全球失衡与汇率操控 Global imbalances and currency manipulation

　　CF40：2007以来，金融危机成为人们关注的焦点，您认为国际金融危机的主要原因是什么？您如何评论“中国导致全球失衡、全球失衡导致金融危机”这样的观点？

CF40:Since 2007,The financial crisis become the focus of attention,In your opinion, what is the main cause of the international financial crisis?How do you comment on"China lead to global imbalances/Global imbalances caused the financial crisis"This idea is?

　　亚当·珀森：我在这个问题上属于美国的少数派，我并不认为是中国或其它全球性事件导致了金融危机。危机的根源在于美、英等西方国家金融体系监管的失败，失败的主要原因是金融自由化过度、腐败和银行业务超规。

Adam posen,:I belong to the minority in the United States on this issue,I don't think that is Chinese, or other events led to the global financial crisis.The root of the crisis is that beauty/Britain and other western countries financial system regulation failure,Failure is the main reason for the excessive financial liberalization/Corruption and banking regulations.

　　危机的导火索埋于2000年，从那时起，美国监管体系不断放松。如果说刚开始放松管制是因为之前的管制过于严厉，那么美国在这条路上是走得过远了：过高的财政赤字、次级抵押贷款和资产证券化过程中的错误定价相继出现，像房利美这样的公司之前对美国经济贡献很大，但随着其业务向新的领域拓展，就出现了管制缺口。

Crisis triggered by buried in 2000,From then on,Relax the U.S. regulatory system.If the first deregulation is because before the regulation is too strict,So the United States on this road is going too far:High budget deficits/Subprime mortgages and mispricing appeared in the process of asset securitization,Before companies like fannie mae has contributed a lot to the American economy,But with its business expansion into new areas,Controls in the gap.

　　中国和世界范围内的失衡只不过加重了危机而已，因为资金持有者希望找到安全和高回报的投资机会，而这样的机会十分缺乏。诚然，这样的投资需求加重了危机，但危机的根源是银行的监管不力，是银行体系的危机。

China and the world within the scope of the imbalances only exacerbated the crisis,Because capital owners hope to find safety and a high return investment opportunities,This opportunity is very lack.It is true,Such investment demand exacerbated the crisis,But the crisis is the root cause of the weak supervision of the bank,Is the crisis in the banking system.

　　CF40：候任美国财政部长Jacob Lew最近声称，如果他的任命得以通过，“处理中国的汇率问题将是最优先事项”。PIIE一向在人民币汇率问题上对于美国政府有着巨大的影响力。作为PIIE的新领导，您在这个问题上对于美国政府有什么建议？您如何看待对于中国操纵汇率的指责？

CF40:Incoming us Treasury secretary, Jacob Lew said recently,If his appointment through,"Dealing with China's exchange rate will be the most priority".PIIE has always been on the issue of RMB exchange rate for the U.S. government has a huge influence.The PIIE new leadership,Do you have any advice for the U.S. government on this issue?How do you think to accuse China of manipulating its currency?

　　亚当·珀森：当前中国的汇率关系已经发生了根本性改变，这从工资水平、财富水平和经常账户盈余等方面都可以看出来。这种变化对于中国、美国乃至全世界都是有益的。因此，美国和中国在这一问题上的紧张程度可能会有所下降。

Adam posen,:Radical changes have taken place in the current relationship between China's exchange rate,This from the level of wages/Wealth levels and current account surpluses, etc can all see it.The change in China/America and the world would be beneficial.so,The United States and China on the issue of stress levels may fall.

　　美国财政部当前关注的主要问题不是汇率，而是中国的行为。在谈论中国问题时，经常用到的词语是“操纵”。我同事Joseph Gagnon 的研究表明，政府直接实行货币干预会影响贸易盈余。所以，无论是中国、美国还是日本，在实行货币政策时，都应该针对国内而不是国外。当中国采取货币政策时，如果是基于控制国内通胀和确保经济平稳增长的目的，即使影响了汇率也是情有可原的；但如果中国政府只是出于增加贸易余额而干预汇率，而忽略了国内的通胀水平，就不合情理了。

The U.S. Treasury Department at present the main focus of the problem is not the exchange rate,But China's behaviour.When talking about China issues,Words are often used"Manipulation of".My colleague Joseph Gagnon study,Government direct currency intervention affect the trade surplus.so,Whether it is in China/The United States or Japan,When monetary policy is implemented,Should be aimed at the domestic rather than foreign.When China's monetary policy,If it is based on the purpose of controlling domestic inflation and ensure steady economic growth,Even influence the exchange rate is also understandable;But if just for the Chinese government increase the balance of trade and currency intervention,While ignoring the domestic inflation,It doesn't make sense.

　　这一观点在上周的G20峰会上也得到了认可，即美、中、日等国的汇率水平不是主要问题，主要问题在于是否某个国家通过货币攻击，以别人的损失为代价实现自身的增长。我认为近年来中国政府这方面的倾向较早先有很大缓和，但中美双方仍然需要就这一问题进行磋商。G20峰会上，美国提出如果诸如中国、美国、日本、英国乃至俄罗斯这样的国家通过牺牲他国利益来实现自身增长的话，各国应向其施加负面压力。总而言之，我不同意美国财政部有些人的想法，我认为不应关注一个国家的汇率水平，而应关注一个国家汇率政策的意图。

This view in last week's G20 summit also got approval,That is beautiful/In the/In countries such as the exchange rate level is not the main problem,Main question is whether a country through currency attacks,Realizing their own growth at the expense of others.I think the Chinese government in recent years this tendency has a lot to ease more earlier,But the two sides still need to discuss this.The G20 summit,If the United States such as China/The United States/Japan/Country such as Britain and Russia by sacrificing other countries' interests to achieve their own growth,All countries should negative pressure is applied to.To sum up,I don't agree with the U.S. Treasury Department some ideas,I think should not focus on a country's exchange rate,And should focus on a country's exchange rate policy intentions.

　　CF40：如今中国的外汇储备已经在一年多的时间里保持基本稳定，央行的干预也大幅减少。这是否意味着中国的汇率市场化已经基本完成？人民币汇率是否接近均衡水平？

CF40:Now China's foreign exchange reserves have on more than a year of time to keep basic stability,The central bank's intervention also dramatically reduced.Does this mean that the marketization of China's currency has been basically completed?Whether the RMB exchange rate close to the equilibrium level?

　　亚当·珀森：我和我的同事们一直关注这个问题，但我们认为人民币汇率均衡水平究竟是多少，很难确定。可以明确的是，五年前的人民币币值是严重低估的，汇率失衡和通胀水平均十分严重。当前，我们确信中国的汇率水平已比之前大大接近均衡水平，这点从许多经济数据中也可看出，这是好现象。放松管制、汇率水平接近均衡、国内通胀水平稳定，这些都是同步发生的。但即使人民币汇率自由化已接近尾声，这毕竟还只是利率自由化和金融自由化的一小步，中国的资本市场改革还有很长的路要走。

Adam posen,:My colleagues and I always pay close attention to this problem,But we think the renminbi exchange rate equilibrium level exactly how many,It is difficult to determine.Can be clear,Five years ago, the yuan is significantly undervalued,Currency imbalances and inflation is very serious.The current,We are sure that China's exchange rate has greatly close to equilibrium level than before,It also can see from the many economic data,This is a good phenomenon.deregulation/Exchange rate is close to equilibrium/Domestic inflation is stable,These are synchronised.But even if the RMB exchange rate liberalization is nearing an end,It is just a small step of interest rate liberalization and financial liberalization,China's capital market reform is still a long way to go.

　　量化宽松引发货币战争？ Quantitative easing (qe) trigger a currency war?

　　CF40：在美国访问期间，很多学者谈到了量化宽松对发展中经济体的影响，对此，您持怎样的观点？

CF40:During the visit in the United States,Many scholars talked about quantitative easing effect on developing economies,For this,What is your concept?

　　亚当·珀森：这一问题上，我和美联储的官员们持同样观点，尽管这一观点属于少数人。我们认为，当前美国量化宽松向发展中国家的溢出效应与美联储降低利率的影响是相同的。量化宽松无非是给韩国和巴西等国家抱怨的把柄罢了。

Adam posen,:On the issue,I and the federal reserve officials take the same view,Although this view belong to the minority.We believe that,The current U.S. quantitative easing spillover effects to developing countries and the influence of the federal reserve cut interest rates are the same.Quantitative easing is nothing more than to countries such as South Korea and Brazil complain about something.

　　现实角度讲，美国当前的短期经济增长较为缓慢，长期经济在世界中的占比也在下降，这意味着短期内美国需要通过货币途径重回正常增长，长期内各国的货币总体上应该对美元升值。所以，中国、巴西、韩国和澳大利亚等国的货币对美元升值是必然的，因为无论短期还是长期，这些国家的发展速度都高于美国。

Realistic point of view,Current U.S. short-term economic growth is relatively slow,The descent of the economy for a long time in the world of,This means that in the short term, America needs to return to normal growth through monetary channels,In the long term national currencies in general should be against the dollar.so,China/Brazil/Countries such as South Korea and Australia's currency against the dollar is inevitable,Because no matter short term or long term,The growth in these countries are higher than the United States.

　　所以，各国政府对量化宽松的微词毫无道理，其本国货币升值可以帮助这些国家控制通胀。相反，控制币值上升只能引火烧身，会导致这些国家自身的通货膨胀和资产泡沫。

so,Governments to quantitative easing (qe) of the unreasonable,The domestic currency appreciation can help control inflation in these countries.instead,Control currency rise will only backfire,Can lead to its inflation and asset bubbles in these countries.

　　CF40：当前美国宽松的货币政策会不会导致新一轮世界范围内的经济危机？

CF40:Current us loose monetary policy will not lead to a new round of worldwide economic crisis?

　　亚当·珀森：正如上面所说，美国经济危机是银行监管缺失而非货币政策过于宽松所致，所以，当前宽松的货币政策不太可能引发进一步的危机。反而应该担心的是美国货币政策促进经济增长的有效性，即货币政策失效的风险。

Adam posen,:As is said above,The U.S. economic crisis is caused by a lack of bank regulation rather than monetary policy was too loose,so,The current loose monetary policy is unlikely to trigger a further crisis.It should worry about is the effectiveness of monetary policy to promote economic growth,The monetary policy risk of failure.

　　目前，世界范围内还有一些国家，其私人资本多处于闲置状态，大量的私人和企业储蓄放在银行或用于购买国债，而没有进行有效的投资。量化宽松及积极的财政政策在于鼓励这些资金重新进入资本市场。从这个角度说，我们还未取得成功，但也有迹象表明一切正在好转。

At present,There's still some countries in the world,The idle private capital,A large number of private and corporate savings in Banks or used to buy national debt,Without effective investments.Quantitative easing and a proactive fiscal policy is to encourage these funds back into the capital market.From that perspective,We are not successful,But there are signs that all is getting better.

　　所以，当前的货币政策只有两种可能：适度宽松和不够宽松，不会出现过于宽松的情况。纵观世界，像匈牙利、土耳其及一些拉美的经济危机国家，他们的银行监管与危机之前的美国存在相同的弊端，而并非是货币导致了危机。

so,The current monetary policy only two possibilities:Moderately loose and not loose enough,There will not be too loose.Throughout the world,As Hungary/Turkey and some Latin American countries of the economic crisis,Their bank regulation and have the same disadvantages before the crisis of the United States,Is not money led to the crisis.

　　CF40：货币战争这个概念如今在全球和中国都很流行。在您看来，现在是否存在货币战争？如何看待量化宽松和货币战争之间的关系？

CF40:Currency war this concept in global and China are very popular now.In your opinion,Now if there is a currency war?How quantitative easing and the relationship between the currency war?

　　亚当·珀森：首先从“战争”的定义分析，参考上世纪80年代苏联和北约的冷战，这并非实际意义上的战争，因为没有人开过枪，也没有发生领土的变化。美国可能以牺牲别国利益为代价重振本国制造业，中国也可能以牺牲别国利益为代价实现出口增长，但都并非战争，因为没有货币市场干预或购买他国货币强迫其升值的行为。无论是人民币升值还是美元贬值，都是平稳的。美国在贬值过程中没有刻意抬高任何他国货币。日本自新一届政府上任以来，曾威胁要大量购买美元资产以实现日元对美元贬值，但已经被予以警告。之后日本政府也公开表示不会刻意操控汇率。之前G7和G20峰会上也就此类问题达成了共识。

Adam posen,:First of all, from the"The war"The definition of the analysis,Reference of the cold war in the 1980 s the Soviet union and NATO,This is not a real sense of the war,Because no one had a gun,No territorial changes.United States may at the expense of the interests of other countries to revive domestic manufacturing,China may also be at the expense of the interests of other countries to achieve export growth,But all is not a war,Because there is no currency market intervention or purchase other countries to force the currency appreciation.Both the appreciation of the renminbi and the dollar,Are smooth.The United States in the process of depreciation does not deliberately raise any other countries' currencies.Japan from the new government took office,Threatened to large purchases of dollar assets in order to realize the yen to the dollar,But has been alerted.After the Japanese government also said publicly that they will not intentionally manipulating its currency.The G7 and before the G20 summit also reached a consensus on these issues.

　　之前IMF和G20都认为大国经济稳定发展对全球经济稳定有积极作用，而美、日、欧的量化宽松政策正是为了这些国家的经济稳定发展。这些措施或许在短期看会对汇率产生影响，但其长期收益远大于短期成本。量化宽松政策并不会被各国政府认为是故意的货币战争行为。

Before the IMF and the G20 agreed economic stable development on global economic stability has a positive role,And beauty/day/Europe's quantitative easing is to the stable development of the country's economy.These measures in the short term may influence on the exchange rate,But the benefits far outweigh the short-term costs for a long time.Quantitative easing is not considered by governments as deliberate currency war.

　　货币政策的立足点 The standpoint of monetary policy

　　CF40：在各国竞相贬值的大潮中，有没有一个国家的货币会出现升值？如果有，是哪个国家？

CF40:In the tide of national competitive devaluations,Is there a country's currency appreciation appears?If you have,Which country is?

　　亚当·珀森：各国面临三种选择：一是所有发达国家贬值，通过宽松货币政策促进经济增长。二是取决于中国央行的货币政策是松是紧，如果采取宽松货币政策，会带来一系列反应；如果央行出于房地产市场过热和产能过剩考虑收紧货币，会带来另一系列反应。第三是各国同时收紧货币政策。究竟采取哪种选择，取决于各国自身。从安全角度讲，货币政策的选择没有固定方向，全凭经济走势和各国国情；从全球角度讲，美、日等国的经济发展较中国缓慢，长期来看人民币必然会对这些货币升值，不是采取何种货币政策就能改变的。

Adam posen,:Countries faced with three options:A devaluation is all developed countries,By easing monetary policy to promote economic growth.2 it is depends on the people's bank of China monetary policy is loose is close,If you take loose monetary policy,Will bring a series of reactions;If the central bank of the real estate market overheating and consider tightening monetary excess capacity,Will bring another series of reactions.The third is the countries to tighten monetary policy at the same time.Whether to adopt what kind of choice,Depend on their own.From a security point of view,The choice of monetary policy has no fixed direction,By sheer economic situation and national conditions;From a global perspective,beauty/Day in countries such as China's economic development is slow,In the long run will inevitably to the currency to rise. The,Not what monetary policy can change.

　　如果各国都采取宽松货币政策，虽然会成为一种全球事件，但货币政策的取向仍然是各国自身的问题。当初我在英格兰银行工作时，英镑币值一直很稳定，但没有人因为要改变币值而采取特定的货币政策。所有货币政策的立足点都是国内的经济状况和企业经营状况，每个国家都在做着自己认为正确的事情。从全球角度来说，这也有道理，如果各大经济体货币都贬值，那么货币自然就会流向小国，如巴西、澳大利亚、挪威等，这些国家就会面临资产价格上扬。因此，各国的自身选择和全球性大局之间并不存在矛盾。

If countries are to take looser monetary policy,Although will become a global event,The orientation of monetary policy continues to be a problem itself.When I work in the bank of England,Sterling has been a steady value,But because no one want to change the currency for a specific monetary policy.All the foothold of monetary policy is the domestic economic and business conditions,Every country is doing what he thinks is right.From a global perspective,It also makes sense,If major economies' currencies have depreciated,That money will flow to the small country,Such as Brazil/Australia/Norway etc.,These countries will face asset prices.so,Their choice of all countries and there is no contradiction between global situation.

　　CF40：在金本位刚结束时，各国货币都在相对黄金贬值。如果各国都实行量化宽松，是不是可以得出一个结论，即各国之间的相对汇率均维持不变呢？如果是这样，各国宽松货币政策的效力就会大打折扣。

CF40:At the end of the gold standard,Currencies are relatively gold in value.If countries are quantitative easing,If I can draw a conclusion,The relative exchange rates between countries are remain unchanged?If this is the case,The loose monetary policy effectiveness will be discounted.

　　亚当·珀森：您说的不无道理，但与历史经验有一定出入。过去几年来，美、英之间，美元稍显贬值，对英经常账户余额也有所增加。但我们衡量美国量化宽松政策的主要立足点是美国国内经济。在美元贬值过程中，我们看到美国房地产市场逐渐复苏，银行系统坏账也得到了一定程度的清除。这些均是美国国内的形势，与对外贸易无关。再看英国，形势急转直下，我们认为有可能是宽松政策没有起效。所以各国同时采取宽松货币政策时，可能遭殃的是小国，对于美国、中国这样的大型经济体，或英国、日本这样的中型经济体，不会出现徒劳无功的情况。

Adam posen,:You have said makes sense,But experience has some discrepancy with history.Over the past few years,beauty/Between the,Slightly dollar depreciation,On the current account balance is increased.But we measure the quantitative easing of America main foothold is the domestic economy.In the process of value of the dollar,We see America's housing market recovery,The banking system of bad also got a certain degree of clearance.These are the domestic situation,Has nothing to do with foreign trade.Look at the UK,The situation plummet,We don't think may be easing effect.So countries take the loose monetary policy at the same time,May suffer is a small country,For the United States/Large economies like China,Or the UK/Medium-sized economies like Japan,There will not be in vain.