由于宏观投资增速还难以走出整体向上的趋势，因此机械产品2013年的总体需求可能相对平稳，同时结构差异较大。考虑行业股价前期的下滑也释放了大部分的风险，景气好转的子行业、保持成长性的公司蕴藏着良好的投资机会。

Due to the macroscopic investment growth is hard to get out of the overall upward trend,So in 2013 the overall requirements of mechanical products could be relatively smooth,Structural differences at the same time.Consider the industry's share price decline in early also release most of the risk,Boom of industry/Keep the growth of the company contain good investment opportunities.

　　铁路设备：景气回升，需求向好

Railway equipment:Boom back,Demand better off

　　在宏观经济缺乏新的增长点的背景下，从计划执行和投资的连续性的角度，2013年政府对于铁路的支持力度应不会弱化。根据“十二五”建设规划，2015年铁路的营业里程要达到12万公里，意味着未来3年每年要新增铁路里程7000公里左右，2013年铁路建设任务仍很繁重。

Under the background of macroeconomic lack of new growth point,From the perspective of the continuity of plan and investment,In 2013 the government support for railway should not weakening.According to the"1025"Construction plan,2015 railway business mileage to reach 120000 km,Means in the future 3 years each year to the new railway mileage of 7000 kilometers,2013 railway construction task is still arduous.

　　随着新线建设、通车加快，车辆购置需求向好的趋势明显。2012-2013年两年合计超过6000公里的新建高铁线路和逐渐成形的快速铁路网络，提供了铁路车辆，特别是动车组需求的弹性。

Along with the new line construction/Traffic speed up,Vehicle purchase requirement to a good trend is obvious.In two years, 2012-2013 amounted to more than 6000 kilometers of the new high speed rail lines and gradually forming the rapid railway network,Provide the railway vehicles,Especially the emu the elasticity of the demand.

　　动车组的需求可以分为两个部分，一是随着客流量增长带动的既有线路运行车辆的保有量增长；二是新的高铁线路通车，在初期的大规模车辆配置。根据在建线路的施工进度，推算2013年新增高铁营业里程为3500公里左右，假设每公里配车0.4辆，则有175标准列需求。同时，随着高铁网络逐渐成形，既有线路客流也会保持较快增长，假设既有线的动车保有量增长13%，则有146标准列的需求，合计为321标准列。

Emu's needs can be divided into two parts,One is with passenger growth is driven by the line running the future growth of the vehicle;2 it is new high speed rail lines opened to traffic,In the initial stage of large-scale vehicle configuration.According to the building line construction schedule,Calculate 2013 new high iron business mileage of 3500 kilometers,Assumptions with 0.4 per kilometer,There are 175 standard requirements.At the same time,Along with the high speed rail network gradually forming,Both lines passenger flow will maintain rapid growth,Assume that the existing car has increased by 13%,There are 146 standard of demand,Total 321 standard.

　　目前南车四方和北车长客、唐客的动车组在手订单约为370亿元，按目前的进度将在2013年上半年陆续完成交付。结合当前高铁建设进展，并考虑企业的生产周期（最快在半年左右），动车组招标启动逐渐变得紧迫，其招标规模值得关注。

At present nanche sifang and north car bringing prosperity/Tang guest of the emu in hand order about 37 billion yuan,According to the current delivery schedule will be completed one after another in the first half of 2013.Based on the current high iron construction progress,And consider the production cycle of the enterprise(The fastest around half a year),Emu bidding start gradually become urgent,The bidding scale is remarkable.

　　同时，应关注铁路改革和地方城际铁路建设领域的创新。

At the same time,Should pay attention to the reform and innovation in the field of local inter-city railway construction.

　　首先，铁路改革。一方面资金筹集是困扰中国铁路行业发展的关键问题，而融资方式扩大有赖于政企分开等基础制度的改革安排，并且通过适当的规则保证合理的回报；另一方面近两年铁道部由于突发事件不断，铁路改革基本停滞，随着新一届政府的成立，铁路改革可能会加快步伐。

In the first place,Reform of the railway.On the one hand, the financing problem is the key to the problem in China railway industry development,And expand financing way depends on the reform of the system of separating and other basic arrangement,And through the proper rules to ensure the reasonable returns;On the other hand, in the past two years the ministry of railways due to emergency,The stagnation of railway reform,With the establishment of a new government,Railway reform may speed up the pace.

　　其次，地方城际铁路建设创新。基于良好的社会效益和对经济增长的贡献，地方政府对于发展区域的城际铁路积极性较高。这是有可能率先在铁路融资方面取得突破的领域（从地方创新到中央推广，也是中国改革的传统），关注江苏沿江城际铁路等“先行先试”项目的开展情况。

The second,Place the inter-city railway construction innovation.Based on the good social efficiency and the contribution to economic growth,The local government for the development of regional inter-city railway enthusiasm is higher.It is possible to take the lead in railway financing breakthroughs in the field(From the local innovation to the promotion,Is China's reform of the traditional),Focus on inter-city railway along the Yangtze river in jiangsu province, etc"First try first"The development of the project.

　　油气设备：景气较高，国内投入加大

Oil and gas equipment:Boom higher,Domestic investment increase

　　油价是油气开发的核心指标，而在全球流动性泛滥、发展中国家油气消费提升的背景下，油价表现坚挺。Barclays预测全球油气开发投资2012年将达到创纪录的5980亿美元。对于中国，在原油进口依赖度不断升高的背景下，加大油气勘探力度势在必行，包括深水油气、非常规油气（煤层气、页岩气）等资源的勘探和利用。

Oil prices is the core of the oil and gas development,In global liquidity/Oil consumption in developing countries under the background of ascension,Oil prices firm performance.Agreed to predict global oil and gas development investment will hit a record $598 billion in 2012.For the Chinese,In crude oil import dependency under the background of rising,It is imperative to strengthen oil and gas exploration,Including the deep oil and gas/Unconventional oil and gas(Coalbed methane (CBM)/Shale gas)Such as the exploration and utilization of resources.

　　尽管中石油、中石化对国内油气勘探开发近乎形成垄断的格局，但仍有不少体系外的企业凭借过硬的产品和服务在油气设备和服务市场获得突破。

Although in the oil/Sinopec oil and gas exploration and development in the country near form the monopoly of the pattern,But there are still many system outside the enterprise relying on quality products and services in the oil and gas equipment and services market a breakthrough.

　　工程机械：需求逐渐触底，风险正在释放

Engineering machinery:Demand is touch bottom,Risk is released

　　工程机械需求自2011年下半年开始下滑以来，至今已有1年半时间，随着基数的降低，同比降幅有所收窄。

Engineering machinery demand since the second half of 2011 began to decline,So far there have been 1 year and a half time,With the decrease of base,Year-on-year drop somewhat narrow.

　　行业的经营风险正在释放。2012年二季度以来，工程机械企业普遍开始调整信用销售政策，注重回笼资金。尽管短期内将进一步削弱需求，对销量、利润会有负面影响，但企业的资产负债表将得到修复，其经营风险也开始逐步释放，有利于行业向理性、健康的状态回归。

The management risk of the industry are released.Since the second quarter 2012,Engineering machinery enterprises generally started to adjust the credit sales policy,Pay attention to add.Although in the short term will further weaken the demand,On sales/Profits will have a negative effect,But the balance sheet will be repair,Its business risk also began gradually released,Conducive to the industry to reason/The state of the health back.

　　中长期贷款作为固定资产投资资金的重要来源，其状况变化对判断实际投资需求有一定的先行指导意义。从历史数据看，工程机械销量的波动程度明显超过固定资产投资增速的变化，我们判断在很大程度上是和投资的资金到位情况有关。

Long-term loans as an important source of fixed asset investment funds,The status change to judge the actual investment demand is of guidance significance.From the historical data,Engineering machinery sales fluctuation significantly more than the change of the fixed asset investment growth,We determine to a great extent, is the capital and investment in place.

　　2011年的新增中长期贷款为35600亿元，同比减少42.2%，我们预计2012年全年中长期贷款为29500亿元，同比仍将减少17.1%，但从2012年下半年情况看，较2011年同期将有小幅增长。由于政府仍将延续目前的经济政策，我们预计2013年中长期贷款有望同比恢复增长，好于2012年的情况，从而有利于实际固定资产投资需求的改善。

In 2011, the new medium and long-term loans of 3.56 trillion yuan,Reduced by 42.2% year-on-year,We expect for the year 2012 medium and long-term loans of 2.95 trillion yuan,Will be reduced by 17.1% year-on-year,But in the second half of 2012 cases,There will be a modest growth than the same period in 2011.Because the government will continue the current economic policy,We expect 2013 years long-term loans are expected to resume year-on-year growth,Good in 2012,Which is helpful for the improvement of the actual demand of the fixed assets investment.

　　2013年工程机械需求有望呈现弱复苏。基于当年社会固定资产投资增速16%、进口持平和出口增长10%的假设，我们根据模型测算2013年工程机械行业需求将有6.7%的小幅增长，略好于2012年。

Engineering machinery in 2013 is expected to appear weak demand recovery.Based on the current social fixed assets investment growth 16%/Import flat and export growth of 10%,We according to the model estimates 2013 construction machinery industry demand will have a modest growth of 6.7%,Slightly better in 2012.

　　对于挖掘机、装载机等土方机械，其销量调整较充分，基建、制造业、房地产、采矿业等大类投资增速的下行已得到充分体现。但由于存量设备的利用率还比较低，因此土方机械产品销量的好转会是比较缓慢的，有待投资企稳的累计效应。

For excavator/Loaders, turkmen machinery,Its sales volume adjustment is sufficient,infrastructure/Manufacturing industry/The real estate/Mining categories such as the growth of investment down has been fully embody.But due to the stock of equipment utilization rate is relatively low,Therefore earth mechanical products sales the turnaround will be slow,To invest the cumulative effect of stabilising.

　　对于混凝土机械，由于2012年新开工面积下滑，导致2013年施工面积增速进一步放缓，我们预计2013年销量面临一定的调整压力。

For concrete machinery,Due to the new construction area of 2012,In the construction area of 2013 further slowdown in growth,We adjust the sales volume in 2013 is expected to face pressure.

　　2011年，三一、中联已进入世界工程机械的前10名，但与卡特彼勒、小松相比仍然有较大的规模差距。国内龙头企业在产品线齐全方面并不亚于海外企业，伴随着产品技术的提升、全球化生产销售服务体系建立，其发展空间巨大。

In 2011,,trinity/Vanda has entered the top 10 of construction machinery in the world,But with the caterpillar/The size of the komatsu compared to still have a large gap.Domestic leading enterprises in complete product line is not less overseas enterprise,With the promotion of product technology/Globalization of production and sales service system,The huge development space.

　　出口方面，工程机械出口在2011年创下新高后，2012年以来继续保持较快增长。与2008年前的粗犷发展不同，目前企业在出口方面更加主动，集中攻克东南亚、南美等区域市场，并加强服务（而不仅是依靠产品的价格优势）；同时，龙头企业还积极通过并购获取先进技术和市场渠道，进入欧洲等发达地区市场。

export,Engineering machinery exports after record highs in 2011,Continue to maintain rapid growth since 2012.Different from the rough development of 2008 years ago,At present the enterprise more actively in export,Concentrated attack southeast Asia/Regional markets such as South America,And strengthen service(Not only depend on the price of the product advantage);At the same time,Leading enterprises also actively through mergers and acquisitions for advanced technology and market channels,Into the market in Europe and other developed areas.

　　煤炭机械：需求承压，关注行业整合

Coal mechanical:Demand pressure,Pay attention to the consolidation

　　2012年1-10月，中国煤炭产量32.8亿吨，同比增长4.4%，增幅较2011年全年回落4.2个百分点。由于需求疲软，煤炭行业出现多年不见的积压现象，价格下滑幅度较大。以环渤海5500大卡动力煤为例，从年初的780元/吨降低到640元/吨，降幅接近20%。煤炭量价下跌对煤炭企业的利润和现金流影响明显，煤炭行业投资增速也从2012年1-6月的23.1%下降为1-10月的11.3%，而9-10月更是出现同比下滑。

October 1-2012,China coal output of 3.28 billion tons,A year-on-year increase of 4.4%,Growth for the year 2011 fall 4.2%.Due to weak demand,Coal industry in the backlog of missing phenomenon for many years,Price decline range is bigger.In the case of the bohai sea 5500 calories power coal,From the beginning of 780 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan/tons,By close to 20%.Coal price decline of the coal enterprise profits and cash flow,Coal industry investment growth from June 1 to 2012 of 23.1% for the October 1-11.3%,September - October and more year-on-year decline.

　　目前，煤机产品的交付延迟现象有所发生，而新签合同的付款要求也普遍有所调整，因此对煤机企业的资金构成了很大压力。部分企业由于效益不佳，对行业前景的担忧加大，我们认为未来行业发生并购等整合行为会增加，同时上市的龙头企业也将利用资金等综合优势加快市场份额的扩大。

At present,,Coal products delivery delay phenomenon happened,And payment requirements of the new contract generally also changed,Therefore to coal enterprise capital structure of the pressure.Part of the enterprise due to poor performance,Increased concern about the outlook for the industry,We think that mergers and acquisitions integration activities such as industry happen in the future will increase,Listing of leading enterprises also will use the funds, and other comprehensive advantages to speed up the expansion of market share.

　　最近两年，郑煤机(601717,股吧)（601717.SH）和天地科技(600582,股吧)（600582.SH）两家龙头企业均积极扩展俄罗斯、土耳其、印度、乌克兰等海外煤机市场，并开始取得一些突破。例如，2012年年初，天地科技获得乌克兰梅利尼科瓦煤矿改装项目合同，总金额达到5940万美元。2011年，郑煤机获得国际市场订货1.13亿美元，而2012年通过发行H股筹集资金，进一步完善海外市场布局。

In the last two years,Zhengzhou coal(601717,Shares!)(601717. SH)And heaven and earth science and technology(600582,Shares!)(600582. SH)Two leading enterprises are actively expanding Russia/Turkey/India/Ukraine and so on in overseas market,And began to make some breakthrough.Such as,In early 2012,Heaven and earth science and technology for Ukraine merry nico tile modified coal mine project contract,Total amount of $59.4 million.In 2011,,Zheng is used in the international market order $113 million,In 2012 through the issuing of H shares to raise money,To further improve layout in overseas markets.

　　择股思路

Stock selection ideas

　　我们建议投资者聚焦于需求稳定、容量较大、集中度低的细分领域，优秀企业通过产品品质提升、经营模式创新等有可能突出重围，2013年保持平稳增长，展现成为行业最终的胜出者的潜力。

We suggest investors focus on demand is stable/Capacity of the larger/Low concentration field of subdivision,Excellent enterprise through the product quality/Business model innovation may beckoning,Maintain steady growth in 2013,Show the potential of the industry become the final winner.

　　重点推荐中国北车(601299,股吧)（601299.SH，行业回暖，通过关键部件提升利润率的方向确定）、南方泵业(300145,股吧)（300145.SZ，外延扩张见成效，收入和利润增速迎来向上拐点）、陕鼓动力(601369,股吧)（601369.SH，受益于煤化工发展，秦风气体作为资源整合平台值得期待），关注中联重科(000157,股吧)（000157.SZ）、三一重工(600031,股吧)（600031.SH）、柳工A（000528.SZ）、安徽合力(600761,股吧)（600761.SH）、天广消防(002509,股吧)（002509.SZ）。

Key recommendation of north China(601299,Shares!)(601299. SH,Industries warmer,Determined by the direction of the key components improve profit margins)/The pump(300145,Shares!)(300145. The SZ,Expansion to see results,Revenue and profit growth in upward inflection point)/Shaanxi drum power(601369,Shares!)(601369. SH,Benefit from the development of coal chemical industry,Be worth to expect QinFeng gas as a resource integration platform),Focus on vanda heavy(000157,Shares!)(000157. The SZ)/Trinity heavy industry(600031,Shares!)(600031. SH)/Liugong A(000528. The SZ)/Anhui together(600761,Shares!)(600761. SH)/TianGuang fire(002509,Shares!)(002509. The SZ).