2012年，中国广义货币供应（M2）余额为97.42万亿元，M2与名义GDP的比值达到188%。M2存量这么大，使得央行一直被“货币超发”的概念所困扰。M2毕竟只是货币政策的中间目标，而非最终目标。判断货币是否超发，还要看最终目标，即价格水平是否偏离了实体经济。如何衡量价格？选择什么样的价格来衡量货币是否适量？随着以房地产为代表的资产价格问题逐步显现，传统以CPI稳定为单一目标的货币政策框架面临挑战。

In 2012,,China's broad money supply(The M2)The balance is RMB 97.42 trillion,The M2 and the ratio of nominal GDP to 188%.Stock of The M2 so big,Makes the central bank has always been"Currencies in excess of the hair"The concept of.The M2 after all only the intermediate goal of monetary policy,Not the ultimate goal.Whether money more,Depending on the ultimate goal,Which the price level is deviating from the real economy.How to measure the price?Choose what kind of price to measure whether the monetary amount?As represented by real estate asset prices problem gradually revealed,Traditional to CPI stability challenges as the single objective of monetary policy framework.

　　国内对于货币量/GDP高企的文献解释大体可以总结为三个方向。一是货币深化空间，转轨经济的市场化进程既可能低估GDP（特别是服务业增加值核算的低估），也会产生额外货币需求（易纲，1995），货币深化的影响在改革开放之初尤为明显。1979-1984年农业部门实行承包责任制，乡镇企业、私营企业和自由市场迅速增加，对货币产生额外需求，包括现金需求和贷款需求。1998年住房改革后，房地产市场的出现产生了大量额外货币需求。问题在于，如何准确地估算货币化进程，测算应供应多少额外的货币以适应经济中新货币化的需求，而又不至于引起通胀，这并非易事。

Domestic for money/GDP high literature interpretation in general can be summed up in three directions.One is to deepen space,Transition of economic marketization can underestimate the GDP(Especially the service industry added value accounting undervalued),Demand will also generate additional money(Yi gang,,1995),Monetary deepen influence especially in the beginning of reform and opening up.The agricultural sector in 1979-1984 for contracted responsibility system,Township and village enterprises/The private enterprise and the free market increase rapidly,Additional demand on money,Including cash needs and demand for loans.After the housing reform in 1998,The emergence of the real estate market demand produced a lot of extra money.The problem is that,How to accurately estimate the monetization process,Measure how much extra money should be provided to meet the needs of new monetized economy,Without causing inflation,This is not easy.

　　二是金融结构说。在一国交易规模既定的情况下，银行体系信用越是占据主导，M2/GDP会相对较高；反之，如果商业信用等银行体系以外的信用越发达，统计出的M2/GDP比率会相对较低。这个假说多用横向国际比较来实证，但横向比较有很多“统计陷阱”。由于国别间同一货币量指标构成存在差异（M2的成分构成国别间有时差异较大），以及各经济体金融市场的深度和广度差异，最能代表一个经济体信用供给水平的货币量在国别间可能差异也较大。比如，美国M2/GDP为什么就比德国低，有研究指出美国的M2统计低估了基于抵押的同业负债和境外美元。

Second, the structure of financial said.In the trading scale is established under the condition of a country,Credit bank system the more dominant,The M2 / GDP will be relatively high;Vice versa,If the business credit outside the banking system, such as credit is developed,The statistics of The M2 / GDP ratio is relatively low.This hypothesis is multi-purpose horizontal international comparison to the empirical,There are many but transverse comparison"Statistical trap".Because the country constitute the differences between the same amount index(Sometimes differences between The M2 to composition of country),And economies differences between depth and breadth of financial markets,Most can represent the credit level of the supply of money in an economy may be differences between country is bigger also.Such as the,Why the The M2 / GDP is lower than in Germany,Studies have pointed out that the The M2 measure understates the inter-bank liabilities and the dollar based on mortgage.

　　三是配置效率说。长期资源配置效率低下和错配，致使经济泡沫生成。此时，货币流通速度变慢，特别是在泡沫临近不可持续和已经进入破裂状态下，都会出现这种明显状况。区别在于前者会伴随通胀，而后者则可能是通缩。余永定（2007）发现，1998-2002年间中国的M2/GDP显著升高并伴随持续的通货紧缩，这个期间不良贷款在银行体系大量涌现。2008年次贷危机后，美国M2/GDP也出现了显著升高并伴随低物价，都属于此类。

Three is to configure efficiency said.Long-term allocation of resources inefficient and mismatch,Bubble formation.At this time,Monetary circulation speed is slower,Especially in the bubble near unsustainable and already in broken condition,Will appear this kind of situation significantly.The difference is that the former will be accompanied by inflation,While the latter may be deflation.Mr. Yu(2007)Found that,Between 1998 and 2002 marked increase in China's The M2 / GDP and persistent deflation,The non-performing loans in the banking system during the springing.After the subprime crisis in 2008,The The M2 / GDP, there is significant rise with low price,All belong to such.

　　在我看来，改革初期的M2/GDP可能更多从假说一、二中找到解释的依据，但中国当下高企的M2/GDP可能更适合假说三的解释框架。

In my opinion,Reform at the beginning of The M2 / GDP may be more from the hypothesis/2 find the basis of explanation,But China's current high The M2 / GDP may be more suitable for hypothesis 3 explanation framework.

　　货币量/GDP在货币数量论中的经济学涵义是货币的流通速度（倒数的概念）。某种程度，可以把货币流通速度理解成为一个经济体经济效率的指标。发达国家为什么货币量/GDP指标普遍低于发展中国家，实际上是因为货币流通速度快，其背后代表着经济效率（增长模式）较高。

Money/GDP in the economics meaning of quantity theory of money is the currency circulation speed(The concept of the bottom).To some degree,Can put the money velocity to become an economy index of economic efficiency.Why do developed countries money/GDP index is generally lower than developing countries,In fact because of currency circulation speed,Behind it represents the economic efficiency(Growth model)higher.

　　如果一个经济体存在大量的资源错配至不具备经济合理性的项目，大量错配至低效率的部门，以至于许多企业已无法产生足够覆盖利息的资产回报率。然而在地方政府竞争体制中，许多“僵尸型”企业难以灭亡，这些企业占据大量信用资源而得以存活。如此，收入产生必然变慢（宏观上为“潜在增长水平下沉”），微观上是收入速度会越来越显著落后于债务速度，杠杆会快速上升。

If mismatching of the presence of large amounts of resources to an economy does not have the economic rationality of the project,A large number of mismatch to low efficiency of the department,So much so that many enterprises have been unable to produce enough to cover the interest return on assets.However, in the local government competition system,Many of the"The zombie type"Enterprise is hard to die,These enterprises occupy a large number of credit resources to survive.so,Income generated inevitably slow(On the macro view for"Potential growth level of sinking"),On microscopic is income speed will be more and more significant lags behind that of the debt,Leverage will rise quickly.

　　货币层面反映的是货币周转速度不断变慢，货币量虽然快速上升，但经济中并不常感到资金的很宽裕（政府挤出效应），经济增长越来越依赖于新增货币的推动。在2007年，每创造1美元的经济增长需要承担1美元的债务，然而从那以后，每创造1美元的经济增长却要耗费3美元的债务。这是人们在信贷繁荣的末期所通常见到的现象，因为更多的债务被用来支撑那些低效的投资。

Currency level reflects the monetary velocity is slower,Although money rapidly rising,But don't often feel plenty of capital in the economy(The crowding out effect),Increasingly dependent on economic growth than the monetary boost.In 2007,,For every $1 of economic growth need to be responsible for the debts of the $1,However, from then on,But for every $1 of economic growth will cost 3 dollars of debt.This is people in the credit boom of the late often see phenomenon,As more debt is used for supporting the inefficient investment.

　　经济增长理论给出了工业化的一般规律，国民生产总值中资本的收入份额会随着资本回报率上升而下降。伍晓鹰（2012）计算的中国数据表明，最近十年的情况是完全违反规律的，即边际资本回报率（MPK）下降的同时，资本收入在国民收入中的份额却在迅速上升。这在很大程度上说明，是资本收入而不是资本效率在吸引投资。经济学理论已经证明，只有非市场机制的利益动机，才可以刺激投资者和生产者追求收入最大化，而不是利润最大化。所以中国过去十年（特别是2009年之后）很大程度呈现“为投资而投资”的趋势。

Economic growth theory gives the general law of industrialization,The income share of the gross national product (GNP) in the capital as the rising and falling returns on capital.wu(2012)Calculated data show that in China,In recent ten years is completely against the law,Diminishing marginal returns on capital(MPK)Falling at the same time,Capital as a share of income in national income has been rising rapidly.This shows that in the very great degree,Is the capital income rather than capital efficiency in attracting investment.Economic theory has been proved,Only non-market interest motivation mechanism,Can stimulate investors and producers seeking the maximum income,Rather than the profit maximization.So over the past ten years in China(Especially after 2009)Very much present"Investment for investment"The trend of.

　　很多研究者都有同样的感知：2008年之后，经济和市场都呈现周期短化的现象，经济对逆周期的财政和货币政策操作越来越敏感，稍微“给脚油”，通货膨胀的压力便随之而来。中国经济目前的“周期短化”的状态，可以归结为长期“资源错配”的累积导致经济潜在增长加速下沉。

Many researchers have the same perception:2008 years later,Economic and market are short cycle phenomenon,Economy of counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy operation is getting more and more sensitive,A little"Oil the feet",Inflationary pressures will follow.The current Chinese economy"Cycle short,"The state of the,It comes down to for a long time"Resources mismatch"The accumulation of potential economic growth accelerated subsidence caused.

　　如果决策者仍无法突破固有利益格局的羁绊，维稳的“拖”字诀会把有限的资源源源不断地投向那些已经失去效率的部门，来维系已经做大的泡沫，如此会造成经济效率的更大损害，加速潜在增长水平的下沉。即便新一届政府不出台类似“4万亿”的大规模刺激计划，通货膨胀的压力也挥之不去。

If policymakers are still unable to break through the fetters of intrinsic interest structure,Stability of"drag"Word tactic will reduce the limited resource flowing into the sector of those who have lost efficiency,To hold the bubble has made it big,So will cause greater damage to economic efficiency,Accelerating growth of potential sink.Even if a new government policy"4 trillion"The massive stimulus plan,Inflation pressure is constant.

　　以目前中国潜在增长下沉的状态，如果不及时“点刹”住去年下半年以来各地方投资扩张的态势，经济增长的提速和通胀（强烈预期）上升几乎会是同时出现，这一次两者之间可能不会像以前那样有一个非常从容的“时间差”。

At the current state of China's potential growth sink,If not in time"DianCha"Live in the local investment expansion trend since the second half of last year,Economic growth acceleration and inflation(Strong expectations)Rose almost will appear at the same time,This time between the two may not like before there is a very leisurely"Time difference".

　　很多研究会谈到中国货币量/GDP高企的责任问题，这是一个很敏感的话题。“货币超发”这个表述或许是不那么准确的。所以我一般表述用一个更中性的词：货币失控，这样歧义会少很多。以上的讨论中大家其实已经看到，这是个经济模式问题。更专业的讨论还会涉及货币是外生还是内生的。这个问题笔者这些年文章很多部分都讲到过，比方说“财政决定货币”等等。

A lot of research about Chinese currency/GDP high responsibility,This is a very sensitive topic."Currencies in excess of the hair"This statement may be not so accurate.So my general description with a more neutral word:Money is out of control,This ambiguity can be much less.We actually have seen in the discussion of above,This is a matter of economic model.More professional discussion will involve money is exogenous or endogenous.This problem the author over the years a lot of parts are described,For example,"Currency financial decisions"And so on.

　　我的一个体悟是，西方经济建立中央银行制的精要是以政府债务为基础建立货币发行机制，而政府债务的约束机制恰恰是现代国家的预算制度。而我们常说中国央行没有应有的独立性，中国货币失控的根源其实就是预算软约束。这样看来，硬化约束将是未来中国最迫切的任务之一。

One of my gown up is,Western economic building central YinHangZhi is the essence of government debt on the basis of establish a mechanism for the currency,Constraint mechanism and government debt budget system is a modern countries.And we often say that China's central bank is not independence,The root cause of China's currency is out of control is the soft budget constraint.In this regard,Sclerosis constraint is one of China's most urgent task in the future.