根据麦肯锡全球研究院的统计预测，中国的城市人口，将于2030年突破10亿大关。周其仁也表示，在未来的5到10年内，中国城市人口将呈加速增长的态势。

According to McKinsey global institute statistics forecast,China's urban population,In 2030 will be hit the 1 billion mark.ZhouJiRen also said,In the next five to 10 years,China's urban population would be a accelerated growth trend.

　　然而即便如此，中国还是处于“工业化超前，城市化滞后”的状态。2010年，全世界城市化率为50.9%，工业占GDP的比重为26%，全球平均的城市化率/工业化率为1.95。这一比例在美国为4.11，法国与英国则分别为4.11与4.09，而中国的这一数据仅为1.09。

However, even if such,China is still in"Industrialization leading,Urbanization lag"state.In 2010,,The world urbanization rate was 50.9%,Industry accounted for the proportion of GDP is 26%,The global average urbanization rate/industrialization rate is 1.95.This ratio is 4.11 in the United States,France and Britain for 4.11 and 4.09 respectively,While China's this data is only 1.09.

　　周其仁谈到，城市化的相对滞后，使得国内需求远远满足不了国内的工业供应，因而国内的大量工业产品只能出口到欧美等地，“如此一来，金融风暴打击了西方的经济，中国的工业往往也是受害者”。

ZhouJiRen talked about,Urbanization relative lag,Make domestic demand far meet domestic industrial supply,Thus a large number of domestic industrial products can only exported to Europe and America etc,"so,Financial storm hit the western economy,China's industrial was often the victims".

大城市更利 City more and

降低收入差距 Reduce the income gap

　　周其仁在演讲中提到，目前中国的三大城市北京、上海和广州已经出现了明显的人口聚集趋势，但是程度上，与纽约东京，甚至是开罗等城市相比，还是远远不够。

ZhouJiRen in speech,At present China's three largest city Beijing/Shanghai and guangzhou has appeared the trend of population together,But the extent,Tokyo and New York,Even such as Cairo compared to the city,Or not enough.

　　根据调查，日本的大东京地区仅占其国土面积的4%，却集中了25%的人口，近40%的生产总值；开罗占埃及国土的0.5%，GDP超过全国一半。又如美国纽约，780平方公里的土地却集聚了1800万人口，创造了全美国10%的GDP。而中国的北京、上海、广州、天津四城市的GDP相加只有全国的一成多。

According to investigation,Japan's big Tokyo area accounted for only 4% of the area of the country,But concentrated 25% of the population,Nearly 40% of GDP;Cairo accounted for 0.5% of the land of Egypt,GDP more than half the nation.And as the New York,780 square kilometers of land is made up of a population of 18 million,Create a full 10% of America's GDP.While China's Beijing/Shanghai/guangzhou/Tianjin four city's GDP additive only the national more than ten percent.

　　“为什么在农村没人卖早点，城市却有人卖早点？”周其仁举例谈到，城市人口集聚，一个2000万人的城市，只要有1%的人买早点，便是一项很大的需求。而农村发散的人口显然是不能形成这种需求的。因而，人口向大城市聚集能够带来更为强大的内需。

"Why in the countryside nobody sell breakfast,But some city sell breakfast?"For example ZhouJiRen talked about,Urban population agglomeration,A city of 20 million people,As long as there is 1% of people buy breakfast,Is a big demand.While the rural divergence of the population is obviously not form this kind of demand.therefore,Population to cities gathered can bring more strong domestic demand.

　　他认为，大城市的高生产效率以及高需求，往往更能带动乡镇地区的发展，从而降低城乡收入差距。他谈到，从国外的经验来看，城市人口聚集程度极高的美国、日本等国家，城乡收入差距往往不大。

He thinks,Big cities of high production efficiency and high demand,More often can drive the development of villages and towns areas,In order to reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas.He talked about,The experience from abroad,The urban population aggregation degree high the United States/Japan and other countries,Income gap between the urban and rural often is not big.

　　他表示，降低城乡收入差距的真正含义，不是地区总收入的平等，而是人均收入的平等。因而“大”而“密”的城市化发展，更为符合中国的国情，更有利于降低城乡收入差距。

He said,To reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas of the real meaning,Not area gross income equality,But per capita income equality.therefore"big"and"close"Urbanization development,More consistent with China's national conditions,More conducive to reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas.

广州扩大地铁修建 Guangzhou metro built to expand

八九不离十错不了 Close not wrong

　　不少地方盲目追求城市化，没有结合具体情况在当地建设了许多城市设施，在演讲中，周其仁针对中国目前各地的一系列“造城运动”提出了自己的见解。“现在很多地方，进了城有乡村的特质，出了城有城市的特质。”他表示，这些现象在很大程度上造成了城乡一体化。

Many local blind pursuit of urbanization,No combined with concrete conditions in the local construction many urban facilities,In the speech,,ZhouJiRen in China a series of the country at present"Constructing cities"The author puts forward his own opinions."Now a lot of place,Into the city has the characteristics of country,Out of the city has the characteristics of the city."He said,These phenomena to a large extent caused the integration of urban and rural areas.

　　他谈到，由于这些“造城运动”的成品往往不能集聚足够的人口，使得土地城市化的速度快于人口城市化的速度，从而降低了城市的密度，“很多省城，甚至要将自己的面积翻一倍以上，这其实是一种反城市化”。

He talked about,Because these"Constructing cities"Finished product often cannot gather enough of the population,Make land urbanization speed faster than the speed of urbanization,In order to reduce the density of the city,"Many provincial capital,Even to their own area more than doubled,It is a kind of inverse urbanization".

　　因而他认为，随着人口的集聚，资源也更多地集中到大城市中来。“人口密度大的地方，资源使用后才能产生更高的回报”。他表示，诸如北上广等人口集聚趋势明显的大城市，则应该给予更多的城市投资，才能保证这些资源得到充分的利用。

So he thought,As the population agglomeration,Resources also more centralized to big cities to."Population density of the place,After using resources to produce higher returns".He said,Such as north and wide population concentration trend obvious big cities,It should give more urban investment,To ensure that these resources can be fully utilized.

　　他谈到，交通拥堵就有城市投资的需求，因而“广州扩大地铁修建，八九不离十错不了”。

He talked about,Traffic jams have city investment demand,therefore"Guangzhou metro built to expand,Close not wrong".

大城市病 City disease

要依靠人才来“医治” To rely on talent to"heal"

　　针对大城市的进一步发展，将带来严重的“大城市病”的疑问，周其仁表示，目前北上广的确出现了一些“大城市病”，诸如拥堵、人员混杂、犯罪基数大等。但是他认为，“不光大城市有病，小城市也有病。”他说：“用一句不是很严谨的话来说，有病的大城市，也比没有病的小城市强”。

According to the further development of big cities,Will bring serious"City disease"questions,ZhouJiRen said,At present there have been some north wide indeed"City disease",Such as congestion/Personnel mixed/Crimes such as the base.But he thinks,"Not only big cities sick,Small cities also sick."He said:"In one is not very precise words,Sick of the big cities,Also ratio not sick little city is strong".

　　他谈到，“大城市病”的产生，主要出于基础设施和公共服务不能满足由乡入城的移民，城乡隔绝造成的后遗症仍然存在以及对“密度”的管理缺乏经验。

He talked about,"City disease"generation,The main of infrastructure and public service can't satisfy the township into the city of immigrants,Urban and rural isolation caused by the sequela still exist and the"density"Management lack of experience.

　　因而他认为，要解决城市病，不宜通过“反城市化”，抵制外地人进入北上广的手段。真正的解决之道，是培养高密度空间的管理理念，以及培养大量的相关人才，以填补一直以来，中国城市管理人才的巨大缺口。文/记者徐静、李婧喧 通讯员吴才林

So he thought,To solve the city disease,Shoulds not be through the"Reverse urbanization",Boycott of the stranger into north wide means.The real solution,Is to develop high density space management concept,And cultivating a number of related personnel,Has been to fill,China's urban management personnel huge gap.Text/reporter XuJing/LiJing correspondent of WuCaiLin