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二、扩大投资的重点在于投资结构的优化--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-07-13
首先,中国经济表现出的问题,不仅是周期性的,更是结构性的。从理论上讲,现代经济增长本质上是一个结构问题。美国经济学家西蒙·库兹涅茨的研究结果已经充分表明:19世纪至20世纪,发达国家的经济增长与结构变动密切相关,现代经济增长已不仅仅是一个总量问题。如果不去分析和衡量生产结构中的变化,经济增长是难以理解的。从现实情况来看,中国经济在产业结构、需求结构、分配结构、融资结构、区域结构等诸多领域都存在着不同程度的结构扭曲,总量调控的效果极易受到不合理结构的制约而打折扣。
first,China's economic performance of a problem,Not only is cyclical,Is structural。In theory,The modern economic growth is in essence a structural problems。American economists simone kuznets research results have been fully indicate:19 and 20 century,The developed countries of the economic growth and structural change closely related,The modern economic growth has not only is a total problem。If not to analysis and measure the change in the production structure,Economic growth is difficult to understand。From the reality of the situation,China's economy in the industrial structure、Demand structure、Distribution structure、Financing structure、Regional structure and many other fields there are different levels of structure distortion,The effect of total amount control unreasonable structure susceptible to the restriction and the discount。
以目前信贷形势看,在固定资产投资中占比最大的制造业投资,由于整体生产能力过剩,且受到上年利润大幅滑坡的影响,企业投资上升动力不足,信贷需求显著减弱;对投资拉动作用明显的房地产及相关产业受调控政策和银行风险控制的影响,信贷资金难以进入。可以说,当前放贷难现象的出现,不仅存在信贷投放结构失衡的问题,也有信贷有效需求不足的问题。一定程度上表明经济问题不仅是出在总量上,即周期性的问题,更多是在结构层面上。
With current credit situation look,In fixed asset investment accounts for the largest manufacturing investment than,Because of the whole production capacity surplus,And last year by profits have the influence of the landslide,Business investment up underpowered,Credit demand significantly weakened;For the investment of pull function of real estate and relevant industry obviously by control policies and bank risk control effects,Credit capital is difficult to enter。Can say,The current lending the phenomenon of the difficult,Not only is there the credit on the problem of unbalanced structure,Also have credit problems of insufficient effective demand。A certain degree of economic problems that not only is out, in total,That is the problem of cyclical,More is in the structure level。
因此,如果我们拘泥于总量调控,那么必然会进一步强化不合理的经济结构和增长方式,从而付出更大的代价。同时,在国内分配结构、产业结构没有出现重大改变、居民收入支出预期尚不乐观的现实情况下,总量调控能否激活国内需求,也是颇值得商榷的。
so,If we get bogged down in the total amount control,So will further strengthen the economic structure unreasonable and growth mode,Thus the cost of pay more。At the same time,In domestic distribution structure、The industrial structure didn't appear big change、Income is not optimistic spending expected the reality of the situation,Total amount control can activate the domestic demand,Also have a worth discussing。
总之,当前中国经济的主要问题,就是如何能够在复杂多变的国内外局势下,争取相对稳定的环境以保持经济的稳定增长,为经济结构的顺利调整赢得更多的时间。可以讲,保持稳定较快增长是短期的主要矛盾,赢得更多的调整时间是矛盾的主要方面。所以,面对当前的经济问题,必须采取两手抓,既要调控总量,更要注重结构的优化调整。
In short,The main problems of the current Chinese economy,How can the is complex and changeable situation at home and abroad,For a relatively stable environment to maintain stable economic growth,For economic structure adjustment to win more time smoothly。Can speak,Keep stable and fast growth is the principal contradiction in the short term,The adjustment of the win more time is the main contradiction。so,Facing the current problems in the economy,Must take through,Both total control,Much more about the structure optimization and adjustment。
其次,投资结构不佳,投资效果系数低下。投资作为促进社会经济增长的“三大动力”中最有影响力的因素,对经济的发展和社会的进步起着重要的推动作用。合理的投资结构,必然带来满意的投资效果。投资是国民经济发展的“第一推动力”,如果投资结构不合理,投资效益低下,“第一推动力”的作用就难以发挥,致使经济发展后劲不足。
second,The investment structure not beautiful,Investment effect coefficient is low。Investment as promoting social economic growth“Three big power”The most influential factors in,The development of the economy and the progress of the society plays an important role。Reasonable investment structure,Must lead satisfactory investment effect。Investment is the development of national economy“The first driving force”,If the investment structure is not reasonable,Investment, lower benefit,“The first driving force”It will be difficult to play the role,The economic development in the future insufficient。
因为不同的产业在其形成和正常运转的资金投放要求上有着显著差异,它们在绝对投入水平近似的情况下,为经济社会发展直接创造的价值或带来的直接收益水平不尽相同,因而对不同的产业部门进行投资,客观上会得到不同的经济效益指标值。投资结构上的差异对于整个国民经济发展进程可能产生的潜在带动效应可以有很大的不同,由此可能形成不同的投资综合效益。投资分配格局,还会从技术角度显著影响到投资效益水平。通过投资过程引入生产过程的技术性资源的状况,会极大程度地决定一个部门、行业或企业的劳动生产力水平与竞争力,直接关系到投资回流速度的快慢及增值的多少。投资分配比例的不同,可以直接或间接地影响到投资总量的适度状态,进而决定投资的经济社会效益水平。投资在各个产业之间分配的格局,还会对自然生态环境产生一系列影响,进而决定着投资的生态效益。可以说,投资结构极大程度上决定着一国或地区的投资效益水平,投资结构不合理是投资效益低下的根本原因之一。
Because of the different industry in its formation and the normal operation of the capital requirements on has significant difference,They are in absolute investment level of approximate,For economic and social development directly creates value or bring direct benefits are not the same level,So for different sectors for investment,Objectively will get different economic benefit indexes。The differences between the investment structure for the entire national economy national economy development process possible potential driving effects can have very different,This may form of different investment comprehensive benefits。Investment the distribution pattern,Also from technical Angle significant influence to the benefit of investment level。Through the investment process is introduced into the production process of technical resources situation,Will dramatically decided to a department、Industry or enterprise labor productivity and competitiveness,Directly related to investment return rate of speed and appreciation of how much。Investment of different allocation proportion,Can directly or indirectly affect investment of the total amount of moderate state,And then the economic and social benefits to investment level。Investment in each industry distribution pattern between the,On the natural ecological environment caused a series of influence,And then decided to the ecological benefit of investment。Can say,The investment structure on the great degree of a country or region depends on the benefit of investment level,Investment unreasonable structure is the root cause of low investment efficiency of one。
投资具有供给和需求双重属性。人们常说的拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”中最有影响力的因素——投资,主要是需求属性,即通过投资需求能带动各种投资品行业的生产。必须指出,投资最重要的属性是生产属性,即通过投资形成新的生产和服务能力,这是经济可持续发展的主要动力之一。而在现实中,大量政府参与的投资项目往往更重视其需求属性,忽视其生产属性,或者打着生产属性的旗号追求需求属性的短期效果,这是造成大量无效投资和低效投资的主要原因。投资的生产属性能否高效地实现,需要宏观和微观两个层面共同努力,必须保证投资结构合理,即确保每个投资项目的产品、技术和空间布局都能适应市场竞争要求,才能获得满意的宏观投资效果。
Investment has dual property supply and demand。People often say drive economic growth“Three carriages”The most influential factors in-investment,Main is demand attributes,That is, through investment demand could bring various investment industry production。Must point out that it,The most important attributes of investment is the production of attributes,That is, through investment form new production and service ability,This is the sustainable development of economy is one of the main power。But in reality,A lot of government in investment projects often pay more attention to their needs attributes,Ignore its production attributes,Or under the banner of production attribute attributes of the demand for short-term effect,This is caused a lot of investment and low investment invalid the main reason。Investment in production attributes can be highly effective,Need to the macro and micro levels together,Must ensure that the investment structure is reasonable,Which is to ensure that each of the investment products、Technology and space layout can adapt to the market competition requirements,To obtain satisfactory macro investment effect。
投资结构合理主要包括两重含义,一是投资的空间布局合理,使资源的获取和产品的外运成本最低,生产的配套条件最好,使不同区域的居民能够享受相对公平的公共服务;二是投资的产业和产品结构合理,产品和技术都是相对先进、适用的,投资效益是有保障的。不过,目前判断投资结构合理与否的标准或依据无论是理论上还是实际中都比较模糊。笔者认为比较清晰的判别可以基于以下三方面:一是投资主体的投资职能是否是在充分考虑经济效益的情况下履行的,只要各类投资主体很好地履行了自己的投资职能,投资结构就是相对合理的;二是投资的综合效益,即投资效益不断提高,表明投资结构趋于合理;三是社会公平的实现,即城乡、区域、居民之间起点上的公平性不断提升,也是投资结构合理的体现。
The investment structure reasonable mainly includes two meanings,One is the space of the investment layout is reasonable,Make resources obtaining and product sinotrans lowest cost,Production of the necessary condition is the best,Make in different areas of the residents can enjoy relatively fair of public service;2 it is the investment of industrial structure and product is reasonable,Products and technology are relatively advanced、applicable,The benefit of investment is ensured。but,At present judgment investment structure reasonable or not or according to the standard of both theory and practice are fuzzy。The author thinks that clear discrimination can be based on the following three aspects:One is the main body of investment investment function is in full consideration of the economic benefit under the performance,As long as all kinds of the investment subject well fulfilled their investment function,The investment structure is relatively reasonable;2 it is the comprehensive benefit of investment,That is constantly improve the benefit of investment,Show that the investment structure more reasonable;3 it is the realization of social equity,That urban and rural、area、Residents starting point between the fairness of the rise,Is the embodiment of the investment structure reasonable。
目前,我国投资效率低的原因很多,主要有:一是在三次产业中,第三产业投资较之第一、第二产业所占比例仍然很低,这与大力发展第三产业、加快产业升级转型的大方向不匹配;二是一方面固定资产投资高速增长,一方面现有固定资产设备利用率不高,大量工业资本设备陈旧落后,且闲置率过高,说明投资的有效性不够;三是过分重视硬件设备投资,轻视教育和科研开发投资,使我国技术和人才跟不上产业升级和产业结构优化的要求;四是过于重视投资的需求属性,轻视投资的生产属性,对投资的可行性研究流于形式,造成固定资产投资的空间、产业布局不合理,同时,由于过于重视投资的需求属性,为了保GDP增速,急功近利,加大了投资的盲目性,造成投资综合效益低下;五是投资主体的投资职能定位尚不清晰,政府性投资过多地参与到了经营性建设领域,垄断性行业改革的进展不大。
At present,Our country investment efficiency low for many reasons,Main have:One is the three industries,Investment in the tertiary industry than the first、The second industry still accounts for very low,This and develop the third industry、To speed up the industrial upgrading transformation of the roads don't match;2 it is hand fixed asset investment growth,On the one hand the existing fixed assets equipment utilization rate is not high,A large industrial capital equipment behind The Times,And unemployment is too high,Of the effectiveness of the investment that is not enough;Three is too much attention to hardware equipment investment,Contempt education and scientific research and development investments,China technology and talent can't keep up with the upgrade of industry and the industrial structure optimization requirements;4 it is to attach too much importance to the needs of the investment properties,Contempt of the production of the investment properties,For the investment of feasibility study form now,Causes fixed assets investment of space、The industry layout is not reasonable,At the same time,Due to too much emphasis on the demand of investment properties,In order to protect GDP growth,quick,Increase the investment of blindness,Cause low comprehensive benefit of investment;Five is the main body of investment investment function orientation is not clear,Government investment too much involvement in business in the field of construction,Monopoly industries of the reform progress is not big。
统计数据显示,虽然全社会固定资产投资占GDP的比重不断攀升,但投资效果系数特别是以不变价计算的投资效果系数一直呈下降趋势,表明我国的投资效益十分低下且不断恶化。研究表明,我国在世界金融危机之后虽然扩大了投资的规模,提出了“四万亿”的投资计划,且得到了各地政府的积极响应,但事实上,金融危机以来绝大多数省份的投资效率都出现下降。同时,在提供公共服务方面虽然有所改善,但仍存在比较大的差距。
Statistics show that,Although the social fixed assets investment in GDP is rising,But investment effect coefficient especially to changeless investment effect coefficient calculation has been declining,Show that China's investment efficiency is very low and deteriorating。Research shows that,Our country in the world financial crisis after the investment scale expansion though,Put forward the“Four trillion”Investment plan,And get the governments around the world to respond positively,But in fact,Since the financial crisis most investment efficiency of all provinces to fall。At the same time,In providing public services although improved,But it still has large gap。
再次,投资结构调整是经济结构调整的基础。首先应考虑投资结构的调整问题。假使企业要向着产业链高端和技术含量更高的领域调整,那么,它要做的是向新的技术设备和研发投资,但同时继续保持其以往尚有盈利空间的传统产业和业务,或者削减转移已经亏损或微利的部门业务。无论是往高端领域开拓,还是把成本高的产业往其他地区转移,这都要投资才能实现这类结构性目标。
again,Investment structure adjustment of the economic structure adjustment is based。First consideration should be given to the investment structure adjustment problems。If the enterprise to industrial and technological content to high-end higher field adjustment,so,It will do is to new technology, equipment, and r&d investment,But at the same time continue its profit space there ever traditional industry and business,Or cut transfer has losses or profit-making business department。Whether to develop high-end field,Or the high cost of the industry to other regions,It will be investment to achieve this kind of structural goals。
产业结构形成和发展的基本前提是投资,社会资源在各产业部门之间的配置是通过投资来实现的。可以说,投资结构在很大程度上影响着产业结构,产业结构是由投资结构塑造出来,并由投资结构决定的。投资结构的动态发展是实现产业结构演进的最基本动因和手段。投资结构对产业结构的影响主要表现在以下几个方面:
The industrial structure of the form and development of the basic premise is investment,The social resources in each industry between departments configuration is through the investment to fulfill。Can say,The investment structure in a large extent influence the industrial structure,The industrial structure is created by the investment structure,And the investment structure of the decision。The investment structure dynamic development of industrial structure evolution is to realize the most basic reason and means。The investment structure the influence on the industrial structure mainly displays in the following respects:
投资结构通过市场需求结构影响产业结构。投资结构是构成市场需求结构的重大要素之一,投资总量在不同产业、部门间的分布将直接改变已有的产业结构格局。一方面,投资总量会在总体上影响生产投资品的产业。投资总量增长加快时,对投资品的需求就多,从而拉动生产投资品的产业发展;反之,如果投资总量下降,生产投资品的产业就会萎缩。另一方面,产业投资结构还会影响生产投资品的产业构成。因为不同产业的投资,其投资品需求具有较大差异,对生产投资品的各产业的拉动作用也不同。
The investment structure through the market demand structure influence industry structure。The investment structure is composed of market demand structure is one of the important elements,Total investment in different industries、The distribution among the departments directly of the existing industrial structure change pattern。On the one hand,Total investment in the overall effect of the production investment industry。Total investment growth speeded up,The demand for investment,To pull the industry development production investment;and,If the total investment decline,The production investment industries will atrophy。On the other hand,Industrial investment structure can also affect the production investment industry constitutes。Because different industry investment,The demand for investment has bigger difference,Production of various industry investment to pull function of different also。
投资结构通过市场资源供给影响产业结构。一方面,产业投资结构通过形成固定资产决定各产业的产出能力。固定资产在生产和使用过程中会逐渐损耗直至最后丧失效用,因此必须通过产业投资形成新的固定资产来补偿、替换被消耗掉的固定资产,即实现固定资产的再生产,这样才能保证原有的产出能力或进一步扩大产出能力。现存的各产业的固定资产和产出能力是过去产业投资分配的结果,而现在和未来的投资结构又决定着未来各产业的产出能力。另一方面,在投资带来的生产能力形成后,它将在供给方面影响产业结构的调整。这是因为产业结构不断优化的一个重要前提条件,就是代表先进发展方向的产业能够获得其发展所需的生产要素,投资结构将通过影响劳动力资源、资本资源和技术资源的供给,在一定程度上决定产业结构调整的进程和方向。
The investment structure through the market supply of resources influence industry structure。On the one hand,Industrial investment structure through the formation of fixed assets decide the industry output capacity。Fixed assets in the production and use of process will wear loss to the utility,So must through the industrial investment form new fixed assets to compensation、Replace the fixed assets is consumed,To achieve the reproduction of the fixed assets,So that we can guarantee the original output capacity or further expand output capacity。The existing each industry of fixed assets and output ability is the past industrial investment distribution results,And now and the future of the investment structure and future depends on the industry output capacity。On the other hand,In the investment of the ability to form production bring,It will supply affect the industrial structure。This is because of the continuous optimization of industrial structure is an important prerequisite,Is the direction of the development represents the advanced industry will obtain the development of production factors needed,The investment structure will through the influence of labor resources、Capital resources and technical resources supply,In a certain extent the process of the adjustment of industrial structure and direction。
投资结构优化是产业结构优化与升级的保证。一个国家经济发展的进程,不仅体现为总量的增长,更为重要的是经济结构的合理化与高级化。促进经济增长质量提高的根本动力在于科技进步和高、精、尖产业的发展,在这个过程中,投资结构的优化是产业结构优化与迅速升级的重要保证。因为,投资结构变化是产业结构变化的先导,产业结构的变化与辐射效应又是投资结构在动态中升级优化的保证,由此形成投资结构和产业结构的良性循环。
The investment structure optimization is the industrial structure optimization and upgrading of assurance。A national economic development process,For the growth of total amount not only embodies,More important is the economic structure and the rationalization of high grade。Promote economic growth quality improvement is the essential force of progress of science and technology and high、fine、The development of the industry, pointed,In this process,The investment structure optimization is the industrial structure optimization and upgrades quickly important guarantee。because,The investment structure change is the forerunner of changes in the industrial structure,The change of industrial structure and the radiation effect is investment in the dynamic structure in the optimization of the guarantee upgrade,In form the investment structure and industrial structure of virtuous cycle。
投资结构通过技术进步影响各产业间的关联。各产业之间的关联关系是由一定的技术水平决定的,技术进步带来的产品生产消耗的减少和效率的提高,会使产品生产过程中的生产要素及中间产品的投入下降或产生替代,使产品成本降低,产品价格下降,进而对这些产品的需求就会上升,该产业竞争力增强;相反,技术水平较低的产业,其产品需求就会相对降低。长此以往,各产业间的关联关系就会发生改变。
The investment structure through the technology progress influence the connections between different industries。The relationship between the industry is from a certain level of technology,Technical progress bringing products production consumption reduction and efficiency,Can make products in the process of production factors of production and intermediate products in the fall or produce alternative,Make the product cost reduction,Product prices to fall,And then the demand for these products will rise,The industry more competitive;instead,The low level of the technology industry,The product demand will be lower。In the long run,The relationship between the industry will change。
过去30年内,我国是世界上投资增长速度最快的国家,但是投资方向主要集中在生产、加工型领域,集中在增加产能上,巨大的产能投资必须要转型。在新形势下调整产业结构,不等于减少投资力度,而是要改变投资结构。
Over the past 30 years,China is the world's fastest-growing country investment,But investment direction mainly concentrated in the production、Processing field,Focus on an increase in capacity,The production capacity of the huge investment must transformation。In the new situation, to adjust the industrial structure,Not equal to reduce investment,But to change the investment structure。
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