2006年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者，哥伦比亚大学教授，新华都商学院院长Edmund S Phelps The Nobel Prize winner of economics in 2006,A professor at Columbia University,New huadu Edmund s. Phelps, dean of school of business

　　和讯网消息 2013首届诺贝尔奖经济学家中国峰会3月18日-19日在北京召开，和讯网全程播报。2006年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者，哥伦比亚大学教授，新华都商学院院长Edmund S Phelps表示，中国现在的这个金融体系的能力不够。在选择哪一些商业计划适宜投资方面，这方面的能力还不够。在对国有企业的融资这方面，毫无疑问，对国企的这种资金的分配不一定总是分配到了最具有生产力的领域和企业，而对这些私营企业的融资，很关键一点就是必须有一些专业上的洞见，但是事实上，这些决定基本上是基于个人的关系。

2013 HeXunWang news first Nobel economists - China summit on March 18, 19, was held in Beijing,HeXunWang to broadcast all the way.The Nobel Prize winner of economics in 2006,A professor at Columbia University,New huadu said Edmund s. Phelps, dean of school of business,China's ability of the financial system is not enough now.In choosing which some business plan suitable for investment,This ability is not enough.On the financing of state-owned enterprises,There is no doubt,This capital of the state of distribution is not always in the most productive areas and enterprise,The financing of these private enterprises,Is the key point is must have some professional insights,But in fact,The decision is basically based on personal relationships.

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　　Edmund S Phelps：当然我们考虑到了这些创新要么会给我们带来一定的生产力的提高，或者能给我们带来工作满意度方面的提升。这是我们需要事先了解的一点，比如说像前苏联，他们认为他们可以通过教育实现一些目标，同时美国却是通过新的产品和技术来实现。但是俄国的博士都是研究数学和物理方面，但是现在他们却在开出租车，很显然他们没有提高俄国的生产力。中国促进经济发展是通过不断提高家庭收入和财富来实现。通过这种方式来提高消费者需求，使得企业能够来响应这一变化，逐渐将自己产出的产品从出口转向国内消费。但是这种对于家庭消费的刺激并没有非常明显的来增加生产率，或者其他的优势。当然了，除了能提高一些消费之外。那么德国，也是继续的把注意力放在出口上，看起来问题并不是非常大，美国还有其他一些国家他们有低的税费，从而促进消费需求，并没有出现其他的效果，可能我们就会思考，在这种将中国转为消费者社会背后的热情的原因是什么？

Edmund s. Phelps:Of course, we considered these innovations will either bring us certain productivity,Or work can bring us satisfaction improvements.This is a point we need to know in advance,Like the former Soviet union,They believe that they can achieve some goals through education,At the same time the United States is through new products and technologies to implement.But Russia is Dr Study mathematics and physics,But now they are driving a taxi,Apparently they did not increase the productivity of Russian.China to promote economic development is done by rising household income and wealth.In this way to boost consumer demand,Enables the enterprise to in response to the change,Gradually to its output product from exports to domestic consumption.But this for the stimulation of household consumption is not very obvious to increase productivity,Or other advantages.And, of course,Besides can improve some consumption.So Germany,Also continue to focus on exports,It is unlikely that problem is very big,The United States and other countries they have low taxes,To promote consumer demand,And there are no other effect,Maybe we can think,In this kind of enthusiasm behind China into a consumer society to reason is what?

　　而且随着时间的发展，一切都表明，中国企业家将会找到新的技术，将中国技术水平提高到西方的水准当中去。我并不会说这不会发生，可能这是会发生的，但是我们先要回到刚才提出的问题，我们有必要说这种标准的经济学实际上是与这种信念相对的。由约瑟夫熊彼德提出的一项原理表明，世界上的科学法，很可能造成商业应用的可能性，那么对于熊彼德式的企业家，他们需要不断的驱动业务方面的经验来开发新的技术，或者说是生产的方法，使一切成为可能，或者说是在经济之外的一项科学发现，那么这项理论就能够解释，为什么中国的一些企业家不能够基于一些基本的科学原理来进行技术方面的发展。但是这项理论并没有说中国的企业家不能自己寻找到新的技术，但实际上很多中国企业家已经通过这种方式实现了很好的创新。

And with the development of the time,Everything points to,Chinese entrepreneurs will find new technology,Will China's technical level up to western standards.I will not say it will not happen,This is likely to happen,But first we want to go back to the question just now,It is necessary for us to say the standard actually is as opposed to a belief in economics.According to a principle by Joseph schumpeter,The scientific method in the world,Is likely to cause the possibility of business applications,In schumpeter's entrepreneurs,They need to constantly drive business experience to the development of new technology,Or production method,Make everything possible,A scientific discovery or outside of the economy,So the theory can explain,Why don't some of China's entrepreneurs can be based on some of the basic scientific principles for technological development.But the theory did not say the Chinese entrepreneurs can't find their own new technology,But in fact many Chinese entrepreneurs have realized the great innovation in this way.

　　对于熊彼德本人，他也是否认了企业家真正具有自身创造力的。那么对于一些企业家来讲，自己创造出新的技术，通常是通过自己的日常工作来总结的经验，由德里克菲亚特的理论来看，他也是非常著名的经济学家和商业人士，通过这些实践的常识，在很多机会里面，我们可以看到一些人会发现一些新的产品机会，可能对于市场并不是完美的，这些企业家不断的适应这些市场，给我们带来更高的效率，但是海耶克斯的观点是不一样的。他没有把所有希望放在一个国家所有的企业家身上，通过识别经济当中的效率低下的部分，通过这种识别可以实现生产率的三倍，甚至两倍增长。在缺少创新资源的同时，这种提高生产率的方法可以帮助一个国家的发展，但是不能带来持续性的技术进步。特别是一些不断寻求工作效率的企业家来讲。

For the bear Peter himself,He also denied that the entrepreneurs really has its own creativity.So for some entrepreneurs,Create new technology,Usually through their daily work to summarize the experience,By Derek fiat's theory,He is also very famous economists and business people,Through the practice of common sense,In a lot of opportunities,We can see that some people will find some new product opportunities,Possible for the market is not perfect,These entrepreneurs constantly adapt to the market,Bring us more efficiency,But the sea and the Banks point of view is different.He didn't put all hope in a country of all entrepreneurs,By identifying an inefficient part of the economy,Three times in this recognition can achieve productivity,Even two times growth.At the same time in the lack of innovation resources,This method can help increase productivity of a country's development,But does not bring continuous technological progress.In particular, some entrepreneurs consistently seek work efficiency.

　　那么对于中国技术来讲，如何追赶西方呢？或者与西方保持接近？有人说，答案是真正的使用科学家的智慧，对一些小国家来讲，可能这些方法并不是很好的方法，

So for Chinese technology,How to catch up in the west?Or keep close with the west?Some people say that,The answer is real use of the wisdom of scientists,For a few small countries,May these methods is not a very good method,

　　在美国利用科学家还有企业家才能方面是做的非常不错的，中国也可以借鉴美国的做法，但是在科学家之间，我们知道一个社会中科学家的人数不会特别多，他们一方面要做科研，另外一方面还有教学的任务，还有一些时间要用来进行科技研发方面的创新，所以一方面科学家的人数不是特别多，另外他们可以对基本的用于商业应用方面的研究时间也不会特别多。新的产品和方法的主要来源，也就是如何来追赶西方的生产率，我觉得应该是来自中国的企业家，这些新一代的成功的企业家。一般的人可能不具备足够的想象力或者创造力来实现这种原创性，但是一旦这些人在商界站稳了脚跟，他们就可以创造一些新的产品和好的想法，而且他们可以根据自己的一些经验，给出自己的洞见，看哪些创意在市场上会获得成功。

In terms of the use of scientists and entrepreneurs to do very good,China can draw lessons from the us,But among scientists,We don't know the number of scientists in a society,On the one hand they want to do scientific research,On the other hand there are the teaching task,Have some time to used to carry out research and development of science and technology innovation,So on the one hand the number of scientists is not much more special,In addition, they can be used for commercial applications of basic research time is not much more special.The main source of new products and methods,That is how to pursue western productivity,I think I should is entrepreneurs from China,The new generation of successful entrepreneurs.Normal people may not have enough imagination or creativity to achieve the original,But once these people firmly established in the business world,They can create new products and ideas,And they can according to own some experience,Given his own insights,To see what ideas would succeed in the market.

　　那么中国怎么样来组织它的经济？怎么样来激励并且选择它的企业家来推动创新？这就是值得关注的问题。在这方面，中国的情况可能有些复杂，在国企这个领域，国企的经理人或者领导，可能并不是基于商业洞见来选拔或者提升的，当然如果这些业绩良好的国企能够对技术进步和创新进行投资，当然对整个国家都是有好处的。比方说，在金融的行业怎么样来发现有成功潜力的商机进行融资。那这样对于新的产品和方法的推进都是有非常至关重要的作用的。

How to organize its economy so China?How to encourage entrepreneurs to promote innovation and choose it?This is an issue.In this respect,The situation in China may be a little complicated,In the state-owned enterprises in this field,State-owned enterprises managers or leaders,May not be based on business insight to selection or promotion,If the performance is good, of course, can carry on the investment to the technological progress and innovation in state-owned enterprises,Of course is good for the whole country.For example,,In the financial industry how to found a potential business opportunities for financing success.That such for new products and methods of propulsion is a very important role.

　　在这种私营领域，很多私营企业的老板，他们通过他们的成功已经证实了自身是有勇有谋的人，尤其小型公司的CEO，可能他们并没有技术上的非常高深的知识来购买新的技术，所以对于私营领域来说，他们的瓶颈就是技术上的知识。那在国有企业这个领域，前面说的主要问题是商业上的判断，而私营企业这部分主要问题是技术上的洞见。

In the private sector,Many of the private enterprise boss,They through their success has proved itself is a resourceful man,Especially small company's CEO,May be they are not technically very profound knowledge to buy new technology,So for the private sector,They are the bottleneck of technical knowledge.In the state-owned enterprises in this field,Said in front of the main problem is the commercial judgment,And this part of the private enterprise the main problem is technical insight.

　　还有一种更糟糕的情况就是中国现在的这个金融体系的能力不够。也就是说，他们在选择哪一些商业计划适宜投资方面，这方面的能力还不够。在对国有企业的融资这方面，毫无疑问，对国企的这种资金的分配不一定总是分配到了最具有生产力的领域和企业，而对这些私营企业的融资，我想很关键一点就是必须有一些专业上的洞见，但是事实上，这些决定基本上是基于个人的关系。

There is a worse is the Chinese ability of the financial system is not enough now.That is to say,They choose some appropriate investment business plan,This ability is not enough.On the financing of state-owned enterprises,There is no doubt,This capital of the state of distribution is not always in the most productive areas and enterprise,The financing of these private enterprises,I think is the key point is must have some professional insights,But in fact,The decision is basically based on personal relationships.

　　那么中国是不是像我刚才分析的这种情况呢？是不是在本土创新方面正在进步呢？我们是不是正在实现一个很好的本土创新的步伐呢？

So is China like I just analysis of this kind of situation?Whether in terms of indigenous innovation is making progress?We are implementing a good local the pace of innovation?

　　前面讲的全要素生产率，他的增长率就是抛出了人力资本和资本投入的增长。在1990年代的时候，这个阶段是比较高的，随后就下降了，然后又恢复了它的增长速度，在2000年中期，现在看起来比前面两个高峰阶段要慢了不少，根据最新的数据，在11年这个全要素增长率是2.2%，这个数据是来自美国一个会议组织，我也记得在其他地方看过一些数据，比方说Jams教授也给过相关研究，也表示现在全要素生产率是下降的。那么Gylfi Zogea估计这种增长率，我前面也说了，希望大家能猜出这个估计的最终数据，根据这个估计，这个进步速度是在5%左右，当然这是一个初步的数据，我在这里就不仔细讨论这个数据了，因为这只是一个初步的数据。但这个数据一窝开始的预期要高一些，也比刚才讲的美国的董事局给的数据要高一些，当然还需要验证。

Speak in front of the total factor productivity,He raise the human capital and capital investment growth is growth.In the '1990 s,This stage is relatively high,Then fell,Then resumed its growth,In the mid - 2000,Now it seems a lot slower than two peak in front of the stage,According to the latest data,In 11 years, the total factor growth rate is 2.2%,The data is from the United States a meeting group,I also remember in other places have seen some of the data,Professor say Jams also gave related research,Also said that total factor productivity is falling now.So Gylfi Zogea estimates the growth rate,In front of me said,Hope everyone can guess the estimate of the final data,According to the estimate,The progress rate is around 5%,This is of course a preliminary data,Here I am not carefully discuss the data,Because this is just a preliminary data.But this data is a litter higher expectations,Than just told us the board to the data,Of course you also need to test and verify.

　　这个5%全要素增长率，可能大部分是来自哈耶克的改造。比方说是由于对全球这种基础设施改造带来的结果。在这个改造之外才是来自本土的创新。今天上午我们也对于如何改善生产力做了一些探讨。还有人说，这5%的改善主要是来自基础设施的改善，跑开这些之外才是本土创新的因素。但是有一点毫无疑问，中国不仅也能力进行自主创新，而且现在自主创新已经发生的一段时间了。

The total factor growth rate 5%,Most likely is from hayek's transformation.Say, due to the results of the infrastructure around the globe.In this transformation is from indigenous innovation.This morning we also made some discussion on how to improve productivity.Others say,The 5% improvement is mainly comes from the improvement of the infrastructure,Run away this is the indigenous innovation factors.But there is no doubt about it,China is not only the ability for independent innovation,And now the independent innovation has happened for a period of time.