本报记者 潘沩 整理报道 Our reporter Pan Wei sorting report

　　国务院发展研究中心（以下简称“国研中心”）金融所所长张承惠在估算了未来城镇化所需资金缺口、未来金融市场新增资金供给后指出，从理论上来说，城镇化的资金缺口，可由金融市场未来新增的资金供给来覆盖与弥补。但如果延续不改革现有投融资体制，资金需求方（目前主要是地方政府的融资平台）和供给方将难以匹配。

The development research center under the state council(Hereinafter referred to as the"The research center")Financial institute Zhang Chenghui in estimating the future urbanization needs funding gap/Financial markets after the new money supply points out that in the future,In theory,The urbanization of the funding gap,By financial markets increased the supply of funds to cover and make up for the future.But if not existing investment and financing system reform,Money demand(At present is mainly local government financing platform)And supplies will be difficult to match.

　　这与很多学者专家的观点并不相同。

This is not the same with many scholars and experts point of view.

　　简言之，未来金融市场不差钱，但城镇化的主体，能否以合适的利率融到所需规模和期限的资金？这是城镇化资金缺口的最大问题。

In a nutshell,Money in financial markets in the future,But the body of the urbanization,Whether with appropriate scale and term of cash needed to raise interest rates?This is the biggest shortfall of urbanization problems.

　　为此，张承惠主张：首先，在一些带有公益性质的投资领域进一步放开对市场准入的管制；其次，要改革现有的投资管理的方式，从重点控制项目转为重点控制地方政府的债务风险；同时，需要加快财税体制改革、调整中央与地方政府的财税关系等。

To do this,Zhang Chenghui claims:First of all,With public investment in some areas further liberalisation of the regulation on market access;The second,To reform the existing mode of investment management,From key control project to focus on local government debt risk control;At the same time,Need to speed up the reform of the fiscal and taxation systems/We must adjust the relationship between central and local government's fiscal and taxation, etc.

　　城镇化需要多少资金？ Urbanization needs much money?

　　2012年，中国的城镇化率约为52%，现在学界普遍估计，到2020年，这一数据将达到60%左右。即，未来八年，中国的城镇化率可能会提高8个百分点。

In 2012,,China's urbanization rate is about 52%,Now is general estimate,By 2020,This data will reach about 60%.That is,Over the next eight years,China's urbanization rate could be increased by 8%.

　　同时，大家公认的事实是，过去中国的城镇化率质量不高，主要表现为，过去中国的城镇化过程中，虽吸引了大量的农业人口，但这些进城的农民没有能够享受到和城市居民一样的福利和待遇。

At the same time,Everyone accepted the fact of the matter is,In the past China's urbanization rate is not high quality,Main show is,In the process of urbanization in China in the past,Has attracted a large number of agricultural population,But the farmer hasn't been able to enjoy the city and urban residents welfare and treatment.

　　因此，未来的新型城镇化进程中，除了要继续保持一定力度的基础设施投资以外，政府还要在公共服务方面补上过去的缺口。要实现基本公共服务对进城农民的全覆盖以及公共服务的均等化，而这所需要的资金量非常庞大。

so,In the new urbanization in the future,In addition to efforts to continue to maintain the infrastructure investment,The government also on public services to fill the gaps of the past.To achieve complete coverage of basic public services for farmers into the city and the equalization of public services,And this need financing volume is very large.

　　那么，所需的资金量到底是多少？发改委和其他研究机构也有一些测算，有的测算结果为30万亿，有的测算结果是50万亿-60万亿。

then,How much are the overall amount of capital needed?There are also some estimates the national development and reform commission and other research institutions,Some calculated results for 30 trillion,Some measuring results is 50 trillion - 60 trillion.

　　基本上，资金需求可以归入以下结构：一是，基础设施的投资需求；二是，社会公共服务的需求，包括农民市民化所带来的养老需求、低保需求、医疗需求以及教育需求；三是，对保障房的投资需求；四是，对过去城镇化建设过程中贷款的利息支付。

Basically,,Capital requirements can be classified as the following structure:One is the,Infrastructure investment demand;The second is,Public service demand,Brought by the urbanization of farmers including the pension requirements/Low demand/Medical demand and education requirement;The third is,The investment demand for housing;The fourth is,In the process of urbanization construction in the past loan interest payment.

　　从国际经验看，城镇化过程中，最重要的一个资金来源是财政资金。但财政现有的能力与城镇化未来的投资需求相比，中间有一个巨大的资金缺口。中国未来城镇化过程中仅靠财政肯定不行，而且对于地方政府来说，未来在资金方面的压力还会加大。其原因主要是未来十年中国经济增长速度会放缓，政府财政收入高速增长的好日子不再。

Look from the international experience,In the process of urbanization,One of the most important source of funds is the financial capital.But the existing ability compared with the urbanization investment demand in the future,There is a huge gap.In the process of China's future urbanization fiscal surely not alone,And for the local government,The future will also increase the pressure of funds.The main reason is the next ten years China's economic growth speed will slow,A day of government fiscal revenue growth is no longer.

　　金融市场不差钱 Money in financial markets

　　未来的八年里，金融市场的规模有没有能力、有没有可能弥补城镇化的这个资金缺口？

The next eight years,The size of the financial markets have the ability/Is it possible to make up for the urbanization of the funding gap?

　　首先看银行信贷。在2012年中国金融机构贷款余额、银行业金融机构贷款余额是将近66万亿，过去二十年中国贷款的年均增长率是17%左右，这是一个较高的数据。随着经济转型和金融转型的推进，未来金融市场的直接融资比重会增加，银行信贷为主的间接融资占比将持续下滑；同时受资本金等因素的约束，银行贷款的增速不会像过去增长的那么快。根据国研中心对未来经济增速的假设，并假定贷款增速按照年均1.5%的增速减缓，可测算出2013年到2020年这八年间，新增贷款近70万亿。其中如果有10%-15%用于城镇化建设，则从银行系统获得将近10万亿的信贷。

First of all, the bank credit.In 2012 Chinese financial institutions loan balance/Banking financial institutions loan balance is nearly 66 trillion,Over the past 20 years Chinese loan average annual growth rate is about 17%,This is a higher data.Along with the advancement of economic and financial transformation,The proportion of direct financing in financial markets will increase in the future,Bank credit is given priority to the indirect financing proportion will continue to decline;At the same time bound by factors such as capital,Bank loan growth is not as fast as past growth.According to the research center of future economic growth assumptions,And assumes that loan growth according to an annual 1.5% growth slowdown,Can measure the eight years from 2013 to 2020,Close to 70 trillion in new loans.If there is a 10% - 15% for urbanization construction,System for nearly 10 trillion credit from the bank.

　　其次看债券市场。2012年债券市场存量规模为26.3万亿，占GDP的比重为50.6%。其中，市政类的债券，包括城投债和中央政府代发的地方政府债，余额大概是3万多亿，占债券市场的比重为12%左右。由于大力发展资本市场是中国长期的战略，而与其他国家情况相比，中国债券市场占GDP的比重偏低，很多发达国家债券市场的规模占GDP的比重都超过100%（比如2010年美国是172%，日本是239%，韩国是114%）。因此假定未来八年，中国每年债券市场占GDP比重逐渐增加，到2020年这个比重达到60%-70%左右（应该说这是一个保守的估计），届时中国债券市场的余额将达到80万亿。

Second look at the bond market.Memory size is 26.3 trillion 2012 bond market,As a share of GDP is 50.6%.Among them,Municipal bonds,Including urban construction investment bonds and the central government undertakes to local government debt,The balance is about more than $30000,Accounted for the proportion of bond market about 12%.Due to vigorously develop the capital market is China's long-term strategy,But compared with other countries,China's bond market as a share of GDP is low,Many developed countries, the size of the bond market more than 100% of GDP(Such as the United States in 2010 was 172%,Japan is 239%,South Korea is 114%).Therefore assume that the next eight years,China's bond market gradually increased as a share of GDP every year,By 2020 the proportion of 60% - 60%(It should be said that this is a conservative estimate),The balance of China's bond market will reach 80 trillion.

　　再假定市政债的比重占债券市场总规模的比重仍然是12%，那未来八年，大概可从债券市场筹集40万亿-50万亿的资金。这40多万亿再加上将近7万亿-10万亿的银行贷款合计有50万亿，应该说覆盖城镇化的资金缺口是绰绰有余。

Suppose the proportion of municipal bonds accounted for 12% of the bond market the proportion of total scale is still,The next eight years,Are available from the bond market to raise about 40 trillion - 50 trillion.This more than 40 plus nearly 7 trillion combined with 50 trillion - 10 trillion of bank loans,It should be said that coverage urbanization funding gap is more than enough.

　　此外，还有发行股票的方式、运用保险公司资金以及其他形式的资金供给，所以缺口从理论上是可以覆盖的、可以弥补的。

In addition,And the way of issuing stock/Use of insurance company funds, and other forms of money supply,So the gap can be covered in theory/Can make up for the.

　　资金供求方匹配难题 Money supply and demand matching problem

　　但这并不意味着城镇化资金没有问题。张承惠认为，如果延续现有的投融资体制、机制，那么资金供求双方很难匹配。

But this does not mean that the urbanization money no problem.Zhang Chenghui think,If the continuation of the existing investment and financing system/mechanism,Then the money supply and demand both sides are hard to match.

　　首先，地方融资平台因被广泛认为风险偏高，受到银行监管部门严格的控制。去年底银监会等部委出台了严厉的463号文件（即《关于制止地方政府违法违规融资行为的通知》财预【2012】463号），有关部门还在考虑出台相应监管的细则。所以，在看得见的未来几年内，地方融资平台的融资能力很难迅速扩大。

First of all,Local financing platform is widely seen as riskier,Strict control by bank regulators.Late last year the China banking regulatory commission and other ministries issued strict file no. 463(That is[Concerning the curbing of illegal financing behavior of local government notice]CaiYu[2012]No. 463),Authorities in considering the relevant regulatory rules.so,In the visible in the next few years,Financing ability is difficult to rapidly expand local financing platform.

　　其次，市政债的地位也很尴尬。真正的市政债法律是禁止发行的。地方政府通过城投债这样一种比较扭曲的方式从债券市场获得资金也存在问题。现在是市场公认的高风险债券，2012年平均发行利率超过7%。而从国际的眼光来看，如果一个债券的利率超过7%，违约率就比较高了。

The second,And status of municipal bonds is very embarrassed.Real laws are barred from issuing municipal bonds.Local government debt through the city for such a more distorted way receive money from the bond market also has a problem.Now is the recognized market risky bonds,Average release rate of more than 7% in 2012.And from the international view,If a bond's interest rate more than 7%,The default rate is relatively high.

　　第三，如果地方政府延续现有的投资机制，投资冲动和盲目决策的问题得不到解决，就难以消除酿造财政风险和金融风险的基础性因素。此外，现有城市基础设施的投融资体制，在很多地方还是由政府控股的企业直接运作。对民间资本既不够重视，也没有创造良好的经营环境，很难吸引民间资本。

In the third,If the continuation of the existing investment mechanism of local government,Impulse and blind investment decision problem is not solved,It will be difficult to eliminate basic factors of financial risk and financial risk.In addition,The existing urban infrastructure investment and financing system,In many places still holding enterprises run directly by the government.Both insufficient attention to private capital,Also did not create a good business environment,It is difficult to attract private capital.

　　那么，在金融市场不差钱、目前地方投融资体系确与其不够匹配的情况下，未来中国城镇化过程中所需要的大量的资金问题如何解决？

then,Money in financial markets/There is not enough local investment and financing system is and its matching cases,The future in the process of urbanization in China need a lot of money how to solve the problem?

　　首先，张承惠主张在一些带有准公益性质的投资领域，地方政府要进一步地放开对市场准入的管制；在经营性的基础设施领域，政府完全可以通过和民间资本合作的方式来建设项目和提供服务。

First of all,Zhang Chenghui claims with quasi public investment in some areas,The local government to further restrictions on market access;In the field of business infrastructure,The government can through the way of cooperation with private capital to construction projects and to provide services.

　　为此，要改变过去政府喜欢自己来做事情的传统思维。全科医院、保健、高等教育、体育、金融等很多领域今后这些领域完全可以对民营资本放开，城市供水、供气、垃圾处理、污水处理等公用事业，也应该可以吸引民间资本来投入和运营。

To do this,To change the past government likes to do things the traditional thinking of himself.General hospital/Health care/Higher education/sports/Financial and other many areas in the future these areas can completely let go of private capital,Urban water supply/Gas supply/Garbage disposal/Sewage treatment and other utilities,Also should be able to attract private capital to invest and operate.

　　地方政府在尽可能避免直接进入基础设施投资建设的同时，需要担负起市场监管、保护消费者权益以及维护公平竞争的责任。从而建立起一个新的城市建设管理的模式。

Local government investment in as much as possible to avoid direct access to infrastructure construction at the same time,Need to take on market regulation/The responsibility of maintaining the fair competition and protect consumers' rights and interests.To build a new city construction and management mode.

　　其次，张承惠认为，要改革现有的投资管理的方式。现在的投资管理的方式实际上仍然是计划经济方式的延续，发改委名义上已将项目审批改成核准，但其实质还是审批，重点控制项目的规模、控制项目的建设进度。而未来投资管理的方式，则要从重点控制项目转为重点控制地方政府的债务风险。

The second,Zhang Chenghui think,To reform the existing mode of investment management.Investment management way, in fact, now is still the continuation of planned economy mode,In the name of the national development and reform commission has put the project examination and approval to approve,But the essence or the examination and approval,The size of the key control project/The construction of the control project progress.And the future investment management way,Will be from the key control project to focus on control of local government debt risk.

　　第三，她还认为，需要加快财税体制改革，调整中央与地方政府的财税关系。她在调研中发现，地方财权和事权严重失衡。因此，财税体制改革是一个大课题。

In the third,She also thinks,Need to speed up the reform of the fiscal and taxation systems,We must adjust the relationship between central and local government's fiscal and taxation.She found in the survey,Imbalance of local financial powers and responsibilities.so,The fiscal and taxation system reform is a big issue.

　　第四，建立规范的、风险可控的地方债券发行机制和二级市场。同时需要加快金融创新，包括建立规范、灵活、透明和标准的信贷二级流动市场，加快推进资产证券化；融资工具和方式的创新等。地方政府在实践中已经摸索出很多办法了，这里面创新的空间非常大。

In the fourth,Establish a specification/Risk control mechanism of local bond issue and the secondary market.At the same time need to speed up financial innovation,Including the specifications/flexible/Transparent and standard credit flow secondary market,Accelerate the asset securitization;Financing tools and ways of innovation, etc.Local governments have figured out many way in practice,Innovation in this space is very large.

　　总之，推进城镇化投融资机制创新需要政府有关部门转变观念，将过去“政府包揽一切”的做法改变为“只要市场能做的，政府就不做”。当然政府也不能一放了之，只有努力为各类投资者和金融机构创造一个良好的运营空间，将注意力真正放在强化市场监督和切实保障消费者利益上，才有可能摆脱快速城镇化所带来的融资困境，推动新型城镇化的健康发展。

All in all,Urbanization investment and financing mechanism innovation needs to the relevant government department to change ideas,Will the past"Government to do everything"The practice of change is zero"As long as the market can do,The government won't do".Of course, the government also can't put it,Only by working hard for all kinds of investors and financial institutions to create a good operating space,Really put your attention on your strengthen market supervision, and effectively protect the interests of consumers,Is likely to get rid of the financing dilemma brought by the rapid urbanization,Promote the healthy development of the new urbanization.

　　（本文中张承惠观点，不代表国研中心立场）

(This article Zhang Chenghui view,Do not represent guoyan center position)