“国五条”昨日出台 调控从严可能直接影响房企一季度的“成绩单”

"Five countries"Yesterday issued strict regulation may directly influence the room to quarter"transcript"

　　昨日标普宣布，将中国楼市行业评级由负面上调至稳定，然而正如本报昨日AII1所报道的“业内透露有调控组合拳酝酿”所言的那样，A股收盘后“国五条”出台。其中，提及要严格执行商品住房限购措施，扩大个人住房房产税改革试点范围等内容。

S&p announced yesterday,Will China's property market industry rating from negative to rise to stable,However as the AII1 yesterday reported"The industry has revealed control combination brewing"Said it,A shares after the closing"Five countries"issued.the,Mention to strictly implement the commodity housing purchasing measures,Expand individual housing property tax reform pilot range, etc.

　　虽然房企对于调控的效果依然存疑，但是专家预测，房地产调控已经出现从严的趋势，可能影响到房地产市场的成交量，从而有可能直接影响房企一季度的“成绩单”。

Although the room for the effect of enterprise control still doubtful,But experts predict,Real estate regulation has appeared the trend,May affect the real estate market turnover,Which may directly influence the room to quarter"transcript".

　　分析师表示，在政策面明朗之前，地产股或还有下调空间，但不宜过分悲观，“两会”后可再定夺。

Analysts said,In the policy surface clear before,With property or have cut space,But shoulds not be too pessimistic,"lianghui"Can decide again after.

　　本报讯 昨日A股收盘后，国务院常务会议确定了完善稳定房价工作责任制、坚决抑制投机投资性购房，增加普通商品用房及用地供应、加快保障性安居工程规划建设、加强市场监管五个方面，被业内人士称为“国五条”。其中，提及要严格执行商品住房限购措施，扩大个人住房房产税改革试点范围等内容。

Report from our correspondent yesterday after closing A shares,The state council executive meeting to determine the perfect house prices stable work responsibility system/Resolutely inhibition speculative investment purchase,Increase the ordinary commodity housing and land supply/The ensuring comfortable housing project planning and construction/To strengthen market supervision five aspects,The industry was called"Five countries".the,Mention to strictly implement the commodity housing purchasing measures,Expand individual housing property tax reform pilot range, etc.

　　

开发商：旺季难受影响 developers:Season bad influence

　　“个人觉得国五条对整个房地产销售影响不大。3月份是传统推盘旺季，我们公司预计3月份的销售量无论如何不会低于2月份。”某华南龙头房企营销部门负责人向记者表示。

"The individual feels countries five to the real estate sales the impact is not big.March is the traditional peak season push plate,Our company is expected to march sales however not less than two months."A south China leading room to Marketing Department person in charge told reporters.

　　而另一地产龙头企业的内部人士坦言，“除非‘两会’出台了具体的政策，影响到市场心态，否则不会对销量产生明显影响。”他同时表示，公司在没有出现真正销量下降之前，不可能出台打折让利等措施。

And the other real estate leading enterprise of insiders said,"unless‘lianghui’Introduced the specific policy,Affect the market mentality,You don't have obvious influence on sales."He also said,The company without really appeared before the sales volume to drop,Could not come at a discount greatly etc.

　　

专家：或出台更严厉政策 experts:Or issued more stringent policies

　　然而，房地产业内人士依然嗅到了“国五条”可能给火热的房产交易市场带来的寒意。上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭[微博]直言，“国五条”中提到要坚决抑制投机投资性购房。并要求已实施限购的城市要在限购区域、限购住房类型、购房资格审查等方面，按统一要求完善限购措施。其他城市房价上涨过快的，省级政府应要求其及时采取限购等措施。这事实上意味着限购小范围升级。

however,Real estate the personage inside course of study still smell"Five countries"May give the hot real estate market brought chill.Shanghai yi, vice President of the institute in the real estate YangGongXu [micro bo] the truth,"Five countries"Mentioned must firmly inhibition speculative investment purchase.And demand has been restricted to the implementation of the city in the restricted area/Housing type is restricted/The credentials, etc,According to the unified purchasing requirements perfect measures.Other cities of prices rose too quickly,The provincial government shall require its take timely measures such as purchasing.This actually means a small area is restricted to upgrade.

　　对于房产税，杨红旭表示，说得很明确，要在今年扩大范围，“具体城市不易预测，以一线城市和少数高房价的二线城市为主，外加湖南、湖北这种之前有准备的中西部地区或城市。”同时，他表示，接下来几天可能会有一些细化措施，“比如这两天传言的二套房贷收紧不是没有可能。”

For real estate tax,YangGongXu said,That very clear,In this year to expand,"The city is not easy to predict,With a line city and a few high house prices mainly second-tier cities,Plus hunan/Hubei this have prepared the Midwest or city."At the same time,He said,In the coming days there may be some refining measures,"Such as the two days of rumors of two sets of mortgage tightening is not impossible."

　　

若有新调控将损首季业绩 If there is a new regulation will damage) performance

　　据链家地产[微博]统计，截至2月18日，已经有54家A股上市公司发布了2012年利润预告，预亏及预减房企占比仍然占到四成以上，大型房企的利润表现明显好于中小型房企。而万科A等20家标杆上市房企1月销售合计855.32亿元，环比仅增6.42%。

According to the chain home real estate [micro bo] statistics,By February and,,Has 54 home a-share listed companies released 2012 profit forecast,Preliminary kui and preliminary reduction room for enterprises than still account for more than forty percent,Large room to profit performance was significantly better than that of the small and medium-sized enterprises room.And vanke A home for benchmarking listed room to January sales amounted to RMB 85.532 billion in total,Link only increased by 6.42%.

　　同策咨询研究中心总监张宏伟则认为，“国五条”短期内可能会影响一些开发商的销售情况和一季度利润，但“成交也不会瞬间大幅下滑。”

With the strategy consulting research center director ZhangHongWei is considered,"Five countries"In the short term may affect some developers sales and profits in the first quarter,but"Clinch a deal will not instantly fell sharply."

　　可以预计，若是后续政策真有出台，3月份楼市传统“小阳春”必将受到一定打击，房企一季度的成绩单可能不会太好看。

Can be estimated,If the follow-up policy is issued,Traditional market in March"Indian summer"By certain will blow,Room to quarter report card may not too good.

　　

三大评级机构唱多中国房地产市场 Three major rating agencies to sing Chinese real estate market

　　标普（2月20日）

s&p(2 months and days)

　　宣布上调中国房地产市场的评级，由负面上升到稳定。

Announced the rise of China's real estate market rating,The negative rise to stable.

　　惠誉（1月29日）

Fitch ratings(On January 29,)

　　预计中国住房建设活动将在2013年增长，而且2013年上半年销量同比增速可能高于下半年。

China is expected to housing construction activities will be in 2013 growth,And in the first half of 2013 sales year-on-year growth in the second half of may be higher.

　　穆迪（1月29日）

moody(On January 29,)

　　预计2013年第一季度中国房地产企业的签约销售额仍会实现同比增长。

Expected the first quarter of 2013 signing of real estate enterprises in China will achieve sales year-on-year growth.

　　

资本市场： Capital market:

　　

三大评级机构顶风唱多中国楼市 Three major rating agencies against the wind sing Chinese market

　　地产股昨翻红 对股价走势不宜过分悲观

With property yesterday turned red to stock price movements shoulds not be too pessimistic

　　周二暴跌后，昨日标普唱多中国楼市，称由于销售增强、开发商流动性改善，将中国住宅房地产开发行业的评级展望由负面调整至稳定。标普认为，今年房地产开发商从海外市场渠道拓宽，而从国内银行以及信托渠道融资的情况也不会回到从紧的态势。受此影响，万科A、招商地产(000024,股吧)[微博]以及金地集团(600383,股吧)涨幅都超过2%。145只地产股中有63家上涨。

On Tuesday after the collapse,Yesterday the s&p sing Chinese market,Says that the sales increase/Developers to improve liquidity,Will China's residential real estate development industry rating outlook from negative adjustment to stability.S&p think,This year, real estate developers from overseas market channels broaden,And from a domestic bank and trust financing channels and will not return to tight situation.Affected by this,Vanke A/Investment real estate(000024,guba)[micro bo] and ltd.gemdale corporation(600383,guba)Or are more than 2%.145 only 63 of the sector's rise.

　　不过，东兴证券分析师杨国华和东莞证券[微博]刘卓平均表示，政策收紧将是大概率事件。

but,Large securities analysts YangGuoHua and the dongguan securities [micro bo] LiuZhuo average said,Policy tightening will be big probability event.

　　但“不可能出现整体加码的情况，地产股的调整将是短期的。”刘卓平表示。杨国华也称，经济刚刚复苏，地产投资增速还在低位，目前成交结构中刚需是主流。“随着‘两会’临近，楼市政策再度进入敏感期，建议在政策明朗前，投资者不用着急抄底。”某基金公司首席分析师对记者指出。而东北证券(000686,股吧)分析师高建指出，地产调控政策“两会”期间或会明朗化。因此，他预计本轮蓝筹地产股最多还有10%左右的下跌空间。（潘彧、张忠安、周宇宁）

but"It is not likely to the whole of the pyramid,With property adjustment will be short-term."LiuZhuoPing said.YangGuoHua also called,Economy just recovery,Real estate investment growth in the low post,At present in the structure of the deal just need to be the mainstream."as‘lianghui’near,Housing policy again into the sensitive period,Suggestions in policy clear before,Investors need not worry copy the bottom."A fund company chief analyst pointed out to reporters.Northeast securities and(000686,guba)Analysts pointed out that gao jian,Real estate regulation policy"lianghui"Period or will be made.so,He is expected to this most blue chip with property and 10% drop in space.(Pan for/ZhangZhongAn/ZhouYuNing)

　　链接 link

　　今年信托公司或抢地产项目 This year the trust company or the real estate projects

　　中国信托业协会公布的数据显示，2012年全年投向房地产领域的信托资金余额约为6880.69亿元，与前年的6882.31亿元相比小幅下降。一位信托公司人士指出：“2013年信托公司会重点返回房地产项目，甚至可能出现抢项目的情况。”（周宇宁）

China's trust industry association figures showed,In 2012, the real estate industry to the trust fund balance is about 688.069 billion yuan,And the compared to 688.231 billion yuan fell slightly.A trust company personage points out:"In 2013 the trust company will focus on real estate project returns,May even have the program."(ZhouYuNing)