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保险逆袭 银行低迷--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2013-05-20
时间滑进5月,银行、保险业一季度财务数据集体亮相。京华时报记者总结发现,今年一季度,保险业成功逆袭,以强劲的增长势头登上高点。不过,在投资丰收这一华丽外衣下退保费增加依然是行业一大难题。而多数银行的赚钱能力却同比降幅较大,不良贷款也在去年年底的基础上有所增加。但令人欣喜的是,各银行已逐渐开始创新资本补充方式。
Time slip into may,The bank/The insurance industry in the first quarter of financial data.Beijing times reporter found were summarized,In the first quarter this year,The insurance industry successful counter attack,With strong growth momentum on high.but,In the investment under the gorgeous coat back premiums increase harvest is still is a big problem in the industry.While most Banks make money ability larger year-on-year,Non-performing loans are at the end of last year on the basis of the increase.But it is happy,Banks have gradually started to innovation capital supplement way.
京华时报记者牛颖惠 苗慧 马文婷 高晨
Beijing times reporter NiuYingHui MiaoHui Ma Wenting Gao Chen
保险篇 The insurance paper
一季度险企业绩回暖 In the first quarter risk enterprise performance
相对于2012年业绩表现出的颓势,今年一季度,保险公司业绩大幅飘红,成功“逆袭”。
Compared with the 2012 results show the weakness,In the first quarter this year,Insurance company performance has perked up,success"Counter attack".
中国太保(601601,股吧)率先发布一季报,实现净利润22.25亿元,同比增幅高达241.3%。相比去年一季度净利润大跌八成,太保今年的表现可谓扬眉吐气。
China Pacific(601601,stocks)First to publish a quarterly reports,Net profit of 2.225 billion yuan,241.3% year-on-year growth.Compared to the first quarter net profit fell eighty percent last year,Proud Pacific's performance this year.
之后,中国人寿(601628,股吧)公告显示一季度净利润同比增长79.1%,达100.77亿元;而其2012年全年净利润才110.61亿元。与此同时,79.1%的增幅也结束了该公司连续两年的“负增长”。
after,China life(601628,stocks)Announcement shows that in the first quarter net profit up 79.1% from a year earlier,A total of 10.077 billion yuan;And its full-year net profit to 11.061 billion yuan in 2012.At the same time,79.1% growth over the company for two consecutive years"Negative growth".
新华保险(601336,股吧)和中国平安(601318,股吧)的一季报也均是开门红。新华保险一季度净利润同比增长90.8%,共实现14.65亿元;而中国平安相对稳定,同比增长21.9%,实现净利73.93亿元。
Xinhua insurance(601336,stocks)And China's ping an(601318,stocks)The quarterly reports are also a good start.Xinhua insurance in the first quarter net profit up 90.8% from a year earlier,A total of 1.465 billion yuan;And China's ping an is relatively stable,Up 21.9% from a year earlier,Net profit of 7.393 billion yuan.
长城证券分析师刘俊指出,一季度4家上市险企净利润同比增长61.4%,其中投资净收益增长52.9%,行业受益于投资驱动的效果明显。
Great Wall securities analyst LiuJun pointed out,Quarter 4 listed insurance companies net profit up 61.4% from a year earlier,Net investment profit growth of 52.9%,Industry benefit from investment driven effect is obvious.
与此同时,全行业业绩也呈现出整体回暖的趋势。保监会日前公布2013年首季保费收入数据显示,全行业一季度实现保费收入5150.6亿元,同比增长6.5%;投资总额为46875.41亿元,同比增长69%,投资增幅明显提高。
At the same time,The industry performance and presents the overall warming trend.Insurance regulatory commission recently released first quarter of 2013 premium income figures show,The industry posted premium income of 515.06 billion yuan,Up 6.5% from a year earlier;Total investment is 4.687541 trillion yuan,Up 69% from a year earlier,Investment growth has improved significantly.
外资公司今年一季度的业绩表现同样大放异彩。在香港上市的友邦保险新业务价值上升25%至2.91亿美元,新业务价值利润率为38.4%,年化新保费增至7.45亿美元,总加权保费收入升至41.77亿美元,首季净利创出新高。
Foreign companies in the first quarter's performance is also to shine.Listed in Hong Kong, aia new business value rose 25% to $291 million,New business value of profit margin of 38.4%,Annual new premiums rose to $745 million,The total weighted premium income rose to $4.177 billion,Record first quarter net profit.
全球再保险巨头瑞士再保险集团今年第一季度实现净收益14亿美元,同比增长21%;保费和手续费收入为68亿美元;综合成本率达到72.4%的出色水平,延续过去几年来不断改善的长期趋势。
Global reinsurance giant Swiss reinsurance group implement net earnings of $1.4 billion in the first quarter of this year,Up 21% from a year earlier;Premium and fee income of $6.8 billion;Comprehensive cost rate of 72.4% of the outstanding level,Continuation of the past few years to continuously improve the long-term trend.
焦点 The focus
退保金压力骤增 Surrender gold pressure surge
尽管险企依托低基数效应实现净利润同比增长,但保费增速放缓、退保金额增多,以及满期给付压力是保险业特别是寿险业面临的三大难题。数据显示,中国人寿一季度退保金翻番,中国太保、中国平安、新华保险的退保金均增加四成到六成不等。
Even though insurance companies relying on low base effects to achieve net profit year-on-year growth,But the premium growth is slowing/Surrender value increase,And maturity payment pressure especially life insurance is insurance industry is facing three problems.According to data,China life insurance surrender gold double the same period last year,China Pacific/China's ping an/Xinhua insurance surrender gold were increased by forty percent to forty percent.
公开数据显示,中国人寿今年前3月保费收入为1100.68亿元,下降2.4%,但退保金就达到200.88亿元,同比上涨102.6%。中国人寿解释称,主要是受各类银行理财产品冲击,部分银保产品退保增加。同时,中国人寿一季度赔付支出438.6亿元,同比增长40.7%,公司称是部分产品集中满期给付所致。
Public data shows,China life insurance premium income in the first 3 month is RMB 110.068 billion,Dropped by 2.4%,But surrender gold reached $20.088 billion,Up 102.6% year-on-year.China life explained,Mainly is impacted by the various types of bank financing products,Part of bank-insurance product surrender.At the same time,China life in the first quarter to pay 43.86 billion yuan,Up 40.7% from a year earlier,Company said it is caused by the expiration of some products focus to pay.
对此,长江证券(000783,股吧)分析师刘俊表示,银行系保险公司的快速崛起及银保产品收益率的不给力导致银保退保快速增加,中国人寿退保率远超同业。刘俊认为主要是合作的银行系保险公司抢占客户所致。退保的改善需要公司提高和银行合作的成本提高对客户经理的激励,同时也需要提升产品的吸引力,银保需要在战略上进行调整,否则,退保依然会形成较大的压力。
For this,Changjiang securities(000783,stocks)LiuJun analysts said,Bank is the rapid rise of insurance company and product yields for Banks and insurance companies to silver confirmed surrender increase rapidly,China life insurance surrender rate than trade.LiuJun thought mainly is the cooperation of Banks is due to insurance company to grab the customer.Surrender need company improves and the increase in the cost of bank manager's incentives to customers,At the same time also need to increase product appeal,Need Banks and insurance companies on the strategic adjustment,otherwise,The surrender will still form a larger pressure.
而中国太保一季报也显示,由于部分银保渠道产品退保增加,该公司退保金达51.72亿元,同比增长61.5%。
While China Pacific a quarterly results showed,Surrender because some channels of Banks and insurance products,The company surrender gold of 5.172 billion yuan,Up 61.5% from a year earlier.
此外,中国平安一季度退保金增长38.3%,新华保险一季度退保金同比增加54.8%。
In addition,China's ping an surrender gold in the first quarter increased by 38.3%,Xinhua insurance surrender gold rose 54.8% in the first quarter.
分析指出,赔付支出增加的原因在于2008年销售的五年期产品集中到期,导致满期给付支出增加。退保及满期给付是2013年寿险行业均面临的压力,也是此前粗放式发展的弊端集中显现。在当前寿险销售环境依然恶劣的情况下,保险公司的产品结构转型迫在眉睫。
Analysis indicates that,Compensation spending increases of the reason is that sales in 2008 of five-year product concentration,Lead to expire to pay increased spending.Surrender and expiration to pay is 2013 life insurance industry are facing the pressure,The previous extensive development appeared the disadvantages of concentration.In the current life insurance marketing environment remains the bad situation,Insurance company's product structure transformation is imminent.
银行篇 Bank paper
净利润增速同比下滑 Net profit growth rate fell
16家上市银行去年一季度的净利润平均增速达到30%以上,而今年这一增速大幅回落至20%以下。今年一季度仅有兴业银行(601166,股吧)增速达到了32.4%,其余均低于30%。与去年年报数据相比,仅建行和中信银行(601998,股吧)出现上升,其余银行赚钱能力均有不同程度的下滑。净利润增速下滑最快的是平安银行(000001,股吧),今年一季度同比增4.6%,去年年报数据为30.3%,下滑了25.7个百分点。
16 listed Banks in the first quarter of last year net profit grew more than 30% on average,And this year the growth rate has dropped sharply to below 20%.In the first quarter this year only at societe generale(601166,stocks)Growth rate reached 32.4%,The rest are all less than 30%.Compared with last year's annual report data,Only China construction bank and China citic bank(601998,stocks)rose,The rest of the Banks make money ability all have varying degrees of decline.Net profit growth is the fastest decline in ping an bank(000001,stocks),In the first quarter increased 4.6% year-on-year,Last year's annual report data of 30.3%,Dropped by 25.7%.
不过值得注意的是,数据显示,五家大型银行的主要业务继续保持较好的发展势头,第一季度利润共计2300亿元,利润增速平均也达到了11.16%,远高于市场个位数的悲观预期。
But it is worth noting,According to data,Five big bank's main business continued to maintain a good momentum of development,In the first quarter profits totaling 230 billion yuan,Profit growth is 11.16% on average,Is far higher than the single-digit market pessimism.
东方证券银行业分析师金麟分析认为,五大行收入端超预期反映银行的高议价能力。一季度银行净息差环比下降仅9BP,且还是在贷款占生息资产比重下降的背景下实现的。此外,手续费收入重新实现较快增长,而去年五大行的手续费基数是前高后低。
Orient securities, banking analyst at Jin Lin analysis thought,Five lines than expected income end reflect the high bargaining power of the bank.Quarter of bank net interest margins fell only 9 bp,And still in the loan account for interest-bearing assets in China under the background of implementation.In addition,Fee income to achieve faster growth,Last year five lines of charge base is low after high before.
上市银行业绩从去年开始出现下滑,与利率市场化的开启密切相关。事实也证明,中小银行受到的冲击更加大一点。2012年6月,央行在降息的同时扩大存贷款利率的浮动区间,其中存款利率是首次放开,允许10%的上浮空间,利率市场化进入实质性提速阶段。工行行长杨凯生曾表示,“利率市场化之后,核心竞争力强的银行将发展得更好。”不过业内人士认为,利率市场化对银行业绩的抑制已经显现,并且在今年上半年还将继续施加影响。
Listed Banks performance began to decline since last year,Closely related with the opening of interest rate marketization.The fact that,Small and medium-sized Banks were hit more bigger.In June 2012,The central bank cut interest rates and to expand the floating range of deposit and lending rates,The deposit interest rate is the first time,Allow 10% to rise space,Market-oriented interest rate accelerated into a substantive stage.Icbc President Yang kaisheng said,"After the marketization of interest rates,Strong core competitiveness of the Banks will develop better."But industry insiders say,Inhibition of marketization of interest rate on bank performance has revealed,In the first half of this year and will continue to exert influence.
焦点 The focus
仅两银行不良贷款“双降” Only two Banks bad loans"Double down"
一季度上市银行不良贷款率上升呈现普遍态势。仅3家银行不良率降低,分别为北京银行(601169,股吧)、中国银行(601988,股吧)和农业银行(601288,股吧)。此外,建行、民生银行(600016,股吧)和南京银行(601009,股吧)不良率保持不变。其余10家银行不良率均有不同程度增加。
Quarter of listed Banks non-performing loan ratio rising trend generally.Only three Banks lower defective rate,Bank of Beijing respectively(601169,stocks)/The bank of China(601988,stocks)And agricultural bank(601288,stocks).In addition,The construction bank/Minsheng bank(600016,stocks)And the bank of nanjing(601009,stocks)Defective rate stays the same.The rest of the 10 Banks defective rate also increased to different extent.
一季度,不良率的情况延续以往股份制银行优于国有大行的传统,不良贷款率最低的三家银行分别是兴业银行、北京银行和浦发银行(600000,股吧)。在五大行中,工行不良率在五大行中最低,为0.87%。而农行仍然是唯一一家不良率超过1%的上市银行。虽然不良率依旧垫底,不过农行一季度不良贷款继续保持“双降”,另一家实现不良贷款“双降”的是北京银行。
In the first quarter,Defective rate of the continuation of previous joint-stock Banks is superior to the traditional state-owned big line,Non-performing loan ratio of the lowest three Banks societe generale, respectively/Bank of Beijing and Shanghai pudong development bank(600000,stocks).In the five line,Icbc defective rate is lowest in five rows,Of 0.87%.And agricultural bank is still the only one defective rate more than 1% of the listed Banks.Although the defective rate is still at the bottom,But agbank quarter of non-performing loans to continue"Double down",Another implementation of non-performing loans"Double down"The bank of Beijing.
除农行和北京银行外,一季度14家上市银行不良贷款余额均出现上升,新增不良贷款总额约222亿元。16家上市银行不良贷款余额总计达4240亿元,较去年末增加219.4亿元。其中五大行的不良贷款余额总计为3408.3亿元,占全部上市银行不良贷款余额总额的80.38%。
In addition to the agricultural bank and bank of Beijing,Quarter of 14 listed Banks non-performing loans outstanding rose,About 22.2 billion yuan worth of new bad loans.16 listed Banks non-performing loan balance totaled 424 billion yuan,From late last year an increase of 21.94 billion yuan.The balance of the five lines of non-performing loans totaling 340.83 billion yuan,Accounting for 80.38% of the total amount of all listed Banks non-performing loan balance.
东方证券银行业分析师金麟表示,不良贷款仍处于多发阶段。一季度银行的贷款质量压力仍然处在最近10年来最大的阶段。金麟指出,贷款质量波动反映的是实体部门的窘况。1季度,实体部门盈利对付息的支撑能力在历史低点附近继续恶化,而收现比同样创出2000年以来的新低,仅靠筹资活动净现金流的大规模增长维持着现金流净额的小幅环比改善。
Orient securities, banking analyst at Jin Lin said,Non-performing loans still in multiple phases.Quarter of bank's loan quality is still in the last ten years the biggest pressure stage.Jin Lin pointed out,Loan quality fluctuations reflect the real sector of predicament.1 quarter,Profitable entity department's ability to support payments continue to deteriorate near historic lows,The collection also makes the lowest since 2000,Only rely on financing activities net cash flow of massive growth maintained net cash flow of the rose slightly improved.
创新融资工具开始被提及 Innovative financing tools to mentioned
随着一季报的落幕,各银行最新融资方案相继出炉。记者统计发现,中行、农行、工行、建行、平安银行、光大银行(601818,股吧)相继公告称,拟在未来2-3年内将利用创新型的资本补充工具融资。另有多家银行也表露出相应的融资意愿。
As a quarterly reports,Banks in the latest financing schemes have been released.Reporters found,Bank of China/Agricultural bank/icbc/The construction bank/Ping an bank/Everbright bank(601818,stocks)Have been reported,Proposed in the next 2-3 years to take advantage of innovative financing capital supplement tools.Otherwise the Banks also reveals the corresponding financing needs.
值得注意的是,此次发行的融资工具主要以减记型资本工具为主,是一种创新型的资本补充工具,具体以何种形式发行仍有待与监管部门沟通。中国人民大学财政金融学院副院长赵锡军解释,此前商业银行在冲销坏账时,只能用自身的利润或者股东投入进行核销,减记型工具就是如果触发某些条件,可以用债权人的资金冲销坏账。
It is worth noting,The offering of the financing tools are mainly composed of type write-downs of capital tools,Is a kind of innovative capital supplement tools,Specific in what form issue has yet to communicate with regulators.China's zhao xijun, deputy dean of school of finance, renmin university,When commercial Banks after the write-off of bad,Can only use their own profit or shareholder to cancel after verification,Write-downs type tool is triggered if certain conditions,You can reverse the bad debt with creditors' funds.
此前国内银行发行的大部分次级债并没有减记或者转股条款,而是带有赎回条款,意味着一旦这类债券发生损失,首先承担风险的是股东。从今年起,被视为中国版巴塞尔协议的资本新规正式实施,之前商业银行发行的次级债都归为不合格的二级资本,银行新发行的非普通股新型资本工具,应包含减记条款或转股条款,一旦达到触发条件,该工具能立即减记或者转为普通股。触发条件包括商业银行核心一级资本充足率降至5.125%(或以下)等。
After most of the domestic Banks to issue subordinated debt is not the write-downs or convertible terms,But with a redemption provision,The loss means that once the bonds,Risk is the shareholders first.From this year,Is regarded as the Chinese version of Basel capital implemented new rules,Before all the commercial Banks to issue subordinated debt for unqualified tier 2 capital,New issue of common stock to a new bank capital,Should include writedowns terms or turn,Once reach the trigger condition,The tool will immediately write down or converted into common stock.Trigger conditions including the commercial bank's core tier one capital adequacy ratio fell to 5.125%(Or the following), etc..
通过商业银行资本工具的创新,在境内外发行一些合格资本工具,有助于其减轻发行普通股对我国资本市场的压力。“其实进行资本工具创新是不得已的做法,商业银行资产规模不断扩大、不良率反弹,意味着需要更多的资本金来补充这些缺口,但是发行普通股等方式令资本市场难以承受,只能通过资本工具创新补血。”赵锡军也坦言。
Through the innovation of commercial bank capital tool,Issued in domestic and overseas some qualified capital tool,Help ease the pressure on the shares on Chinese capital market."Actually for capital tool innovation is necessary,The commercial bank assets scale expands unceasingly/Defective rate rebound,Means that need more capital to complement these gaps,The manner but issuing common stock and other capital market,Only through a blood tonic capital tool innovation."Zhao xijun admitted.
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