随着近期原油市场利好消息频传，国际油价接连走高，三地原油变化率也由负转正，且正向区间在逐渐放大。对此，业内人士表示，如果国内春节假期期间原油价格仍维持上涨走势，国内成品油上调窗口节后有望打开。

With the recent crude oil market bullish news pouring in,In international oil prices go up,Three crude oil rate also from negative become a full member,And forward interval in gradually enlarged.this,The personage inside course of study says,During the Spring Festival holiday if domestic crude oil prices rising trend still maintain,Domestic product is expected to rise after the window open.

国际油价延续上涨势头 International oil prices continue rising momentum

　　虽然2月4日国际油价上行遇阻，出现回调，但在市场人士看来，国际原油价格总体向上趋势不变，回调后会重回上涨势头。“地缘政治因素以及相关经济数据是影响油价走势的主要因素。”卓创资讯分析师李倩表示，目前原油市场处于传统消费旺季，利好因素占据优势。1月初美国Seaway管道扩容以及沙特减产对油价形成有力支撑，随后中东地区动荡局势给市场带来担忧，继续推动油价上涨。1月末，美国债务上限得以延迟，缓解了市场对财政危机的担忧，加之宽松政策的继续推行，主要经济体经济数据普遍向好，国际油价延续涨势。

Although February 4, international oil prices upward pressure,Appear callback,But in the market seems to people,The international crude oil prices overall upward trend unchanged,After the callback will be back up momentum."Geopolitical factors and related economic data are the main factors of influence prices trend."Zhuo and information analysts sviri ge said,The crude oil market in the traditional consumption peak season,Good advantage factors.Early January the Seaway pipe flash and Saudi oil production to form strong support,Then the Middle East unrest to market with worry,Continue to promote the rise in oil prices.In late January,The debt ceiling to delay,To ease the market worries about a financial crisis,Together with loose policy continued to implement,Major economy economic data generally better off,International oil prices continue rise.

　　“在经济持续回暖的背景下，流动性的持续注入和市场风险偏好的回升，为原油期货价格继续上行增添了砝码。”国都期货分析师吕勇表示，虽然后期国际原油期货价格有望振荡上扬，但是受制于全球石油供过于求的压力，原油期货价格上行趋势不会太顺畅，要突破100美元/桶关口，仍需强势利好支撑。

"In the background of economic sustained progress,The liquidity of continuous injection and market risk preference picks up,For crude oil futures prices continue to ascending added weight."Countries LvYong futures analyst said,Although the later international crude oil futures prices are expected to rise of oscillation,But subject to the pressure of global oil demand,Crude oil futures prices rising trend will not be too smooth,To break the $100 / barrel gates,Still need strong good support.

　国内油价上调预期强烈 Domestic oil prices rise expected strongly

　　生意社监测数据显示，随着国际油价上行，截至2月4日，三地原油变化率为1.99%。三地原油变化率的上行对市场心态起到积极作用。

Business club monitoring data shows,Along with the international oil prices rising,By February 4,,Three crude oil rate is 1.99%.Three of the variation of the crude oil up to the market mentality play a positive role.

　　与此同时，受雾霾天气的影响，2月1日，中石化宣布今年年底前有12家下属企业的提高脱硫装置将全部建成投产，明年起全面供应国四标准油品。“中石化"油品门"使消费者开始担心全面升级油品会带来成本上升，进而致使油价上调，而上调的这一部分有很大可能会传导到消费者那里。”生意社成品油分析师李宏表示，在国际原油价格上涨的背景下，“油品门”会进一步强化国内油价上调预期。

meanwhile,By fog haze weather,On February 1,,Sinopec announced before the end of this year a dozen subordinate enterprises improve the desulfurization device will all completed and put into operation,Next year comprehensive supplier four standard oil."sinopec"Oil door"Make consumers start to worry about overall upgrade product will bring cost rise,Then the oil prices rise,And this part of the increase is very may be transmitted to consumers there."Business club product oil analyst li said,In the international crude oil prices in background,"Oil door"Will further strengthen the domestic oil price rise is expected.

　　记者在调查中了解到，目前成品油主营销售公司多数看涨后市，其中，个别主营开始试探性上推柴油价格，幅度在50元/吨左右。“不过，随着春节临近，工矿、基建企业纷纷放假停工，物流企业也陆续停工，柴油终端需求进一步萎缩。而春节假期前，汽油消费较为平稳。国内大部分地区汽、柴油价格还是以走稳为主，交投环节没有明显提振，贸易商观望情绪仍较重。”李倩说。

Reporter in the investigation to know,At present the main product sales company most bullish market outlook,the,Individual main began exploratory push up diesel prices,Amplitude in fifty yuan/tons."but,With the Spring Festival is near,Industrial and mining/Construction enterprises have holiday shutdown,Logistics enterprise also have shut down,Diesel oil terminal needs further atrophy.And before the Spring Festival holiday,Gasoline consumption is more stable.In most domestic steam/Diesel prices or to give priority to go steady,Trading links was not significantly boost,Traders wait-and-see mood is heavier."Sviri ge said.

　　根据现行《石油价格管理办法（试行）》的规定，目前成品油调价的22个工作日已满足，只需达到4%变化率即可上调。在李宏看来，若后期原油价格、三地原油变化率仍然延续近期走高态势，成品油价格上调压力将加大。“最快在元宵节后或将迎来2013年成品油价格的首次上调，预计幅度在300元/吨左右。”他认为，如果变化率涨破4%的时候正处于国内传统的春节假期，为了保障春节期间用油，2013年首次调价时间或有延后可能。

According to the current[The measures for the administration of the price of oil(trial)]regulations,At present product oil price adjustment of 22 days already meet,Only 4% rate can be raised.In li seems to,If the price of crude oil in the late/Three crude oil rate still continue to move higher in recent situation,Oil price rise pressure will increase."The fastest in the Lantern Festival or will have 2013 product oil price increase for the first time,Expected amplitude is in 300 yuan/tons."He thinks,If a broken rate 4% of the time is in the domestic the traditional lunar New Year holiday,In order to ensure the oil during the Spring Festival,For the first time in 2013 price adjustment time or delay may be.