和其他因素都成为支持分权的理由。

First see decision makers and politicians.In municipalities such disperse system,Sense of shame to make mistakes they dare not to hurt others.But if it is large centralized system,The source of the error is not so obvious,Electronic form will not bring shame.So shame and other factors have become the reason of separation of support.

　　其次，我们误解了企业管理者的激励结构。与公众的看法相反，企业管理者并不是企业家。他们不是所谓的资本主义代理。2000年以来，美国股市已导致投资人高达两万亿美元的财富化为乌有（参照标准是持有现金或购买国库券）。

secondly,We misunderstood enterprise managers incentive structure.And the public opinion instead,Enterprise managers are not entrepreneurs.They are not the so-called capitalist agency.Since 2000,The United States has led to the stock market investors as much as $two trillion wealth crumble to dust(Reference standards are holding cash or to buy Treasury bonds).

　　因此人们会认为由于绩效激励机制是管理人员薪酬的基础，他们有时会遭受损失。但实际情况根本不是如此：目前存在奖励和惩罚不对称的问题。赔钱的管理者无需承担赔偿责任。企业管理者的报酬本身包含期权性风险，只有通过迫使其承担部分损失，这种风险才能解除。嵌入性期权的存在导致在股东受损的同时，管理人员却赚取了超过5000亿美元的巨额利润。

So people will think because of performance incentive mechanism is the foundation of management staff,Sometimes they will suffer loss.But the actual situation is not so:Existing reward and punish asymmetry problem.Out of pocket managers need not assume liability to pay compensation.Enterprise managers' pay itself contains option sexual risk,It is only through the force of the responsibility of loss,The risk to remove.Embeddedness option in the presence of shareholders to damaged at the same time,Management has earned more than $500 billion in profits.

　　第三，经济学家、定量模型师和政策专家同样存在问题。经济模型不切合实际的原因是没有针对经济学家的惩罚措施，他们不会因自身的错误而遭受惩罚。只需搞定学术期刊的编辑，他们的工作即被视为卓有成效。

The third,economists/Quantitative model t and policy experts also problems.Economic model not practical reason is not according to the economist's punishment,They won't because of their mistakes and punished.Just get academic journal editor,Their work is deemed to be fruitful.

　　结果导致我们所用的投资组合理论模型和类似方法缺乏最基本的实证理由。解决方法是防止经济学家指导实际工作者。此处再次凸显权力下放的重要性：体制政策由基层小型单位确定，这样就不再需要经济学家。

As a result the portfolio theory model and similar lack even the most basic method of empirical reason.The solution is to prevent the economist guide practical workers.Here again highlights the importance of decentralization:System policy by small units at the grass-roots level to determine,This will no longer need an economist.

　　第四，社会经济领域的预测缺乏准确性，但预测者却极少因此承担后果。但我们知道人们在看到数字化预测后更敢于冒险。解决办法是只询问并考虑预测者做了什么，或者未来将会怎么做。

The fourth,The social and economic fields of prediction accuracy,But forecasters seldom so take the consequences.But we know that people see after digital forecast more adventurous.Solution is to only ask and consider the forecasters do,Or the future will be how to do.

　　我告诉人们我的投资组合有哪些内容，而不是我的预测；这样，我将是第一个受害者。在不承担亏损风险的情况下将其他人拖入其中是不道德的。在我的著作《避免脆弱性》中，我甘冒书评家之大不韪，告诉人们我做了什么，而不是他们该怎么做。我这么做不是因为此书是自传体，而是因为另一种方法道德有亏。

I tell people I portfolio what content,Not my prediction;this,I will be the first victim.In does not assume the risk of loss to the others into which is immoral.In my work[Avoid vulnerability]in,I am willing to critics of the universal condemnation,Tell people what I do,Rather than they do.I did not because of this book is autobiography,But because of another kind of method is morally deficient.

　　最后是战争贩子。要想对付他们，消费者保护先驱兼美国前总统候选人拉尔夫·纳德曾经提出，那些投票支持战争的人必须亲自或让子女参军。

The last is a warmonger.If you want to deal with them,Consumer protection pioneer and former presidential candidate Ralph nade was put forward,Those who voted for the war must personally or allow children to join the army.

　　我们只能寄希望2013年要让决策关系到决策者的切身利益。一个安全公正的社会必须这么做。

We can only hope that 2013 years to make decision in relation to the decision maker's vital interests.A safe fair society must do so.

　　（作者系纽约大学理工学院风险工程教授、《避免脆弱性：无序的收益》一书的作者，本文节选改编自这部著作。翻译：Xu Binbin。版权所有：Project Syndicate, 2012）

(The author is New York university institute of technology risk engineering professors/[Avoid vulnerability:Unordered income]The author of the book,This paper and screening adapted from this work.translation:Xu Binbin.All rights reserved:Project Syndicate, 2012)