财经天象

Financial signs of

　　□本报记者 丁冰

DingBing - our reporter

　　最新公布的金融数据和进出口数据揭示实体经济呈现趋暖态势。分析人士指出，2013年非信贷融资在部分程度上将决定经济冷热。

The latest financial data and import and export data reveals the real economy present situation to warm.Analysts pointed out that,In 2013 the credit financing in some degree of economic decision hot and cold.

　　1月14日将公布2012年12月工业增加值数据，1月18日公布固定资产投资数据。市场研究人士认为，上述数据同比增速或与2012年11月持平甚至略有回落，这在一定程度上使市场对经济冷热预判的分歧较难弥合。不过在十八大之后发改委再次批准了一系列新的投资项目，若资金配合到位，经济回暖趋势将愈发明显。

On January 14, will be released in December 2012 industrial added value data,Promulgated by January and fixed assets investment data.Market researchers think,The above data year-on-year growth or and November 2012, even as a little back,In this part of the market economy to hot and cold anticipation differences are difficult to heal.But in the eighteenth big again after development and reform commission (NDRC) approved by a series of new investment projects,If money with in place,Economy picking up trend will increasingly obvious.

　　1月18日还将公布2012年四季度GDP数据。市场预计，四季度GDP有望增长7.9%，高于三季度7.4%的水平，而2012年全年GDP增速有望达到7.7%。

1 month and day will also announced the 2012 in the fourth quarter GDP data.Market is expected to,The fourth quarter GDP growth is expected to be 7.9%,Higher than the 7.4% level in the third quarter,And in 2012 annual GDP growth is expected to reach 7.7%.

　　2012年12月CPI同比上涨2.5%，高于此前市场预期。市场人士认为，本轮CPI筑底基本完成，已开始酝酿新上升周期。未来CPI真正走出上升形态或在2013年7月以后，目前只是局部的、阶段性的食品价格上涨所带动。

In December 2012, CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year,Higher than the previous market expectations.Market participants believe that,This building bottom CPI basically completed,Already began to brew the new period of rise.The future CPI really go up form or in July 2013 later,At present only partial/The stage which is driven by food prices.

　　欧洲央行和英国央行10日双双宣布，维持基准利率分别于0.75%和0.5%的历史低点不变，英央行维持债券购买计划规模于3750亿英镑不变，符合市场预期。下周，欧盟将陆续发布工业生产指数和贸易数据，在欧元区经经济衰退背景下，上述数据料难有惊喜。有经济学家认为，欧央行很可能在2013年一季度选择降息来刺激经济发展。此外，美国最近一周初请失业金人数上升，但就业市场复苏趋势仍然延续，美国1月15日将发布2012年12月核心PPI和核心零售总额数据。

The European central bank and the bank of England 10 both announced,Keep its benchmark interest rate by 0.75% and 0.5% respectively in the history of the same low,The central bank to maintain the bond purchase plan in the same size 375 billion pounds,In line with market expectations.Next week,The European Union will be released in industrial production index and trade data,In the euro zone under the background of the economic recession,The above data material to have a surprise.Some economists think,The ECB is likely to choose in the first quarter of 2013 to cut interest rates to stimulate economic development.In addition,The United States last week please unemployment compensation toll,But the job market recovery trend still continue,The United States will be published on January 15th December 2012 core PPI and core retail sales data.