眼下的中东怎一个“乱”字了得。叙利亚的内战似乎在接近尾声，埃及又开始动荡不安起来。种种迹象表明，这种暴力骚动的下一站很有可能是约旦。也许有人会说，中东乱就乱呗，我们瞎操哪门子心。但如果我说中东的旦夕祸福将会深深牵扯到我们跑加油站的费用，想必很多工薪阶层的同志对此会颇有感触。

The Middle East how a"disorderly"Word get.Syria's civil war seems to be near the end,Egypt began to unrest up.Indications that,This kind of violence the turmoil of the next station is likely to Jordan.Perhaps some people will say that,About the Middle East is disorderly bai,We blind operation which son heart.But if I say the Middle East unexpected will deeply involved in we ran the cost of the gas station,Must have a lot of working class comrades who will quite have the feeling.

　　中东局势的动荡会极大地影响全球石油和天然气供应的稳定，与此同时，美国对伊朗的石油禁运又令问题雪上加霜。比如土耳其对伊朗石油的依赖性就相当大。根据伊朗半官方的Fars News Agency的报道，今年十月土耳其进口的伊朗石油高达7.5万桶/天，几乎占其石油进口总额的18%。伊朗稳居土耳其第三大石油供应国的宝座。美国的石油禁运因此成为安卡拉的梦魇，因为所有国家必须每六个月都降低伊朗石油的进口总额，不然的话就将受到华盛顿严厉的制裁。

The unrest in the Middle East will greatly affect the global oil and gas supply stability,meanwhile,The Iranian oil embargo and to add insult to injury problems.Such as Turkey to Iran's oil dependency is quite big.According to Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency reported,October Turkish import of Iran's oil up to 75000 barrels of oil a day,Make up almost 18% of the total amount of its oil imports.Iran in Turkey's third largest oil supplier's throne.America's oil embargo therefore become Ankara's nightmare,Because all countries must every six months reduce Iran oil imports,Otherwise it will be tough new sanctions against Washington.

　　与土耳其同病相怜的国家还有很多：中国、日本、印度、欧盟国家等等。全球经济依然在衰退的边缘挣扎，紧张的石油供应和高企的油价对许多国家的经济复苏都将是沉重的打击。还好美国不打算为了和伊朗的一己私仇而断送了全球经济的复苏，华盛顿对包括中国、日本在内的21个“好哥们”暂时免除了石油禁运的制裁，而且还表示这种法外开恩可以适时适当的延长。这样一来，这些好哥们每六个月就得去华盛顿跑一趟，向奥巴马表忠心献大礼，以期美国再次延长他们石油禁运的免责期。

Turkey and the advance of the country still has a lot of:China/Japan/India/The countries of the European Union, etc..The global economic recession is still in the edge of the struggle,Nervous oil supply and high oil prices on many of the country's economic recovery will be a heavy blow.The United States is not going to and Iran's own personal grudge ruined global economic recovery,In Washington, including China/Japan, 21"Good elder brothers"Temporarily out of the oil embargo sanctions,And also said that this kind of method to outside can be timely and appropriate extension.so,These good elder brothers every six months will need to run a trip to Washington,Obama stopwatch to loyalty offer gift,In order to the us once again extend their oil embargo of exemption period.

　　华盛顿对伊朗的石油禁运注定只是一场闹剧。没有了伊朗石油，美国打算怎么样喂饱盟国的能源需求呢？比如其盟国土耳其20%的进口天然气来源于伊朗，几乎占了伊朗天然气出口总额的90%。土耳其要降低这个总额非常困难，因为土耳其的发电需求主要依赖于此。数据显示，到2016年土耳其的石油进口总额将上升至65.5万桶/天，没有了伊朗石油，经济和人口都显著增长的土耳其将无以为继。

Washington to Iran's oil embargo destined to just a farce.No Iranian oil,The United States how to feed Allies energy needs?Such as their Allies Turkey 20% of imported gas from Iran,Accounted for almost 90% of the total amount of gas exports Iran.Turkey will reduce the total amount is very difficult,Because Turkey's power demand mainly depends on this.Data display,By 2016 the Turkish oil imports will rise to 655000 barrels per day,No Iranian oil,Economic and population growth significantly the Turkey would die.

　　面临这种挑战的国家还有很多。比如韩国虽然声称伊朗石油的进口总额已经减少了约30%，但今年十月份其伊朗石油的进口总额仍高达18.6万桶/天，而且韩国还对这个数据玩了猫腻，实际数目更高。同样，中国和印度也声称自己显著减少了对伊朗石油的进口总额，如果大家说的都是实话的话，那么今年12月份伊朗的石油总出口额将无法突破83.4万桶/天。为了买卖伊朗石油，各国可谓八仙过海各显神通，使出了高科技高智商的各种猫腻，和华盛顿石油禁运部门玩起了猫抓老鼠的游戏，其瞒天过海的精彩程度甚至不亚于007大片里的桥段。

Faced with the challenge of the country still has a lot of.Such as South Korea although says Iran's oil imports has reduced about 30%,But this year October the Iranian oil imports is still as high as 186000 barrels of oil a day,And South Korea also this data to play something fishy going on,Actual number higher.The same,China and India also claimed to significantly reduce the Iranian oil imports,If you said is the truth,So this year December Iran's oil total exports will not be able to break 834000 barrels per day.In order to Iran's oil business,Countries the situation is way,Use the high-tech intelligent various something fishy going on,And Washington oil embargo department has played a cat chasing a mouse game,The try to deceive everybody wonderful degree even no less than 007 in the large bridge.

　　由此可见，要让伊朗石油退出世界舞台只能是美国不切实际的梦想，这个日益膨胀的世界对石油的胃口已经大到没有伊朗石油就会“胃溃疡”的地步。借用毛主席的一句话，那就是美国逆天而行的石油禁运必将淹没在“人民战争的汪洋大海中”。这场猫抓老鼠的游戏中被动的注定将是猫。

Thus it can be seen,Want to let Iran's oil to retreat from the world is only the United States unrealistic dream,The growing appetite for oil in the world have to no Iranian oil will be"Gastric ulcer"point.Borrow chairman MAO's words,That is the fate and done oil embargo will drown in"In the vast sea of the people's war".The cat catch the mouse game passive destined to is a cat.

　　不可阻挡的历史潮流就是，全球石油供应的紧张程度将有增无减，大多数国家都将为保障石油安全而绞尽脑汁。比如中国的石油消费增长就不容小觑，今年十月的石油总消耗量比去年同期增长了6.6%，均值达到976万桶/天。保持这种势头的话，明年中国需要增加的石油进口额将高达64.4万桶/天，而能满足这个胃口的国家为数不多，伊朗就是其中一个。与此同时欧美的经济复苏也会大量增加对石油的需求。为了保证经济发展，各个国家对于有限的石油供应的竞争将愈演愈烈。

An unstoppable tide of history is,Global oil supply degree will grow,Most countries will to protect oil security and rack one's brains.Such as China's oil consumption growth will be reckoned,This year October's total oil consumption than last year the corresponding period grows 6.6%,Mean to 9.76 million barrels per day.Maintain this momentum words,Next year China needs to increase the oil import bill will be up to 644000 barrels of oil a day,And can satisfy the appetite of the few countries,Iran is one of them.At the same time Europe and America's economic recovery will also be a massive increase in demand for oil.In order to guarantee the economic development,Each country for limited petroleum supply of competition will be increasingly fierce.

　　在这样的情况下获利最大的将是俄国，因为美国的石油禁运将把包括中国在内的许多国家赶入莫斯科的怀抱。美国一直视普京为重要的战略对手，而滚滚而来的石油美元将使普京政权地位更加巩固，国际影响力更大。一方面普京可以大幅提高国内的福利开支，以收买人心和瓦解华盛顿所喜闻乐见的反对力量，另一方面可以通过增加对包括中日在内的亚太国家及包括德国在内的欧盟国家的能源供应来扩张在这些地区的地缘利益。这一切都将是美国所不愿看到的。

Under such circumstances the largest profit will be Russia,Because the U.S. oil embargo will put in many countries, including China, driven into the arms of Moscow.The United States has been apparent putin as important strategic rivals,And pouring oil dollars will make the putin regime and stronger position,More international influence.On the one hand Mr Putin can greatly improve the welfare of domestic spending,To buy the heart and collapse in Washington are comfortable opposition forces,On the other hand, it can increase by including the Pacific countries, including Germany and the European Union, the country's energy supply to expansion in these areas geopolitical interests.All this will be the United States is not willing to see.

　　而且石油禁运还将增加南中国海的紧张趋势。能源安全的巨大隐患将使越来越多的国家把手伸进南海，进一步挑战中国捍卫南海主权的底线。近来南海周边摩擦不断不仅与美国“重返亚洲”有关，更与能源安全的恶化有关。

And oil embargo will also increase the south China sea tension trend.Energy security the great hidden dangers will make more and more countries put his hand into the south China sea,Further challenge China's sovereignty over the south China sea to defend the bottom line.Recently, the south China sea surrounding friction constantly not only with the United States"Return to Asia"relevant,With the deterioration of the energy security more relevant.

　　石油禁运开启的似乎不是和平发展之门。在能源安全和经济生存的压迫下，这个世界曾多次走进战争的深渊。历史往往惊人地相似和重复，而我们似乎依然沉浸在零和博弈的执着中无法自拔。

Oil embargo open the door does not seem to be peaceful development.In the energy security and economic survival oppression,The world has repeatedly into the abyss of war.History often surprisingly similar and repeat,And it seems that we still immersed in a zero sum game in the persistent theirselves.