工研金融观察·2013年1月

Work research financial observation · in January 2013

　　中国工商银行(601398,股吧)城市金融研究所 上海证券报

The industrial and commercial bank of China(601398,guba)City financial research institute Shanghai stock certificate report

　　总策划： 詹向阳 中国工商银行金融研究总监

Total planning: ZhanXiangYang industrial and commercial bank of China financial research director

　　兼城市金融研究所所长

And the city financial institute director

　　课题组长： 樊志刚 中国工商银行城市金融研究所副所长

Subject leader: FanZhiGang industrial and commercial bank of China city financial deputy director of the institute

　　邹民生 上海证券报首席编辑

ZouMinSheng Shanghai stock certificate report chief editor

　　课题组成员：马素红、宋玮、郭可为、王婕

Task group member:MaSuGong/SongWei/Guo for/Wang jie

　　赵幼力、王小娥、朱妮、李露、杨荇

ZhaoYouLi/WangXiaoE/ZhuNi/LiLou/Yang grass

　　国内方面：去年12月，CPI同比上涨2.5%，较上月高0.5个百分点，物价加快回升。PPI同比环比继续维持“双负”，生产性需求依然疲软。M1、M2增速一升一降，“剪刀差”达年内最小。新增信贷创近三年最低，直接融资占比提升，人民币存款年末激增，当月资金面较为宽松。股市出现强劲反弹。

In domestic:Last December,CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year,A high 0.5% last month,Prices rebounded to speed up the.PPI up link to continue"Double negative",Productive demand remains weak.M1/M2 growth a liter a drop,"scissors"Of years minimum.New credit and nearly three years minimum,For direct financing than ascension,By the end of the RMB deposit surge,The financing area relatively loose.The stock market appears strong rebound.

　　国际方面：去年，全球经济在徘徊、挣扎及踟蹰中艰难前行。发达经济体为刺激经济增长竞相加大量化宽松规模，金融市场流动性总体充裕。今年，欧债危机或将相对缓和、全球经济缓慢回升有助于市场信心的进一步恢复，美元有望震荡升值，全球股市总体向好，金价或“前高后低”，油价将震荡调整。

international:Last year,Wandering in the global economy/Struggle along and the arduous.Developed economies to stimulate economic growth to increase the scale of quantitative easing,Financial market liquidity overall abundance.This year,The debt crisis or the relative ease/The global economic rebound slow market confidence to further recovery,Dollars is expected to shock appreciation,The global stock market overall is going well,Gold or"Former high low",Oil prices will shock adjustment.

　　1.物价涨幅继续扩大，生产性需求依然疲弱

1. The price or continue to expand,Productive demand remains weak

　　去年12月，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.5%，环比上涨0.8%。CPI同比和环比涨幅分别较上月扩大0.5和0.7个百分点，物价水平呈现加快回升态势。CPI涨幅扩大，主要是因为食品价格特别是蔬菜价格大幅上涨带动的。从环比看，当月非食品价格走势总体较为稳定，食品价格普遍上涨，菜价上涨尤为突出。全国工业品出厂价格（PPI）同比下降1.9%，环比下降0.1%。全年PPI比上年下降1.7%。PPI同比和环比数据持续数月“双负”，反映了经济下行过程中实体经济生产性需求依然疲软。

Last December,Consumer price index(CPI)Rose 2.5% year-on-year,Link up 0.8%.Year-on-year CPI and link or respectively 0.5 and 0.7% a month earlier to expand,The price level to speed up the present situation of back.CPI increase expand,Mainly because of the price of food, especially vegetables price driven.From the link to see,The non food price trend overall relatively stable,Food prices generally rise,An rise is particularly outstanding.The national factory-gate prices(PPI)1.9% year-on-year drop,Link fell by 0.1%.The PPI dropped by 1.7% compared with last year.PPI up and link data for months"Double negative",Reflects the economic descending process the real economy productive demand remains weak.

　　2.货币供应量增速小幅回落，新增信贷创三年最低，存款年末激增

2. Money supply growth dropped slightly,New credit and minimum three years,Deposit surge in the end of the year

　　去年12月末，M2同比增长13.8%，较上月末低0.1个百分点，较上年末高0.2个百分点；M1同比增长6.5%，较上月末高1个百分点，较上年末低1.4个百分点。由于货币供应量统计的是存款类金融机构的表内负债端,既未包括银行表外的理财、委存等项目,也未包括非存款类金融机构的负债项,因此其相对于流动性供给的真实程度是有所低估的。单月货币供应量增速“剪刀差”（M2-M1）缩小至7.3%，为年内最小，反映了实体经济活力在年末有所增强。

At the end of December last year,M2 year-on-year growth of 13.8%,A low 0.1% late last month,A ShangNianMo high 0.2%;M1 year-on-year growth of 6.5%,A 1% higher on the end of the month,A ShangNianMo low 1.4%.Due to the money supply statistics is deposit financial institutions in the list of liabilities end,Not only did not include bank off-balance-sheet financing/Committee save project such as,Also not include the deposit financial institutions of the liabilities,So the relative to the supply of liquidity to the real degree is underestimated.Money supply growth monthly performance"scissors"(M1, M2 -)Reduced to 7.3%,For years minimum,Reflects the entity economic activity increased at the end of the year.

　　从更能反映社会资金总量水平的社会融资规模来看，随着二季度“稳增长”政策推出，社会融资规模有所放大，全年融资规模达15.76万亿元，同比增长23%，远远高于M1和M2的增速，其中去年12月社会融资规模新增1.63万亿元，较上月多增5千亿元。

From the more social capital can reflect the level of total social financing scale to see,As the second quarter"Steady growth"Policy introduced,Social financing scale is enlarged,The financing scale up to 15.76 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 23%,Far higher than the rate of growth of M1 and M2,The last December social financing scale increased by 1.63 trillion yuan,More than a month earlier increase 500 billion yuan.

　　去年12月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额同比增长15%，增速比上月末低0.7个百分点，创年内最低增速水平。当月新增人民币贷款4543亿元，同比少增1863亿元，创2010年1月以来单月最少增量。其中，中长期贷款新增818亿元，在新增贷款中的占比为18.01%，比11月下降逾10个百分点，连续两个月大幅下滑；当月企业中长期贷款净减少154 亿元，连续第二个月负增长。当月企业短期融资大幅增长4486亿元，反映年底前企业对资金流动性需求增加。全年新增人民币贷款8.2万亿元，同比多增7320亿元。

At the end of December last year,Financial institutions RMB loan balance year-on-year growth of 15%,Growth of 0.7% lower than last month,Gen years minimum level of growth.The new loan of 454.3 billion RMB yuan,Year-on-year increase 186.3 billion yuan less,And since January 2010 at least monthly performance increment.the,Long-term and medium-term loans increased by 81.8 billion yuan,In the new loans accounted for more than 18.01%,Than November fell by more than 10%,For two consecutive months of decline sharply;The enterprise long-term and medium-term loans net a decrease of 15.4 billion yuan,For the second consecutive months of negative growth.The enterprise short-term financing sharp increase 448.6 billion yuan,Before the end of the year to reflect the enterprise liquidity increased demand.The new loan of 8.2 trillion RMB yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 732 billion yuan.

　　去年，我国社会融资结构继续改善，人民币贷款占比从去年一季度的63.3%逐季回落至四季度的36.7%。全年新增贷款8.2万亿元，占社会融资规模的比重为52.1%，同比降低6.1个百分点。与此同时，债券融资明显提速，对贷款起到了一定的替代作用，过分倚重银行间接融资的局面正在发生变化。去年企业债券净融资2.25万亿元，同比增长64.2%，创历史新高，占全年社会融资总规模的14.3%，同比提高3.7个百分点。

Last year,China's social financing structure continues to improve,RMB loans accounted for more than 63.3% since last quarter by quarter dropped back to 36.7% in the fourth quarter.The new loans 8.2 trillion yuan,Accounted for the proportion of social financing scale is 52.1%,Reduced by 6.1% year-on-year.meanwhile,Bond financing speed obviously,The loans have certain substitution,Too much dependence on the bank of the indirect financing situation is changing.Last year net enterprise bond financing is 2.25 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 64.2%,A record,Account for 14.3% of the total social financing scale,Increased by 3.7% year-on-year.

　　社会融资对银行体系的依赖程度持续下降，反映了我国金融管制放松和金融市场及金融产品创新取得一定成效。作为“十二五”的关键之年，2013年新增贷款规模有望在9万亿元左右，同时社会融资结构将从以银行间接融资为主继续向直接融资和间接融资并重转变，债券等直接融资工具有望发挥更大的作用。

Social financing for banking system depends on the continued to decline,Reflects China's financial control relax and financial market and financial products innovation obtains certain result.as"1025"Key in the,In 2013 the newly added the size of the loan is expected to be in 9 trillion yuan or so,At the same time social financing structure from the indirect financing bank will give priority to continue to direct financing and indirect financing and transformation,Direct financing such as the issuance of tools is expected to play a greater role.

　　去年12月末，我国金融机构人民币存款余额同比增长13.3%，较上月低0.1个百分点，较上年末低0.2个百分点。当月人民币存款激增1.58万亿元，其中工、农、中、建四大行当月新增存款超1.4万亿元，银行年末存款冲刺表现突出。2012 年，人民币存款的季节性波动相当明显，表现为季末银行揽储应付考核，存款回流表内；季初考核结束，存款以理财产品形式大幅流出表外。预计2013年不断推进的利率市场化和金融脱媒将会加剧商业银行负债端的压力，存款压力将压缩银行净息差，制约银行规模增长速度，倒逼银行转型。

At the end of December last year,Our financial institutions RMB deposit balance year-on-year growth of 13.3%,A 0.1% lower than last month,A ShangNianMo low 0.2%.The surge in RMB deposit 1.58 trillion yuan,The work/agriculture/in/To build four new deposit the line over RMB 1.4 trillion yuan,At the end of the bank deposit sprint performance outstanding.In 2012,,RMB deposits of seasonal variation is quite obvious,For the performance of the season bank sales store to cope with assessment,Deposit return within a table;Early end of assessment,Deposit by financial product form greatly outflow off-balance sheet.In 2013 is expected to continuously push forward the market-oriented interest rate and financial disintermediation will aggravate the commercial bank debt pressure,Deposit pressure will be compressed bank net spreads,Restrict bank scale growth rate,DaoBi bank transformation.

　　3.资金面总体较为宽松，公开市场操作发挥重要作用

3. Financing area overall relatively loose,Open market operations play an important role

　　去年12月，银行间市场资金面总体依然较为宽松，同业拆借月加权平均利率为2.61%，比上月高0.04个百分点，质押式债券回购月加权平均利率为2.62%,比上月高0.07个百分点。资金面保持宽松主要得益于：一是外汇占款的回升，当月我国新增外汇占款以1346亿元创下年内次高水平；二是财政存款的季节性投放，当月财政性存款余额较上月减少1.19万亿元；三是央行在月末加大了公开市场投放量，逆回购存量规模相应上升。

Last December,Interbank market financing area overall is still relatively loose,Interbank lending month of the weighted average interest rate of 2.61%,0.04% higher than last month,Pledge type on bond repurchase of the weighted average interest rate of 2.62%,0.07% higher than last month.The main benefit from the financing side keep loose:One is to exchange the funding of rebound,The new funding of our country foreign exchange for $134.6 billion a year high-return;The second is financial deposits on seasonal,The financial account balance is a decrease of 1.19 trillion yuan last month;The third is the central bank increased the open market at the end of the month mechanization,Reverse repurchase stock scale corresponding rise.

　　去年，在外汇占款增长趋势性下降的背景下，央行公开市场操作成为基础货币投放的主要源头。全年公开市场累计净投放规模超过1.4万亿，有力地保障了银行体系流动性的平稳。具体来看，全年公开市场共有7850亿元央票到期，未发行新央票；全年央行累计开展正回购操作9440亿元，正回购到期规模累计10990亿元，通过正回购工具实现净投放1550亿元。此外，自去年6月下旬起，央行逐步将逆回购操作纳入常态化操作以来，该项工具累计滚动投放60380亿元，累计到期55400亿元，净投放规模达到4980亿元，已成为央票到期以外的主力货币投放手段。

Last year,In foreign funding of growth trend under the background of decline,The central bank open market operation become the main source of base money issued.The open market cumulative net on the scale of more than 1.4 trillion,Effectively guarantee the stable banking system liquidity.Specific to see,The open market 785 billion yuan ticket from maturity,Not issue new central ticket;The central bank is accumulated in the buyback operation is 944 billion yuan,Positive repurchase due totaled 1.099 trillion yuan for the scale,Through the positive repurchase tool to achieve net put 155 billion yuan.In addition,Since last June since late,The central bank gradually will reverse repurchase operation into normalization since the operation,The tool accumulated rolling on the 6.038 trillion yuan,Accumulated due 5.54 trillion yuan,Net on the scale up to 498 billion yuan,Has become the main outside central ticket due money on the means.

　　今年1月，法定存款准备金补缴、逆回购到期以及财政存款的季节性上升将导致银行间市场资金阶段性收紧。在外汇占款趋势性下降的背景下，央行可能加大公开市场投放力度来缓冲资金面的局部冲击。因此，总体来看资金面仍将保持相对宽松的状态。从操作工具上看，逆回购有望继续成为未来央行精准调控银行体系流动性、引导货币市场利率的主要货币政策工具。

In January,Legal deposit reserve conscience/Reverse repurchase maturity and financial account seasonal rise will cause the interbank market funds periodic tightening.In the foreign exchange trend under the background of funding of decline,The central bank may enhance the open market strength to cushion the impact of local funds.so,Overall financing area will remain relatively loose state.Look from the operating tool,Reverse repurchase is expected to continue to be the future central bank precision control banking system liquidity/Guide the money market interest rate of the main monetary policy tools.

　　4.人民币升值预期依然较强

4. RMB appreciation is still strong

　　去年12月，人民币兑美元保持升值态势。截至去年12月31日，人民币兑美元汇率中间价为6.2855，较11月末升值0.14%。从境外市场看，去年12月，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报价持续低于在岸报价（CNY），也反映出海外市场存在人民币升值预期。去年12月31日，海外无本金交割远期外汇交易（NDF）一年期定盘价为6.3302，较上月末微贬96个基点。从全年情况看，去年人民币汇率弹性明显增强，全年升值幅度较小，阶段性走势明显。

Last December,RMB appreciation against the dollar keep situation.By December 31,The us dollar to 6.2855 the middle price,A 0.14% rise in late November.From the overseas market to see,Last December,Offshore RMB(CNH)The dollar continued the quotation below quotation(CNY),Also reflects the overseas market has RMB appreciation.Last December 31,,Overseas no principal delivery forward foreign exchange trading(NDF)One-year fixed price is 6.3302,A late last month micro those 96 basis points.From the case,Last year the RMB exchange rate elasticity noticeably,Annual appreciation smaller,Periodic trend obvious.

　　展望今年人民币汇率走势，一方面，我国宏观经济企稳回升的格局将支撑人民币升值的大趋势。较快提升的劳动生产率、国际收支顺差格局、外汇储备总量仍然高企以及中外投资收益差和利差的存在，将推动人民币总体依然保持升值态势。另一方面，外汇占款与对外贸易增速均转入低增长轨道，全球量化宽松环境仍然酝酿着不少风险，加之人民币目前已接近均衡汇率水平，因此升值空间有限。同时，随着汇改的继续推进，人民币升贬预期交替、震荡幅度加大将成为常态。

This year are RMB exchange rate movements,On the one hand,The macro economy stabilises picks up pattern will support the trend of the appreciation of the renminbi.Fast ascending labor productivity/International balance of payment surplus pattern/Foreign currency reserves are still high and Chinese and foreign investment income difference and spread exist,RMB will promote the overall situation remains appreciation.On the other hand,Funding of foreign exchange and foreign trade growth are turn to low growth track,Global quantitative easing environment still contains a lot of risk,Together with the yuan has been close to equilibrium exchange rate,So the appreciation space is limited.At the same time,Along with the remit to continue to advance,The yuan rise those expected alternate/Oscillation amplitude increase will become normal.

　　去年12月，我国外汇占款增加1346亿元，为年内次高。当月外汇占款增长较多，主要是受人民币升值、外贸顺差扩大（当月实现外贸顺差316.18亿美元，同比增长92.09%）和市场结汇意愿增强有关。

Last December,China's foreign exchange funding of an increase of 134.6 billion yuan,Seeds for years.The funding of foreign exchange more growth,Main is affected by the appreciation of the renminbi/Foreign trade surplus expansion(To realize the trade surplus of $31.618 billion,Year-on-year growth of 92.09%)And the market will increase the settlement.

　　预计今年外汇占款月增幅仍会呈现较大波动，正负交替增长的格局仍会延续。外汇占款全年仍会保持增长的原因主要在于今年我国外贸顺差还会继续，但长期看我国国际收支会趋于平衡，整体顺差规模不太可能出现大幅激增，加之人民币汇率双向波动加大、资本项目开放力度逐步增加、人民币结算规模逐步上升等因素，外汇占款增量将继续维持低增长时代。

This year is expected to increase funding of foreign exchange on still can make a larger fluctuation,Positive and negative alternating growth pattern will continue.The funding of foreign exchange will remain the main reason for the growth in China's foreign trade surplus this year will continue to,But the long run China's international balance of payments would be more balance,The overall scale of surplus is unlikely to be a substantial surge,Together with the RMB exchange rate two-way fluctuation increase/Capital account opening up gradually increase/RMB settlement scale escalation factors,Foreign funding of incremental will continue to maintain a low growth time.

　　5.A股强劲反弹，后市抛售压力较大

5. A strong rebound,Market outlook selling large pressure

　　去年12月，A股市场强劲反弹，截至去年12月31日，沪指报收2269.13点，较上月末上涨289.01点，涨幅14.6%。受行情反弹影响，A股账户活跃度大幅回暖，拉动当月参与交易的A股账户数及其占比均有所上升。去年12月，沪深两市参与交易的A股账户数为1716.9万户，较上月增加了349万户，占期末A股有效账户数的12.45%，较上月上升了2.5个百分点。

Last December,A-share market rebound strong,By December 31,Boomed at 2269.13 points,On the end of the month is up 289.01 points,Or 14.6%.Influence by the market rebound,A shares account liveness significantly milder,Pull in the trading A account number and its proportion than both rose.Last December,Shanghai and shenzhen two cities to participate in trade A account number for 17.169 million households,Last month is increased by 3.49 million households,The A shares account for 12.45% of the effective account number,A rose 2.5% last month.

　　行情的启动也使得市场开户数情况显著回暖。去年12月，沪深两市合计日均新开A股账户数20473户。其中，沪市平均每日新开A股账户数10615户，环比增加2201户，增幅为26.16%；深市平均每日新开A股账户数为9859户，环比增加2238户，增幅为29.37%。两市合计日均基金开户数为20205户，环比增加36.1%。

Market start also makes the market accounts was significantly milder.Last December,Shanghai and shenzhen two cities average total new open A account number 20473 households.the,Shanghai daily average new open A account number 10615 households,Link an increase of 2201 households,Growth was 26.16%;Shenzhen exchanges average daily new open A account number for 9859 households,Link an increase of 2238 households,Growth was 29.37%.Two city daily total fund accounts for 20205 households,Link increased by 36.1%.

　　A股市场强劲反弹与国内经济年末出现回暖迹象有关，同时，股市一系列制度改革措施施行和市场内外各方投资者的预期渐次扭转也是实现市场活跃度上升的动力。展望后市，尽管去年12月A股市场强劲反弹，但“大小非”减持规模仍创下9个月以来新高。去年12月“大小非”股东共减持解禁股份4.85亿股，创下近9个月新高。从历史数据来看，A股市场往往在反弹上涨期间引来股东减持，而2012年12月正值年末企业财务关键节点，更加重了市场的抛售压力。与此同时，市场长时间疲软后的大涨很可能激发上市公司股东减持套现的潜在欲望。

A-share market rebound and strong domestic economy appears at the end of the signs of warmer,At the same time,The stock market a series of reform measures implemented and market inside and outside investors expected the parties gradually turn also realize market is active degree rising power.Which are,Although last December a-share market rebound strong,but"Size not"Reducing the scale still hit a record high since 9 months.Last December"Size not"Shareholders to reduce their holdings of the total shares 485 million shares,Hit a record high nearly nine months.From the historical data to see,A-share market rebound is rising from the shareholders during reduction,But in December 2012 at the end of the year enterprise financial key nodes,More weight the market selling pressure.meanwhile,The market for a long time after the weak rose is likely to stimulate the shareholders of a listed company to reduce their holdings of taking the potential desire.

　　国际金融市场有利因素增多

International financial markets more favorable factors

　　1.欧债危机缓和，重债国融资压力下降

1. The debt crisis ease,ChongZhaiGuo financing pressure drop

　　欧债危机爆发三年以来，一直是全球经济复苏和国际金融市场的主要风险点。过去一年里，在市场压力的倒逼下，欧盟着手标本兼治地应对和解决债务危机，在通过资金救助和市场干预缓解短期风险的同时，还着力推进欧洲一体化进程以解决深层次问题。

The debt crisis since three years,Has been the global economic recovery and international financial market main risk point.Over the past year,In the market under the pressure of the DaoBi,The European Union to the specimen to deal with and resolve the debt crisis,In through the financial aid and market intervention ease short-term risk at the same time,Also focus on promoting the European integration process to solve the deep problems.

　　一是欧盟、IMF和欧洲央行组成的“三驾马车”与希腊新政府就债务减记达成协议，使希腊退欧风险显著降低；二是欧洲央行宣布针对重债国的无限量购债计划（OMT），降低了欧元区因“大国求救”而导致金融系统崩溃的风险，稳定了市场信心；三是欧元区在体制和治理机制改革方面取得若干进展，作为欧盟永久性援助资金机制的欧洲稳定机制（ESM）正式启动，欧洲银行业统一监管“路线图”获得通过，大多数欧盟国家签署了“财政契约”，上述措施表明在欧债危机的倒逼作用下，欧洲一体化进程有所提速。

One is the European Union/The IMF and the European central bank of the composition"troika"And the Greek government debt is written down to reach an agreement,Back to Greece had a significantly reduced risk for Europe;The second is the European central bank announced in the ChongZhaiGuo an unlimited purchase debt plan(OMT),Reduced because of the euro area"Power for help"And lead to the financial system at risk of collapse,Stable market confidence;The third is the euro zone in the system and governance mechanism reform made some progress,As the permanent aid mechanism of the European stability mechanism(ESM)Official start,The European banking unified supervision"roadmap"Get through the,Most of the countries of the European Union signed"Financial contract",The above measures show that in the debt crisis under the action of DaoBi,The European integration process have accelerated.

　　总体而言，上述举措取得了一定成效，欧债危机出现缓和，希腊等成员国退出的概率已大幅降低，危机国的融资成本明显下降。

In general,The move has obtained the certain effect,The debt crisis ease,Greece, the probability of members exit has been greatly reduced,The crisis countries of the financing cost decreased obviously.

　　从今年走向看，欧债危机已度过最危险、最困难的阶段，从“急症期”转入“慢性期”，但在多重挑战下仍存在恶化的可能：

From this year to see,The debt crisis has spent the most dangerous/The most difficult stage,from"Emergency period"into"ManXingQi",But in the multiple challenges still has the possibility of deterioration:

　　其一，政治风险仍然突出。由于财政一体化涉及成员国让渡主权问题，因此将不可避免地遭遇艰难的政治博弈。特别是2013年德国大选和意大利政局动荡，将给欧债救助政策及欧洲一体化进程带来不确定性。

one,Political risk is still outstanding.Because financial integration involving members assignment sovereignty,So will inevitably encounter difficult political game.In 2013, Germany and Italy election political unrest,Will give the debt relief policy and European integration process bring uncertainty.

　　其二，经济复苏依然乏力。经济增长是削减债务、重建信心、走出危机的根本途径，但由于经济结构改革困难、就业市场恶化、财政紧缩负担沉重、外围环境低迷，欧洲经济2013年最多实现企稳，2014年才有望明显回升。

The second,Economic recovery is still weak.Economic growth is to cut debt/Rebuilding confidence/The basic way out of the crisis,But as a result of the economic structure reform difficult/Employment market deterioration/Austerity burden is heavy/Peripheral environment downturn,European economic 2013 year most realize stabilises,Only in 2014 is expected to rebounded.

　　其三，金融动荡一触即发。希腊通过债务重组与“三驾马车”计划获取援助资金在政治上的可持续性仍然存疑；西班牙申援与否、申援时机及方式将影响债务危机演化前景；意大利风险继续累积；法国问题重重引起忧虑。

thirdly,A financial turmoil.Greek through the debt restructuring and"troika"Plan for aid in political sustainability still dubious;Spain ShenYuan or not/ShenYuan time and the method will influence the evolution of future debt crisis;Italy risks continue to accumulate;The problems of France cause worry.

　　总体而言，欧盟在推进一体化进程方面的政治意愿更加明确，并正沿着财政联盟、银行业联盟乃至政治联盟的路线前进，市场对欧元区的信心有所恢复，但危机彻底解决至少仍需要几年的时间。希腊、西班牙等欧元区重债国如能坚持财政紧缩措施，融资成本再度飙升的概率较小。

In general,The eu integration process in promoting the political will more clearly,And is walking down the fiscal union/Banking union and political union route forward,Market for the euro area's confidence resumed,But still need to completely solve crisis at least a few years time.Greece/Spain ChongZhaiGuo eurozone if you can insist on fiscal austerity measures,Financing cost soaring again small probability.

　　2.全球汇率大幅波动，美元有望震荡升值

2. Global currency fluctuations,Dollars is expected to shock appreciation

　　2012年，欧债危机走势和全球主要经济体的货币政策走向成为主导外汇市场走势的关键性因素，致使美元汇率先扬后抑，虽然全年变化率不高，但年内大幅波动。

In 2012,,The debt crisis situation and major economies monetary policy to become the leading foreign exchange market trends of the key factors,The dollar up first or after,Although the rate is not high,But years fluctuations.

　　去年上半年欧债危机的急剧恶化推动美元指数震荡升值，一路攀升至去年7月24日74.005点的全年最高点，欧债危机风险的逐渐缓解和欧美新一轮量化宽松政策推动美元趋于震荡贬值。截至去年12月31日，美元指数收于79.769点，较2011年底贬值0.51%。

In the first half of last year the European debt crisis worsen sharply push the dollar index concussion appreciation,All the way up to July 24, 74.005 points of high throughout the year,The debt crisis risk gradually ease and Europe and the United States a new round of quantitative easing policy to promote dollar devaluation tends to shock.By December 31,The dollar index closed at 79.769 points,By the end of 2011 devaluation is 0.51%.

　　在此背景下，欧元和大部分新兴市场货币在2012年对美元汇率均是先贬后升趋势，全年欧元对美元汇率升值1.79%，俄罗斯卢布对美元震荡升值5.12%，而印度卢比和巴西雷亚尔分别对美元贬值2.52％和10.09％。

In this context,The euro and most emerging market currencies against the dollar in 2012 are those first after rise trend,The euro appreciation against the U.S. dollar 1.79%,The Russian ruble against the us dollar shock to rise by 5.12%,While India rupee and Brazilian reais against the U.S. dollar respectively 2.52% and 10.09%.

　　虽然欧债危机恶化推动作为主要避险货币的日元在去年3月至8月震荡升值，但日本央行去年9月19日出台了以大规模资产购买计划为核心的量化宽松政策扭转了日元升值趋势，致使日元对美元持续大幅贬值。

Although the debt crisis worsen promote as a major hedge currency in the last march to August concussion appreciation,But the bank of Japan last September 19, the table with a big asset purchase plan is the core of the quantitative easing policy turn the yen appreciation trend,The yen against the dollar continued depreciated.

　　今年，美元整体呈现震荡升值趋势的可能性较大。

This year,Present the concussion $more likely to rise trend.

　　首先，从经济基本面看，美国经济增长前景较欧元区、日本等发达国家更为光明，有助于推动美元震荡走强；其次，从金融风险看，欧债危机在2013年仍将可能出现短期恶化，推高市场避险情绪，资金仍可能倾向于从欧元流向美元，助推美元震荡升值；最后，从货币政策看，由于欧洲经济可能陷入衰退，欧洲央行在2013年降息的可能性较大，而日本央行将可能继续加大量化宽松政策力度，美国经济复苏势头良好趋势使市场预期美联储在2013年不会再扩大量化宽松的规模，甚至有可能提前终止量化宽松，美国与欧洲、日本之间在量化宽松程度方面出现的分化将可能进一步推动美元震荡升值。在此背景下，欧元汇率将可能在低位宽幅震荡；日元或将在持续大幅贬值后出现回调，但整体仍保持贬值趋势；新兴市场经济体货币可能随着经济的不断复苏开始触底弱势反弹。

First of all,From the economic fundamentals look,The American economy is the eurozone growth prospects/Japan and other developed countries more light,Help to promote a stronger dollar concussion;secondly,From the financial risk to see,The debt crisis in 2013 will likely worsen short-term,Push the high market hedge mood,Money could still tend to flow from the euro dollar,Boosting dollars concussion appreciation;finally,See from monetary policy,Since the European economy could fall into recession,The European central bank to cut interest rates in 2013 more likely,And the bank of Japan will probably continue to increase the quantitative easing policy efforts,The United States economic recovery momentum good trend that market expectations the fed in 2013 won't expand the scale of quantitative easing,Even may terminate quantitative easing,The United States and Europe/Japan in quantitative easing degree between the areas of differentiation may further dollar concussion appreciation.In this context,The euro in wide range will be low;The yen or will be in the substantial depreciation of continuous appears after the callback,But the whole remain depreciation trend;Emerging market economies monetary may along with economic constant recovery began to sole the weak rebound.

　　3.全球股市扭转颓势，未来仍将震荡上行

3. The global stock market turn things around,The future will still concussion uplink

　　去年，在全球经济协同减速、主要经济体央行竞相宽松、欧债危机持续演化、美国财政悬崖问题陡然升温等因素作用下，全球主要股市跌宕起伏，但仍收获了不同程度的涨幅，一举扭转2011年普遍下跌的颓势。

Last year,In the global economic cooperative reduction/Major economies to loose the central bank/The debt crisis continued evolution/The United States financial cliff problem factors such as sudden warming effect,One of the world's major stock market ups and downs,But still harvest with varying degrees of increase,Every turn a general decline in 2011 games.

　　推动全球股市的逆势上涨的原因主要有三方面：一是以美联储、日本央行、欧洲央行为首的货币当局竞相实施了多轮量化宽松政策推动股市不断走高；二是美国经济数据总体表现较好，德国的经济数据总体优于市场预期，力保美国和欧洲股市的上行方向；三是欧盟以及欧洲央行的多重努力使欧债危机初露曙光，弥漫市场已久的悲观情绪渐趋平稳。

Driving the global stock market rise against the reason mainly has three aspects:One is the federal reserve/The bank of Japan/The European central bank's monetary authorities led to implement the several rounds of quantitative easing policy to promote the stock market continuously go high;The second is the United States economic data better overall performance,Germany's economic data is better than the overall market expectations,Retain the United States and European equities upward direction;The third is the European Union and the European central bank to make the multiple debt crisis dawn dew,Diffuse market already a long time of pessimism gradually stable.

　　今年，预计全球股市将呈震荡上行趋势。究其原因：一是全球货币宽松浪潮仍将持续，流动性相对过剩将导致股票作为风险资产受到重点关注。二是美国经济复苏的格局渐趋稳固导致美股盈利前景向好。三是欧债危机急剧恶化的概率大幅降低也令市场风险偏好增强。但仍需警惕多重下行风险。

This year,Global stock markets will be expected to a shock upward trend.Investigate its reason:One is the global currency loose wave will continue,Relative surplus liquidity will lead to stock as risk assets are focus on.The second is the pattern of the us economic recovery gradually stable cause us stocks earnings outlook is going well.The third is the debt crisis rapidly deteriorating probability greatly reduced also makes the market risk preference enhancement.But still need to be vigilant multiple downside risks.

　　首先，美国民主、共和两党关于“减赤”和“增税”的博弈仍将持续，这将对美国股市上行产生压力。其次，欧债危机仍面临反复深化的风险将制约欧股走强：一是德国、意大利2013大选或将对欧债危机解决前景产生影响；二是市场对“英国退欧”的忧虑与日俱增；三是欧元区重债国失业率高企，社会不稳定程度陡升。第三，日本股市需要重点防范中日关系恶化带来的对涉华企业经营造成的巨大影响。第四，新兴经济体股市则需重点警惕流动性充裕造成的股市剧烈波动风险。

First of all,American democracy/The republican party about two"Minus red"and"Tax increases"The game will continue,This will help the us stock market upward pressure.secondly,The debt crisis still faces the risk of deepening repeatedly will restrict the stock going strong:A German/Italy 2013 election or to the debt crisis solve future impact;The second is to market"British back the"Growing concerns over;The third is the euro zone ChongZhaiGuo high unemployment rate,Social instability degree high.The third,The Japanese stock market is important to prevent sino-japanese relations deteriorating bring to SheHua enterprise management of the enormous influence.The fourth,Emerging economies will need to focus on the stock market caused by ample liquidity alert sharp fluctuations in the stock market risk.

　　4.金价或先涨后跌，油价将震荡调整

4. Gold or first after a fall,Oil prices will shock adjustment

　　去年大宗商品成为各资产大类中回报最差的类别，虽然受夏季全球主粮产区大范围干旱影响，玉米、大豆等农产品曾阶段性大幅上涨50%以上，但依然未能扭转大宗商品全年的惨淡表现。

Last year commodity became the asset categories in the worst of the return type,Despite the summer global staple food production widespread drought influence,corn/Soybean and other agricultural products have periodic rise considerably more than 50%,But still failed to reverse the bad performance of commodities.

　　具体到黄金和原油价格，美国量化宽松政策和欧债危机的演进主导了金价去年全年的走势，在年初欧洲长期再融资计划、9月和12月美国推出QE3及其加强版的刺激下，黄金全年走出三波明显的上涨行情，其他时间则以下跌回调为主，年末受“财政悬崖”引发避险情绪抬头而再次小幅回升。

Specific to gold and crude oil prices,The quantitative easing policy and European debt crisis led the evolution of the gold price trend of last year,In the beginning of the year the European long-term refinancing plan/September and December the United States launched QE3 and strengthen the version of the stimulus,The gold out of the three wave obvious rising prices,Other time is down callback is given priority to,By the end of the year"Fiscal cliff"Cause hedge emotional looked up again and modest rebound.

　　而国际原油价格则在全球需求疲弱和非OPEC成员国石油产量大增的双重压力下全年呈震荡下行走势，仅在年中因伊朗核谈判等地缘政治危机升级而出现大幅反弹。截至去年12月31日，纽约黄金现货价格和WTI原油期货价格分别报收于1675.35美元/盎司和91.82美元/桶，较2011年末分别上涨8.4%和下跌7.6%。

And the international crude oil price in the global demand is weak and the OPEC oil production a year under double pressures of a concussion descending trend,In the middle of the year only because of Iran's nuclear negotiations and geopolitical crisis upgrade and appear rebound sharply.By December 31,New York gold spot price and futures price at WTI respectively at $1675.35 / ounce and $91.82 / barrel,More by the end of 2011 were up 8.4% and 7.6% decline.

　　今年，全球经济有望加速回暖，将对金价形成抑制，但上半年，特别是一季度美国两党围绕财政减支和国债上线谈判仍存在较多变数，美国经济增速和美元都将承压，从而可能再度推高金价；而下半年随着美国经济复苏加速，特别是如果美联储开始缩减资产购买规模，美元存在大幅走高可能，金价将面临下行风险。但由于全球实际负利率环境仍将延续较长时间，国际金价在当前位置也难以再现大幅持续下跌。预计国际金价在2013年将呈“前高后低”的震荡走势，价格区间约为1650-1800美元/盎司。

This year,The global economy is expected to accelerate milder,Gold will form inhibition,But in the first half of,Especially in the first quarter of the two parties around the financial order and national debt on-line negotiations still has more variable,The United States economic growth and the dollar will be confined,Thus may again pushed high price;And the second half as the U.S. economic recovery acceleration,Especially if the fed started to shrink asset purchase scale,There may be substantially $go high,Gold will face downside risks.But as a result of the global actual supportive environment will continue for a long time,The international price of gold in the current location is also difficult to reproduce falling sharply.The international price of gold is expected in 2013 will show"Former high low"Shock movements,The price interval about $1650 to $1800 / ounce.

　　对于原油市场，2013年以中国为代表的新兴经济体的经济增长将触底反弹，从而带动石油需求有所复苏。而供给方面，美国能源信息署预测2013年非OPEC国家原油产量较2012年将继续大幅提高，特别是美国的非常规能源的快速发展将使其原油产量激增，2013年的日产量将超过700万桶。加之全球工业国家原油库存较为充足，2013年国际原油市场整体仍将处于供应过剩状态。综合上述因素，2013年国际油价将小幅震荡下行，特别是上半年将存在较大下行风险，但不排除中东地缘危机突然激化导致油价短期走高的可能，预计价格波动区间为75-100美元/桶。

For the crude oil market,2013 to China as a representative of the emerging economies of economic growth will rebound touch bottom,Thus promote oil demand to recovery.And supply,The United States energy information agency forecast 2013 non-opec countries crude oil production was 2012 will continue to increase,Especially in the United States the rapid development of unconventional energy will make its crude oil production is soaring,The daily output of 2013 will be more than 7 million barrels.Together with the global industrial countries to crude oil inventory is enough,In 2013, the international crude oil market will remain in the overall supply surplus state.Comprehensive the above factors,In 2013, the international oil price shocks will be slightly down,Especially in the first half will be greater downside risks,But not eliminate the Middle East geopolitical crisis suddenly become acute lead to higher oil prices short-term may,Is expected to price fluctuation interval for 75 - us $100 / barrel.