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如何深化亚洲区域金融稳定机制--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2013-03-14

  亚洲金融危机后,东盟与中日韩(简称“10+3”)的金融合作启动并不断推进。其中,尤为引人注目的是,以促进东亚国家相互救助为目的、以双边货币互换为主要内容的清迈倡议(CMI)及后来区域储备库的建立(CMIM,清迈倡议多边化)。随着欧洲主权债务危机的演进和欧洲稳定机制(ESM)的推出,亚洲区域金融稳定机制建设的意义更为突出。在这种形势下,2012年,该区域金融稳定机制建设取得明显进展。但一方面,亚洲区域储备库建设本身仍有诸多方面需进一步完善;另一方面,区域储备库毕竟仅是整个金融稳定机制和安全网的单一方面,仍需要与双边及全球层面的机制有效配合。

After the Asian financial crisis,The association of southeast Asian nations (asean) and China, Japan and South Korea(Hereinafter referred to as"The 10 + 3")Financial cooperation is up and moving forward.Among them,Particularly striking is,In order to promote east Asian countries help each other for the purpose/Bilateral currency swap as the main content of the Chiang mai initiative(The CMI)And then the establishment of a regional stockpile(The CMIM,The Chiang mai initiative multilateralization (cmim)).With the evolution of the European sovereign debt crisis and the European stability mechanism(The ESM)The launch of the,Asian regional financial stability mechanism of the construction of the meaning is more outstanding.In this situation,In 2012,,Remarkable progress was made in the construction of regional financial stability mechanism.But on the other hand,Asian regional reserve itself, there are still many aspects need to be further perfected;On the other hand,Regional reserve after all is only a single aspect of the whole financial stability mechanism and safety net,Still need to cooperate effectively with the mechanism of bilateral and global level.

  CMIM最新进展 Recent advances in the The CMIM

  本次国际金融危机推进了清迈倡议的多边化进程。2010年,区域储备库正式成立;2011年,相关决策程序被确立下来,并成立宏观经济研究办公室(AMRO)作为监督机构。2012年,多边化进程又有多方面的新突破。

The international financial crisis pushed to the Chiang mai initiative multilateralization process.In 2010,,Regional reserve was formally established;In 2011,,Related decision-making process was established,Macroeconomic research office and set up(AMRO)As a watchdog.In 2012,,And new breakthrough in many ways the multilateral process.

  宏观经济研究办公室于2012年1月31日正式成立运作。AMRO的主要任务是监测和分析区域经济、加强风险早期跟踪、迅速实施救援行动和实现区域储备库的有效决策。该机构首任主任是原中国外管局副局长魏本华先生,他负责了整个筹备过程和初始运行。2012年5月后,接替他的是原日本财务省副相。目前,则有三位高级经济学家分别负责该机构中财政、货币与汇率、金融市场三个小组的研究工作。自成立以来,该机构按季度发表了相关研究报告。

Macroeconomic research office in January 31, 2012 formally established.AMRO is the main task of the regional economic monitoring and analysis/Strengthen risk early tracking/Rapid implementation of rescue operations and realize regional stockpile of effective decision making.Is the agency's first director of the original Mr Mr Wei, vice minister of China's safe,He is responsible for the preparation process and the initial operation.In May 2012,He will be replaced by former Japanese finance ministry deputy phase.At present,Has three senior economist respectively responsible for the financial institutions/Monetary and exchange rate/Three groups of financial markets research work.Since its establishment,The agency published related research report quarterly.

  “10+3”财长会议机制转变为“10+3”财长与央行行长会议机制。从2012年5月的第15次“10+3”财长会议开始,该机制转变为“10+3”财长与央行行长会议机制。此前,“10+3”机制下的金融合作以财长为主导,央行只能参加副手会议和相应的工作会议。在金融危机演进时期,讨论金融合作问题缺少央行的积极参与是不现实的,效果也将有限。从初期的“七国集团”到现在的“二十国集团”,都一直延续财长与央行行长的会议机制。具体到本区域的金融合作机制方面,区域储备库的管理、宏观经济政策的协调等都需要央行的积极参与,央行专业资源的加入将大大提升合作的深度与广度。

"The 10 + 3"Into a finance ministers' meeting mechanism"The 10 + 3"Finance ministers and central bank governors meeting mechanism.From 2012 on May 15th"The 10 + 3"Finance ministers' meeting started,Into the mechanism"The 10 + 3"Finance ministers and central bank governors meeting mechanism.after,"The 10 + 3"Dominated by finance minister under the mechanism of financial cooperation,Central bank can only to attend deputies and the corresponding work meeting.In the evolution of the financial crisis period,Discuss financial cooperation lack of active participation by the central bank is not realistic,Effect will be limited.From the beginning"The group of seven"To the present"The group of 20 nations",All continue meeting of finance ministers and central bank governor mechanism.Specific to the regional financial cooperation mechanism,Regional reserve management/Coordination of macroeconomic policy and so on all need the central bank's active participation,Central bank of professional resources to join would enhance cooperation in depth and breadth.

  区域储备库规模增加,与IMF脱钩比例提高,危机预防功能得到增强。2012年5月的财长与央行行长会议宣布:一是将储备库规模增加1倍,即由原有的1200亿美元增加到2400亿美元。二是与IMF的脱钩比例在2012年由原来的20%提高到30%,到2014年视情况推进提高到40%。三是延长融资期限,将与IMF条件挂钩的部分融资期限由原来的90天延长至1年,并按照原来期限续期3次,实际支持期限由原来的两年改为3年,同时,将与IMF条件脱钩的部分融资期限由原来的90天延长到6个月,实际支持期限由来的1年延长到2年。四是创设具有危机防范功能的危机预防安排——区域储备库预防安排(CMIM-PL),原有的危机救助安排则被称为区域储备库金融稳定设施(CMIM-SF)。预防信用额度由区域储备库决策机构的执行层,根据如下五方面因素灵活考虑采用事前的资格或是事后的条件,即外部头寸状况与在金融市场融资的可能性、财政政策、货币政策、金融部门的稳健性、监管和数据的充分性。

Regional reserve scale increase,With the IMF decoupling ratio increased,Crisis prevention function.In May 2012, the finance ministers and central bank governors meeting declared:Will reserve scale by a factor of 1,The increased from the original $120 billion to $240 billion.Second, with the IMF's decoupling ratio in 2012 from 20% to 20%,Depending on the situation advance up to 40% by 2014.3 it is to extend financing,Will be linked to the IMF's conditions with part of the financing period of 90 days to 1 year,And in accordance with the original deadline be renewed three times,Practical support period from original two years to three years,At the same time,Will work with the IMF conditions with decoupling of a part of the financing period of 90 days to 6 months,The actual support period from 1 year to 2 years.Four is created which has the function of crisis prevention crisis preventing arrangements, regional reserve arrangement(The CMIM - PL),Original crisis rescue arrangements are referred to as the regional financial stability facility repertory(The CMIM - SF).Prevention of credit by the regional reserve executive decision-making body,According to the following five factors considering prior qualifications or conditions after the event,The external positions and the possibility of financial markets/Fiscal policy/Monetary policy/The financial sector's robustness/Regulation and the adequacy of the data.

  此次会议规定的预防安排提款期为6个月,可以续期3次,从而使整个提款期最长达2年,每两年审查一次。既然对预防安排有提款期的设计,相应地要求用款国交纳0.15%的承诺费。非挂钩部分和挂钩部分的贷款期限分别为6个月和1年。同时还规定,任一成员体都可以灵活选择这两种安排,但总额不得突破对该国的最高限额,并严格限制两种安排的同时使用。一旦执行机构认为某一接受国已经面临危机冲击并需要额外支持,就应当以金融稳定设施来替代预防设施。区域金融稳定机制由单纯的危机后救助提前到危机防范,从而使有关国家提前获得了某种承诺,使区域储备库的资金成为随时可用的资源,进而大大提高了决策效率。

The meeting rules prevent arrange drawdown period is 6 months,Can be renewed three times,To make the withdrawal period for up to 2 years,Review once every two years.Since to the design of preventive arrangements have withdrawal period,Request YongKuanGuo pay 0.15% commitment fee accordingly.The hook and hook part of loan time limit is 6 months and 1 year respectively.At the same time also provides,Any member can choose this two kinds of flexible arrangements,But rates shall not exceed the maximum amount of for the country,And strictly limit the two arrangements used at the same time.Once the actuators that a recipient has taken a hit in crisis and the need for additional support,Should be to financial stability facility instead of prevention facilities.Regional financial stability mechanism from a mere post-crisis aid to crisis prevention in advance,So that relevant countries won a commitment in advance,Make regional reserve funds of the available resources at any time,Thus greatly improving the efficiency of decision making.

  未来完善之策 The future perfect

  亚洲区域储备库究竟能否发挥作用,仍尚待检验。长期以来,亚洲国家面临的冲击主要是外部冲击,即应对资本的大量流出。当前,亚洲国家面临的这种风险仍然很大。短期来看,正面临欧美发达国家危机和自身为恢复增长而采取刺激政策的溢出风险;长期来看,亚洲国家还会面临经济结构转型和经济增长方式转变可能带来的内部风险,这种风险也需要提前防备,未雨绸缪。

Asian regional reserve can play a role,Still pending inspection.For a long time,The impact of the Asian countries face is mainly external shocks,That deal with massive outflows of capital.The current,Asian countries face the risk is still very big.In the short term,Is facing a crisis of European and American developed countries and its own stimulus policy spillover risk for return to growth;In the long run,Asian countries also face economic structure transformation and economic growth mode change may lead to internal risk,This risk is also need to guard against in advance,Save for a rainy day.

  增强储备库资金的放大效应。从规模来看,这一基金已经扩大到2400亿美元,欧洲稳定机制的初始规模是5000亿欧元,相对于经济总量,本区域的基金规模似乎仍不算太大。实际上,这一规模是外汇出资额的规模,也是整体可用资源的总量,按照现行的分散管理模式显然不够。欧洲稳定机制以及IMF的可用资源,除了会员认缴的份额外还有外部借款,而本区域分散管理的储备库模式无法具有类似的杠杆效应。因此,最终的解决办法是需将分散管理的储备库转变为集中使用的基金或类似安排。将区域储备库转变为亚洲货币基金或类似机构的实体,应是方向之一。不论是取名为亚洲货币基金(Asian Monetary Fund)还是亚洲货币组织(Asian Monetary Organization),抑或亚洲稳定基金(Asian Financial Stability Fund),具体落实问题都不大,其关键是要实体化。只有变成真正的实体,将一部分资金集中管理,才可提高资金的使用效率。成为类似的亚洲货币基金或实体后,这一组织本身不仅会集中各国的外汇储备作为份额,且可以通过在金融市场发行债券、向成员国借款等方式筹措资金,进而增加这一稳定机制的金融资源,使其具有杠杆效应。

Enhance the amplification effect of reserve funds.Judging by the size,The fund has been expanded to $240 billion,Initial size of the European stability mechanism is 500 billion euros,Relative to the economy,This region of the fund size seems still to be not too big.In fact,This scale is the scale of foreign exchange capital contribution,Is integral to the amount of available resources,According to the current decentralized management mode is not enough.The European stability mechanism, and the IMF's resources available,In addition to subscribed members share and external borrowing,Decentralized management's model of reserve and the region with similar leverage.so,The ultimate solution is the stockpile of decentralized management to focus on use of funds or similar arrangement.To transform regional reserve for the Asian monetary fund entities or similar agencies,Should be one of the direction.Whether Asian monetary fund(Asian Monetary Fund)Or Asian monetary fund(Asian Monetary Organization),Or stability fund in Asia(Asian Financial Stability Fund),Specific implementation issues,The key is to substantiate.Only real entities,Will be part of the funds centralized management,To improve the efficiency of the use of funds.Become a similar Asian monetary fund or entity,The organization itself will not only focus countries in foreign exchange reserves as a share,And can be through the issuance of bonds in financial markets/Borrow from member countries and other means to raise funds,Which increases the stability mechanism of financial resources,Has the leverage effect.

  处理好与IMF条件性关系的同时,增加融资种类。为防止该储备库成为不堪一击或徒有虚名的“纸老虎”,需要在制度设计时提高有效性。为此,首要任务是提高自由使用比例(即与IMF贷款条件性脱钩比例),从而能快速对危机作出反应。

To deal with sexual relations with the IMF conditions at the same time,Additional categories of financing.To prevent the reserve become vulnerable or nominal"A paper tiger",Need to improve effectiveness in system design.To do this,Top priority is to improve the liberal use of proportion(The conditional decoupling ratio with the IMF loans),Which can quickly respond to the crisis.

  关于与IMF脱钩,我认为: On with the IMF,I think:

  第一,适度脱钩是有必要的。摆脱IMF的条件性约束是当初清迈倡议得以达成的初衷,对于东盟的一些成员国,希望脱钩比例越高越好。如果没有该规定,东盟国家可能会缺乏相应的动力。加州大学伯克利分校经济学教授巴里·艾肯格林(Eichengreen.B.)认为,亚洲国家具有不干涉别国内部事务的传统,要指责别国国内政策上的失误是非常困难的。因此,潜在债权国不会因为借款而指责对方,而出于道德风险的担心,在没有可靠保证的情况下一般不愿借出太多。

The first,Moderate decoupling is necessary.Get rid of the IMF's conditional constraint is at the beginning of the Chiang mai initiative to accomplish his purpose,For some members of the association of southeast Asian nations (asean),Want to decouple the higher the ratio, the better.If not the rule,The association of southeast Asian nations (asean) countries may lack motivation.Professor of economics at the university of California, Berkeley, Barry eichengreen(Eichengreen. B.)think,Asian countries have not interfere in internal affairs of tradition,To blame other countries domestic policy mistakes is very difficult.so,Potential creditors will not blaming each other for borrowing,The fear of moral risk,In the absence of reliable guarantee for general, are reluctant to lend too much.

  第二,需要迫切提高AMRO的监督能力。道德风险的存在需要强化监督机制,这需要一定的约束安排,如果不与IMF的条件挂钩,就需要确立不同于IMF的自身标准。其前提,是AMRO的监督能力得到迅速提高。

In the second,Need to urgently improve AMRO supervision ability.The existence of moral hazard need to strengthen the supervision mechanism,This arrangement needs certain constraints,If it is not linked to the IMF's conditions,Just need to set its own standards of different from the IMF.Its premise,Is AMRO supervision and ability are improved rapidly.

  第三,即使AMRO的监督能力得到提高,也未必需要完全脱钩。很多情况下,救助通常是区域稳定机制与IMF的联合救助行动。特别是当大的危机到来时,更需要联合行动,正如墨西哥金融危机时,美国与IMF联动,以及欧债危机下的欧盟、欧元区与IMF的联动。即使此后成为亚洲货币基金或类似其他安排,都需要与IMF保持较好的关系。基于上述分析,2012年5月召开的“东盟+中日韩”财长会议通过的:将脱钩比例先提高至30%,后提高到40%,以后是否调升视AMRO的监测能力而定,——我认为这种考虑是合适的。

In the third,Even if AMRO supervision ability was improved,May not need to completely decoupled.In many cases,Aid is often regional stability mechanism with the IMF bailouts.Especially when the big crisis,Need more joint operations,As Mexico during the financial crisis,The United States and the linkage,As well as the European debt crisis of the European Union/The linkage of the euro zone and the IMF.Even since then become the Asian monetary fund or other similar arrangement,All need to maintain good relations with the IMF.Based on the above analysis,Held in May 2012"Asean + China, Japan and South Korea"Finance ministers' meeting:Decoupling ratio to increase to 30%,After the increase to 40%,Later whether to raise depending on AMRO monitoring ability,- I think this consideration is appropriate.

  第四,提高效率的关键不仅在于提高与IMF条件性的脱钩比例,更重要的是形成不同类型的救助安排。众所周知,全球金融危机后,IMF已在反思其贷款的条件性和决策效率,并创造了灵活贷款安排(Flexible Credit Lines)等不需要条件的紧急贷款。如果东亚区域储备库无法创造出比这种安排更灵活的融资,则这种区域储备库的吸引力会大大降低。有人建议,对前6个月内的贷款可以无需与IMF条件挂钩,但6个月后如果继续借款,则需要按照IMF的相应贷款条件来约束。另有人主张,要将IMF的灵活贷款安排与区域储备库很好结合起来,——这种意见可以考虑。但我认为:可以考虑另一种安排,即在本区域储备库中设计不同种类的贷款安排,包括不需要先决条件并在紧急情况下可动用的自由紧急贷款、根据AMRO自我开发和成员同意的条件性贷款、与IMF条件挂钩的贷款。

In the fourth,Key is not only to improve the efficiency of the conditional decoupling ratio increase with the IMF,More important is to form the different types of aid.As is known to all,After the global financial crisis,The IMF has been conditioned to rethink their loans and decision-making efficiency,And create a flexible loan arrangements(Flexible Credit Lines)Don't need conditions, such as emergency loans.If east Asia regional reserve can't create more flexible than the arrangement of financing,The regional reserve appeal will be greatly reduced.It is suggested that,For six months before the loans can need not linked to the IMF's conditions,But after six months if continue to borrow money,You need according to the IMF's lending conditions corresponding to constraints.Others argued that the,To the IMF's flexible credit arrangements with regional reserve is very good,- this opinion can be considered.But I think:Consider another arrangement,In this region pool design different kinds of loan facility,Including don't need a prerequisite for free and available in an emergency emergency loans/According to AMRO self development and the members agree to conditioned loans/Linked to the IMF's conditions of loans.

  切实提升亚洲区域储备库的危机防范功能。根据2012年5月达成的协议,要新设立预防功能的融资安排,——这当然是有用的。但对危机的防范不在于资金,而在于如何消除危机的根源和将危机消灭在萌芽状态。这一方面取决于成员体内金融体系的稳定性和经济增长的可持续性、灵活性。另一方面取决于危机的早期预警能力。为提高早期预警能力,需要切实提高AMRO的监测能力。而增加成员内金融体系的稳定性,需要加强监管部门的合作,即加强相关技术援助。中长期来看,亚洲金融安全的威胁主要来自经济结构调整的不及时导致的经济增长乏力。过度依赖外部需求的经济增长模式,是亚洲金融稳定的长期隐患,亚洲国家必须走出一条立足于本地需求的发展道路。为保持可持续发展,可在未来亚洲货币基金下建立结构调整贷款。这些结构性贷款可以由各成员国以本币缴纳一定的资金,并通过发行债券的方式来筹集。此外,由于亚洲地区积累了大量以美元和欧元等计价的外汇储备,而美国和欧洲经济的低迷,使亚洲承受了巨大的汇率风险,因此,消除亚洲金融安全隐患的另一个办法是去美元化。为此,需要推进本币在本地的使用,以及加快本币清算体系的建立。

Effectively promoting Asian regional reserve crisis prevention function.According to the agreement reached in May, 2012,To set up new financing arrangements to prevent function,- which of course is useful.But prevention is not the capital of the crisis,But in how to eliminate the root of the crisis and the crisis nipped in the bud.The members on the one hand depends on the stability of the financial system and the sustainability of economic growth/flexibility.On the other hand depends on the crisis early warning capabilities.To improve the early warning ability,Need to enhance AMRO monitoring ability.And increase the stability of members within the financial system,Need to strengthen the regulatory cooperation,Namely to strengthen technical assistance.Medium and long term view,Asian financial security comes mainly from the threat of economic structural adjustment is not timely, leading to economic growth.Excessive dependence on external demand mode of economic growth,Asia's financial stability long-term dangers,Asian countries must be out of a development model based on local needs.To maintain the sustainable development,Can structure adjustment in the future Asian monetary fund loans.These structural loan can be in local currency to pay a certain amount of money paid by all member countries,And by issuing bonds to raise.In addition,Since Asia has accumulated a lot such as the dollar and the euro denominated in foreign exchange reserves,And the United States and Europe's economic downturn,Asia has suffered huge foreign exchange risk,so,Asian financial security hidden danger of another way to go is dollarization.To do this,Need to push their currencies used in local,And accelerate the construction of local currency settlement system.

  做大做强AMRO,充分发挥其功能。区域储备库要真正发挥作用,AMRO是关键。

Bigger and stronger AMRO,Give full play to its function.Regional depots to really play a role,AMRO is the key.

  首先,要强化AMRO的监测功能。AMRO不可能承担所有的区域研究任务,应将各国宏观经济分析和成员国资本流动分析作为重点,及时提出风险警示,进而制定预防性措施。为此,需要提高AMRO的研究分析能力。尽管AMRO可以与国际货币基金组织和亚洲开发银行等机构分享数据和研究信息,但AMRO的研究重点在于区域储备库的成员体经济,侧重资本流动分析。当然,汇率机制合作也是重要的方面。即便如此,AMRO目前仅拥有10多名经济学家,人员过少,无法承担繁重的研究任务。因此,增加研究人员成为必然。

First of all,AMRO monitoring function must be strengthened.AMRO could not have all the areas of study,National macroeconomic analysis and member states should be capital flow analysis as the key,Risk warning in time,To formulate the preventive measures.To do this,Need to improve AMRO research and analysis ability.Although AMRO may with the international monetary fund and the Asian development bank and other institutions to share data and research information,But AMRO's research is focused on regional reserve member economy,Focusing on the capital flow analysis.Of course,,It is also important to aspects of the exchange rate cooperation mechanism.Even so,AMRO currently only has more than 10 economists,Staff too little,Can't bear the heavy study tasks.so,Increase the researchers become inevitable.

  其次,将AMRO建成东亚金融合作的总平台。目前,东亚区域储备库建设与经济评估、政策对话机制已经归在此平台下,下一步应将东亚债券市场倡议、监管机构合作机制等都纳入进来,从而提高金融合作的效率。亚洲债券市场发展和监管机构的合作都有助于各国金融体系的稳定,同时,也可以促进全球一体化。AMRO应当成为东亚金融合作的秘书处,统领现行及未来的合作任务。

The second,Total AMRO will be completed the east Asian financial cooperation platform.At present,East Asian regional reserve and economic evaluation/Policy dialogue mechanism has been on this platform,The next step should be east Asian bond market initiative/Regulatory cooperation mechanism and so on are included,So as to improve the efficiency of the financial cooperation.The Asian bond market development and regulatory cooperation can help countries to the stability of the financial system,At the same time,Can also promote global integration.AMRO should become the secretariat of the east Asian financial cooperation,At the head of the mission of current and future cooperation.

  再次,作为监督机构,AMRO不应只停留在危机到来后的救助,应介入危机预防、危机预警、危机应对和危机后评估等多个环节。从危机预访角度来看,要提高监管的有效性,坚持合理的宏观经济政策,及时调整宏观经济结构,并采取适合自身情况的金融自由化及金融开放政策。从危机预警角度来看,要在监督过程中及时发现风险隐患并及时预警,发挥“同行压力”作用,并加以监督。通过加强技术援助,建立稳定的金融体系,消除风险隐患,提高各成员体金融体系的稳定性,避免出现大的金融风险和金融危机。从危机应对角度来看,要在发生危机时立即动议对危机进行评估,立即作出是否需要救助、救助多少及如何救助的决定。从危机后评估来看,需要被援助国在事后进行反思,对危机发生的原因、救助过程及救助效果进行评估,尽力预防类似危机的再次发生。

Once again,,As a watchdog,AMRO should not only aid after the crisis,Should be involved in crisis prevention/Crisis warning/Crisis and post-crisis assessments, and other links.From the point of view of the crisis in advance to visit,To improve the effectiveness of supervision,Adhere to the reasonable macro economic policy,Timely adjustment of macroeconomic structure,Suitable for their own situation and take the financial liberalization and financial opening policy.From the point of view of the crisis warning,To timely found potential risks in the process of supervision and warning in time,play"Peer pressure is"role,And to monitor the.By strengthening technical assistance,To establish a stable financial system,Eliminate the risk hidden danger,Improve each member of the financial system stability,Avoid large financial risk and financial crisis.From the point of view of the crisis,To immediately in the event of a crisis when the motion to evaluate crisis,Whether you need immediately assistance/How much and how to aid decision aid.From the crisis after the evaluation,Needs to be donors in hindsight,The cause of the crisis/The rescue process and effect assessment,Try our best to prevent a similar crisis from happening again.

  最后,AMRO从名称上来看过于保守。作为独立的监督机构,虽然研究是很重要的任务,但其目的并不在于研究本身,而是预警、提出条件、对成员特别是用款国进行监督。针对此,现有这种平和的名称显得有些底气不足,需要更改名称。当然,这似乎是AMRO在发展初始阶段保持“低调”的表现。

The last,AMRO on the name of it is too conservative.As an independent watchdog,Though study is very important task,But its purpose is not the research itself,But early warning/Put forward the conditions/To supervise members especially YongKuanGuo.For this,The title of this peace seem to be some lack,Need to change the name.Of course,,This seems to be AMRO in initial development stage"A low profile"The performance of the.

  要处理好与区域内双边互换安排的关系。目前,该区域内还有一些双边的互换安排,而这种双边安排正是区域储备库的补充。双边互换有其灵活和高效率的一面,同时,基于本币的双边货币互换也是促进本地区减少对美元依赖、规避美元汇率风险的一种良好设计。双边互换安排可以减少当前区域储备库成立初期,各方面尚未完全成熟的压力。不可否认,双边货币互换与区域储备库在某种程度上存在竞争关系。由此,会促进区域储备库在申请、使用和还款等方面做出更好的设计。为与双边货币互换相比体现出自身的鲜明特色,需要在程序、借款种类和条件等方面更具灵活性。当然,区域内的双边互换也可以促进各成员国间的了解和双边监督,这些交流和监督正是区域储备库在运作中所需要的。

To handle the relationship between the bilateral swap arrangement and area.At present,There's still some bilateral swap arrangements in the region,And the bilateral arrangement is regional reserve added.Bilateral swap has a flexible and efficient,At the same time,Based on the local currency of bilateral currency swap is to promote the region to reduce dependence on the dollar/A good design to hedge their exposure to the dollar.Bilateral swap arrangement can reduce the current regional reserve early,Stress on various aspects have not yet fully mature.There is no denying that,Bilateral currency swap and regional reserve compete in some extent.thus,Will promote regional reserve in the application/To use and make reimbursement of better design.As compared with bilateral currency swap reflects its own distinctive characteristics,Need in a program/Borrowing more flexible types and conditions, etc.Of course,,Area of bilateral swap can promote understanding between the member states and bilateral surveillance,These exchanges and supervision is needed to reserve in the operation area.

  处理好IMF间的关系。IMF作为国际金融组织,尽管存在多方面问题,也曾给本区域国家留下了“痛苦”的记记,但当大的危机到来之时,我们仍然需要与IMF配合行动。1997年成立亚洲货币基金时,IMF并不“乐意”。后来的《清迈倡议》则一开始就“小心”地提到其宗旨是解决区域内的流动性问题,是IMF救助的补充。自“二十国集团”汉城峰会以来,多国领导人一直高度评价区域金融稳定机制的作用。刚刚结束的本次“二十国集团”财长和央行行长会议,提出要加强不同区域金融稳定机制间的对话,提升区域金融稳定机制与IMF间的合作,强化其互补性。亚洲区域储备库及其监督机构需要加强与IMF的合作,做到在融资设施、信息交流上的互补,在当前发展的初期,还需要在能力建设上得到IMF的支持。近年来,IMF也在进行治理改革,增加了金融资源和贷款能力,改革救助方式。IMF在本轮危机中寻求更强大和更稳固的地位,我们需要尊重和应用。此外,鉴于IMF正在改革之中,亚洲区域储备库成员国应积极行动,通过财长和央行行长会议机制及宏观经济研究办公室的平台,协调在IMF等国际金融机构中的行动,能用一个声音说话,争取在IMF治理改革及救助机制中发挥更为积极的作用。当前,正是由于IMF这样的国际金融组织存在不合理之处,不少亚洲国家在危机之时深受其害,东亚国家仍在承受发达国家为恢复增长所采取的长期宽松政策带来的溢出效应。在危机渐去渐远之际,发达国家改革压力相对减弱之时,亚洲区域储备库成员国有必要形成一致行动,以不断增强改革的推动力。

Deal with the relationship between the fund.The IMF as an international financial organization,Although there are many problems,Have left this region countries"The pain"The type of,But when the big crisis arrives,We still need to cooperate with the IMF.The Asian monetary fund was established in 1997,The IMF is not"Happy to".later[The Chiang mai initiative]Is the beginning"Be careful"Reference to the aim is to address the issue of liquidity within the region,Is a complement to the IMF.Since the"The group of 20 nations"Since the Seoul summit,The allied leaders spoke highly of the role mechanism of regional financial stability.Just finished this"The group of 20 nations"Finance ministers and central bank governors meeting,Put forward to strengthen the dialogue between different regional financial stability mechanism,Enhance cooperation between the regional financial stability mechanism and the IMF,Strengthen the complementary.Asian regional reserve and its supervising agencies need to strengthen cooperation with the IMF,Do it in the financing facilities/Complementary information communication,At the beginning of the current development,You also need to get the IMF on capacity building support.In recent years,The IMF governance reform,Increase financial resources and the ability to make loans,Reform of the way.The IMF in this crisis stronger and more stable status,We need to respect and applications.In addition,Given the IMF's are under reform,Asian regional reserve members should actively action,By finance ministers and central bank governors meeting mechanism and platform of macroeconomic research office,Coordinated action in the IMF and other international financial institutions,With one voice,For in the IMF governance reform and rescue mechanism play a more active role.The current,It is because of the IMF international financial organization is not reasonable,Many Asian countries in crisis,East Asian countries are still in the under developed countries for a return to growth easing bring spillover effects for a long time.The crisis gradually to gradually far,When the pressure is relatively less developed countries reform,Asian regional reserve members necessary to form a consistent action,By increasing the driving force for the reform.

  (作者单位:外交学院国际金融研究中心)

(The author unit:Foreign affairs college international financial research center)



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