中国人民银行营业管理部

The people's bank of China business management department

　　卜国军

BuGuoJun

　　上半年，全球经济总体复苏乏力，下行压力增大。一季度经济形势总体比去年四季度有所好转，二季度欧洲主权债务危机趋于恶化，欧元区经济下行压力明显增大，美国和日本经济仍保持复苏势头，主要新兴经济体经济增长进一步减速。主要发达经济体维持低利率以支持经济复苏；新兴经济体随着通胀压力缓和，及时选择降息以稳定经济增长。

In the first half，The global economy overall recovery lack of power，Downward pressure increase。Quarter overall economic situation than last year four quarter better，In the second quarter of the European sovereign debt crisis tend to worse，The economy of the euro area downward pressure increased，The United States and Japan's economic recovery is still keep the momentum，Major emerging economies to further slowing economic growth。Major developed economies keep interest rates low to support the economic recovery；Emerging economies with inflation easing pressure，Choose to stability in time to cut interest rates of economic growth。

　　下半年主要经济体总体上仍将维持“宽货币，紧财政”的政策格局，欧债危机仍为全球经济复苏面临的主要风险，全球经济将延续不平衡复苏局面。

The second half of major economies in general will remain“Wide monetary，Tight fiscal”Policy pattern，The debt crisis for the global economic recovery is still facing the main risk，The global economy will continue not balanced recovery situation。

　　发达经济体 Developed economies

　　经济总体复苏乏力 General economic recovery lack of power

　　今年上半年，美国经济保持复苏势头，就业压力仍较大。GDP环比折年率增速在连升三个季度于上年第四季度达到3.0%后，今年第一季度虽回落至1.9%，但仍为近五个季度的第二高增速。工业总体产出指数（2007年为100）在4月份达到年内最高点97.38，个人消费支出环比折年率增速连续四个季度回升，今年第一季度达到2.5%。消费者信心指数逐月上升，在5月份达到2007年以来最高水平79.3，消费者信贷逐月增长。住房市场继续回暖，前5个月各月已开工的新建私人住宅折年数均超70万套，月均为72万套，大大高于去年的月均61万套；全美住宅建筑商协会（NAHB）住房市场指数在6月份升至29，为2007年5月以来最高。物价上涨压力减轻，5月份CPI同比增长1.7%，为2011年2月以来首次回落至2%以内，环比下降0.3%，为2010年6月以来首次下降。失业率在4月份降至2009年1月以来的最低水平8.1%后，5月份回升至8.2%，失业率仍明显高于此次国际金融危机爆发前的水平。

In the first half of this year，The American economy recovery keep momentum，The employment pressure still bigger。GDP growth at an annual rate in November fold even up three quarters of the fourth quarter to 3.0% in the previous year，In the first quarter of this year though dropped back to 1.9%，But still for nearly five quarters of the second high growth。Industry overall output index（2007 for 100）In April to achieve high 97.38 years，Personal consumption expenditures annulus comparing fold growth at an annual rate for four quarter to bounce back，In the first quarter of this year to 2.5%。The consumer confidence index rose from month to month，In the month of may to reach the highest level since 79.3，Consumer credit growth from month to month。The housing market continues to thaw，In the first five months of the new has commenced his month private residence years exceeds 700000 sets are broken，The average monthly for 720000 sets，Last year the average monthly of much higher than 610000 sets；The national association of home builders（NAHB）Housing market index rose in June 29，For the highest since May 2007。Rising prices pressure to reduce，CPI year-on-year growth of 1.7% in May，For the first time since February 2011 dropped back to 2%，Annulus comparing fell 0.3%，For the first time since June of 2010 decline。The unemployment rate fell to 2009 in April in January after the lowest since the 8.1%，May back up to 8.2%，The unemployment rate is still at the international financial crisis was higher than the level before the outbreak。

　　欧债危机有所恶化，欧元区经济下行压力增大。第二季度西班牙主权债务问题不断发酵，其国债收益率不断上升，6月份触及7.3%的历史新高，引发市场对欧债危机升级的担忧。今年第一季度欧元区GDP环比持平，未延续上年第四季度的下降势头。第二季度欧元区经济下行压力有所加大。4月份欧元区工业生产指数环比下降0.8%，为今年最大月度降幅；综合PMI1月份以来持续下降，5月和6月降至46，为2009年以来最低。物价上涨的压力减轻，5月份CPI同比上涨2.4%，为2011年3月以来最低，5月份CPI环比下降0.1%，为今年以来的第二次下降。欧元区经济少有的亮点是货物贸易今年以来持续顺差，对经济复苏起到重要的支撑作用，4月份顺差达到62亿美元。同时，经济不景气推动欧元区失业率不断走高，5月份升至11.1%的历史新高。

The debt crisis has worsened，The economy of the euro area downward pressure increased。The second quarter Spanish sovereign debt problems keep fermentation，The Treasury yields rising，Hit 7.3% in June, the historic highs，European debt crisis sparked worries about the upgrade。In the first quarter of this year the eurozone GDP annulus comparing flat，Not continue in the fourth quarter of last year down momentum。The second quarter the eurozone economy downward pressure increase。In April the eurozone industrial production index dropped by 0.8% month-on-month，The biggest monthly drop for this year；Comprehensive PMI1 since in continue to decline，May and June fell to 46，For 2009 years the lowest。The pressure of the rising prices ease，CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in May，For the lowest since March 2011，November CPI fell 0.1% in May，For the second time since this year of decline。The economy of the euro area is one of the few bright spot is trade in goods this year since last surplus，To support the economic recovery, played an important role，April surplus, to $6.2 billion。At the same time，To the eurozone economy rising unemployment high，Rose to 11.1% in May of a record high。

　　日本经济温和复苏，下行压力有所显现。第一季度实际GDP环比折年率为增长4.7%，高于上年第四季度的0.1%。第二季度经济则显现了明显的下行迹象，4月工业生产环比仅增长0.2%，5月工业生产环比则下滑3.1%；贸易逆差逐月增长，5月份达到9104亿日元。通缩压力有所缓解，前5个月CPI在同比上涨0.1-0.5%的区间内波动。失业率在波动中下降，5月份降至4.4%的年内最低水平。

Japan's economy moderate recovery，Downward pressure has revealed。The first quarter GDP annulus comparing actual annual rate of growth of 4.7% discount，In the fourth quarter of 0.1% higher than last year。The second quarter is the obvious economic appeared the downside signs，April industrial production annulus comparing rose by only 0.2%，May the annulus comparing industrial production fell 3.1%；Trade deficit increase from month to month，May reach 910.4 billion yen。Deflation pressure to ease，The first five months of the CPI rise compared to the 0.1-0.5% of the band。The unemployment rate in fluctuation in decline，Fall to 4.4% from in May the years minimum level。

　　主要新兴经济体 Major emerging economies

　　经济增速趋降 Economic growth is drop

　　巴西经济增长面临放缓压力。第一季度GDP指数环比下降3.2%，同比增长0.75%，同比增速从2010年以来逐季回落。GDP折年数逐月下降，5月份GDP折年数较2011年12月份下降2.4%。前4个月工业生产指数持续同比下降。货物贸易顺差大幅下降，前5个月顺差累计同比下降26.5%。失业率相对稳定，5月份失业率为5.8%，略低于去年约6%的总体水平。物价水平逐月走低，5月份广义消费者物价指数同比上涨4.99%，为2010年10月以来首次降至5%以下。

Brazil's economy slowing growth facing pressure。The first quarter GDP index dropped by 3.2% month-on-month，Year-on-year growth of 0.75%，Year-on-year growth since 2010 fall by season。Fold down years GDP from month to month，May fold is 2011 years GDP fell by 2.4% in December。The first 4 months for industrial production index year-on-year drop。Goods trade surplus plunged，The first five months of surplus accumulative total 26.5% year-on-year drop。Unemployment is stable，The unemployment rate is 5.8% in May，Slightly lower than last year, about 6% of the overall level。The price level down from month to month，May the generalized consumer price index rising 4.99% year-on-year，For the first time since October 2010 fell to below 5%。

　　俄罗斯经济运行相对平稳，通胀压力明显缓解。第一季度GDP同比增长4.9%，略高于上季度的4.8%。5月份综合PMI达到54.5的年内最高点。货物贸易持续顺差，前4个月累计顺差同比增长18.9%。失业率从1月份起持续下降，5月份降至5.4%，为此次国际金融危机爆发后的最低水平。物价水平持续走低，5月份CPI同比涨幅降至3.6%的历史低点。

Russia's economy relatively smooth operation，Inflation pressure significant relief。The first quarter GDP year-on-year growth of 4.9%，Slightly higher than the 4.8% last quarter。Comprehensive PMI in May 54.5 in its high point。Trade in goods last surplus，The first 4 months accumulative total surplus year-on-year growth of 18.9%。In January the unemployment rate from continue to decline，Fall to 5.4% from in May，For the international financial crisis after the minimum。Prices keep falling，CPI increase in May compared to 3.6%, historically low。

　　印度经济下行压力增大，并显现较大通胀压力。第一季度GDP同比增长5.61%，增幅为连续第四个季度下降。工业生产指数在前4个月中有三个月环比下降，其中4月份环比降幅达11.02%，为2011年5月份以来最大降幅。货物贸易持续逆差，前4个月累计逆差同比增长57.5%。经济下行的同时，消费价格指数却逐月走高，5月CPI同比上涨10.22%，较2011年12月份扩大3.73个百分点。

India's economy downward pressure increased，Appear larger and inflation pressures。The first quarter GDP year-on-year growth of 5.61%，For the fourth quarter growth rate of decline。Industrial production index in the first four months have three y/y decline，One annulus comparing drop of 11.02% in April，For 2011 years since the biggest drop in May。Trade in goods last deficit，The first 4 months accumulative total deficit year-on-year growth of 57.5%。Economy down at the same time，Consumer price index is going higher from month to month，May CPI rose 10.22% year-on-year，Is expanded by 3.73% in December 2011。

　　经济延续不平衡复苏局面 Economic recovery continued imbalance situation

　　展望下半年，主要经济体仍将维持“宽货币，紧财政”的政策格局，财政再平衡对经济复苏形成压力。欧元区重债国经济若能走上紧缩与增长并重的良性轨道，会对欧洲及世界经济复苏起到积极推动作用；欧债危机若恶化则会抑制世界经济复苏步伐，全球经济仍面临一定的去杠杆化压力，下半年全球经济仍将延续不平衡复苏的局面。

Looking to the second half of，Major economies will remain“Wide monetary，Tight fiscal”Policy pattern，Fiscal balance again to economic recovery form pressure。The euro zone ChongZhaiGuo economy if can tighten and growth to both the benign track，On European and world economic recovery have a positive role；The debt crisis worse will restrain if the world economic recovery pace，The global economy faces some pressure to leveraged，The second half of the global economy will still continue not balanced recovery situation。

　　主要发达经济体宏观政策将维持“紧财政，宽货币”格局。财政失衡使主要经济体采用相对紧缩的财政政策。如美国可能结束于今年底到期的减税政策，日本国会众议院通过了消费税增税法案，欧元区各成员国计划在2013年将财政赤字占国内生产总值比例降至3%。在财政再平衡的同时，主要发达经济体通过维持低利率来促进经济复苏，美联储和欧央行将继续维持成立以来的最低利率不变，日本将维持0-0.1%的超低利率水平不变，必要时主要经济体会推出进一步的量化宽松政策。

Major developed economies macro policy will remain“Tight fiscal，Wide monetary”pattern。Financial imbalances in major economies to use relative tightening fiscal policy。If the United States may end in expires after this season's tax cuts，Japan's parliament, the house of representatives passed a tax increase consumption tax bill，The eurozone member states in 2013 will plan fiscal deficit the gross domestic product (GDP) ratio reduced from 3% to。In fiscal balance again at the same time，Major developed economies through the keep interest rates low to boost economic recovery，The federal reserve and European central bank will keep interest rates unchanged since the foundation of the lowest，Japan will maintain 0-0.1% of ultra-low interest rates will remain unchanged，When necessary the main economic experience launch further quantitative easing。

　　新兴经济体将加大以货币政策支持经济稳定增长的力度。印度、中国分别于4月17日和6月7日先后宣布下调指标利率，均为三年来首次；上半年巴西4次降息至8.5%，达1998年以来最低水平，下半年随着经济下行压力加大和通胀缓解，新兴经济体在必要时会继续采取降息等措施以稳定经济增长。

Emerging economies will increase to monetary policy support the steady economic growth dynamics。India、China respectively on April 17, and June 7 has announced that target interest rate cut，All is for the first time in three years；Brazil four times in the first half to cut interest rates to 8.5%，To the lowest level since 1998，The second half with economic increase and ease the downward pressure on inflation，Emerging economies will continue to take necessary measures to cut interest rates to stable economic growth。

　　此外，世界经济面临下行压力，将延续不平衡复苏局面。4月份OECD综合领先指标为100.38，为连续第7个月回升。OECD国家GDP占全球三分之二，其经济总体向好将为世界经济复苏奠定坚实基础。4月份和5月份的摩根全球综合PMI连续下降，5月份降为52.1，预示世界经济复苏之路并不平坦。下半年，美国、日本将延续复苏势头，欧元区经济存在陷入衰退的可能，主要新兴经济体仍将保持高于发达经济体的经济增速。

In addition，The world economy is facing downward pressure，Will continue not balanced recovery situation。In April the leading indicators for comprehensive OECD 100.38，For a 7 months to bounce back。OECD countries account for two-thirds of global GDP，The overall economy is going well for the world economic recovery will lay solid foundation。In April and may of integrated global PMI continuous decline Morgan，Reduced to 52.1 in May，Indicates the world economy is not smooth the way to recovery。The second half，The United States、Japan will continue the recovery momentum，The eurozone economy exist in the decline of the possible，Major emerging economies will remain higher than developed economies of growth。

　　欧债危机能否妥善解决仍是世界经济复苏面临的重大风险。6月29日，欧盟峰会通过了“增长与就业契约”，推出促进增长的“一揽子”计划，同时宣布允许欧元区救助工具直接注资银行业并可以购买努力削减赤字和债务的国家的国债。这项突破性协议有利于促进经济增长，有效打破主权债务和银行业危机的“恶性循环”，对市场有非常明显的稳定作用。该协议若能执行则可对欧债危机的解决起到很好的“以时间换空间”的作用。若欧元区经济能走上增长和财政再平衡并重的良性轨道，将会有力促进全球经济复苏，否则将会严重抑制全球经济复苏进程。

The debt crisis can properly solve the world economic recovery is still facing the serious risk。June 29,，The European Union summit through the......“Growth and employment contract”，Launch promote growth“package”plan，Also announced that allow the eurozone assistance tools and can buy directly capital injection banking to cut the deficit and the debt of the national debt。The breakthrough agreement to promoting economic growth，Effective sovereign debt and break banking crisis“Vicious cycle”，To market have obvious stable effect。The agreement if can perform the European debt crisis can solve have very good“In time to change a space”role。If the eurozone economy growth and financial again into balance both the benign track，Will promote the global economic recovery，Or will seriously inhibiting global economic recovery process。

　　（本文仅为个人观点，与供职单位无关。）

（In this paper, only for personal point of view，Minister has nothing to do with the unit。）