国际油价连涨势头目前仍还没有消退迹象。

International oil prices rose even momentum remains still does not have subsidise evidence.

　　截至北京1月30日20:00点整，WTI油价已经冲至98美元/桶，Brent油价也冲破115美元/桶大关，再度创出近几个月来新高。

By Beijing on January 30 8 PM o 'clock,WTI prices have rushed to $98 / barrel,Brent prices also break through $115 / barrel mark,Create again in recent months to new highs.

　　“去年年底以来国际油价上涨，主要是受全球宏观经济形势改善的影响。”上海中期期货分析师李宙雷向期货日报记者表示，特别是中美两个经济大国近期主要经济数据都有向好迹象，国内股指去年底以来出现连涨，而美国三大股指目前也几乎都创下了自2007年以来的新高。宏观形势的改善令市场对全球原油需求增长有了较强预期，同时局部地区地缘政治动荡则对原油供应环节有所影响，供需形势偏紧另油价连续上行。

"International oil prices since the end of last year,Main is affected by global macro economic situation improved effect."Shanghai middle futures analyst LiZhouLei to futures daily reporters,Especially the two economies recent major economic data have signs is going well,Since the end of the domestic stock appear even rise,And the three major stock index is also almost all set a record high since 2007.Macro situation to improve the market to the global oil demand growth is expected to have strong,At the same time local geopolitical instability in the crude oil supply chain have influence,Supply and demand situation partial tight another oil continuous upward.

　　在中证期货分析师刘建看来，除了受到宏观经济向好因素的支撑外，天气、库存数据变化等方面因素也对油价有推升作用。他表示，去年12月中旬以来，下游炼厂为规避原油库税加快生产进度，导致美国原油库存连续三周大幅下降，这给投资者做多原油带来信心。同时，随着美国中东部地区进入冬季，气温下降拉动取暖油消费，也对油价形成一定支撑。“也正是在这些因素的综合作用下，这一轮WTI油价从上涨速度和幅度都明显好于Brent油价表现”。

Background in futures analyst liu looks,In addition to macroeconomic factors are undermined by the outside support,The weather/Inventory data change and other factors have an effect in oil.He said,Since the middle of last December,Downstream refinery for avoiding the crude oil storage tax to speed up the production schedule,Crude oil inventories in the United States for three weeks to drop considerably,This gives investors more confidence to crude oil.At the same time,As the U.S. Midwest in winter,The temperature drop pull heating the oil consumption,In oil formation must support."It is a combination of these factors in the next,This round of WTI prices from rising speed and amplitude are better than Brent prices performance".

　　值得注意的是，这一轮国际油价节节攀升的背后，市场投机资金的力量如影随行。据CFTC最新统计数据，截至1月22日当周，投机者购入的美国18个品种的期货和期权净多头头寸增长了11%，而这其中看多原油的持仓量更是创4周以来新高。

It is important to note that,This round of international oil prices climbing back,Market power of speculative funds such as prevalent.According to the latest statistics CFTC data,By January 22 this week,Speculators buy American and varieties of futures and options net long positions increased by 11%,And this among them see more crude oil quantity and position is 4 weeks highs.

　　投机资金之所以会选择做多原油，除了对原油供需基本面有乐观预期外，全球主要国家实行宽松的货币政策带来的流动性泛滥“功不可没”。据测算，美国前后三轮量化宽松政策约向市场注入了2.5万亿美元的流动性，同时美国、欧元区、英国、日本等继续实施了低利率政策，充足的市场流动性推动原油等大宗商品价格出现快速上涨。特别是在近期，其他货币对美元汇率普遍上涨，近日欧元对美元汇率更是创下一年来新高，美元指数的走低也从侧面支撑国际油价持续走高。

Speculative funds are chosen to do more crude oil,In addition to crude oil supply and demand fundamentals have optimistic the expected,One of the world's major countries implement the loose monetary policy bring liquidity flood"Play an important role".According to the calculation,The United States before and after three rounds quantitative easing policy to about 2.5 trillion dollars into the market liquidity,At the same time the United States/eurozone/British/Japan continue to implement the low interest rate policy,Plenty of market liquidity driven commodities such as crude oil prices rise rapidly appeared.Especially in recent,Other currencies against the us dollar exchange rate rise in general,Recently the euro against the dollar hit a record high for a year more,The dollar index of falling from the side support international oil prices continue to go up.

　　“目前国际油价已经比较高了，其累积的风险也在加大。”刘建表示，就在WTI油价连创近月新高的同时，其价格波动率已经接近历史新低。从历史规律来看，在波动率触及历史低点后价格都会有较大调整。去年9月中旬WTI油价一波大跌也正是这一规律在起作用，因此，眼下油价高位回落的风险会比较大。另外，美元指数本轮下跌，更多是欧元上涨所带来的被动下跌，眼下欧债危机只是暂时缓解，如果后期再有利空消息，市场资金仍回选择美元等避险资产，进而对油价形成压制。不过，李宙雷认为，目前宏观经济因素对油价的影响要强于供需基本面，经济复苏进程如果能继续的话，国际油价向上仍有一定空间，但也应警惕高位回落的风险。

"The international oil price has the higher,The accumulation of risks are increasing."Liu said,In WTI oil prices in recent months even and record at the same time,The price volatility has near record lows.From the historical law to see,In volatility touch history after low price will have greater adjustment.Last September WTI oil prices in the middle of a wave of crash it's also a rule in action,so,The high price of fall risk is bigger.In addition,The dollar index this fall,More the euro's rise is brought about by the passive down,Now the debt crisis is only temporary relief,If later have bad news,Market funds to return to choose dollars and hedge assets,And the formation of oil pressing.but,LiZhouLei think,At present the macro economic factors to affect the price of oil supply and demand than fundamentals,Economic recovery process if can continue to words,International oil prices up there is still a certain space,But it should also be alert to the risk of highs.