上半年，中国的进口和出口增速均出现放缓，但美国对中国的贸易逆差却保持增长势头。金融危机以来，中国贸易顺差占GDP比重逐年下降，从2009的3.9%和2010年的3.0%，降至2011年的2.8%，中国对外年度贸易顺差收窄一半。与此相对应的是，自2008年以来，美国对华年度贸易逆差扩大了18%。2011年，中国对很多主要大宗商品出口国都存在贸易逆差，但为何对美国长期维持顺差？这其中恐怕美国的“出口管制”制度难辞其咎。

In the first half，China's import and export growth slowed all appear，But America's bilateral deficit with China but keep growing。Since the financial crisis，China's trade surplus GDP declined year by year，From 3.9% in 2009 and 3.0% in 2010，Fell to 2.8% in 2011，China's annual trade surplus narrow half。The flipside is，Since 2008，The annual trade deficit with China expanded 18%。2011 years，China for many main commodity export countries existing trade deficit，But why the United States has long maintained surplus to？This one I'm afraid of the United States“Export control”System NanCiJiJiu。

　　“出口管制” “Export control”

　　是中美贸易失衡症结 Is the crux of trade imbalances

　　按照传统的贸易理论，美国在技术上有优势，那么其生产和出口技术产品，在高技术方面应该处于顺差；中国的技术水平相对不高，那么其应进口技术产品。但事实上，中国从2002年以来在高技术产品上就一直保持着顺差地位，而且这种顺差还在不断地扩大。这充分表明，美国对华出口潜力没有完全发挥出来，原因到底何在？是因为美国的制造业丧失了全球竞争力吗？

According to the traditional trade theory，In the United States there is a technical advantage，Then the production and export of technology products，In the high technology should be in surplus；China's relative technical level is not high，So it should be imported technology products。But in fact，Since 2002 China in the high technology products will keep the surplus status，And the surplus will continue to expand。This fully show that，The United States export potential in China are not brought into full play，Reason what exactly？Because American manufacturing lost global competitiveness？

　　有研究表明，美国制造业的全球竞争力仍然很强，根据美国彼得森国际经济研究所访问学者霍华德·罗森的研究，全球统一关税制度下两位代码的98个行业中，在2004-2008年间，美国比较优势排名前25个产业的出口总额占出口总额80%，其中除钢铁和机动车之外的23个行业具有显著比较优势，而且这些行业大多属于高附加值行业，包括占美国出口总额的6%左右的科学设备（HTS90），占美国出口总额的12.5%的化学品、塑料及药品等，也包括附加值较低的谷物、油籽和棉花等农产品，不过它们占美国出口总额的比例较小。

Research has shown that，Global competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing remains strong，According to the peterson institute for international economics visiting scholars Howard rosenborg research，Global uniform tariffs system two code 98 industries，In 2004-2008，The top 25 a comparative advantage of total export industry total export of 80%，Among them in addition to steel and motor vehicle outside of the 23 industries have prominent comparative advantage，And most of these industries belong to high value-added industries，Including accounting for about 6% of American exports of scientific equipment（HTS90），The United States accounts for 12.5% of total export amount of chemicals、Plastic and pharmaceuticals，Also includes low added value of grain、Oilseeds and cotton, and other agricultural products，But they accounted for American exports less proportion of the total。

　　是因为中国市场不够开放吗？显然不是，因为自2000年以来，中国已经成为世界上最开放的发展中大国，开放程度越来越高，在很多方面已经接近或超过一些发达国家。中美两国存在已久的贸易不平衡问题的重要原因就是美国不合理的“出口管制”制度，是美国“出口管制”掣肘其对华出口增长。

Because the Chinese markets are not open？Obviously not，For since 2000，China has become the world's most open big developing countries，Opening degree more and more high，In many ways has been close to or more than other developed countries。China and the United States has existed for a long time the trade imbalance is the important reason for the United States is not reasonable“Export control”system，Is the“Export control”Given its export growth in China。

　　“出口管制” “Export control”

　　违背全球技术扩散规律 Against global technology diffusion rule

　　“出口管制”是美国维持全球霸权、保障国家安全、保持高技术垄断地位最重要的战略手段之一。美国现行出口管制体系源于冷战时期，旨在限制军需品、两用材料和技术的出口，几乎每年美国都推出一份长长的“出口管制”商品名单。美国对华高科技“出口管制”也是由来已久，从布什政府时期的制裁和管制到克林顿政府时期的接触与遏制，再到小布什政府时期从战略竞争对手转变为建设性合作，三任总统都曾动用过总统豁免权放松对华出口管制，但奥巴马却还未动用过这一权限。

“Export control”Is the United States to keep global hegemony、National security、Keep high technology monopoly position of one of the most important strategic means。The United States export control system in the cold war，Designed to limit munitions、The export of dual-use materials and technology，Almost every year the United States have launched a long“Export control”Commodity list。The high-tech in China“Export control”Is also has a long history，From the bush government period of sanctions and control of the Clinton administration to contact and curbed，To little bush government period from strategic rivals into constructive cooperation，Three President have used the President immunity to relax export control in China，But Obama but have not used this authority。

　　事实上，“出口管制”客观上无异于作茧自缚，不但限制了美国民用高技术产品的出口，而且严重影响了中美两国企业在高技术领域的合作，成为美国对华贸易逆差的原因之一。

In fact，“Export control”Have a objectively，Not only limit the civil high-tech products of export，And the two countries seriously influence the enterprise in the field of high technology cooperation，America's trade deficit with China as one of the reasons。

　　从美国对华出口结构变化的角度看，近10年来美国对华出口潜力没有完全发挥出来。由于高科技产品研发投入大，并且产品生命周期短，在全球市场一体化的形势下，要分摊研发成本，必须走大量出口的路线，提高产品销量，依靠规模化的海外市场获得与研发投入成正比的利润。中国正逐渐成为世界科技产品出口的巨大市场。商务部数据显示，2001年至2011年，中国进口高技术产品从560亿美元增至4630亿美元，年均增幅23.5%。同一时期自美进口的高技术产品，则由2001年占中国高技术产品进口总额的16.7%降到2011年的6.3%。

From us exports structure change point of view，In the recent 10 years the United States export potential in China are not brought into full play。Because of high-tech products r&d investment，And the product life cycle short，In the global market integration situation，To share the cost of research and development，Have to go a lot of export route，Improve product sales，Rely on the scale of the overseas market and obtain r&d input proportional to the profit。China is becoming the world science and technology products export of huge market。The ministry of commerce data shows，From 2001 to 2011，China's import high technology products from $56 billion to $463 billion，With an average annual growth of 23.5%。The same period since the beauty of high technology import products，By 2001, of China's high technology products of total imports 16.7% to 6.3% by 2011。

　　事实上，伴随着中国工业化进程的加速，中国正在逐步成为全球制造业基地，进口结构也随之发生变化，主要特点就是初级产品占进口总额的比例自1990年以来逐步提高，从当时的18%提高到2000年的21%，2008年进一步提高到32%；同期工业制成品的比例则从82%下降到2000年的79%，2008年进一步下降到68%。这也可以解释为什么美国农产品对华出口占世界农产品对华出口之比大幅上升，而工业制成品相应减少，因为中国对原材料的需求在增长，而对一般工业制成品的国外需求则在减少。

In fact，Along with China's industrialization process of speed，China is becoming a global manufacturing base，Import structure changes，The main characteristic is primary products accounted for the proportion of total imports since 1990 gradually improve，From then to 18% in 2000，2008 further increased from 32% to；In the same period the proportion of manufactured goods, from 82% to 79% in 2000，Further decreased to 68% in 2008。This may explain why the U.S. agricultural exports of agricultural exports of the world than rose，And manufactured goods less，Because of China's appetite for raw materials in growth，And for general industrial products in overseas demand is reduced。

　　随着中国人均收入的增长、消费结构的升级、生产模式的转变，对美国的资本设备和商业服务的需求会继续大幅增长。根据相关预测，未来10年内中国高科(600730,股吧)技市场的年增长率将达到20%-40%。如果美国放宽对华出口限制，维持在中国同类产品进口总额18.3%的市场份额，对华高科技产品出口就可达到600多亿美元。但由于美国限制高技术出口和技术转让，中国这一巨大的市场将让美国企业“可望而不可即”。

With China's per capita income growth、The consumption structure upgrade、The transformation of the mode of production，For American capital equipment and business service requirement will continue to increase。According to relevant forecast，The next 10 years China high-tech(600730,Shares it)Year of increase rate of market of technology will reach 20%-40%。If the United States affect China export restrictions，Maintain similar products in China's total imports 18.3% share of the market，China high-tech exports can reach more than 600 dollars。But because the United States limits exports of high technology and technology transfer，China the huge market will allow American companies“That is not”。

　　此外，出口管制会增加企业的合规成本、交易费用、不确定性和风险，往往会削弱本国企业的竞争优势，还会起到培养竞争者的作用，因而受到管制的产品需求往往会大幅减少，同时一些本有优势的产品则会变为劣势产品。因此，一国要想保持技术领先地位和产品的活力，必须加快成熟技术的转让，将更多精力投放到新技术研发上。对华高技术出口管制反而严重违背了高技术全球技术扩散的本质规律，看似限制的是中国，实质限制的是美国自己。

In addition，Export control will increase enterprise compliance costs、Transaction costs、Uncertainty and risk，Tend to weaken our country enterprise competitive advantage，Will also play a role of cultivating competitors，Thus regulated products demand will often is greatly reduced，While some have advantage of the products is a disadvantage products。so，One country to maintain leading position and product technology energy，Have to speed up the transfer of a mature technology，Will more energy on new technology research and development。High technology export to China control against the high technology instead of serious global technology diffusion of essential rule，Seemingly restrictions is China，Essence is the limit。

　　对于中国自身来讲，必须做好应对新贸易壁垒的战略准备，必须强化本国知识产权保护环境，逐渐扭转对国外高端技术的过度依赖，把战略的重点放在“苦练内功”，增强自主创新能力上。

For China's own terms，Must be prepared to deal with the new trade barriers to the strategy，Must strengthen its own intellectual property protection environment，Gradually to reverse the excessive dependence on foreign advanced technology，The focus of the strategy“Practicing skills”，Enhance the ability of independent innovation。